General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2024)

[xposbrad]

0 prospects and for now only 1 bad contract (Berrios). Not a great spot for a new president/GM, but better than Shapiro hiring a new GM to try to put lipstick on a pig in 2025, and then a new president hired in 2026 being stuck paying Atkins and that new GM before he can even bring his own people in.

 

At this rate, I think Shapiro is the one that needs to go, so if Rogers lets him go after the season (they won't), then that might be the best course of action. Having a lame duck team president with no incentive to care about anything beyond 2025 on a team in the Jays current position is just a really bad situation.

 

It's not a good situation, there's no core, no prospects, no great contracts that could be flipped for stud prospects. The only thing they have is a high payroll. Shapiro, if he's pulling most of the strings, won't want to tear this all down. I really hope blue jays don't delay this longer, most of us are just getting older and don't want a bad aid that we know won't work.

[max silver]

Yeah, there wasn’t anything to indicate he was just fat. His dad was even fatter I believe. Or close

 

Huh? Prince Fielder wasn't forced to retire because he was fat. Try to keep up.

[connorp]

Huh? Prince Fielder wasn't forced to retire because he was fat. Try to keep up.

 

lol. You try to keep up. You’re arguing for me, not against me.

[connorp]

Eat my Shatkis decided to use lettering essentially calling me retarded bc I said Fielder had to retire for a degenerative condition and not for just being fat

[Eat My Shatkins]

Eat my Shatkis decided to use lettering essentially calling me retarded bc I said Fielder had to retire for a degenerative condition and not for just being fat

 

Uh, I'm sorry...who did what now?

[Carlos Danger]

Bassitt talked about one of the issues with the team being, “effort”. Blair & Barker are going off over it.

 

First time I have heard that. Not good..

 

The Ship is Sinking, play for your self!

[Barrelsandbombs]

[Doubleplay21]

Fans booing the Jays.

Fans have to keep that up to give Shapiro the boot.

[connorp]

Uh, I'm sorry...who did what now?

 

Metafour. Same thing. Probably a dual account.

[connorp]

My son, I’m not always proud of him, told me Seattle was hard after Vlad and he can deal with Bo, but if Vlad too, he may bail. He likes baseball in general, so probably will be easy switch. Who wants to root for the s*** jays and you calls talking about these “bring the lunch pail to work” guys like Clement, Schneider, and Hogwarts. I’ll stick to the Jays, just not follow as much. Sure there’s going to be a lot of fair weather fans bailing

[Stangstag]

My son, I’m not always proud of him, told me Seattle was hard after Vlad and he can deal with Bo, but if Vlad too, he may bail. He likes baseball in general, so probably will be easy switch. Who wants to root for the s*** jays and you calls talking about these “bring the lunch pail to work” guys like Clement, Schneider, and Hogwarts. I’ll stick to the Jays, just not follow as much. Sure there’s going to be a lot of fair weather fans bailing

 

Thanks for proving my point about Vlad and the casuals

[Spanky99]

Metafour. Same thing. Probably a dual account.

 

That's your game, cheat.

[connorp]

Thanks for proving my point about Vlad and the casuals

 

Well, I wouldn’t argue that. His value is definitely more than on the field imo

[max silver]

lol. You try to keep up. You’re arguing for me, not against me.

 

I think I legit missed that you actually agreed with a post I made. I suppose there's a first time for everything.

[connorp]

I think I legit missed that you actually agreed with a post I made. I suppose there's a first time for everything.

 

You agreed with me, Max. I’d rather chew on nails than agree with you.

[max silver]

You agreed with me, Max. I’d rather chew on nails than agree with you.

 

In that case you better change your stance on Fielder and blame his obesity for the early retirement.

[metafour]

Okay now go find all of the 1B/DH types that were #1 prospects and hit free agency at 27

 

There are different ways to screen for comps...

 

How much weight do you think that MLB teams are going to place on him being the "#1 prospect" 5+ seasons ago? That would be item #10 on a hypothetical list of 10 things they'd seriously consider as part of the decision making process.

 

Gabriel Moreno was the #1 prospect for a hot minute too - does this mean that his eventual FA contract is going to be longer than it otherwise would have been?

 

Eric Hosmer was 28 at the time of his signing and he was the #8 prospect at one point; he still didn't get a 10 year deal.

 

Vlad's age absolutely increases his odds of getting a 10+ year deal, but his odds are also simultaneously decreased due to his weight/body concerns and more importantly the fact that he hasn't shown offensive consistency. And like I said, his odds are absolutely also decreased by the position he plays. MLB teams are getting smarter, not dumber. The terms on 1B-only free agents have been getting shorter in recent years, not longer. There is also a reason why something like ~10 of the 27 total 10+ year contracts signed in MLB history have gone to Shortstops. It isn't because Shortstops were more likely to be 27 years old, or because of their prospect ranking.

 

There are only two players who landed 10+ year contracts as 1B-only players: Pujols and Votto. Both were hilariously more dominant hitters than Vlad currently is. Votto was coming off 5 straight seasons of 150+ wRC+ hitting, and two of those were 170+ wRC+ seasons. Pujols had literally already accumulated enough career WAR at the time of his 10 year contract to be a HoF lock. The guy had 8 career 7+ WAR seasons prior to him landing a 10 year deal.

 

But hey, Vlad is close to .900 OPS this season and he's going to be 27 and was a #1 prospect! 10-years, $350 mill is on lock boyos!

[connorp]

Hosmer and Moreno. You aren’t going down without a fight lol. Even if you have to throw dirt in the eyes and punch someone in the nuts.

 

What is so toxic about a 1b on a long term deal over paying some good/decent hitting SS for 35-40yo that projects to be maybe like an 85-90 wRC+ if not unplayable, bc he can fill in a position or two? You’d rather play guys like Schneider

[Jimcanuck]

Hosmer and Moreno. You aren’t going down without a fight lol. Even if you have to throw dirt in the eyes and punch someone in the nuts.

 

What is so toxic about a 1b on a long term deal over paying some good/decent hitting SS for 35-40yo that projects to be maybe like an 85-90 wRC+ if not unplayable, bc he can fill in a position or two? You’d rather play guys like Schneider

 

Nothing is toxic about a 1B. A SS is more valuable, all else being equal, because of positional scarcity. Everyone and their grandma can play 1B after a bit of practice, relatively few have the skill and athleticism to play SS effectively.

 

Simple supply and demand, meat.

[connorp]

Nothing is toxic about a 1B. A SS is more valuable, all else being equal, because of positional scarcity. Everyone and their grandma can play 1B after a bit of practice, relatively few have the skill and athleticism to play SS effectively.

 

Simple supply and demand, meat.

 

The context was about being afraid to sign a guy that plays 1b vs a guy that plays SS when they’re 37.

Actually the guys you’re signing for 1b is more likely to profile to either still be at 1b or DH.

The SS likely projects to be a subpar hitting utility man

[G-Snarls]

In 6 innings over 8 games Trevor Richards' ERA has gone from 2.44 to 4.83

[RobinThicc]

Vlad jrs ace up his sleeve are the Angels. They’ll be the team to do it.

[Jonn]

Vlad jrs ace up his sleeve are the Angels. They’ll be the team to do it.

 

I want O’Hoppe from them for sure.

[BTS]

In 6 innings over 8 games Trevor Richards' ERA has gone from 2.44 to 4.83

 

It's cool that basically every player the team is likely looking to trade has completely nuked their trade value.

[Governator]

I think the fact that there is a DH option in the NL opens more doors for vlad that many are forgetting when trying to compare similar deals of the past.

 

Where would Ohtani be for the Dodgers this season if this was 2021 or earlier? No matter how you slice it, the #1 DH in the game has a $70M AAV this season. What I'm saying is Vlad doesn't have to be a 150g+ 1B option for teams anymore. The moment Pujols was traded to LAA he was playing 30-50%+ less on the field and he only retired in STL in 2022 because of DH when he put up ridiculous numbers down the stretch.

 

Considering there are twice as many teams that use DH today than all the comparibles you guys are using, 1B deals are going to naturally get larger imo.

[Laika]

I think the fact that there is a DH option in the NL opens more doors for vlad that many are forgetting when trying to compare similar deals of the past.

 

Where would Ohtani be for the Dodgers this season if this was 2021 or earlier? No matter how you slice it, the #1 DH in the game has a $70M AAV this season. What I'm saying is Vlad doesn't have to be a 150g+ 1B option for teams anymore. The moment Pujols was traded to LAA he was playing 30-50%+ less on the field and he only retired in STL in 2022 because of DH when he put up ridiculous numbers down the stretch.

 

Considering there are twice as many teams that use DH today than all the comparibles you guys are using, 1B deals are going to naturally get larger imo.

 

And teams can also go the other way with Vlad.

 

What if Vlad is a 1B/DH/LF/3B?

 

Just an offensive weapon and loveable dude who can mash dingers and play all over the field.

[Governator]

And teams can also go the other way with Vlad.

 

What if Vlad is a 1B/DH/LF/3B?

 

Just an offensive weapon and loveable dude who can mash dingers and play all over the field.

 

 

I don't understand the point?

[Laika]

He has more sprint speed than most 1b

 

Teams may see him as more than a first baseman

 

Toronto should have him in LF already tbh

[metafour]

I think the fact that there is a DH option in the NL opens more doors for vlad that many are forgetting when trying to compare similar deals of the past.

 

Where would Ohtani be for the Dodgers this season if this was 2021 or earlier? No matter how you slice it, the #1 DH in the game has a $70M AAV this season. What I'm saying is Vlad doesn't have to be a 150g+ 1B option for teams anymore. The moment Pujols was traded to LAA he was playing 30-50%+ less on the field and he only retired in STL in 2022 because of DH when he put up ridiculous numbers down the stretch.

 

Considering there are twice as many teams that use DH today than all the comparibles you guys are using, 1B deals are going to naturally get larger imo.

 

Then why did Teoscar Hernandez, a guy who has now hit for 130+ wRC+ in 4 of the last 5 seasons, only manage to land a 1-year deal last season?

 

Why is Brandon Belt, who hit for a 138 wRC+ last season, sitting at home this year with no buyers?

 

Both of those guys can play DH on any team in the league.

 

You fail to realize that as soon as you say "this guy will play DH for me", the barometer for what is required out of the bat skyrockets before it becomes logically sound to commit a back-breaking term/AAV to that player. A 10-year, $300+ million contract on your payroll immediately strains your financial flexibility. It only begins to make sense to take on that type of contract if the 1B/DH player in question is a shoe-in 150+ wRC+ hitter year in and year our. Nobody is committing that to a "very good, sometimes elite" 1B/DH hitter. Why? Because there are lots of hitters available who I can stick at DH on a 1-3 year deal. Marcell Ozuna is signed to a 4-year, $65M deal. Teoscar signed for 1 year, $20M. Kyle Schwarber got 4 years, $79M at age 28/29. And here is the real kicker: as a ~25 year old, Yordan Alvarez signed a 6-year extension for just $115M. That is peanuts for a hitter of his caliber, and the guy was in his mid 20's.

 

You are also being facetious by bringing up Ohtani. He only plays DH because he has also been pitching (the value of which was also equated into his $70M AAV contract). But even if Ohtani was only a DH and never pitched again - he has been one of the ~3 best hitters in all of baseball over the past 4 seasons. So he falls into a unicorn category, which hopefully we're all smart enough to understand that Vlad Guerrero unfortunately hasn't even come close to proving he is also a part of.

Edited July 26, 2024 by metafour

[Krylian]

He has more sprint speed than most 1b

 

Teams may see him as more than a first baseman

 

Toronto should have him in LF already tbh

 

They really let him dictate where he'd play from early on. Right off the bat he said, "Juego en tercera base", cause he'd never say it in English.