General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2024)

[metafour]

Vlad's worth that. He'd be in his age 36 season in the last year of that deal. He's going to have some 155 to 170 wRC seasons in that contract.

 

He has had a total of 1 of those seasons in 6 career seasons played.

 

The reality is that even with him looking "fixed" recently, to guarantee anything like what you just tried to guarantee is beyond silly given his past history. Regardless of his natural talent, if his swing broke down so badly so easily before (like it did after 2021), what is to say that it won't happen again? If anything, he has shown the exact opposite of being a guy who "repeats his swing" without fail. It seems like any minor transgression or injury puts him into a massive risk of completely losing his bat path.

 

To pretend like this is anything but a major risk is foolish. No, 10 years $300 million is absolutely not a "no brainer" move LMAO. If you count this season, he has had 2 out of 6 career seasons with "elite hitting performance". $300 mill for that? Yes he has the talent to put up 6 more similar seasons; but he had the talent to do that in previous seasons as well and he didn't.

[connorp]

Riiight right and that’s why you hightailed it outta all leagues once you couldn’t cheat with 2 rosters anymore.

 

Stop thinking you’re smarter than everyone else, you’re probably mid-tier intelligence at best on this message board.

 

Maybe you guys think you’re smarter than the market. Do you think the team signing Bogey to a 10 year deal when he’s 30 is thinking he’s going to provide + defensive value when he’s 35-36? And how’s he going to be hitting?

 

The market is the market. Vlad is getting at least 10 years. If you don’t like it, find a corner to cry in and hope the Jays don’t pay it. Someone will.

[metafour]

The market is the market. Vlad is getting at least 10 years. If you don’t like it, find a corner to cry in and hope the Jays don’t pay it. Someone will.

 

Why don't you actually look at the market then?

 

The market is the market, and the last 1B to sign a 10 year deal as an UFA was Albert Pujols all the way back in 2012. Vlad Guerrero isn't a SS or an OF, so don't compare him to those players "in the market".

 

Since 2011 these are the longest contracts handed out to 1B:

 

Albert Pujols - 10 years (2012)

Prince Fielder - 9 years (2012)

Eric Hosmer - 8 years (2018)

Chris Davis - 7 years (2016)

Freddie Freeman - 6 years (2022)

 

So actually, the "market" would show you that it is VERY RARE for a 1B-only player to receive a 10 year deal. Pujols is an outlier as he was arguably the best hitter in baseball when he signed that deal.

 

The other thing the "market" shows you is that those 7+ year deals to 1B-only players all turned out to be horrific decisions for the signing team. Which is why the "market" has moved away from making those commitments. I don't know what "market" you think you are referring to; but it surely isn't the MLB free agent market. That market has become incredibly stingy for 1B-only players.

[connorp]

Why don't you actually look at the market then?

 

The market is the market, and the last 1B to sign a 10 year deal as an UFA was Albert Pujols all the way back in 2012. Vlad Guerrero isn't a SS or an OF, so don't compare him to those players "in the market".

 

Since 2011 these are the longest contracts handed out to 1B:

 

Albert Pujols - 10 years (2012)

Prince Fielder - 9 years (2012)

Eric Hosmer - 8 years (2018)

Chris Davis - 7 years (2016)

Freddie Freeman - 6 years (2022)

 

So actually, the "market" would show you that it is VERY RARE for a 1B-only player to receive a 10 year deal. Pujols is an outlier as he was arguably the best hitter in baseball when he signed that deal.

 

The other thing the "market" shows you is that those 7+ year deals to 1B-only players all turned out to be horrific decisions for the signing team. Which is why the "market" has moved away from making those commitments.

 

Terrible comps. Hosmer and Davis? Freeman was 32. Prince is a good comp but a decade ago and that was a rare degenerative thing that made it bad.

[connorp]

I actually wouldn’t be surprised if Vlad signs a 13 to 14 year deal. Teams are circumventing aav increase like nba and nfl by extending years that they consider a loss

[Laika]

You have to comp him to all those 1B (and Matt Olson) as well as some of the younger "stars" that hit FA at like 26/27 like Harper.

 

It's a really interesting case. His market could really fall anywhere on that spectrum. Wide range.

 

A team would be insane to guarantee him anything close to 10/$300 though

[connorp]

You have to comp him to all those 1B (and Matt Olson) as well as some of the younger "stars" that hit FA at like 26/27 like Harper.

 

It's a really interesting case. His market could really fall anywhere on that spectrum. Wide range.

 

A team would be insane to guarantee him anything close to 10/$300 though

 

Admittedly, his market isn’t set just yet. When I’m saying what I’m saying, I’m assuming he’s going to be .900 OPS. If he does the waffling thing, it’s obviously going to make it a different story

[connorp]

Olson profile is just completely different. He lacks the hit tool Vlad has.

[metafour]

Terrible comps. Hosmer and Davis? Freeman was 32. Prince is a good comp but a decade ago and that was a rare degenerative thing that made it bad.

 

Terrible comps? His market is other recent first basemen who signed as UFA's.

 

There is no "unified" free agent market in the MLB. It is all position specific.

 

I just gave you the list of all of the long-term guarantees given to players that play his position. It isn't a very long list, and there is a reason for that.

 

Like you said, if you don’t like it, find a corner to cry in because those are the actual facts.

 

And you are correct - Fielder is the best comparison, and he still didn't get 10 years. And teams will in fact look at how that Fielder contract played out, and they won't conclude that it doesn't count bEcAusE iT tUrnEd ouT to bE a RarE deGeNerAtiVe tHinG LOL. Was it a rare degenerative thing for him to be a fat tub of lard?

[connorp]

Terrible comps? His market is other recent first basemen who signed as UFA's.

 

There is no "unified" free agent market in the MLB. It is all position specific.

 

I just gave you the list of all of the long-term guarantees given to players that play his position. It isn't a very long list, and there is a reason for that.

 

Like you said, if you don’t like it, find a corner to cry in because those are the actual facts.

 

And you are correct - Fielder is the best comparison, and he still didn't get 10 years. And teams will in fact look at how that Fielder contract played out, and they won't conclude that it doesn't count bEcAusE iT tUrnEd ouT to bE a RarE deGeNerAtiVe tHinG LOL. Was it a rare degenerative thing for him to be a fat tub of lard?

 

Bro, Fielder was 12 years ago. 9 years and that was completely different market. Teams are giving 13 years deals to avoid the higher aav. Do some critical thinking. Even if a team wants Vlad for 7 years of value, they’ll likely give him 10 to spread it out. Teams aren’t giving 10+ year deal assuming the guy will be great the whole time

[connorp]

It’s like, ok I’m going to give Vlad 7/300 but I’ll sign him for 11/300

[connorp]

Again, I’ll say in this thread too, I only defend Vlad in times like these. When he’s just average at the plate, my opinion changes quickly. He has to close out well before FA

[Laika]

Terrible comps? His market is other recent first basemen who signed as UFA's.

 

There is no "unified" free agent market in the MLB. It is all position specific.

 

I just gave you the list of all of the long-term guarantees given to players that play his position. It isn't a very long list, and there is a reason for that.

 

Like you said, if you don’t like it, find a corner to cry in because those are the actual facts.

 

And you are correct - Fielder is the best comparison, and he still didn't get 10 years. And teams will in fact look at how that Fielder contract played out, and they won't conclude that it doesn't count bEcAusE iT tUrnEd ouT to bE a RarE deGeNerAtiVe tHinG LOL. Was it a rare degenerative thing for him to be a fat tub of lard?

 

Okay now go find all of the 1B/DH types that were #1 prospects and hit free agency at 27

 

There are different ways to screen for comps...

[connorp]

Okay now go find all of the 1B/DH types that were #1 prospects and hit free agency at 27

 

There are different ways to screen for comps...

 

I don’t know how to post memes, but I wish I could post that one with Batman where we become best friends

[Barrelsandbombs]

From Zwelling

 

I will say that, from the various conversations that I've had recently, Ross was very much in charge of the draft. Ross is very much in charge of the deadline. Nothing has changed about his involvements in these very high leverage decisions that the club is making at this time of year.

 

And I also haven't gotten the impression that he's going to be let go at the end of the season. And if anything, if I was betting, and this is my opinion now, this is just me saying if I had to wager, I would bet that Ross Atkins is going to be the Blue Jays GM in 2025.

 

https://www.sportsnet.ca/podcasts/at-the-letters/on-deadline/

[BTS]

From Zwelling

 

 

 

https://www.sportsnet.ca/podcasts/at-the-letters/on-deadline/

 

If Ross is back in 2025 I’m moving firmly into the Fire Shapiro camp.

 

Ross as been on the job almost a decade. The team is a luxury tax team 9 games under 0.500 with a league worst farm system. It’s completely unacceptable.

[glory]

As I mentioned in another thread, with Shapiro only having a year left on his deal, if he hasn't already agreed to some sort of extension, then he shouldn't be hiring the new GM. So if Shapiro is back in 2025 minus an agreement to stay longer, then unfortunately it makes more sense to just keep Atkins for one more year. Then if 2025 ends up like many of us are expecting it to, then they can get rid of both of them and start fresh.

[Stangstag]

From Zwelling

 

 

 

https://www.sportsnet.ca/podcasts/at-the-letters/on-deadline/

 

f***ing gross

[Stangstag]

As I mentioned in another thread, with Shapiro only having a year left on his deal, if he hasn't already agreed to some sort of extension, then he shouldn't be hiring the new GM. So if Shapiro is back in 2025 minus an agreement to stay longer, then unfortunately it makes more sense to just keep Atkins for one more year. Then if 2025 ends up like many of us are expecting it to, then they can get rid of both of them and start fresh.

 

Get rid of both and start fresh with 0 good prospects and a bunch of bad contracts

 

Fun fun

[Laika]

From Zwelling

 

https://www.sportsnet.ca/podcasts/at-the-letters/on-deadline/

 

When executives get fired it tends to be sort of sudden.

 

It's not like people in the organization tend to know the dude is a dead man walking. That leads to massive dysfunction.

 

I would not read too much into this.

[glory]

Get rid of both and start fresh with 0 good prospects and a bunch of bad contracts

 

Fun fun

 

0 prospects and for now only 1 bad contract (Berrios). Not a great spot for a new president/GM, but better than Shapiro hiring a new GM to try to put lipstick on a pig in 2025, and then a new president hired in 2026 being stuck paying Atkins and that new GM before he can even bring his own people in.

 

At this rate, I think Shapiro is the one that needs to go, so if Rogers lets him go after the season (they won't), then that might be the best course of action. Having a lame duck team president with no incentive to care about anything beyond 2025 on a team in the Jays current position is just a really bad situation.

[John_Havok]

As I mentioned in another thread, with Shapiro only having a year left on his deal, if he hasn't already agreed to some sort of extension, then he shouldn't be hiring the new GM. So if Shapiro is back in 2025 minus an agreement to stay longer, then unfortunately it makes more sense to just keep Atkins for one more year. Then if 2025 ends up like many of us are expecting it to, then they can get rid of both of them and start fresh.

 

It certainly feels like their fates are intertwined given that both of their contracts are up at the same time.

[Carlos Danger]

If Ross is back in 2025 I’m moving firmly into the Fire Shapiro camp.

 

Ross as been on the job almost a decade. The team is a luxury tax team 9 games under 0.500 with a league worst farm system. It’s completely unacceptable.

 

I have always said you are a smart man BTS.

[John_Havok]

Get rid of both and start fresh with 0 good prospects and a bunch of bad contracts

 

Fun fun

 

Isnt that how most GMs start?

[Brownie19]

0 prospects and for now only 1 bad contract (Berrios). Not a great spot for a new president/GM, but better than Shapiro hiring a new GM to try to put lipstick on a pig in 2025, and then a new president hired in 2026 being stuck paying Atkins and that new GM before he can even bring his own people in.

 

At this rate, I think Shapiro is the one that needs to go, so if Rogers lets him go after the season (they won't), then that might be the best course of action. Having a lame duck team president with no incentive to care about anything beyond 2025 on a team in the Jays current position is just a really bad situation.

 

Isn't this where Shapiro and Atkins essentially started? I mean 2016 was fun, but once that year was over, there wasn't much for them to work with either. As John noted - that's how most new GM's start. Only a few walk into a gold mine like AA did in Atlanta.

Edited July 25, 2024 by Brownie19

[Spanky99]

Did you ever have a record over 0.500 in BORED?

 

Connor just cheats, mate. Sells all his picks/prospects for the best team he can get, wins and quits when it's time for a retool/rebuild . How he was ever let back in is beyond me. He went as far as trading assets with himself and those teams still suck. He can't win properly. Terrible.

[max silver]

Terrible comps? His market is other recent first basemen who signed as UFA's.

 

There is no "unified" free agent market in the MLB. It is all position specific.

 

I just gave you the list of all of the long-term guarantees given to players that play his position. It isn't a very long list, and there is a reason for that.

 

Like you said, if you don’t like it, find a corner to cry in because those are the actual facts.

 

And you are correct - Fielder is the best comparison, and he still didn't get 10 years. And teams will in fact look at how that Fielder contract played out, and they won't conclude that it doesn't count bEcAusE iT tUrnEd ouT to bE a RarE deGeNerAtiVe tHinG LOL. Was it a rare degenerative thing for him to be a fat tub of lard?

 

Fielder had a degenerative spine. He was also morbidly obese. It's entirely possible for these things to exist simultaneously and not be directly related to each other. This would be like blaming Vlad's history of wrist issues on the fact that he's a heavyset player instead of being someone that swings a bat hundreds if not thousands of times a week for a living. Prince played a highly rotational sport and had a rather violent swing, both of which are things that would have greatly exacerbated a degenerative spinal condition.

[BigCecil]

As I mentioned in another thread, with Shapiro only having a year left on his deal, if he hasn't already agreed to some sort of extension, then he shouldn't be hiring the new GM. So if Shapiro is back in 2025 minus an agreement to stay longer, then unfortunately it makes more sense to just keep Atkins for one more year. Then if 2025 ends up like many of us are expecting it to, then they can get rid of both of them and start fresh.

 

I don't think Rogers rolls with that. Unless fans continue to tune into TV and hit the games. I've got friends whose whole fam is at todays game from Cal. They texted me they left when it hit 7-0. But attendance generally is hanging in there so far.

 

"Start fresh" with an empty farm doesn't seem reasonably quick or appealing lol. Rogers will continue to spend for foreseeable future to protect their investments, but the reality is unless they stupidly overpay for Bo and/or Vlad, or they move them as they should in the offseason, they are gone anyway in the blink of any eye.

 

Right now the public indications of direction(less) is half pregnant. The worst. Going to be interesting the next few months.

[connorp]

Fielder had a degenerative spine. He was also morbidly obese. It's entirely possible for these things to exist simultaneously and not be directly related to each other. This would be like blaming Vlad's history of wrist issues on the fact that he's a heavyset player instead of being someone that swings a bat hundreds if not thousands of times a week for a living. Prince played a highly rotational sport and had a rather violent swing, both of which are things that would have greatly exacerbated a degenerative spinal condition.

 

Yeah, there wasn’t anything to indicate he was just fat. His dad was even fatter I believe. Or close

[PitaBaby]

Do NOT disrespect Cecil Fielder.

 

Oh wait, Prince? Carry on.