General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2024)

[Laika]

sooo what does the top of the 2025 draft look like anyway?

 

are we going to get some bum at #5 again like Austin Martin or will it be more like the next year where players 3-6 were all good? Or the year prior, 2019, where most of the top 9 players were legit.

[Krylian]

sooo what does the top of the 2025 draft look like anyway?

 

are we going to get some bum at #5 again like Austin Martin or will it be more like the next year where players 3-6 were all good? Or the year prior, 2019, where most of the top 9 players were legit.

 

Depends. How do you feel about this management team and scouting department?

[Laika]

Depends. How do you feel about this management team and scouting department?

 

pretty good

 

i think ross is the kind of loser who learns from his mistakes

[Krylian]

pretty good

 

i think ross is the kind of loser who learns from his mistakes

 

Then they should be able to find a great talent if they're picking in that 4-7 range.

 

However, if he's the other kind of loser....

[jaysblue]

Bo's value is certainly down, but not near the extent some of you folks think.

 

You should really consider taking Carlos Correa in the LOD.

[Spanky99]

You should really consider taking Carlos Correa in the LOD.

 

And who else are you sending me?

[BigCecil]

Like him or not David Samson interesting on Blair and Barker today. Spoke on Jays:

 

- 2024 is over. Its now about the deadline and off season.

 

- Loves Vlad and his Dad but Vlad will want a 10 year deal, and to be paid as one of the Top 3 offensive players in the game. No way he over performs the deal = Bad investment. We have to pass on both Bo and Vlad. Move them out.

 

- Change the window, it doesn't have to be a rebuild. Not a tank situation. More of a re tool. The ownership has the $.

 

- Move pieces in and out and change the window dressing. Not a fire sale.

 

- We always got more value for pitchers at the deadline and bats in the off season. Lots of buyers in the off season for big bat potential.

 

- Owners fired his GM. He didn't really want to. Doesn't just look at record of the team. Thats more about changing the Mgr.

 

- Went into why so few firings of FO people mid season.

 

Anyway...interesting perspective FWIW.

[Spanky99]

Like him or not David Samson interesting on Blair and Barker today. Spoke on Jays:

 

- 2024 is over. Its now about the deadline and off season.

 

- Loves Vlad and his Dad but Vlad will want a 10 year deal, and to be paid as one of the Top 3 offensive players in the game. No way he over performs the deal = Bad investment. We have to pass on both Bo and Vlad. Move them out.

 

- Change the window, it doesn't have to be a rebuild. Not a tank situation. More of a re tool. The ownership has the $.

 

- Move pieces in and out and change the window dressing. Not a fire sale.

 

- We always got more value for pitchers at the deadline and bats in the off season. Lots of buyers in the off season for big bat potential.

 

- Owners fired his GM. He didn't really want to. Doesn't just look at record of the team. Thats more about changing the Mgr.

 

- Went into why so few firings of FO people mid season.

 

Anyway...interesting perspective FWIW.

 

Thanks, just started it, lol.

 

PS: Is David Samson gay? Not that it matters, just wondering?

 

ETA: Great interview, quite candid.

Edited July 4, 2024 by Spanky99

[hanton]

test Pearson in very high leverage situations between now and the tdl, with that new 2 seamer maybe he could take over the closers role - then sell high

[Jimcanuck]

Thanks, just started it, lol.

 

PS: Is David Samson gay? Not that it matters, just wondering?

 

Whether he is or isn't, I doubt he'd be interested.

[BatFlip]

test Pearson in very high leverage situations between now and the tdl, with that new 2 seamer maybe he could take over the closers role - then sell high

 

sell sell sell

[jaysblue]

The Jays don't need to go scorch earth. They could still contend in 2025 if they actually do something in the offseason that upgrades the club. Atkins needs to be pro-active!

 

Keep Vlad and Bo through the trade deadline. Can always revisit trading them both in the offseason when teams might be looking for a potential stud player. If not, keep them around in 2025 and hope their bats explode during contract years!

 

Ownership does have the money, so they can re-tool for 2025. They'll need a couple things however: a top starter, some bullpen pieces, two big bats.

 

If the Jays had the trade pieces, trade for outfielder Brent Rooker. If not, then sign some FA's.

 

C Jansen/Kirk

1B Guerrero Jr

2B Horwitz

SS Bichette

3B Bregman

LF Hernandez

CF Varsho

RF Santander

DH Springer/ or anyone FFS

 

BN Kiner-Falefa

BN Schneider

BN Clement

BN Kirk/Jansen

 

If they can't sign Bregman, then roll with Kiner-Falefa at 3B again and strengthen the bench.

 

Rotation:

 

Gausman

Burnes/Bieber/Fried

Bassitt

Berrios

Rodriguez/Manoah

 

Sign a FA who could start and pitch out of the pen like Jake Junis.

 

The Postseason in 2025 will be easy to make.

[BigCecil]

Thanks, just started it, lol.

 

PS: Is David Samson gay? Not that it matters, just wondering?

 

ETA: Great interview, quite candid.

 

Long term wife and 2 kids. Don’t think so.

[jaysblue]

And who else are you sending me?

 

Lol you tell me.

[Spanky99]

Long term wife and 2 kids. Don’t think so.

 

TTO seems to be the issue with me in MLB. Won't work. Pitchers are too good and ahead of the game.

[Spanky99]

Lol you tell me.

 

You don't have one, my point.

[Spanky99]

Whether he is or isn't, I doubt he'd be interested.

 

Well played, Jim, ya knob jockey.

[jaysblue]

You don't have one, my point.

 

You should be so lucky that I offered you Correa in a deal for Bichette lol.

[hanton]

The Jays don't need to go scorch earth. They could still contend in 2025 if they actually do something in the offseason that upgrades the club. Atkins needs to be pro-active!

 

Keep Vlad and Bo through the trade deadline. Can always revisit trading them both in the offseason when teams might be looking for a potential stud player. If not, keep them around in 2025 and hope their bats explode during contract years!

 

Ownership does have the money, so they can re-tool for 2025. They'll need a couple things however: a top starter, some bullpen pieces, two big bats.

 

If the Jays had the trade pieces, trade for outfielder Brent Rooker. If not, then sign some FA's.

 

C Jansen/Kirk

1B Guerrero Jr

2B Horwitz

SS Bichette

3B Bregman

LF Hernandez

CF Varsho

RF Santander

DH Springer/ or anyone FFS

 

BN Kiner-Falefa

BN Schneider

BN Clement

BN Kirk/Jansen

 

If they can't sign Bregman, then roll with Kiner-Falefa at 3B again and strengthen the bench.

 

Rotation:

 

Gausman

Burnes/Bieber/Fried

Bassitt

Berrios

Rodriguez/Manoah

 

Sign a FA who could start and pitch out of the pen like Jake Junis.

 

The Postseason in 2025 will be easy to make.

 

I like some of these moves, have you done the math on the contracts? 2025 $130K not including arb, fa signings or extensions(if any), so looks like about $100M (at the high end) to spend in total, Vlady might be around ~$22M arb which leaves $78M

[Omar]

Like him or not David Samson interesting on Blair and Barker today. Spoke on Jays:

 

- 2024 is over. Its now about the deadline and off season.

 

- Loves Vlad and his Dad but Vlad will want a 10 year deal, and to be paid as one of the Top 3 offensive players in the game. No way he over performs the deal = Bad investment. We have to pass on both Bo and Vlad. Move them out.

 

- Change the window, it doesn't have to be a rebuild. Not a tank situation. More of a re tool. The ownership has the $.

 

- Move pieces in and out and change the window dressing. Not a fire sale.

 

- We always got more value for pitchers at the deadline and bats in the off season. Lots of buyers in the off season for big bat potential.

 

- Owners fired his GM. He didn't really want to. Doesn't just look at record of the team. Thats more about changing the Mgr.

 

- Went into why so few firings of FO people mid season.

 

Anyway...interesting perspective FWIW.

 

From the above I can safely conclude that David Samson reads the BJMB.

[Omar]

The Jays don't need to go scorch earth. They could still contend in 2025 if they actually do something in the offseason that upgrades the club. Atkins needs to be pro-active!

 

Keep Vlad and Bo through the trade deadline. Can always revisit trading them both in the offseason when teams might be looking for a potential stud player. If not, keep them around in 2025 and hope their bats explode during contract years!

 

Ownership does have the money, so they can re-tool for 2025. They'll need a couple things however: a top starter, some bullpen pieces, two big bats.

 

If the Jays had the trade pieces, trade for outfielder Brent Rooker. If not, then sign some FA's.

 

C Jansen/Kirk

1B Guerrero Jr

2B Horwitz

SS Bichette

3B Bregman

LF Hernandez

CF Varsho

RF Santander

DH Springer/ or anyone FFS

 

BN Kiner-Falefa

BN Schneider

BN Clement

BN Kirk/Jansen

 

If they can't sign Bregman, then roll with Kiner-Falefa at 3B again and strengthen the bench.

 

Rotation:

 

Gausman

Burnes/Bieber/Fried

Bassitt

Berrios

Rodriguez/Manoah

 

Sign a FA who could start and pitch out of the pen like Jake Junis.

 

The Postseason in 2025 will be easy to make.

 

Yeah, everyone (the smarter ones here) agree that we don't need to have a fire sale. That's not the issue. The issue is who will implement the re-tooling of this team? Until that is settled, everything else is just background noise. Ed Rogers, you know what to do. Get it done!

[connorp]

sooo what does the top of the 2025 draft look like anyway?

 

are we going to get some bum at #5 again like Austin Martin or will it be more like the next year where players 3-6 were all good? Or the year prior, 2019, where most of the top 9 players were legit.

 

It’s like you threw up the Bat signal here. You guys likely remember my days as perhaps the best drafter in the board fantasy leagues, but now I’ve become a bit of a mlb draft connoisseur, if you will..

 

2024 is up next and there happens to a great target that will be there at 20. A franchise player albeit with some risk. Iowa RHP Brody Brecht. Yes, I was able to add him to my new team, and yes, you have it here first he would become the Jays answer to Gausman for the long term. No need to pay attention here, as this will one day be bumped when appropriate.

[jaysblue]

I like some of these moves, have you done the math on the contracts? 2025 $130K not including arb, fa signings or extensions(if any), so looks like about $100M (at the high end) to spend in total, Vlady might be around ~$22M arb which leaves $78M

 

Haha this was just off the top of my head.

 

Not sure how much Santander or Hernandez get as FA's but given what we saw the market was for corner OF bats last offseason, at most they probably get what Soler did if they sign a multi-year deal.

 

Bregman will probably cost a bit, but after a down season who knows what his market is like. Don't really need to sign Bregman since IKF has looked solid when he's been on the field. Ideally, having IKF as a super utility guy would be perfect. Just need to add offense at other places in the lineup.

 

Burnes will cost a lot for sure but if you can get him for something similar to what Gausman signed for a couple years ago, would do it. Might be able to sign Fried on a 4-5 year deal worth $20M AAV or so. You might be able to sign Bieber to a short term deal with opt outs because he might want to rebuild value and test the market again.

[Olerud363]

One thing that is funny about this year is the offense problems are a good part batting average related...

 

I think at the beginning of the year the eggheads did the math, and (correctly) figured out that a 'no power bro' team, with 150 homers (low total for this age) but a .265 team batting average would score enough runs, and they would have. A .265 .330 .420 team would score like 775 runs a great total these days.

 

Problem is the team is actually hitting .235 and most every player has a lower batting average then you would expect.

 

Don Mattingly's hitting tips, that the eggheads thought would result in a team with a good batting average, have instead led to the team under-performing their batting average.

 

Like Varsho should hit .240 but is .198. Schneider .250 but .210. Bo .300 but .240.

 

It's weird. Maybe Don Mattingly's hitting tips don't work in 2024. I don't think anyone expected Varsho to hit .300

 

But you think maybe, Varsho hit's .220 last year, but with a real focus on batting average and contact and Don Mattingly's hitting tips he can hit .240... but instead he hits .198.

 

So I think from a nerd perspective the idea that "if" a "no power bro" team could hit .265 it would work, is correct.

 

However something about the pitching, the defense, the scouting, the game prep, makes it hard to hit for average now and focusing on hitting for average makes it worse somehow.

[John_Havok]

One thing that is funny about this year is the offense problems are a good part batting average related...

 

I think at the beginning of the year the eggheads did the math, and (correctly) figured out that a 'no power bro' team, with 150 homers (low total for this age) but a .265 team batting average would score enough runs, and they would have. A .265 .330 .420 team would score like 775 runs a great total these days.

 

Problem is the team is actually hitting .235 and most every player has a lower batting average then you would expect.

 

Don Mattingly's hitting tips, that the eggheads thought would result in a team with a good batting average, have instead led to the team under-performing their batting average.

 

Like Varsho should hit .240 but is .198. Schneider .250 but .210. Bo .300 but .240.

 

It's weird. Maybe Don Mattingly's hitting tips don't work in 2024. I don't think anyone expected Varsho to hit .300

 

But you think maybe, Varsho hit's .220 last year, but with a real focus on batting average and contact and Don Mattingly's hitting tips he can hit .240... but instead he hits .198.

 

So I think from a nerd perspective the idea that "if" a "no power bro" team could hit .265 it would work, is correct.

 

However something about the pitching, the defense, the scouting, the game prep, makes it hard to hit for average now and focusing on hitting for average makes it worse somehow.

 

Trying to hit for average at the expense of power is stupid. All analytics depts know this. I highly doubt the Jays are actively pursuing this approach, they're just ending up there because they don't seem to know how to communicate effectively to their players.

 

I can see why the belief is there though since they're entire player development plan seems to be taking guys with good contact ability and trying to teach them to hit for power. Obviously it's not working... so they're really left with a few options to explain it. Either it's a stupid way to try and develop guys to begin with, or they just really suck at teaching power.

[wilko]

Long term wife and 2 kids. Don’t think so.

 

Beard family. Dude's gay for sure. I have a friend that had a wife, 2 kids and lived in the closet until he was 38. Now he's getting dicked down every weekend.

[AMS528]

Little interview with Horwitz on hitting. Always find these interesting to see what different guys focus in on.

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/spencer-horwitz-talks-hitting/

 

Laurila: Changing direction, which of your numbers do you most care about?

 

Horwitz: “I’d say a combination of a few. I think line drive percentage is really important. I think chase rate is really important. I’d say hard-hit rate is important. Those three things. If you’re hitting the ball hard on a line and swinging at the pitches you should be swinging at, I think you’re a really good hitter.”

[Olerud363]

Trying to hit for average at the expense of power is stupid. All analytics depts know this. I highly doubt the Jays are actively pursuing this approach, they're just ending up there because they don't seem to know how to communicate effectively to their players.

 

That statement is insane. Every analytics department knows how runs are scored. Hitting for average at the expense of power is a good trade off as long as it succeeds.

 

If you try to hit .275 as a team, and you do. Very good. Problem comes in if you try to hit for average and hit .235 (as Jays have done).

 

Just look at Blue Teams throughout the years... don't you watch the game? It's not black and white of course, the very best teams hit for power and average.

 

2010 Blue Jays 257 homers 750 runs... 2005 Blue Jays 136 homers 775 runs...

2021 Blue Jays 262 homers 846 runs.. 1993 Blue Jays 159 homers 847 runs...

 

2019 Blue Jays 247 homers 706 runs... 2023 Blue Jays 186 homers 746 runs

 

2023 Blue Jays scored more runs than many teams that hit for more power. And Jays correctly thought if they hit for even a better average, they'd get even more runs even while sacrificing more power.

 

The problems is they are hitting .235.

[Olerud363]

That statement is insane. Every analytics department knows how runs are scored. Hitting for average at the expense of power is a good trade off as long as it succeeds.

 

It is better to hit for average than power (within reason). This is 100% true. There is no denying this. If you deny this you deny math, logic, sanity and the future of humanity.

 

Matt Carpenter in 2013 had 11 homers

By 2015 he increased that to 28 homers

 

He was better with a higher average and 11 homers....

 

Now if you are saying it is no longer possible to hit .320 and if you try you will fail and hit .250 that is a different thing.... like no one can hit for average anymore so might as well hit .250 with 30 homers... that is different though.

 

Saying .250 29 homers .330 on base is better than .320 11 homers .390 on base is insanity and anti-science waka doodle stuff.

 

Saying guys can't .320 anymore because of the analytics and pitching patterns but could hit .250 and run into 28 homers... that is a little different.

[Olerud363]

It is better to hit for average than power (within reason). This is 100% true. There is no denying this. If you deny this you deny math, logic, sanity and the future of humanity.

 

Matt Carpenter in 2013 had 11 homers

By 2015 he increased that to 28 homers

 

He was better with a higher average and 11 homers....

On the same note!

 

I was looking for matched sets like one guy hit's 40 homers one guy 10 they play similar spots on the defensive spectrum and have about the same WAR.

 

2017 Joe Mauer vs. 2018 Kris Davis

 

One hit 7 homers, one hit 48

One played first one played left

One hit .300 one hit .247

 

One had 2.9 WAR one had 2.8 WAR

 

What is better the 48 homer left fielder or the 7 homer 1st basemen?

 

It's pretty close

 

"no power bro!"

 

"hitting for power is always better than hitting for power bro!"

 

(Kris Davis actually won 2.8 WAR to 2.7 WAR, but they are basically even and a good example of two configurations of guys on low end of D-spectrum position wise, one extreme low power and one extreme high power which are suprisingly equal in WAR).