General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2024)

[L54]

The thing with Vladdy is over the course of the next two off seasons who is available via FA to add long term. The obvious answer is Soto but that’s like a 5% shot

 

Who else would you want to kickstart a rebuild around? Yes Vlad was cheeks last year but he’s rebounded well so far and is on a 3 WAR pace. He’s been a durable so far and I think his athleticism is underrated for as big as he is

 

Kyle Tucker is also a FA but he will certainly cost more than Vlad

 

If you’re not going to sign someone to build around you might as well go scorched earth. And there’s no way Atkins survives the entire contract of an extended Vlad, so at some point there will be new hitting dudes around

[L54]

I’d be fine with a Vlad extension but trying to find a number that makes sense for both sides is very difficult given his history.

 

It really is. Opt outs for sure. I think youre looking at 7/140M as the starting point with an opt out after year 3 or 4

[L54]

Even though he's been incredibly frustrating to watch, he's likely to at least provide better value than Hosmer I think on that kind of deal. His career wRC+ is basically Hosmer's career high.

 

He's managed to get himself back to being an average sprinter (and the 6th fastest 1B!), so the concern that he's going to be so slow and fat he'll be completely done in a few years is less likely. The caveat there is that even though he's an average sprinter, he is the worst baserunner possible anyways.

 

True, I guess I just meant in a super aggressive way. Hard to say

 

I didn’t realize either of those about his speed but it doesn’t surprise me. I do think he’s underrated athletically. His baseball IQ is just low and he makes bad decisions

 

He’s only 25 though. Makes me think he can become better with age as he becomes more mature. And I’ve criticized Vlad for being immature before

[Stangstag]

The thing with Vladdy is over the course of the next two off seasons who is available via FA to add long term. The obvious answer is Soto but that’s like a 5% shot

 

Who else would you want to kickstart a rebuild around? Yes Vlad was cheeks last year but he’s rebounded well so far and is on a 3 WAR pace. He’s been a durable so far and I think his athleticism is underrated for as big as he is

 

Kyle Tucker is also a FA but he will certainly cost more than Vlad

 

If you’re not going to sign someone to build around you might as well go scorched earth. And there’s no way Atkins survives the entire contract of an extended Vlad, so at some point there will be new hitting dudes around

 

Good/above-average 1B are a dime a dozen in free agency. If Vlad played any other position (OF, 2B, 3B) i’d be more on board with signing him. I just don’t see the need to extend a 1B that might not be more than a 3-4 WAR guy.

[L54]

Good/above-average 1B are a dime a dozen in free agency. If Vlad played any other position (OF, 2B, 3B) i’d be more on board with signing him. I just don’t see the need to extend a 1B that might not be more than a 3-4 WAR guy.

 

3-4 WAR is worth like 30M

 

You have to pay somebody at some point. Signing Soto to give you 7 WAR for 50M isn’t a whole lot different than signing Vlad to give you 3 WAR for 25M

[Carlos Danger]

3-4 WAR is worth like 30M

 

You have to pay somebody at some point. Signing Soto to give you 7 WAR for 50M isn’t a whole lot different than signing Vlad to give you 3 WAR for 25M

 

Except one hits singles, the other HRs. One I am worried about his knees or back in 5 years, the other one I am not. One brings WS cred to the team, the other Romper Room.

[Stangstag]

3-4 WAR is worth like 30M

 

You have to pay somebody at some point. Signing Soto to give you 7 WAR for 50M isn’t a whole lot different than signing Vlad to give you 3 WAR for 25M

 

Sure but im saying 3-4 WAR is likely Vlad’s ceiling. He could very well be a 2 WAR per year kinda guy. Maybe one more 5-6 WAR season in him. If the bat falls off, he provides 0 defensive value. And 1B is a pretty easy position to fill.

 

Im not gambling more than 100 million on Vlad being a consistent 3-4 WAR player

[BCZ]

Y’all talking about resigning vlad after a couple weeks of high babip is comical. Just a few months ago it was all about bo - oh how the tide turns on the SSS

[jaysblue]

I don't think Vlad deserves that kind of money and commitment right now from the Blue Jays. Let's see how he finishes this season and how he does next season.

 

I'm not sure if we'll ever see another 5-6 WAR season from Vladdy and if we do maybe its only once. It's possible but its very unlikely. I would rather roll the dice on Soto or Tucker or Bregman if we're talking about 30M AAV + per season. Vladdy 2022 season and 3-4 WAR is most likely his ceiling. He can easily be replaced. You don't want to lock up that type of player to a 7 or 8 year deal.

 

He's 25 now, but in 2026 when it's the first year of his new deal, he'll be 27.

[xposbrad]

The thing with Vladdy is over the course of the next two off seasons who is available via FA to add long term. The obvious answer is Soto but that’s like a 5% shot

 

Who else would you want to kickstart a rebuild around? Yes Vlad was cheeks last year but he’s rebounded well so far and is on a 3 WAR pace. He’s been a durable so far and I think his athleticism is underrated for as big as he is

 

Kyle Tucker is also a FA but he will certainly cost more than Vlad

 

If you’re not going to sign someone to build around you might as well go scorched earth. And there’s no way Atkins survives the entire contract of an extended Vlad, so at some point there will be new hitting dudes around

 

2 years? It’s going to take a lot longer than that to rebuild the minors. They won’t need to be adding a big name for at least 3-4 years.

[BigCecil]

3-4 WAR is worth like 30M

 

You have to pay somebody at some point. Signing Soto to give you 7 WAR for 50M isn’t a whole lot different than signing Vlad to give you 3 WAR for 25M

 

Depend on a lot of factors and market at time. FA Cost/WAR median cratered last off season to 4.4M. 3-4 WAR is $15-20M AAV which is his Arb cost. Even though WAR takes 1B only player into account I think it does decrease his attractiveness. Still I’d do 6/120 ish with Vlad.

[Brownie19]

Castro Bros (@castro_bros) • Instagram reel

WWW.INSTAGRAM.COM

---

361 likes, 2 comments - castro_bros on May 26, 2024: "GEORGE SPRINGER NEEDS TO CLEAN HIS MECHANICS ‼️👀 #baseballlife #baseballisback #baseballseason #baseballboys #baseballplays #baseballlove #baseballfan #hitting #hittingdrills #hittingpost #hittingcoach #hittingmechanics #hittingbombs #hittinggoals #hittinginstructor #texasbaseball #californiabaseball #miami #florida #oakley #lululemon #nike #addidas #mlb #browardcounty #fortlauderdale #bocaraton #bocaratonflorida".

 

Little breakdown of Springers mechanics. He isn't striding like he used to at all. Wonder if the injuries have impacted his flexibility to the point he can't get back to that position.

[BigCecil]

2 years? It’s going to take a lot longer than that to rebuild the minors. They won’t need to be adding a big name for at least 3-4 years.

 

Likely. The cupboard is relatively bare on impact talent in the farm. Ricky is not ready for a rotation and Orelvis is still a bit of a wildcard on position and power translating to the majors consistently. There are some other interesting pieces but not like a Jackson Holliday level prospect is locked and loaded to come up (and even his debut was rough).

[BTS]

2 years? It’s going to take a lot longer than that to rebuild the minors. They won’t need to be adding a big name for at least 3-4 years.

 

In a city like Toronto, with ownership willing to spend to the tax, I don't think competent management should be concerned about contention cycles. The goal should be a development system that produces a constant pipeline of talent. And they shouldn't have to wait for the system to be completely flush with talent before spending some money and targeting a wild card spot. A couple down years to clear the remaining vet contracts from the books should be the only punted years.

[BigCecil]

In a city like Toronto, with ownership willing to spend to the tax, I don't think competent management should be concerned about contention cycles. The goal should be a development system that produces a constant pipeline of talent. And they shouldn't have to wait for the system to be completely flush with talent before spending some money and targeting a wild card spot. A couple down years to clear the remaining vet contracts from the books should be the only punted years.

 

There is a way through this to improving the product without waiting too long. It starts with new clear eyed GM leadership evaluating the changes and surgery required.

 

Ownership has little choice but to spend. Jays TV advertising and the hundreds of millions in renos is core Rogers integration strategy.

[AMS528]

One genuine large area of concern for me right now is that the team has been bad enough that pieces are going to be dealt. Obviously this needs to happen, the problem is with Atkins at the helm I am skeptical that we are going to make deals for the right pieces.

 

Atkins has a terrible drafting record, and as someone showed a couple of weeks ago, his initial deals for prospects with a rebuilding Jays team were absolutely awful (Billy McKinley, Brandon Drury, Derek Fisher etc). Not a lot of hope that he's going to start figuring out which players are going to become solid minor leaguers.

 

Atkins is decent at knowing the prospects he drafts aren't very good and dealing them away for decent major league talent, and (mostly) signing free agents. This has limited value for a team that needs to rebuild.

 

The (potential) Bo and Vlad trades are going to be what set up the next Jays era, and he should probably not have been the guy at the helm to make those deals. Shapiro failing to can Atkins at the end of last year means the guy he may fire at the end of the year is the guy who needs to make the deals to get us to the rebuild. Large misstep by Shapiro.

[BigCecil]

Y’all talking about resigning vlad after a couple weeks of high babip is comical. Just a few months ago it was all about bo - oh how the tide turns on the SSS

 

I get that. But not all BABIP is not created equal. Vlad still hits the ball incredibly hard. Loft & pull side power has been an issue, as well as being in between late on high V.

 

It depends on the term/AAV. I have no emotional attachment to Vlad as a player. If he is willing to sign 6/110-120, we have made worse bets.

 

But given he went to arb hearing over his salary this year after a 1 WAR season, I think he(and his Agent) value himself MUCH higher than most of us do, so tough decisions need to be made soon.

[hanton]

we face Nastrini again today

[Brownie19]

One genuine large area of concern for me right now is that the team has been bad enough that pieces are going to be dealt. Obviously this needs to happen, the problem is with Atkins at the helm I am skeptical that we are going to make deals for the right pieces.

 

Atkins has a terrible drafting record, and as someone showed a couple of weeks ago, his initial deals for prospects with a rebuilding Jays team were absolutely awful (Billy McKinley, Brandon Drury, Derek Fisher etc). Not a lot of hope that he's going to start figuring out which players are going to become solid minor leaguers.

 

Atkins is decent at knowing the prospects he drafts aren't very good and dealing them away for decent major league talent, and (mostly) signing free agents. This has limited value for a team that needs to rebuild.

 

The (potential) Bo and Vlad trades are going to be what set up the next Jays era, and he should probably not have been the guy at the helm to make those deals. Shapiro failing to can Atkins at the end of last year means the guy he may fire at the end of the year is the guy who needs to make the deals to get us to the rebuild. Large misstep by Shapiro.

 

FFS - trading for a super toolsy player like Derek Fisher should not be viewed as a negative. That's how you land guys like Teo (which Atkins also did). It's a high risk/high reward move. Those moves are going to fail more than they succeed. You want to rip on him for trading for Brandon Drury? yeah, OK, go for it. The guy's shown over the past couple of years exactly why Atkins wanted him. It just didn't happen for him in Toronto and there are all kinds of reasons that may have happened. Players don't always breakout when you want and can struggle when moving into a new environment. Varsho's a good example of that right now.

 

Like all GM's, there have been trades that have worked out and trades that have flopped. Atkins has made small moves that worked out great (Teo, Espinal), he's made some big splashes that have worked out too (Chapman, Berrios and potentially Varsho). He's also made some stinkers.

 

In all reality, it seems unlikely they will actually start a full blown rebuild this year. We could see some pieces moved at the deadline (Kikucci, Jansen, Yimi, etc.), but it seems highly unlikely they'll be making any franchise altering moves. A new GM will be brought in this offseason and that's when we'll see larger moves made.

[Stangstag]

I don't think Vlad deserves that kind of money and commitment right now from the Blue Jays. Let's see how he finishes this season and how he does next season.

 

I'm not sure if we'll ever see another 5-6 WAR season from Vladdy and if we do maybe its only once. It's possible but its very unlikely. I would rather roll the dice on Soto or Tucker or Bregman if we're talking about 30M AAV + per season. Vladdy 2022 season and 3-4 WAR is most likely his ceiling. He can easily be replaced. You don't want to lock up that type of player to a 7 or 8 year deal.

 

He's 25 now, but in 2026 when it's the first year of his new deal, he'll be 27.

 

Agreed

[glory]

I get that. But not all BABIP is not created equal. Vlad still hits the ball incredibly hard. Loft & pull side power has been an issue, as well as being in between late on high V.

 

It depends on the term/AAV. I have no emotional attachment to Vlad as a player. If he is willing to sign 6/110-120, we have made worse bets.

 

But given he went to arb hearing over his salary this year after a 1 WAR season, I think he(and his Agent) value himself MUCH higher than most of us do, so tough decisions need to be made soon.

 

I think that’s the main issue. Vlad’s perception of his value vs his actual value. That’s why it’s going to be hard to find a number/term that makes sense for both sides. If there was a Matt Olson type of extension available and both sides were fine with it, then it would be ideal. Vlad probably doesn’t mind waiting a year and seeing what the future holds, especially since he’s going to make around ~$45m in arbitration in 2024-25 anyway. No chance the Jays non tender him even if he was 2023 Vlad again.

[Brownie19]

Agreed

 

It will be very interesting to see if Toronto is still able to attract and sign big name FA's. I think we looked a lot more appealing when we had the young Vlad/Bo core. I worry most top FA's will no longer want to play here unless we offer obscene amounts of money. I think the chances of Soto signing in Toronto are about -4.

[L54]

My point is this

 

If Vlad played for the St. Louis Cardinals and had a 130 wrc+ and a red statcast page everyone and their mother would be looking at him as a FA target in 2026

 

And there aren’t a ton of FA targets to throw money at

 

Soto, Bregman next year

 

Tucker, Albies, Naylor, Vlad, Bo in 2026

[Laika]

My point is this

 

If Vlad played for the St. Louis Cardinals and had a 130 wrc+ and a red statcast page everyone and their mother would be looking at him as a FA target in 2026

 

And there aren’t a ton of FA targets to throw money at

 

Soto, Bregman next year

 

Tucker, Albies, Naylor, Vlad, Bo in 2026

 

Yeah Vlad is recovering some trade value right now

 

He's really on such a razor's edge between worthless and intriguing

[L54]

It will be very interesting to see if Toronto is still able to attract and sign big name FA's. I think we looked a lot more appealing when we had the young Vlad/Bo core. I worry most top FA's will no longer want to play here unless we offer obscene amounts of money. I think the chances of Soto signing in Toronto are about -4.

 

I think Soto is even less likely than Ohtani. Ohtani was a special circumstance where there were only a few true players. With Soto there will be at least double the suitors lining up to pay him 47M a year

[L54]

Yeah Vlad is recovering some trade value right now

 

He's really on such a razor's edge between worthless and intriguing

 

My view is this. Vlad is not a smart dude. His baseball IQ is below average. He is more athletic than given credit for but he’s not a great one

 

Despite all this he’s been a pretty good hitter. And he’s one adjustment away from being a .300 30 HR guy. To me he’s a prime candidate to get better as he mentally matures and not only understands what opponents are trying to do but can digest information from coaches as well

[Barrelsandbombs]

City Connect leak?

 

[Terminator]

My point is this

 

If Vlad played for the St. Louis Cardinals and had a 130 wrc+ and a red statcast page everyone and their mother would be looking at him as a FA target in 2026

 

And there aren’t a ton of FA targets to throw money at

 

Soto, Bregman next year

 

Tucker, Albies, Naylor, Vlad, Bo in 2026

 

Yeah if Vlad is willing to sign a fair extension, and I get the feeling he is, I think the team should do it. Some sort of Olson like extension could work for both sides.

 

He's got better fitness this year and that 1 WAR version we saw last year was some sort of special set of nightmarish outcomes where his defense cratered along with his bat. He should be 3+ WAR moving forward with 6 WAR physical tools. Maybe a new FO can unlock some of that potential. Or maybe not. But a 3 WAR-ish guy for 8 years 160 mil (give or take, throw in some opt outs) isn't going to kill the team and they gotta spend the money somewhere.

[Terminator]

I think Soto is even less likely than Ohtani. Ohtani was a special circumstance where there were only a few true players. With Soto there will be at least double the suitors lining up to pay him 47M a year

 

Yeah I agree with this as well. I don't think we will ever get the top FA on mega deals nor will we ever even try for them.

 

But we can compete for good FAs who are shooting for ~80-150M. Guys like Bregman or Kim could be options next year, Soto is not.

[glory]

My point is this

 

If Vlad played for the St. Louis Cardinals and had a 130 wrc+ and a red statcast page everyone and their mother would be looking at him as a FA target in 2026

 

And there aren’t a ton of FA targets to throw money at

 

Soto, Bregman next year

 

Tucker, Albies, Naylor, Vlad, Bo in 2026

 

Agreed. I don’t particularly care for Vladimir Arraez Jr. hitting hard singles all day but the Savant page is red and we have seen power from him before. Mattingly won’t be in this org forever, unless the Baseball God’s really hate us, so I think there’s still some upside in a Vlad extension. He’s also still young enough that even if the team has to take a 2 year step back he would still be in his late 20’s by the time the team (hopefully) turned the corner again. Risky? Yes. But I think it might be worth it depending on the contract. I feel the exact opposite about Bichette.