General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2024)

[G-Snarls]

I wonder how long they will let Springer scuffle before they bring up Luke's or Barger to play RF....

 

66 wRC+ and -0.1 fWAR is not exactly a high bar to beat

 

25 million dollars says they'll let him all year unless he's injured

[L54]

Last I read they had to amputate his leg. The ankle roll started to spread.

 

Link??

[Laika]

I wonder how long they will let Springer scuffle before they bring up Luke's or Barger to play RF....

 

66 wRC+ and -0.1 fWAR is not exactly a high bar to beat

 

- walk rate at career norm

- k rate good (best of career)

- baserunning good

- defense FINE by OAA (0) and DRS (-1). UZR hates him this year.

- BABIP of .220

- wOBA .257 vs xwOBA .309

 

Lots of things under the hood look fine. The not so fine things are specific:

 

- maxEV, hard hit rate, launch angle, pull rate all down

 

so he's either gone over the cliff with his bat speed and the maxEV, hard hit rate, launch angle, pull rate will just never recover OR he's just going through some sort of timing issue that might at least be partly fixable

 

the fact that the K rate is good makes me think it's not just a simple loss of bat speed

 

and even if he is f***ed in terms of power, he is not presently playing like a player who should be replacement level. .309 wOBA with okay speed and close to avg defense could even approach 2 WAR over a full season. Whit Merrifield last year was .304 wOBA, 1.3 WAR in 592 PA with slightly negative D

[Jays24]

MLB says robot home plate umpires unlikely for 2025

https://www.thescore.com/mlb/news/2917122

 

Manfred is citing still have to sort of technical issues with the automated strike zone. What about the technical issues with all the current umps, which is like 10 times worse lol.

Edited May 23, 2024 by Jays24

[wilko]

Link??

 

https://blogs.mtdv.me/articles/JoeyVottoInjuryUpdate

[Laika]

joey votto has schlong covid

[L54]

https://blogs.mtdv.me/articles/JoeyVottoInjuryUpdate

 

Crazy if true

[Brownie19]

- walk rate at career norm

- k rate good (best of career)

- baserunning good

- defense FINE by OAA (0) and DRS (-1). UZR hates him this year.

- BABIP of .220

- wOBA .257 vs xwOBA .309

 

Lots of things under the hood look fine. The not so fine things are specific:

 

- maxEV, hard hit rate, launch angle, pull rate all down

 

so he's either gone over the cliff with his bat speed and the maxEV, hard hit rate, launch angle, pull rate will just never recover OR he's just going through some sort of timing issue that might at least be partly fixable

 

the fact that the K rate is good makes me think it's not just a simple loss of bat speed

 

and even if he is f***ed in terms of power, he is not presently playing like a player who should be replacement level. .309 wOBA with okay speed and close to avg defense could even approach 2 WAR over a full season. Whit Merrifield last year was .304 wOBA, 1.3 WAR in 592 PA with slightly negative D

 

Too bad there's no historical data on the bat speed yet. Right now it's 71.1, which is 42nd percentile. He's never been a HUGE average exit velo guy - always around the 50th percentile, so there's a possibility his bat speed was never really elite and may not have declined significantly. That's speculation though. Will be cool in 5-6 years when we can track those changes better. I'm curious to see how much bat speed does decline as player age.

[Stangstag]

- walk rate at career norm

- k rate good (best of career)

- baserunning good

- defense FINE by OAA (0) and DRS (-1). UZR hates him this year.

- BABIP of .220

- wOBA .257 vs xwOBA .309

 

Lots of things under the hood look fine. The not so fine things are specific:

 

- maxEV, hard hit rate, launch angle, pull rate all down

 

so he's either gone over the cliff with his bat speed and the maxEV, hard hit rate, launch angle, pull rate will just never recover OR he's just going through some sort of timing issue that might at least be partly fixable

 

the fact that the K rate is good makes me think it's not just a simple loss of bat speed

 

and even if he is f***ed in terms of power, he is not presently playing like a player who should be replacement level. .309 wOBA with okay speed and close to avg defense could even approach 2 WAR over a full season. Whit Merrifield last year was .304 wOBA, 1.3 WAR in 592 PA with slightly negative D

 

I really thought he'd bounce back this year and that 2023 was just a "down year", but yeah its starting to look like he's just cooked. Obviously not as bad as his current numbers show but I think his years of being an above-average hitter are behind him. Best we could hope for is probably 100ish wRC+ by year-end

[Stangstag]

Someone found what looks like the real city connect cap in Mexico:

 

https://www.reddit.com/media?url=https%3A%2F%2Fpreview.redd.it%2Fbeuc27x1a82d1.jpg%3Fwidth%3D640%26crop%3Dsmart%26auto%3Dwebp%26s%3D9bf337b5b5aa2973f1822e31584d09b0f9b1a4ce

 

Thoughts?? No Purple is interesting....

[wilko]

Someone found what looks like the real city connect cap in Mexico:

 

https://www.reddit.com/media?url=https%3A%2F%2Fpreview.redd.it%2Fbeuc27x1a82d1.jpg%3Fwidth%3D640%26crop%3Dsmart%26auto%3Dwebp%26s%3D9bf337b5b5aa2973f1822e31584d09b0f9b1a4ce

 

Thoughts?? No Purple is interesting....

 

I kinda like it!

[John_Havok]

I really thought he'd bounce back this year and that 2023 was just a "down year", but yeah its starting to look like he's just cooked. Obviously not as bad as his current numbers show but I think his years of being an above-average hitter are behind him. Best we could hope for is probably 100ish wRC+ by year-end

 

Springer has Vlad-itis in that he's garbage against the fastball. As recent as 2022 he murdered them.

 

To me, it looks like he has the same idiotic approach that Vlad has in that he's never ready for the fastball and always looking offspeed causing him to be late

[BCZ]

/Uninstall Geogef***inSpringerHef***inSucks

[L54]

Someone found what looks like the real city connect cap in Mexico:

 

https://www.reddit.com/media?url=https%3A%2F%2Fpreview.redd.it%2Fbeuc27x1a82d1.jpg%3Fwidth%3D640%26crop%3Dsmart%26auto%3Dwebp%26s%3D9bf337b5b5aa2973f1822e31584d09b0f9b1a4ce

 

Thoughts?? No Purple is interesting....

 

I actually don’t mind it. I don’t love black red and blue together but we will see. I saw on FB Kikuchi seeing the jerseys for the first time and he had a positive reaction. I’m excited to see them

[John_Havok]

Someone found what looks like the real city connect cap in Mexico:

 

https://www.reddit.com/media?url=https%3A%2F%2Fpreview.redd.it%2Fbeuc27x1a82d1.jpg%3Fwidth%3D640%26crop%3Dsmart%26auto%3Dwebp%26s%3D9bf337b5b5aa2973f1822e31584d09b0f9b1a4ce

 

Thoughts?? No Purple is interesting....

 

It's a safe choice, not outstanding or risk taking, but it's also not just some simple 3 letters like so many other teams.

 

Predictable to include the leaf but overall, I give it a plus.

[BigCecil]

Listening to Ben Clemen Fangraphs nerd.

 

1. Kikuchi best chip. Hot commodity if performing at or near this level. 1 + years removed now from negative WAR season.

 

2. Jano to Cubs makes most sense. They need catching and deep prospect pool.

 

3. Yimi good chip but reliever rental so not a huge return.

 

4. They aren't trading Bo or Vlad this season.

[Jays24]

Listening to Ben Clemen Fangraphs nerd.

 

1. Kikuchi best chip. Hot commodity if performing at or near this level. 1 + years removed now from negative WAR season.

 

2. Jano to Cubs makes most sense. They need catching and deep prospect pool.

 

3. Yimi good chip but reliever rental so not a huge return.

 

4. They aren't trading Bo or Vlad this season.

 

Scrap the rebuild, we've beaten the Tigers and White Sox. We're going all the way. All hail the Home Run Jacket lol

[Masterbather]

Scrap the rebuild, we've beaten the Tigers and White Sox. We're going all the way. All hail the Home Run Jacket lol

 

I've already started planning World Series watch parties with friends and family. Can't wait to watch another banner hang.

[connorp]

- walk rate at career norm

- k rate good (best of career)

- baserunning good

- defense FINE by OAA (0) and DRS (-1). UZR hates him this year.

- BABIP of .220

- wOBA .257 vs xwOBA .309

 

Lots of things under the hood look fine. The not so fine things are specific:

 

- maxEV, hard hit rate, launch angle, pull rate all down

 

so he's either gone over the cliff with his bat speed and the maxEV, hard hit rate, launch angle, pull rate will just never recover OR he's just going through some sort of timing issue that might at least be partly fixable

 

the fact that the K rate is good makes me think it's not just a simple loss of bat speed

 

and even if he is f***ed in terms of power, he is not presently playing like a player who should be replacement level. .309 wOBA with okay speed and close to avg defense could even approach 2 WAR over a full season. Whit Merrifield last year was .304 wOBA, 1.3 WAR in 592 PA with slightly negative D

 

Bat speed just seems like a nerd stat you guys were all dying for that doesn’t mean a lot. I’m sure I can swing faster than many mlb players. Of course, as players advance in age, I imagine loss of bat speed is normal. I’m sure through thousands of regular repetitions and their gradually changing swing speed, a new timing mechanism kind of naturally develops.

 

What nerd stats would matter is how hard they’re hitting the ball, how often they’re barreling up, etc. I’m sure you could probably jump in to a pile of thousands of data crunch hours studying bat speed and it’s doubtful you’ll have any useful information at the end..

[Stangstag]

Bat speed just seems like a nerd stat you guys were all dying for that doesn’t mean a lot. I’m sure I can swing faster than many mlb players. Of course, as players advance in age, I imagine loss of bat speed is normal. I’m sure through thousands of regular repetitions and their gradually changing swing speed, a new timing mechanism kind of naturally develops.

 

What nerd stats would matter is how hard they’re hitting the ball, how often they’re barreling up, etc. I’m sure you could probably jump in to a pile of thousands of data crunch hours studying bat speed and it’s doubtful you’ll have any useful information at the end..

 

I'm sure you can't

[jaysblue]

Listening to Ben Clemen Fangraphs nerd.

 

1. Kikuchi best chip. Hot commodity if performing at or near this level. 1 + years removed now from negative WAR season.

 

2. Jano to Cubs makes most sense. They need catching and deep prospect pool.

 

3. Yimi good chip but reliever rental so not a huge return.

 

4. They aren't trading Bo or Vlad this season.

 

Kikuchi definitely the best chip agreed. Sucks to trade him but he's unlikely to re-sign here anyways in the offseason being a Boras client. If the Jays are hovering around .500 still, I would trade him for a big return. Heck could still add a veteran back-end starter at the deadline likely on the cheap if they want to make a small push at that last WC spot anyways.

 

Would suck to trade Jano. Would be nice if Jays could sign him to an extension, but understand if he's healthy he'll be a hot commodity to a team that needs catching.

 

Yimi will be a good chip, but like you said just a reliever rental.

 

Might be tough trade Bo or Vlad in season, but a team that trades for them now essentially gets two Postseason runs with them.

[Omar]

I'm sure you can't

 

Well, maybe Biggio.

[glory]

Listening to Ben Clemen Fangraphs nerd.

 

1. Kikuchi best chip. Hot commodity if performing at or near this level. 1 + years removed now from negative WAR season.

 

2. Jano to Cubs makes most sense. They need catching and deep prospect pool.

 

3. Yimi good chip but reliever rental so not a huge return.

 

4. They aren't trading Bo or Vlad this season.

 

Pretty much agree with all these points. Reliever markets can be pretty good depending on how desperate the buying team is (ex. Ragans for Chapman) so I wouldn’t rule out a great return for Garcia (well, as “great” of a return as Atkins could get as a seller), but remains to be seen. AJ Preller is guaranteed to trade prospects so hopefully he’s interested in at least one of the Jays trade candidates.

[Spanky99]

I thought Green was to join the Jays this weekend, Shi lied to me.

[connorp]

If Rangers didn't win the Ring, someone would be arrested for Ragans for Chapman.

 

It’s interesting how those things work. Flipped teams and was immediately better. Infinite explanation theories, I guess.

[Omar]

I thought Green was to join the Jays this weekend, Shi lied to me.

 

The Rogers talking heads know maybe a fraction more than we do on the bjmb about the comings and goings in blue jay land.

[Omar]

Justin Turner batting second today:confused:

[connorp]

The Rogers talking heads know maybe a fraction more than we do on the bjmb about the comings and goings in blue jay land.

 

Is there any major ones openly critical of the FO?

[connorp]

I think without question, even on the small heater without many HR, it’s pretty clear you gotta take Vlad to FA. Bo just seems like a dude that wants every cent and even though he’s likely going to get back to .800 OPS guy, it’s not worth the money he’ll want. .750 OPS isnt far from .820. Will be a quick step there one day. Not like his D is great. Hopefully he plays better to have proper value.

 

I think even if you rebuild (though they’ll 100% call it a re-tool and not rebuild), with all that money they spent, you need some commercial appeal still. This isn’t NBa tank nation, which is even starting to not work out with their lottery system

[connorp]

If season ends today and Vlad was FA, not sure what the market value would be. Pretty interesting. Belly is a comp of sorts. Though admittedly quite different in that he plays a premium position, which would stand to reason his deal would be more