General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2024)

[Laika]

I would like to give my two cents reference Varhso.

 

As many of you know, Varsho was my man crush and I was extremely happy we acquired him last year. I was an adamant defender of Varsho last year, at least his other tangibles and intangibles he brought to the team. I did by the end become exasperated with his offensive production or lack of.

 

One of the theories I put out last season was that Varsho is the opposite of some on the team and 100% coachable, willing to please and do what ever the coaches said/say. This personality attribute as well as being a younger player coming to a new team, made Varsho very malleable.

 

My theory on his poor offensive performance vs his pre-Blue Jays offensive performance is that someone in our system had "f***ed him up", for lack of a more precise term.

 

I recall many on the board saying that hitting coaches and system philosophy and offensive coordinators and all that has nothing or very little to do with a hitters performance and is not to blame.

 

I would say the 2024 season to date is exhibit A. I mean what the hell else explains a history since the minors of X then an extreme outlier in 2023 and then back to X in 2024.

 

There did not appear to be an injury that would affect Varho's offence in 2023.

 

I am going to double down and say we (the Blue Jays system/process in place in 2023) f***ed him up. We changed the process in 2024 and now we have the hitter Varsho has been.

 

Case closed. Judgment in favor of CD.

 

 

There is almost no difference between 2022 Varsho, 2023 Varsho, and 2024 Varsho.

 

Lots of flyballs, pulled balls, and a decent clip of strikeouts just = a higher variance player.

 

His xwOBA in 2024 is actually a putrid .286, very close to his 2022 and 2023 figures.

 

His current FB rate is 52%, and he has a 20% HR/FB which he has never sustained. Almost every guy who has a FB rate like that and doesn't suck is a .210 hitter with huge power. Maybe Varsho will just become Kyle Schwarber or late career Max Muncy. Nothing wrong with that. Lean into your strengths, stop trying to fix your flaws.

.210 with 30+ HR is better than .229 with 19 homers. He can bunt his way to being a .230 hitter anyway.

 

Varsho needs to embrace his true identity.

[jaysblue]

I think the only surprise would be if they moved Yariel to the bullpen NOW. I think most people assumed he’d get about 10-15 starts.

 

Now, maybe they want to have him rejoin the rotation towards the end of the season where they think he can make more of an impact.

 

If Manoah could just be serviceable then that would be extremely welcome.

 

I think Yariel makes more of an impact as an electric arm out of the pen who can pitch multiple innings if need be near the end of the season. Even in a Postseason matchup such as the ALCS, Yariel doesn't even make a start unless an injury or two to one of the other arms.

 

Let him make a couple of more starts and then move him to the pen. Was unlikely anyways that he was going to make more than 15 starts or pitch above 100 innings as a starter. Hopefully he could provide value out of the pen, especially down the stretch and in the Postseason.

[Carlos Danger]

There is almost no difference between 2022 Varsho, 2023 Varsho, and 2024 Varsho.

 

Lots of flyballs, pulled balls, and a decent clip of strikeouts just = a higher variance player.

 

His xwOBA in 2024 is actually a putrid .286, very close to his 2022 and 2023 figures.

 

His current FB rate is 52%, and he has a 20% HR/FB which he has never sustained. Almost every guy who has a FB rate like that and doesn't suck is a .210 hitter with huge power. Maybe Varsho will just become Kyle Schwarber or late career Max Muncy. Nothing wrong with that. Lean into your strengths, stop trying to fix your flaws.

.210 with 30+ HR is better than .229 with 19 homers. He can bunt his way to being a .230 hitter anyway.

 

Varsho needs to embrace his true identity.

 

The # 1 reason for his success so far this year is probably his ability to barrel up the 4 seam fastball. EV is up in general, contact on balls in the zone etc.. SSS but an up to 10% plus positive in a litany of different categories vs 2023 has made Varsho a much more effective run producer this year. *So far.

[Terminator]

I think they should just ride Yariel as much as they can while (1) he's hot and (2) still has innings available to give to the team. If they jerk him out of the rotation and put him into the bullpen, it could affect his performance some.

 

But if Yariel can get us to the trade deadline, or at least close to it, then we can either move to Manoah or make a trade when Yariel hits his innings limit.

[hanton]

(not sure if this has been posted already)

 

I like it, give JS some flexibility once Votto is ready

 

[Orgfiller]

(not sure if this has been posted already)

 

I like it, give JS some flexibility once Votto is ready

 

 

Ironically the team already has so much flexibility with infielders that Vlad would be like 6th in line for an emergency 3B appearance.

[hanton]

Ironically the team already has so much flexibility with infielders that Vlad would be like 6th in line for an emergency 3B appearance.

 

He's a starter though

[Orgfiller]

He's a starter though

 

He’d certainly never start there I gotta think though. The left side of the IF defense would be a sieve.

[hanton]

He’d certainly never start there I gotta think though. The left side of the IF defense would be a sieve.

 

you think he's taking grounders at 3rd just incase they go through the other 5 options ?

[Dick_Pole]

(not sure if this has been posted already)

 

I like it, give JS some flexibility once Votto is ready

 

 

How can you like this? Jays are winning games their way. Don't mess with the formula. If it is absolutely imperative that Votto gets in a game, I'd rather have Guerrero benched than him playing 3B.

[Laika]

Votto retired two days ago

They had to amputate

[Dick_Pole]

Yeah, Springer is overpaid and it would be good to be rid of him. But I don't think it's at the point where he's a major problem. He's still an average RF defender, and I think he'll be a bit above average offensively this year. He still runs pretty well. You don't want to pay 25M for a 2-win RF, but it's also not crippling for the back half of a FA contract.

 

I think 90% of the annoyance with Springer isn't his value, contract or his reasonable decline. It's his usage. Why is the f***ing guy still batting leadoff like it's his enshrined role on the team? Jettison him to the 8th spot.

[hanton]

How can you like this? Jays are winning games their way. Don't mess with the formula. If it is absolutely imperative that Votto gets in a game, I'd rather have Guerrero benched than him playing 3B.

 

I agree bench Vlady and bat IKF 3rd, he's our 2nd best hitter.

[BigCecil]

Curious what the nerds think of Berrios having a 0.85 ERA and a 4.26 xERA. FIP is @ 3.36

 

Guys not a FIP beater over 1250 IP SS. His career ERA, FIP and xFIP are all the same - 4

 

Is there anything to the huge spread between ERA and xERA, or is it just noise because its only a 31 IP SS?

[Terminator]

Curious what the nerds think of Berrios having a 0.85 ERA and a 4.26 xERA. FIP is @ 3.36

 

Guys not a FIP beater over 1250 IP SS. His career ERA, FIP and xFIP are all the same - 4

 

Is there anything to the huge spread between ERA and xERA, or is it just noise because its only a 31 IP SS?

 

Yeah the 0.85 is ludicrous but it seems like he's earned his 3.36 FIP. XFIP and xERA are lower but still solid. Probably settles in for a season like last year which will work.

[hanton]

Curious what the nerds think of Berrios having a 0.85 ERA and a 4.26 xERA. FIP is @ 3.36

 

Guys not a FIP beater over 1250 IP SS. His career ERA, FIP and xFIP are all the same - 4

 

Is there anything to the huge spread between ERA and xERA, or is it just noise because its only a 31 IP SS?

 

.... had a quick look, xERA is just xwOBA converted to the ERA scale, it contains/measures the amount and quality of contact. There's alot of noise in ERA

[Masterbather]

Curious what the nerds think of Berrios having a 0.85 ERA and a 4.26 xERA. FIP is @ 3.36

 

Guys not a FIP beater over 1250 IP SS. His career ERA, FIP and xFIP are all the same - 4

 

Is there anything to the huge spread between ERA and xERA, or is it just noise because its only a 31 IP SS?

 

Berrios is pretty much who he's always been. It's not unthinkable that he might have a career year this year but highly unlikely he becomes a Cy Young candidate. He's a good, reliable mid-rotation 200 inning guy. Happy to have him.

[burlingtonbandit]

I think 90% of the annoyance with Springer isn't his value, contract or his reasonable decline. It's his usage. Why is the f***ing guy still batting leadoff like it's his enshrined role on the team? Jettison him to the 8th spot.

 

To be fair there really isn't an ideal guy to take his place. You kind of just have to roll with Vladdy/Bo/Turner 2-4. The other guys on the roster are a lot of platoon/matchup type players.

 

Varsho- Doesn't get on base nearly enough

Jansen- Lower OBP/higher power guy not ideal for leadoff

 

As mediocre as Springer has been I'd still rather him lead off than Cavan Biggio.

[Spanky99]

Trade Bo for stuff

non-tender Vlad

 

Commit all of that payroll to Juan Soto even if it takes $40M

 

The SS can just be Clement. 1B can be a Horwitz/Orelvis platoon or something.

 

This would be ideal

 

This would be terrible???

[Spanky99]

Berrios is pretty much who he's always been. It's not unthinkable that he might have a career year this year but highly unlikely he becomes a Cy Young candidate. He's a good, reliable mid-rotation 200 inning guy. Happy to have him.

 

You need a rain cloud, legit.

[Masterbather]

You need a rain cloud, legit.

I literally complimented the guy and you still piss and moan.

[jaysblue]

I literally complimented the guy and you still piss and moan.

 

Berrios has a 0.85 ERA this season. He's winning the Cy Young man, nothing short of that. To say he's just a reliable 200 inning guy is ignorant.

[BTS]

Berrios has a 0.85 ERA this season. He's winning the Cy Young man, nothing short of that. To say he's just a reliable 200 inning guy is ignorant.

 

I feel like the only time Berrios and Cy Young are mentioned together on this forum is when you pretend people on the forum are saying he's going to win it, and then get mad about it.

[jaysblue]

I feel like the only time Berrios and Cy Young are mentioned together on this forum is when you pretend people on the forum are saying he's going to win it, and then get mad about it.

 

I got Kikuchi winning the Cy Young. Got him at 81 to 1 about two weeks ago.

[BTS]

I got Kikuchi winning the Cy Young. Got him at 81 to 1 about two weeks ago.

 

Probably a good gamble. It wouldn't really be more surprising than the time Robbie Ray won it

[Governator]

I'll take the extra inning pitched and without feeling like things are unraveling with Berrios over Kooch any day.

[Brownie19]

Varsho and Trout are currently tied in WAR (21st overall)

[BTS]

Varsho and Trout are currently tied in WAR (21st overall)

 

Haven’t updated for yesterday’s games. Varsho should leave Trout in his dust

[Omar]

I literally complimented the guy and you still piss and moan.

 

Because you said it is "highly unlikely" that he would even be a CY candidate. Kind of a backhanded compliment.

[Masterbather]

Because you said it is "highly unlikely" that he would even be a CY candidate. Kind of a backhanded compliment.

 

A regular Berrios season does not rise to the level of legit Cy Young candidate. It just doesn't. Even a career year would have to be quite substantially better than his best. I don't think it's reasonable to expect at this point that there's going to be that kind of jump in his pitching, there's nothing to indicate that there will be. That's just objective honesty. That doesn't make him a bad pitcher, he's a pretty consistent, durable and reliable pitcher who helps stabilize the rotation. He's not an ace but guys like him still don't grow on trees, especially these days with all the injuries.