General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2024)

[Laika]

Would be hilarious if the RC plays like a hitter’s paradise now after the new changes this year haha.

 

Man it might!

 

You never know how changing the seating structure might change the way air circulates

 

And the reduction in foul territory will obviously increase scoring, it's just a matter of how much

[Brownie19]

Would be hilarious if the RC plays like a hitter’s paradise now after the new changes this year haha.

 

I think there's a pretty good chance this happens. Shrinking foul territory will have an impact. There's a probability that Chapman just has a perception that he can't hit at RC though. Could be mental.

 

Honest question. wRC+ includes park factors. Do they use the park factors that are calculated each individual year? (I assume they do and this may be hard to explain). But I think I've read it could take 2-3 years worth of data to properly calculate the new park factor for RC (which will reset this year as they've made more changes). If, after 2-3 years worth of data, they find out their park factors were way off, do they retroactively adjust stats from the previous years?

 

Also - what would they have done early last year when there was little to no park factor data available? Would they have just assigned some average factor? or used the pre reno park factor for RC? Sorry if that doesn't make sense. I'm sure L54 will tell me I'm a retard if it doesn't.

[Stangstag]

I'm pretty sure most people on here have already made up their minds. Atkins mis-read the market AGAIN, learned nothing from the Morales/EE situation and is a moron. As I said before - easy to sit back and rip on Atkins when you know very little about the factors.

 

I'm willing to see it it both ways.

 

It could be that he misread the market. Could be that Chapman never wanted to come back. Could even be that they actually like IKF better.

 

The truth is that we don't know. You were being pretty rude to several posters claiming that money wouldn't be an issue. You're acting as if you work in the front office and you KNOW all these things when you're just guessing like the rest of us.

 

What we DO know, because its 100% factual is that Chapman signed for way less than anyone expected. Some people are rightfully pissed off at the fact we couldn't beat that offer.

[deanmike]

Okay but it completely changes the discussion around him and the budget.

 

"Toronto jumped the gun and then did not have room in the budget to afford him" is ********, if you believe this tweet.

 

"Toronto was told they were out so they spent money elsewhere" is more correct.

KingSarcasm is legit so I actually believe the bolded now.

 

Or get permission to exceed the next luxury tax threshold.

That still doesn't change the fact that 2nd threshold budget denial like this should not be happening. It's real, no more denying it, and Chapman never being interested in coming back doesn't change that it's real.

[BTS]

 

KingSarcasm just provided clarity through his source, on why Chapman didn't come back.

 

He claimed to know all offseason that Chapman wasn't coming back, but wouldn't specify why until now.

 

This still doesn't change the fact that the 2nd threshold budget coming from ownership is real (barring a special case which Chapman wasn't), and the Jays are projected to be 6.3M under it and Chapman's AAV is 18M. Even if Chapman was open to coming back at this stage in the offseason, they still almost certainly wouldn't have been able to do it according to multiple Rogers shills like Shi/BNS/Zwelling.

 

However, it seems Chapman's mindset was "I would prefer to call almost any ballpark home over the new Rogers Centre."

 

This kind of perfectly tracks with the way the Jays have operated this offseason.

 

I would like to retract my reactionary criticism of Ross Atkins. I no longer think he should be walked out by security. Unless IKF gets 500 PA and puts up under 1.5 WAR.

[MikeM3]

Both parties misread it. 2/15 for IKF is a big misread regardless of the Chapman situation

[BTS]

Both parties misread it. 2/15 for IKF is a big misread regardless of the Chapman situation

 

It's a pretty minor misread. I don't know what fair value is for IKF. 2/10? 1/5?

[Laika]

It's a pretty minor misread. I don't know what fair value is for IKF. 2/10? 1/5?

 

1/$2M evidently

[connorp]

Urshels is better and you could literally multiply his salary by 5 to get to IKF.

[BTS]

Urshels is better and you could literally multiply his salary by 5 to get to IKF.

 

But we're still just talking about minor end of roster pieces. If IKF is as good as the team thinks he is (and they almost certainly think he's better than Urshela), nobody will care that he makes 7.5M this year instead of 2 or 4 or whatever. And if he's not, the big mistake will have been turning 3B over to him in the first place, not maybe paying him a few million more than they might have if they had waited longer.

[BTS]

Like, the team clearly thinks they're getting a league-average 3B. That's the evaluation that actually matters here, not a couple of million dollars,

[BatFlip]

Urshels is better and you could literally multiply his salary by 5 to get to IKF.

 

Yup, plus only one year guaranteed. People keep saying it doesn't matter, but when you're working right near the cap of a budget, $5M and $7.5M next year does have an impact on what level of player you can chase/sign with remaining funds.

 

Let's hope IKF has a career year and we all eat our words...

[MikeM3]

It's a pretty minor misread. I don't know what fair value is for IKF. 2/10? 1/5?

 

There were like 2 3bs who signed for more than 1/2m.

 

If there were no suitors for Chapman then I don't know how there would be suitors willing to start IKF at 3b.

 

Even if you expand it to infielders who are generously projected for 1 war, they all signed for like 1/5. Anderson, Kike, Urshela 1mill, Rosario 1mil.

 

Percentage wise it's probably an astronomical overpay. Total dollars wise whatever I guess.

 

But its still a problem that we're one of the teams that pays $/war for 1 war players when the smart teams don't. So that kinda means Atkins is dumber than the smart teams.

[deanmike]

IKF isn't going to be the everyday 3B. Both the team and the Rogers shills around them have been pretty open about both 3B and 2B going to be heavily platoon based this year between all the guys on the roster who could see time at either one, or both of these positions.

 

IKF, Biggio, Turner (1-2 times a week per the team) and Espinal/Clement (whichever one of them makes the 26 man) will mix it up at 3B

 

Schneider, Biggio and Espinal/Clement will mix it up at 2B

[Laika]

IKF isn't going to be the everyday 3B. Both the team and the Rogers shills around them have been pretty open about both 3B and 2B going to be heavily platoon based this year between all the guys on the roster who could see time at either one, or both of these positions.

 

IKF, Biggio, Turner (1-2 times a week per the team) and Espinal/Clement (whichever one of them makes the 26 man) will mix it up at 3B

 

Schneider, Biggio and Espinal/Clement will mix it up at 2B

 

450 PA there

 

unless someone takes his job, which is possible

[BTS]

Percentage wise it's probably an astronomical overpay. Total dollars wise whatever I guess.

 

But its still a problem that we're one of the teams that pays $/war for 1 war players when the smart teams don't. So that kinda means Atkins is dumber than the smart teams.

 

Dodgers just gave Heyward 9M for 1 year and Hernandez 4M. Joe Kelly 8M.

Rays gave Phil Maton 6.5M

Braves gave Joe Jimenez 3/26 and Reynaldo Lopez 3/30

Orioles have Kimbrel 13M

Phillies gave Merrifield 8M

 

Throwing 7.5M x 2 years at a guy they probably think is about league average just isn't a big deal.

[Brownie19]

I'm willing to see it it both ways.

 

It could be that he misread the market. Could be that Chapman never wanted to come back. Could even be that they actually like IKF better.

 

The truth is that we don't know. You were being pretty rude to several posters claiming that money wouldn't be an issue. You're acting as if you work in the front office and you KNOW all these things when you're just guessing like the rest of us.

 

What we DO know, because its 100% factual is that Chapman signed for way less than anyone expected. Some people are rightfully pissed off at the fact we couldn't beat that offer.

 

My memory isn't great these days, but I don't recall suggesting that $$$ wouldn't be an issue. I did suggest there's a possibility they get approval to exceed the next luxury tax threshold. I do remember agreeing with BTS/Laika (one of them) that suggested the $7.5M IKF is getting is going to be the primary reason we can't afford Belly or Chapman. I try not to speak in absolutes (although I did just say the Dodgers would 100% prefer Belly to Teo - my bad). I just strongly disagree with the suggesting Atkins must have mis-read the market because he didn't sign Chapman instead of IKF and Turner. I think there's a good probability that isn't true - and even if it where, I don't think it's fair to suggest a GM ought to read the market perfectly on a yearly basis (or at all?). Are there GM's who correctly read the market correctly year after year after year? How much luck involved? It's all probabilities IMO.

[Brownie19]

Dodgers just gave Heyward 9M for 1 year and Hernandez 4M. Joe Kelly 8M.

Rays gave Phil Maton 6.5M

Braves gave Joe Jimenez 3/26 and Reynaldo Lopez 3/30

Orioles have Kimbrel 13M

Phillies gave Merrifield 8M

 

Throwing 7.5M x 2 years at a guy they probably think is about league average just isn't a big deal.

 

I'll add to this. IKF projects at 1.1 WAR this year. Jeimer Candelario also projects for 1.1 WAR and he got 3 years $45M. LGJ projects at 1.2 WAR and he got 3 years $42M.

 

Now those are overpays...

[MikeM3]

Dodgers just gave Heyward 9M for 1 year and Hernandez 4M. Joe Kelly 8M.

Rays gave Phil Maton 6.5M

Braves gave Joe Jimenez 3/26 and Reynaldo Lopez 3/30

Orioles have Kimbrel 13M

Phillies gave Merrifield 8M

 

Throwing 7.5M x 2 years at a guy they probably think is about league average just isn't a big deal.

 

Those guys were all pretty good last year.

 

But ya it's not a big deal by itself.

 

I guess if you add IKF, Turner, Yariel, Green and KK (when you have Varsho) its like 50 million so we'll see how that goes.

 

When the dust settles it'll be a big meh could have done better, maybe worse.

 

Just feels like alot of that these days

[BTS]

I'll add to this. IKF projects at 1.1 WAR this year. So does Jeimer Candelario, he got 3 years $45M. LGJ projects at 1.2 WAR, he got 3 years $42M

 

Now those are overpays...

 

It's weird seeing them take so much criticism over their read of the FA market. They're a big budget team that has actually done a very good job spending money. Springer is probably the only underwater contract on the books, but he's still an above average player on the back half of a FA deal that looks like it's going to be a fine signing.

[deanmike]

My memory isn't great these days, but I don't recall suggesting that $$$ wouldn't be an issue. I did suggest there's a possibility they get approval to exceed the next luxury tax threshold. I do remember agreeing with BTS/Laika (one of them) that suggested the $7.5M IKF is getting is going to be the primary reason we can't afford Belly or Chapman. I try not to speak in absolutes (although I did just say the Dodgers would 100% prefer Belly to Teo - my bad). I just strongly disagree with the suggesting Atkins must have mis-read the market because he didn't sign Chapman instead of IKF and Turner. I think there's a good probability that isn't true - and even if it where, I don't think it's fair to suggest a GM ought to read the market perfectly on a yearly basis (or at all?). Are there GM's who correctly read the market correctly year after year after year? How much luck involved? It's all probabilities IMO.

 

Chapman was never a special case, confirmed by the Rogers shills. Ohtani/Freeman/Seager type FAs are.

[BTS]

Those guys were all pretty good last year.

 

But ya it's not a big deal by itself.

 

I guess if you add IKF, Turner, Yariel, Green and KK (when you have Varsho) its like 50 million so we'll see how that goes.

 

When the dust settles it'll be a big meh could have done better, maybe worse.

 

Just feels like alot of that these days

 

Most likely outcome is probably that those signings were just fine in the aggregate, and the team is just fine in 2024. Not great. I think they'd probably like to find someone who's A) worthy of 300m+ of their money, and wants to take it from them. But until that happens, I think these safe short term deals are fine.

[BatFlip]

I'll add to this. IKF projects at 1.1 WAR this year. Jeimer Candelario also projects for 1.1 WAR and he got 3 years $45M. LGJ projects at 1.2 WAR and he got 3 years $42M.

 

Now those are overpays...

 

 

Good point.

[justafan]

Dodgers just gave Heyward 9M for 1 year and Hernandez 4M. Joe Kelly 8M.

Rays gave Phil Maton 6.5M

Braves gave Joe Jimenez 3/26 and Reynaldo Lopez 3/30

Orioles have Kimbrel 13M

Phillies gave Merrifield 8M

 

Throwing 7.5M x 2 years at a guy they probably think is about league average just isn't a big deal.

 

I liked Merrifield! In my mind, a real baseball player

[Stangstag]

I'll add to this. IKF projects at 1.1 WAR this year. Jeimer Candelario also projects for 1.1 WAR and he got 3 years $45M. LGJ projects at 1.2 WAR and he got 3 years $42M.

 

Now those are overpays...

 

Yeah oof. I feel like those projections on Candelario and Gurriel are light and I guess those front offices agree.

 

We’ll see how those contracts turn out but yeah they could both be bad.

[Terminator]

IKF isn't going to be the everyday 3B. Both the team and the Rogers shills around them have been pretty open about both 3B and 2B going to be heavily platoon based this year between all the guys on the roster who could see time at either one, or both of these positions.

 

IKF, Biggio, Turner (1-2 times a week per the team) and Espinal/Clement (whichever one of them makes the 26 man) will mix it up at 3B

 

Schneider, Biggio and Espinal/Clement will mix it up at 2B

 

Going to be a ton of moving parts to the lineup this year. The platoons aren't going to be traditional lefty/righty platoons either but based more on pitch types.

 

As you mentioned, 3B and 2B will see a ton of guys rotating through but DH (maybe Vogelbach if he makes the team as well as Jansen/Kirk) and LF (Schneider and some Biggio) are going to see a lot of that as well.

[Brownie19]

Chapman was never a special case, confirmed by the Rogers shills. Ohtani/Freeman/Seager type FAs are.

 

Yes - I'm aware. I just said there's a possibility of it, which is true - although I acknowledge it's pretty damn low.

[John_Havok]

Urshels is better and you could literally multiply his salary by 5 to get to IKF.

 

Urshela is coming off a broken pelvis that ended his season July last year. It's reasonable to assume there might be a dip in his skillset

[Spanky99]

Urshela is coming off a broken pelvis that ended his season July last year. It's reasonable to assume there might be a dip in his skillset

 

He's too dumb to know that and Urshela's defence isn't close. The money was obviously shown as a an overpay, but not egregious, but the term, well that was dumn AF.

[glory]

If the Jays got word from Chapman that he had no interest in returning, then yes, pivoting early made sense, and we should go easier on Atkins for that.

 

Pivoting to IKF for 2/15 is what most of the complaints are based on, though.