General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2024)

[Jonn]

Is it an overreaction to say multiple times that the Jays should fire a 2+ fWAR player into the sun?

 

No that one was purely personal.

 

Would still love for that to happen.

[max silver]

No that one was purely personal.

 

Would still love for that to happen.

 

Why in the world would you want that to happen? Wouldn't it be infinitely preferable to see the player bounce back to previous levels of performance and help the Blue Jays win instead of unceremoniously dumping him to another team?

[Jonn]

And they should trade a relatively inexpensive reliever who's only scheduled to make $6 million despite providing a full win above replacement. On top of that there was constant grousing that this incredibly reasonable vesting option was going to kick in and that the team should dump this player to avoid paying him that below market salary for 2024.

 

Jays have pen depth. Very good pen depth actually. They don’t need to give Garcia 6 million if they are struggling to build an offense. Like its not outrageous contract but with the Jays right up against the tax it all adds up.

 

One thing that would he fun to track is how many relievers sign minor league deals this off-season out perform Garcia because middle relievers aren’t that hard to find.

[Jonn]

Why in the world would you want that to happen? Wouldn't it be infinitely preferable to see the player bounce back to previous levels of performance and help the Blue Jays win instead of unceremoniously dumping him to another team?

 

Fire into the sun is an expression. At no point did I think they should dump him for nothing. I wouldn’t mind if they moved on him from him though.

 

Watching him hit is pure agony. Especially the bunting.

[max silver]

Jays have pen depth. Very good pen depth actually. They don’t need to give Garcia 6 million if they are struggling to build an offense. Like its not outrageous contract but with the Jays right up against the tax it all adds up.

 

One thing that would he fun to track is how many relievers sign minor league deals this off-season out perform Garcia because middle relievers aren’t that hard to find.

 

You don't seem to grasp how effective Garcia has been for the club the last two seasons and how much money lesser relievers are signing for in free agency the last few offseasons. Over the last two seasons Garcia ranks 38th in MLB in FWAR among relievers with a minimum of 100 innings pitched. He's not easily replaced and makes relative peanuts compared to the typical veteran reliever that provides comparable on field value.

[Jonn]

You don't seem to grasp how effective Garcia has been for the club the last two seasons and how much money lesser relievers are signing for in free agency the last few offseasons. Over the last two seasons Garcia ranks 38th in MLB in FWAR among relievers with a minimum of 100 innings pitched. He's not easily replaced and makes relative peanuts compared to the typical veteran reliever that provides comparable on field value.

 

I would rather his money be allocated elsewhere once again not that difficult. Jays have a good Bullpen. They can trade from strength to address other concerns? Like either you don’t know a tax penalty exists or you’re purposely ignoring it. This isn’t even about Garcia’s ability. I have zero doubt he will he fine in his role.

 

I like some of the arms in AAA and would like to see them get some looks this Season. Depth is good. Lets use that to build a better roster.

Edited February 1, 2024 by Jonn
No

[max silver]

I would rather his money be allocated elsewhere once again not that difficult. Jays have a good Bullpen. They can trade from strength to address other concerns? Like either you don’t know a tax penalty exists or you’re purposely ignoring it. This isn’t even about Garcia’s ability. I have zero doubt he will he fine in his role.

 

I like some of the arms in AAA and would like to see them get some looks this Season. Depth is good. Lets use that to build a better roster.

 

Yimi Garcia's $6 million salary should have zero bearing on the front office's ability to add more talent to the roster. The tax penalty is basically peanuts as far as actual money outlay in concerned as only overages are actually taxed, and unless a team blows past the final tax level there really isn't much of a penalty beyond a small extra financial outlay. If Garcia is traded then this essentially means replacing one of the team's more effective relievers with a depth arm, surely you can see the folly in such a move. I'd infinitely prefer the depth arms be utilized to cover the team in case of injury and/or underperformance and make the minor league guys force their way onto the roster through effective performance rather than force one of them onto the roster prematurely by trading away a primary reliever.

 

Garcia is primarily a single inning reliever, and only has a single year of remaining control. He likely only had a few million dollars of excess value. What do you expect that the team would be able to receive in return that actually improves their chances to win vs what Garcia is going to provide? The team is in the middle of a competitive window so it makes no sense to remove important contributors to take flyers on low level prospects at this time.

[DonJays]

Manoah will bounce back just like Berrios did last year. He might not be an ace but he should be a solid SP3 or so. He shouldn't have as many haters as he does, especially from Blue Jays fans.

 

The hate is warranted and no he will not bounce back

[Jays24]

The hate is warranted and no he will not bounce back

 

People said the same thing about Berrios and were crying about him. A stud prospect who had a stud like year is allowed one bad season.

 

The whole premise of our offseason currently is that our entire batting lineup will bounce back but Manoah won't. Just think it's foolish but we'll find out soon enough.

[Jays24]

Kirk has had one poor offensive season in his entire career but of course you are going to completely overreact like usual and call the Jansen/Kirk combination gross. Never mind the fact they are projected for over 4 wins combined.

 

You make it sound like Kirk is some 10 year vet with a vast history of being good to great. He's been crap/average as much as he's been good/great. The truth is probably somewhere in the middle.

 

This doesn't even include the fact he lost all his power apparently and clogs the bases even when he does get on base. Think most would agree that we are still missing at least 1 elite bat at the top of the order to move everyone down a peg where they belong.

[max silver]

You make it sound like Kirk is some 10 year vet with a vast history of being good to great. He's been crap/average as much as he's been good/great. The truth is probably somewhere in the middle.

This doesn't even include the fact he lost all his power apparently and clogs the bases even when he does get on base. Think most would agree that we are still missing at least 1 elite bat at the top of the order to move everyone down a peg where they belong.

 

Check out Kirk's career numbers since his first full professional season and see if you can figure out which one stands out from the others.

 

2018 R 160 wRC+

2019 A/A+ 158 wRC+

2020 MLB 165 wRC+

2021 AAA 143 wRC+

2021 MLB 106 wRC+

2022 129 wRC+

2023 96 wRC+

 

The only other year where Kirk wasn't solidly above average offensively was his short MLB stint in 2021 where he still produced a 106 wRC. His quality of contact was excellent and his xwOBA of .373 vs actual of .330 suggested he was rather unlucky that particular season. He's been below average a grand total of once in his entire professional career.

[Jays24]

Check out Kirk's career numbers since his first full professional season and see if you can figure out which one stands out from the others.

 

2018 R 160 wRC+

2019 A/A+ 158 wRC+

2020 MLB 165 wRC+

2021 AAA 143 wRC+

2021 MLB 106 wRC+

2022 129 wRC+

2023 96 wRC+

 

The only other year where Kirk wasn't solidly above average offensively was his short MLB stint in 2021 where he still produced a 106 wRC. His quality of contact was excellent and his xwOBA of .373 vs actual of .330 suggested he was rather unlucky that particular season. He's been below average a grand total of once in his entire professional career.

 

Dude, I don't give a crap about AAA numbers. Most players in the majors raked in the minors, which is why they're even in the majors. It's all about how they perform in the major league level. Based on that, Kirk is just as likely to be an average hitter as he is an above average one.

 

Now I don't want this to be misconstrued because I do have faith Kirk is a good hitter but he does not have a track record in the majors to be super confident one way or another.

 

Also, I hate that he's a fat f*** who clogs the bases and needs more rest than the average player because of his body even though he's in his early 20s lol.

[max silver]

Dude, I don't give a crap about AAA numbers. Most players in the majors raked in the minors, which is why they're even in the majors. It's all about how they perform in the major league level. Based on that, Kirk is just as likely to be an average hitter as he is an above average one.

 

Now I don't want this to be misconstrued because I do have faith Kirk is a good hitter but he does not have a track record in the majors to be super confident one way or another.

 

Also, I hate that he's a fat f*** who clogs the bases and needs more rest than the average player because of his body even though he's in his early 20s lol.

 

What in the world are you even basing this on? Kirk has a career 114 wRC in MLB, is projected from a low of 107 to a high of 122 wRC+ by the various projection systems, absolutely torched the minor leagues, and runs elite BB/K ratios all throughout his career. There's no need to place such an overwhelming level of emphasis on a single season, it's nonsense like this that had led to the hot takes of George Springer being finished at the plate, Varsho is never going to hit, Vlad should be traded for peanuts etc.

[Terminator]

Kirk will either be above average or he won't. It's 50/50

[max silver]

Kirk will either be above average or he won't. It's 50/50

 

I'd wager it's more like 80/20 that he's above average.

[Jays24]

What in the world are you even basing this on? Kirk has a career 114 wRC in MLB, is projected from a low of 107 to a high of 122 wRC+ by the various projection systems, absolutely torched the minor leagues, and runs elite BB/K ratios all throughout his career. There's no need to place such an overwhelming level of emphasis on a single season, it's nonsense like this that had led to the hot takes of George Springer being finished at the plate, Varsho is never going to hit, Vlad should be traded for peanuts etc.

 

Springer has YEARS of success so anyone who says he can bounce back is more likely to be right. Varsho and Kirk do not have this track record hitting wise at the major league level. Kirk/Varsho are just as likely to be bad at the plate as they are good, that's all my point is.

 

Now i need your help on this buy does wRC+ account for base running? Kirk's baserunning cost us plenty of runs the past few years. That should also be factored into his overall offensive value but not sure how that can be measured properly.

[max silver]

Springer has YEARS of success so anyone who says he can bounce back is more likely to be right. Varsho and Kirk do not have this track record hitting wise at the major league level. Kirk/Varsho are just as likely to be bad at the plate as they are good, that's all my point is.

 

What you're also not considering for Kirk is what I said about him clogging the bases. He cost us plenty of runs the past few years because he's a fatty. That should also be factored into his overall offensive value.

 

Kirk is not as likely to be bad at the plate as he is to be good, there is simply no basis in fact that would lead one to this conclusion. If he has another disappointing season at the plate then his projections will be adjusted downwards accordingly.

 

I don't care about Kirk clogging the bases as that's largely beyond his control. I'd much rather see him on base 35% of the time and not come around as often as a faster player than see a more typically slow catcher on base only 30% of the time if not even less. He's always going to be one of baseball's slowest players due to his naturally stocky build so there's no reason to hate him for this. The extra weight he's carried around his midsection doesn't help anything but he can't help that he's really short and hampered further by having incredibly short legs on top of that. It's easy to see the guy wouldn't have a lot of fast twitch muscle potential either with his natural frame so he's never going to resemble Ben Johnson on the bases no matter how much weight he drops.

[Jays24]

Kirk is not as likely to be bad at the plate as he is to be good, there is simply no basis in fact that would lead one to this conclusion. If he has another disappointing season at the plate then his projections will be adjusted downwards accordingly.

 

I don't care about Kirk clogging the bases as that's largely beyond his control. I'd much rather see him on base 35% of the time and not come around as often as a faster player than see a more typically slow catcher on base only 30% of the time if not even less. He's always going to be one of baseball's slowest players due to his naturally stocky build so there's no reason to hate him for this. The extra weight he's carried around his midsection doesn't help anything but he can't help that he's really short and hampered further by having incredibly short legs on top of that. It's easy to see the guy wouldn't have a lot of fast twitch muscle potential either with his natural frame so he's never going to resemble Ben Johnson on the bases no matter how much weight he drops.

 

Ya I'm with you on most of what you said except the weight not being in "his control". Everyones weight is within their own control.

 

I do have faith he'll be a good hitter but just not sure if it'll be good enough to justify batting 5th for a World Series contender. Please just add one more great hitter and we'll be set on paper.

[max silver]

Ya I'm with you on most of what you said except the weight not being in "his control". Everyones weight is within their own control.

 

I do have faith he'll be a good hitter but just not sure if it'll be good enough to justify batting 5th for a World Series contender. Please just add one more great hitter and we'll be set on paper.

 

I never once said that Kirk's weight isn't within his control. I was simply outlining that the best we could likely ever hope for him is to become less slow on the bases due to his naturally stocky build. He's dropped about a foot per second of speed on the bases over the last few seasons so hopefully he could at least regain that bit of lost speed if he slims down a bit. The loss of top speed has had negligible effects on his splits however as his 90 foot time has gone from 4.44 seconds to all of 4.49 seconds. It would be fantastic if he were to manage to drop 50 pounds but he's not going to morph into Mookie Betts as he simply isn't an explosive type of athlete and never will be.

[Carlos Danger]

 

Reading between the lines

 

They couldn't get anything they wanted in return for him and they're giving him a chance to make the rotation out of spring training

 

This could also be some Psych op to make teams believe they are fine with keeping him, and to up their offers. When in reality the Jays want to be rid of him like a bad case of the crabs..

[Key22]

Does anyone know what the Tidemann timeline is right now? He is expected to get his coffee the second half of this year or is he more viewed as a 2025 call-up?

[L54]

Does anyone know what the Tidemann timeline is right now? He is expected to get his coffee the second half of this year or is he more viewed as a 2025 call-up?

 

If he’s healthy he’ll be in the majors this year

[Spanky99]

Springer has YEARS of success so anyone who says he can bounce back is more likely to be right. Varsho and Kirk do not have this track record hitting wise at the major league level. Kirk/Varsho are just as likely to be bad at the plate as they are good, that's all my point is.

 

Now i need your help on this buy does wRC+ account for base running? Kirk's baserunning cost us plenty of runs the past few years. That should also be factored into his overall offensive value but not sure how that can be measured properly.

 

lol... in one breath you mention the former, but use Berrios and Manoah as examples in another, pick a lane dude.

 

As for the 2nd paragraph, are you serious? lmfao

[Spanky99]

Well, considering the offseason so far, the Jays are projecting to hope 4 players project to their mean. The variance of those numbers are what happens to be what I believe. 3 wins either way as a team as a whole. I'd imagine to the guesstimation.

 

Dear God... you sound like Trudeau. Just answer the damn question man loll

 

Don't ever link me to that POS's name.

 

Smh so the variance is your prediction . Weak sauce.

 

Moving on to people who will actually put number in their response

 

The answer was explained above.

 

The offseason isn't over yet moron's, they're likely projected a high 80 win, team so the variance is likely 86 - 92 wins. I'll go with 90 as is, now where's your predictions ya dingleberries.

[Stottlemyres_Bloody_Chin]

Shut it Trudeau, err...Spankage

[Spanky99]

Shut it Trudeau, err...Spankage

 

Go teabag your leader, bitch.

[Spanky99]

That’s encouraging, if you did a poll around here I think most would say Springer is washed and an albatross.

 

I still think he’s got a couple years left in the tank. Just had a down year last year like most if the lineup.

 

Kirk was 6th at C and people talk as though he's s***, the ole recency bias.

[Spanky99]

I'd wager it's more like 80/20 that he's above average.

 

Term is clearly joking dude, well, I think.

[Jays24]

Don't ever link me to that POS's name.

 

 

 

The answer was explained above.

 

The offseason isn't over yet moron's, they're likely projected a high 80 win, team so the variance is likely 86 - 92 wins. I'll go with 90 as is, now where's your predictions ya dingleberries.

 

LOL so basically you have no opinions of your own based on what you see. Instead of posting, just use a fangraphs link going forward and let those numbers speak for you.

 

Be warned though, it'll make you have takes like thinking Kirk is a better baserunner than Moreno lol

[Spanky99]

LOL so basically you have no opinions of your own based on what you see. Instead of posting, just use a fangraphs link going forward and let those numbers speak for you.

 

Be warned though, it'll make you have takes like thinking Kirk is a better baserunner than Moreno lol

 

You're a f***ing idiot, I put 90 wins down... what say you Chief? I said Kirk had better baserunning numbers than Moreno at the time of the post, which was 100% accurate. Coming from a clown that has no idea how analytics or projections work, this is f***ing rich, lmao.