General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2024)

[MikeM3]

bookmarked

 

Varsho with a hitting instructor guru who tells him what pitch is coming through telekinesis and real time virtual reality based on the opposing pitcher's vaa above expected and seam shifted wake > Moreno

 

Varsho with Mattingly or Guillermo or Hudgens or this guy Hague? Wait how many of these guys are we gonna try

[Laika]

Varsho with a hitting instructor guru who tells him what pitch is coming through telekinesis and real time virtual reality based on the opposing pitcher's vaa above expected and seam shifted wake > Moreno

 

Varsho with Mattingly or Guillermo or Hudgens or this guy Hague? Wait how many of these guys are we gonna try

 

I don't really disagree. The tool gap between Varsho and Moreno is pretty big.

Most Varsho haters don't realize that he only needs to get incrementally better with the bat the be a 4 win OF again.

 

Moreno on the other hand showed rather disappointing overall athleticism and despite decent 2023 results may have showed off a limited ceiling. Perhaps just another pudgy catcher with one offensive carrying tool (most of the time it's power, but not for him).

[max silver]

I don't really disagree. The tool gap between Varsho and Moreno is pretty big.

Most Varsho haters don't realize that he only needs to get incrementally better with the bat the be a 4 win OF again.

 

Moreno on the other hand showed rather disappointing overall athleticism and despite decent 2023 results may have showed off a limited ceiling. Perhaps just another pudgy catcher with one offensive carrying tool (most of the time it's power, but not for him).

 

Let's compare what each of Moreno and Kirk had accomplished in their respective careers with nearly identical levels of playing time up to the point of comparison at the point where Moreno currently sits.

 

Moreno 453PA 104 wRC+ 2.4 FWAR

Kirk 451 PA 143 wRC+ 3.7 FWAR

 

I think Kirk is a more talented hitter with a higher offensive ceiling and right now he's arguably the more complete defender as well. Much like was the case with Moreno Kirk's numbers receive a massive boost from a hot streak, but the duration and strength of this hot streak far more impressive and likely to be reproducible in the future compared to what Moreno produced.

 

Moreno 92 PA .349/.413/.627 179 wRC+ 8.7% BB 19.6% K 0.4 BB/K .400 BABIP 35.7% HR/FB

Kirk 172 PA .361/.448/.639 211 wRC+12.2% BB 9.3% K 1.31 BB/K .352 BABIP 23.3% HR/FB

 

There are a lot of indicators that outline how Moreno's hot streak is going to be very difficult to replicate, including a sky high .400 BABIP and unsustainable 35.7% home run to fly ball rate. A lot of Kirk's success was driven by elite bat to ball skills as evidenced by the superb 1.31 BB/K ratio, and far more reasonable BABIP and home run per fly ball ratios.

[max silver]

Max has entered the chat so it’s time to leave

 

Yup time to tuck tail and run away.

[Laika]

Let's compare what each of Moreno and Kirk had accomplished in their respective careers with nearly identical levels of playing time up to the point of comparison at the point where Moreno currently sits.

 

Moreno 453PA 104 wRC+ 2.4 FWAR

Kirk 451 PA 143 wRC+ 3.7 FWAR

 

I think Kirk is a more talented hitter with a higher offensive ceiling and right now he's arguably the more complete defender as well. Much like was the case with Moreno Kirk's numbers receive a massive boost from a hot streak, but the duration and strength of this hot streak far more impressive and likely to be reproducible in the future compared to what Moreno produced.

 

Moreno 92 PA .349/.413/.627 179 wRC+ 8.7% BB 19.6% K 0.4 BB/K .400 BABIP 35.7% HR/FB

Kirk 172 PA .361/.448/.639 211 wRC+12.2% BB 9.3% K 1.31 BB/K .352 BABIP 23.3% HR/FB

 

There are a lot of indicators that outline how Moreno's hot streak is going to be very difficult to replicate, including a sky high .400 BABIP and unsustainable 35.7% home run to fly ball rate. A lot of Kirk's success was driven by elite bat to ball skills as evidenced by the superb 1.31 BB/K ratio, and far more reasonable BABIP and home run per fly ball ratios.

 

I still think Moreno is good

 

He just MIGHT be more Travis d'Arnaud or Christian Vasquez than some people think

[Brownie19]

Brownie is just so worldly and all seeing. Really quite impressive what he can accomplish from a message board about the business of baseball. Pure wisdom.

 

I don't think the suggestion that you should take anything a GM, Manager or Player says during a press conference with a grain of salt because it's just media talk, is pure wisdom or that I think I'm all that important. I think it's common sense. Yet everything there's a press conference, there are people dissecting what was said, bitching about it, drawing conclusions, etc. It's really sad to hear that people are still grasping to comments made 7+ years ago and holding grudge because they don't believe they've delivered on these "promises".

 

What's funny is that a lot of this may simply be a misunderstanding or a difference of opinion as to what a "contender" really is. Is that making, or being in the playoff race every year? (which we've done for 4 straight years and are in position to make it 5 or 6). Or is that winning multiple rounds and contending for a WS? (which we haven't done). Are we a "window" team, or are we a perpetual contender? How many contributing prospects constitutes a "wave"? That all really depends on who you ask.

 

I just got told we don't want to be like the Yankees because they haven't won the WS since 2009. Making the playoffs in 24 of the last 29 years (including 5 WS wins) isn't good enough for some fans I guess - which highlights the massive difference that fans have in terms of their expectations.

Edited January 4, 2024 by Brownie19

[Eat My Shatkins]

If you make the playoffs you're a contender.

[Dick_Pole]

Are people really still clinging to some promise the FO made about "waves of talent" and "sustainable winning" from 7 years ago? I've told you guys multiple times to stop listening to anything a GM, Manager or Player tells you during a press conference FFS. It's just scripted media talk - they literally train people on how to speak to the media.

 

I mean - perhaps they laid it on a bit too thick and should have known there are so many gullible fans out there who would hold onto those promises and throw it in their face 7 years later. Is there a GM out there who isn't trying to draft and develop waves of talent? Are there GM's who don't want to build a sustainable winner? I guess he could have told us the truth - that like every GM in baseball "We're going to try to draft and develop as best we can as draft picks provided the biggest opportunity for excess value, which will give us a chance for sustainable winning. But drafting and developing is a crapshoot - very few are able to do this consistently over a long period of time - and those that do often have a lot of factors simply go their way - so no promises we can deliver".

 

I truly do not understand this narrative. Everyone goes into a job or challenge or school or whatever hoping they will succeed.

 

Olympic athlete says he will win gold. He finishes 5th. Country is not allowed to be disappointed! He really meant he'll finish 5th when he said he would win.

 

Student goes to class thinking he will get an A. He got a C. Parents not allowed to be disappointed! Instead of him going to law or medical school, he'll be sleeping on his parents couch to age 40 while waiting tables for a living. But that's okay, he really meant he was going to get a C all along.

 

Politician promises sunny ways and equality and happiness for all, including the middle and working class. Instead there's an affordability crisis of rent and food and an entire generation of people have complete economic hopelessness. But that's okay! You should have assumed he was a sleazy failure all along and just expected it because other countries are doing slightly worse. Vote for him again and like it!

 

Atkins said he will be good as his job. Seven years later there are no post-season wins and a bottom-third farm despite a healthy payroll. Some good moves, some bad moves, but overall not good enough. That's okay though, we should just accept that because he was just talking ******** all along.

[Dick_Pole]

Even if Atkins said back in 2017 "we are going to be ass at drafting and decent at handling the MLB roster but not quite good enough to win anything" while wearing a JP Ricciardi mask, I would still have the same opinion about him. The only one pushing this offhand comment back in 2017 is Brownie. In some kind of twisted way to try to defend him because we shouldn't believe what people with privilege and power say and should just accept the crumbs they give us.

[L54]

Even if Atkins said back in 2017 "we are going to be ass at drafting and decent at handling the MLB roster but not quite good enough to win anything" while wearing a JP Ricciardi mask, I would still have the same opinion about him. The only one pushing this offhand comment back in 2017 is Brownie. In some kind of twisted way to try to defend him because we shouldn't believe what people with privilege and power say and should just accept the crumbs they give us.

 

Strange behaviour to say the least

[Dick_Pole]

There are three ways to interpret the Varsho-Moreno trade which look bad on this FO:

 

1. Atkins totally misplayed his hand and made a bad deal. Selling low on Moreno and/or buying high on Varsho.

2. The deal was fine. Moreno had no actual value. But then Arizona tapped into something and made him a superstar.

3. The deal was fine. Moreno was a top prospect but Varsho was also a good player under years of control. The Jays then proceeded to ruin him to the point that his bat shouldn't be in any contending MLB team's lineup.

 

There is only one way that Atkins can save face on it. Laika has written about 500 words on this topic on this board and Max about 50,000 words but it can be summed up as follows:

 

Moreno was lucky last year and success for him is unsustainable. Varsho was unlucky last year and will improve this year and going forward.

 

Okay, that's all well and good. That still doesn't move the needle much for me though. Varsho could be a 6 WAR player next year and the Jays win 90 games (he pretty much has to achieve 6 WAR for the Jays to get to 90 wins if the rest of the roster performs similarly to last year). The Jays then get trounced in the first round. Same s***. The team no longer lost on the Varsho trade but the other pile of things that went wrong still went wrong. The Varsho trade is just a lightning rod for the overall frustration of fans. I already explained this in the past.

[Terminator]

All that matters is drafting and development and development of mlb players. All the good moves Atkins makes at mlb level are band aids.

 

He's really really good at those but you can see how we get passed by draft and develop orgs.

 

The bottom is about to fall out, how is that not insanely obvious? We're red lining our payroll and he's hitting on every 32 year old we sign.

 

In relation to 2010 team building, Atkins is basically god. But team building in 2024 is different.

 

Research scientists (ironically from U of T) are writing research papers on how having positional roster flexibility adds 1-2 war because baseball is actually like manufacturing.

 

All our 40 FV prospects are at LF/DH

 

Yeah the biggest criticism is player development and that's a huge one. But I'm not sure that the book has been written yet. A couple of strong debuts from the group in AAA which includes Tiedemann (55 FV), Orelvis (50), Barger (45), Jimenez (45), Connor Cooke (40+) or Horwitz (40) and the narrative can change. There's also Zulueta (45), Palmegiani (35+) and Hayden Juenger (35+).

 

I also am not sure that the bolded part is accurate. For anyone 40 FV and up I see five 3B (most of them seem to be multi-positional as well), a SS, a CF and a RF. There's only one LF (Roden) and one DH type (Horwitz).

[Brownie19]

I truly do not understand this narrative. Everyone goes into a job or challenge or school or whatever hoping they will succeed.

 

Olympic athlete says he will win gold. He finishes 5th. Country is not allowed to be disappointed! He really meant he'll finish 5th when he said he would win.

 

Student goes to class thinking he will get an A. He got a C. Parents not allowed to be disappointed! Instead of him going to law or medical school, he'll be sleeping on his parents couch to age 40 while waiting tables for a living. But that's okay, he really meant he was going to get a C all along.

 

Politician promises sunny ways and equality and happiness for all, including the middle and working class. Instead there's an affordability crisis of rent and food and an entire generation of people have complete economic hopelessness. But that's okay! You should have assumed he was a sleazy failure all along and just expected it because other countries are doing slightly worse. Vote for him again and like it!

 

Atkins said he will be good as his job. Seven years later there are no post-season wins and a bottom-third farm despite a healthy payroll. Some good moves, some bad moves, but overall not good enough. That's okay though, we should just accept that because he was just talking ******** all along.

 

Nah man - you're not understanding this very well. It would be more like this

 

Olympic athlete says his goal is to win the gold - because well, what athlete goes in front of the public and tells you the honest truth that it's unlikely he'll ever win gold - especially when they're trying to get sponsorships. Athlete trains his ass off and finishes 3rd. There are always factors and other competition working against him and he does his very best. Have you ever seen a country kick someone off the team because they didn't deliver on their promise to win? I mean outside of someone who's extremely favored to win - have you ever seen a country turn on someone who finished in bronze instead of gold?

 

Again - this is all perspective. From my perspective, we've been a contender the past 4 years and will again for another couple unless things go really far south. I don't use playoff wins as a measure because even the very best teams in baseball get bounced regularly with few to no wins. Others view playoff wins as the biggest measure (or one of them). They must view Baltimore, LA and Atlanta as massive failures last year. I certainly don't. Most of this is just a difference of opinion.

[Terminator]

Oh come on, the "42 years of control" is something normy dipshits were complaining about when they didn't think we got enough for Aaron Sanchez at the trade deadline. It then reached a fever pitch after Sanchez started a combined no hitter before making three more starts and getting hurt. Overall he gave the Astros -0.2 WAR that year. He was completely washed and we weren't going to get much for him.

 

The esteemed members of the BJMB (the greatest Blue Jays themed message board in history) are way too smart to care about that quote.

[BigCecil]

I truly do not understand this narrative. Everyone goes into a job or challenge or school or whatever hoping they will succeed.

 

Olympic athlete says he will win gold. He finishes 5th. Country is not allowed to be disappointed! He really meant he'll finish 5th when he said he would win.

 

Student goes to class thinking he will get an A. He got a C. Parents not allowed to be disappointed! Instead of him going to law or medical school, he'll be sleeping on his parents couch to age 40 while waiting tables for a living. But that's okay, he really meant he was going to get a C all along.

 

Politician promises sunny ways and equality and happiness for all, including the middle and working class. Instead there's an affordability crisis of rent and food and an entire generation of people have complete economic hopelessness. But that's okay! You should have assumed he was a sleazy failure all along and just expected it because other countries are doing slightly worse. Vote for him again and like it!

 

Atkins said he will be good as his job. Seven years later there are no post-season wins and a bottom-third farm despite a healthy payroll. Some good moves, some bad moves, but overall not good enough. That's okay though, we should just accept that because he was just talking ******** all along.

 

Exactly lol. The irony I'm ashamed to admit is I actually remember Brownie a few years back posting quoting some of Shapiro's media comments that teams didn't need to be a "window" teams if you had the "waves" coming up from the farm making them perpetual contenders. "Windows" just weren't necessary anymore. He then proceeded to name a bunch of picks and prospects who were to be those "waves" that have since got dealt away or died on the vine.

 

Today we learn from him that we should have never paid any attention to any of it anyway because it was always just media ********.

 

Ya, sure often CEOS and GMs do media speak in all businesses. We all know that. That doesn't mean they won't be held accountable for forecasts missed and performance. And every business to some degree is affected by luck - good or bad.

[Dick_Pole]

Exactly lol

 

^^^ This dude was a former politician. Presumably eventually voted out in embarrassing fashion after years of sucking at the public teat as a champagne socialist. He knows a little something about need to account for job performance sooner or later.

[Terminator]

Is there a way to adjust the games played for a steamer projection?

 

As we all know I correctly called the Ernie Clement breakout last year. Steamer now projects him for a 93 wRC+ which will play for a UT guy that can handle 3B, SS and 2B.

 

They also project him for 0.1 WAR in 5 games. If you extrapolate that out to 150 games that would be 3 WAR. But because 5 games is so low any sort of rounding that is being done gets magnified big time. For example, if he's actually worth .06 WAR per 5 games that's 1.8 WAR per 150 games.

 

Either way, seems like Steamer likes him but it's hard to tell how much.

[BigCecil]

Oh come on, the "42 years of control" is something normy dipshits were complaining about when they didn't think we got enough for Aaron Sanchez at the trade deadline. It then reached a fever pitch after Sanchez started a combined no hitter before making three more starts and getting hurt. Overall he gave the Astros -0.2 WAR that year. He was completely washed and we weren't going to get much for him.

 

The esteemed members of the BJMB (the greatest Blue Jays themed message board in history) are way too smart to care about that quote.

 

Picky picky. Don't blame me for Ross's dumb ass statements. Ya, we all know Sanchez wasn't going to fetch the King's jewels. Hey the Derrick Fisher stuff all turned out to give this Board some good yucks and I listed both fames and shames not previously mentioned.

[Terminator]

Picky picky. Don't blame me for Ross's dumb ass statements. Ya, we all know Sanchez wasn't going to fetch the King's jewels. Hey the Derrick Fisher stuff all turned out to give this Board some good yucks and I listed both fames and shames not previously mentioned.

 

You did fine to add more good and bad to the list but I don't think a soundbite regarding trading Aaron Sanchez and other slop for younger slop should be considered a black mark against him lol. Let the Jays subreddit and Twitter fume over that one. They have the requisite IQs to allow something like that to actually make them mad anyway.

[Dick_Pole]

Is there a way to adjust the games played for a steamer projection?

 

As we all know I correctly called the Ernie Clement breakout last year. Steamer now projects him for a 93 wRC+ which will play for a UT guy that can handle 3B, SS and 2B.

 

They also project him for 0.1 WAR in 5 games. If you extrapolate that out to 150 games that would be 3 WAR. But because 5 games is so low any sort of rounding that is being done gets magnified big time. For example, if he's actually worth .06 WAR per 5 games that's 1.8 WAR per 150 games.

 

Either way, seems like Steamer likes him but it's hard to tell how much.

 

My guess would be that players with such a small amount of projected playing time would have WAR greatly overstated because they would tend to be used in niche roles that cater to their strengths. Defensive replacements, pinch runners, pinch hitters.

[BigCecil]

^^^ This dude was a former politician. Presumably eventually voted out in embarrassing fashion after years of sucking at the public teat as a champagne socialist. He knows a little something about need to account for job performance sooner or later.

 

Lol. Ya, I've also been a CEO IPO'ing companies. Co-founded 3 companies I bought then sold. President and CEO of others I still own a piece of. Done lots of media speak.

 

Dealt with US sub prime meltdown. Asian flu. Argentina devaluing their currency. Bre-X market impact. Russian invading Ukraine covid. etc etc etc. All stuff few expected. Luck plays in every business and in politics I've ever been in, Baseball is the same. You have to be good to be lucky and lucky to be good. Wander Franco says hello.

 

At the end of the day execs get some quarter for unforeseen challenges, but ultimately at some point they get judged on performance. No escape. Sometimes its fair and sometimes its not.

[BigCecil]

You did fine to add more good and bad to the list but I don't think a soundbite regarding trading Aaron Sanchez and other slop for younger slop should be considered a black mark against him lol. Let the Jays subreddit and Twitter fume over that one. They have the requisite IQs to allow something like that to actually make them mad anyway.

 

Ok Terminator. I thank you for your scolding and sage advice. Maybe it was a touch of a cheap shot...not that I'm above those.

[Dick_Pole]

Lol. Ya, I've also been a CEO IPO'ing companies. Co-founded 3 companies I bought then sold. President and CEO of others I still own a piece of. Done lots of media speak.

 

Dealt with US sub prime meltdown. Asian flu. Argentina devaluing their currency. Bre-X market impact. Russian invading Ukraine covid. etc etc etc. All stuff few expected. Luck plays in every business and in politics I've ever been in, Baseball is the same. You have to be good to be lucky and lucky to be good.

 

At the end of the day execs get some quarter for unforeseen challenges, but ultimately at some point they get judged on performance. No escape. Sometimes its fair and sometimes its not.

 

But did you ever have to deal with a Gen Z fatass who was a Cy Young runner up and thinks he's top s***? Averting nuclear war is child's play to that! Give the man a break!

[Terminator]

My guess would be that players with such a small amount of projected playing time would have WAR greatly overstated because they would tend to be used in niche roles that cater to their strengths. Defensive replacements, pinch runners, pinch hitters.

 

Yeah that could definitely be the case as well.

 

I just checked Zips and they project him for a .270/.311/.390 slash line and 1.1 WAR in 366 PAs.

 

So he definitely seems like he could stick as a bench player.

[Brownie19]

Exactly lol. The irony I'm ashamed to admit is I actually remember Brownie a few years back posting quoting some of Shapiro's media comments that teams didn't need to be a "window" teams if you had the "waves" coming up from the farm making them perpetual contenders. "Windows" just weren't necessary anymore. He then proceeded to name a bunch of picks and prospects who were to be those "waves" that have since got dealt away or died on the vine.

 

Today we learn from him that we should have never paid any attention to any of it anyway because it was always just media ********.

 

Ya, sure often CEOS and GMs do media speak in all businesses. We all know that. That doesn't mean they won't be held accountable for forecasts missed and performance. And every business to some degree is affected by luck - good or bad.

 

I'm sorry - I'll stop trying to learn and make personal improvements to better myself and my knowledge of baseball. Please continue to throw things that you think I've said in my face (with no proof - and of course I don't remember) from years ago. You must actually be a former politician.

[Terminator]

I reaaaally wish that woman was still running the Marlins.

 

Imagine what we could get from her with all of the cute slap hitting infielders we've got. Package Espinal, Biggio and Clement together and we might be able to get Jazz Chisholm off of them.

[Brownie19]

At the end of the day execs get some quarter for unforeseen challenges, but ultimately at some point they get judged on performance. No escape. Sometimes its fair and sometimes its not.

 

Agree with all of that (and am not trying to suggest otherwise). The reality is that what you and I believe to be acceptable performance may be drastically different - and neither opinion matters. It's what the FO/Ownership believe.

 

When you were a CEO, were you judged based on the promises you made to the President and/or BOD? Or were you judged on the based on the media talk to the general public? I suspect that quite often, those may have been different messages.

[Laika]

Is there a way to adjust the games played for a steamer projection?

 

As we all know I correctly called the Ernie Clement breakout last year. Steamer now projects him for a 93 wRC+ which will play for a UT guy that can handle 3B, SS and 2B.

 

They also project him for 0.1 WAR in 5 games. If you extrapolate that out to 150 games that would be 3 WAR. But because 5 games is so low any sort of rounding that is being done gets magnified big time. For example, if he's actually worth .06 WAR per 5 games that's 1.8 WAR per 150 games.

 

Either way, seems like Steamer likes him but it's hard to tell how much.

 

They should definitely make a tool on Fangraphs to apply the different projection systems to your own playing time / depth chart assumptions. Would be useful.

 

Or just a little "WAR Estimator" tool where you plug in a few parameters (wRC+, position, PA, BsR, and UZR/150) and it spits out a WAR estimate.

 

Because as it stands I think most people think in a weird mashup of rate stats like wOBA and absolutely value stats like UZR and BsR and it's hard to do napkin math on it all without trying to look up comparables.

 

A lot of the time I do things like... just bucket a player as "average defensive SS with a 110 wRC+" and then look up comparables from last year close to that.

[Dick_Pole]

At the end of the day, the Atkins bootlickers and fanboys should be very worried. I'm a bellwether. I was one of the first people to call out his nerdy beta behaviour back in the Stroman days but I've also staunchly defended him on issues like the Morales signing and Donaldson trade. I've defended him as recently as the Ohtani situation, where there was a meltdown of people thinking he was used as a sucker and instead should have been throwing the kitchen sink at Soto.

 

The changing narrative from "big moves this offseason" to "IKF's getting 600 PA this year lulz" is what has turned me into a decided voter. This is the equivalent of the Republicans losing Florida. It's only downhill for him from here. It'll take a miracle to change things.

 

I compare Atkins and Shapiro to Ujiri and Webster. Granted, the Raptors have a championship to their name but the Raptors brass are almost universally beloved by fans despite there not being a massive difference between the two front offices. What sets the Raptors guys apart is that they did two extremely ballsy moves that panned out and changed the course of the franchise. First, trading for Leonard, and second, drafting Barnes above his projected slot position. The first resulting in a championship and the second extending the life of a franchise that was destined to be a basement dweller for a while. Still waiting on Atkins to make his ballsy move.

[deanmike]

BNS says he thinks the team views Davis Schneider as someone they can use in LF this season. If true, this instantly causes a massive change in what the remaining needs of the team are. They would no longer "need" to add a Grichuk/Duvall type to play LF against LHP starters.

 

He also thinks that outside of a Joc type DH/OF addition they will probably also add another option to cover at least some 3B innings (mentioned possibilities like Turner or a Polanco trade).

 

Lineup vs RHP could be

C Jansen/Kirk

1B Vlad

2B Schneider/Biggio

3B Biggio/Turner/IKF

SS Bichette

LF Varsho/Joc

CF Kiermaier/Varsho

RF Springer

DH Joc/Turner

 

Lineup vs LHP could be

C Jansen/Kirk

1B Turner/Vlad

2B Espinal

3B IKF

SS Bichette

LF Schneider

CF Varsho

RF Springer

DH Vlad/Turner

 

Then whatever is left of the 27M after completing position player adds could probably be used on adding pitching depth.