Davis Schneider appreciation thread

[Spanky99]

Was Jeff Kent ever a highly regarded prospect?

 

Yes.

[Spanky99]

Schneider'd be in the top 100 easy if he doesn't break eligibility status, no doubt.

[Sorrow]

My friends Schneider had tied KK for third in fWAR at 2.2 in 21 games: the question becomes does he pass Chapman and Bo at 3.2 and 3.3.

[gruber92]

My friends Schneider had tied KK for third in fWAR at 2.2 in 21 games: the question becomes does he pass Chapman and Bo at 3.2 and 3.3.

 

Wow

[Grant77]

Was Jeff Kent ever a highly regarded prospect?

 

We traded him for the best available starter at the trade deadline, just for some context.

[bigshot84]

now manager John schenieder making mistake that putting Davis schenieder to number 4 spot, which blue jays historically make those mistakes to give pressure to rookie guy.

 

Years ago Vernon wells was good hitter because of Delgado, not by himself he was good hitter, so hope we get good number 4 hitter and put Davis Schenieder to number 5 spot

[keggy]

If Schneider wasn't carrying us to 4-3 victories over last place teams we would honestly be out of a playoff spot today.

 

Atkins needs to buy Schneider a ferrari or something this offseason, he may have single handedly saved his job.

[Olerud363]

We traded him for the best available starter at the trade deadline, just for some context.

 

Not entirely true. Cone was acquired end of August 1992 after the trade deadline in a waiver deal for Jeff Kent and Ryan Thompson.

 

I don't think Kent was super highly regarded at the time, but at the same level as maybe Schneider was before this year.

 

Another interesting thing is Kent never played in aaa. He was called up as a utility man at age 24 after a solid but not spectacular season in aa.

 

Then traded again in big traded twice more (part of Carlos Baerga and Matt Williams trades).

[Olerud363]

now manager John schenieder making mistake that putting Davis schenieder to number 4 spot, which blue jays historically make those mistakes to give pressure to rookie guy.

 

Years ago Vernon wells was good hitter because of Delgado, not by himself he was good hitter, so hope we get good number 4 hitter and put Davis Schenieder to number 5 spot

 

 

This guy might be trolling but the idea of protection is so stupid that it should be studied medically. Like there has to be something going wrong in people's brains to believe this, and whatever is going wrong, if understood, could explain other things about humans that we need to improve on.

 

In 2003 Vernon Wells hit .320 .360 .550 with 220 hits, 33 homeruns, lots of rbis and runs

In 2002, 2004, 2007, 2009 he on average hit like .240 with 15 homeruns a .310 on base .420 slugging or something. In 2009 he had Adam Lind having a great year protecting him... but forgetting that for a minute.

 

1. Let's say there are different pitching patterns and they make guys better or worse.

2. The manager, pitcher and catcher decide on the pitching pattern based on who is coming up behind the hitter.

3. Carlos Delgado is coming up so we need to change the pitching pattern to keep Wells off base.

4. So they change the pitching pattern from the on that makes Wells a .240 .310 .410 hitter to one that makes him a .310 .360 .550 hitter

5. So with the intention of keeping Wells off base, they switch to a pattern that gets him on base more.

 

It's just a complete malfunction in the human brain that people have believed this in the past. I realize the current guy is probably trolling, and we've had the same conversation so many times, but the idea of people believing in 'batting order protection' is interesting medically and if studied would provide some insights to all kinds of human behavior.

[Olerud363]

This guy might be trolling but the idea of protection is so stupid that it should be studied medically. Like there has to be something going wrong in people's brains to believe this, and whatever is going wrong, if understood, could explain other things about humans that we need to improve on.

 

In 2003 Vernon Wells hit .320 .360 .550 with 220 hits, 33 homeruns, lots of rbis and runs

In 2002, 2004, 2007, 2009 he on average hit like .240 with 15 homeruns a .310 on base .420 slugging or something. In 2009 he had Adam Lind having a great year protecting him... but forgetting that for a minute.

 

1. Let's say there are different pitching patterns and they make guys better or worse.

2. The manager, pitcher and catcher decide on the pitching pattern based on who is coming up behind the hitter.

3. Carlos Delgado is coming up so we need to change the pitching pattern to keep Wells off base.

4. So they change the pitching pattern from the on that makes Wells a .240 .310 .410 hitter to one that makes him a .310 .360 .550 hitter

5. So with the intention of keeping Wells off base, they switch to a pattern that gets him on base more.

 

It's just a complete malfunction in the human brain that people have believed this in the past. I realize the current guy is probably trolling, and we've had the same conversation so many times, but the idea of people believing in 'batting order protection' is interesting medically and if studied would provide some insights to all kinds of human behavior.

 

 

There is a counter point brought up occasionally, that the protection thing is true, because guys 'press' and hit worse under pressure sometimes.

 

So say Jays get Aaron Judge, but him behind Guerrero, then Guerrero no longer feels pressure and is chilled and relaxed and goes from hitting .260 .330 .415 2023 form back to the .300 .400 .600 Guerrero and it is because of psychology.

 

If true (and I'm not saying it isn't) that theme of psychology could go along way to explain almost everything else performance wise.

 

So if pressing is a thing, then the explanation of why Baltimore, or Seattle or whoever is hitting well with guys on base, developing all their young players nicely (Julio hitting like a Julio should), why Atlanta is as a team hitting better than any single Blue Jay, could come down to these great organizations hiring the best psychologists.

 

Like AA, and the great Mike Elias, and soon the Mets with David Stearns have teams of ace psycholagists getting all the players in the perfect frame of mind (not pressing like VGJR)

[John_Havok]

There is a counter point brought up occasionally, that the protection thing is true, because guys 'press' and hit worse under pressure sometimes.

 

So say Jays get Aaron Judge, but him behind Guerrero, then Guerrero no longer feels pressure and is chilled and relaxed and goes from hitting .260 .330 .415 2023 form back to the .300 .400 .600 Guerrero and it is because of psychology.

 

If true (and I'm not saying it isn't) that theme of psychology could go along way to explain almost everything else performance wise.

 

So if pressing is a thing, then the explanation of why Baltimore, or Seattle or whoever is hitting well with guys on base, developing all their young players nicely (Julio hitting like a Julio should), why Atlanta is as a team hitting better than any single Blue Jay, could come down to these great organizations hiring the best psychologists.

 

Like AA, and the great Mike Elias, and soon the Mets with David Stearns have teams of ace psycholagists getting all the players in the perfect frame of mind (not pressing like VGJR)

 

Lineup protection is a thing, its just nowhere near as big a deal as fans make it out to be. Having anyone hit behind X player doesnt change that player's weaknesses at the plate. You can still get him out with the pitches that normally get him out if you can execute them properly. In that sense, lineup protection is a fallacy that people talk about to try and excuse a hitters failures. "Well, if only we had someone good behind him, then the pitcher would have to throw the other guy more pitches to hit, and the first guy would hit better" Meh. There is a certain logic to it but only if you consider those 2 variables in a vacuum.

 

Does having Aaron Judge hit behind you change your own mindset on what you feel you have to do at the plate? I can't think why it wouldn't have an impact at least on some level. But at the same time... it shouldn't. Any players job at the plate is a simple one, get to 1B. I think the players that are the most successful understand that simple goal and just go out there to do that. Everything that comes their way beyond getting to 1B is the result of a entire array of variables that coincide at that moment in time, just like anything less than getting to 1B is a the result of an entire array of variables that coincide in that moment in time. The hitter can only control a minimal # of things; their overall mindset/approach and their decision making to swing or not swing. Everything else is up in the air.

[The Cats Ass]

If Schneider keeps this up for the rest of the season should the team try to sign him to a long term deal in the offseason? If Schneider is legit it could be a huge value contract for us. I'm talking like a 6 year/20M + 2 team option years for 10M each type deal. Who says no?

[THANOS]

If Schneider keeps this up for the rest of the season should the team try to sign him to a long term deal in the offseason? If Schneider is legit it could be a huge value contract for us. I'm talking like a 6 year/20M + 2 team option years for 10M each type deal. Who says no?

 

This is the type of move AA has made many times in Atlanta. He signs guys young, and most of the time it works out for him.

 

The time to get best value on Davis would definitely be this offseason, if he carries this run to the end of the season.

 

If the K rate is around 25% and the BB rate stays above 15%, and the power continues, I would definitely try and extend him. I don't care if the BABIP luck starts to decline and his doubles and singles start finding gloves, if the process and approach is the same, and he's still hitting dingers, you absolutely should try and extend him imo.

[John_Havok]

If Schneider keeps this up for the rest of the season should the team try to sign him to a long term deal in the offseason? If Schneider is legit it could be a huge value contract for us. I'm talking like a 6 year/20M + 2 team option years for 10M each type deal. Who says no?

 

I doubt Schneider signs that. It would also be quite early to do so after 150~ PAs.

 

I think if the Jays want to lock him in, chances are they would do so at the end of next season at the earliest. Might be a bit more costly, but it would still be very manageable.

[John_Havok]

This is the type of move AA has made many times in Atlanta. He signs guys young, and most of the time it works out for him.

 

The time to get best value on Davis would definitely be this offseason, if he carries this run to the end of the season.

 

If the K rate is around 25% and the BB rate stays above 15%, and the power continues, I would definitely try and extend him. I don't care if the BABIP luck starts to decline and his doubles and singles start finding gloves, if the process and approach is the same, and he's still hitting dingers, you absolutely should try and extend him imo.

 

None of AA's deals are even remotely close to the possible value of 6 years 20 million with 2 options on the back end. The most inexpensive is 7/35 (albies) then 8/72 for Michael Harris, and 6/75 for Strider and 8/100 for RAJ.

[Laika]

I doubt Schneider signs that. It would also be quite early to do so after 150~ PAs.

 

I think if the Jays want to lock him in, chances are they would do so at the end of next season at the earliest. Might be a bit more costly, but it would still be very manageable.

 

I dunno. He got a $50,000 signing bonus 6 f***ing years ago and is now a nearly 25 year old father of three who nobody thought was even a prospect

 

How could he even justify turning down $20M guaranteed?

[Terminator]

I just listened to his Gibby podcast appearance. It came out a while ago but he's got a very mature approach to the plate. He was saying how he struggles with the high fastball (I'm not even sure that's true lol) but that pitcher's aren't perfect so you've got to be ready when they miss their spot.

 

It seems like the new thing is to pitch him low and away so he can't pull a flyball. But I imagine he's going to take a similar approach and will wait for the pitcher to screw up at which point he plops a 390 foot homer over the left field fence.

 

If we could take his brain and put it into Vlad's body we would have a first ballot hall of famer.

[John_Havok]

I dunno. He got a $50,000 signing bonus 6 f***ing years ago and is now a nearly 25 year old father of three who nobody thought was even a prospect

 

How could he even justify turning down $20M guaranteed?

 

How does any player justify turning down money? He bet on himself this long, what's another few seasons? Even if he holds out 1 more season and puts up 2-3 WAR

he could easily look ahead another year and figure his arbtion pay days would be on track to be far higher than a total of 20 million.

 

Yes yes yes, risk and injury and etc etc, but it's not like he's a pitcher and can be expected to shatter at any moment. I just think if they want to extend him it's not gonna be a 20 million extension for 6 years.

 

It makes sense for the Jays to try of course as that's about as risk averse as it gets, but for the player ... his agent would tell him to turn that down the second it was offered IMO.

 

Just for comparison purposes, Cavan Biggio has already banked 6 million with 2 more Arb years to go(Super 2 so not a perfect comparison .. but close-ish). Him getting around 8 more over the next two seasons is realistic if he stays in the part time/utility role. If all the Jays are going to offer is a few million more than they hypothetically paid Biggio for his entire years of control... nope.

 

I think the # is higher just because of the huge changes in league minimum salary. These guys are already earning over 2 million in their pre-arb years. Arb contract awards are going to go up as well.

[Terminator]

How does any player justify turning down money? He bet on himself this long, what's another few seasons? Even if he holds out 1 more season and puts up 2-3 WAR

he could easily look ahead another year and figure his arbtion pay days would be on track to be far higher than a total of 20 million.

 

Yes yes yes, risk and injury and etc etc, but it's not like he's a pitcher and can be expected to shatter at any moment. I just think if they want to extend him it's not gonna be a 20 million extension for 6 years.

 

It makes sense for the Jays to try of course as that's about as risk averse as it gets, but for the player ... his agent would tell him to turn that down the second it was offered IMO.

 

Whit Merrifield didn't debut until he was 27 and he signed a really team friendly deal. I could see Schneider doing it too. Might not be 6 years for 20 mil but something similar gets it done.

 

Schneider almost retired but now he's got 20+ mil in his lap and can then take another crack at free agency when he's 30 or so. If he's still producing he can try and get a 10 mil AAV deal to add the cherry on top.

[John_Havok]

Whit Merrifield didn't debut until he was 27 and he signed a really team friendly deal. I could see Schneider doing it too. Might not be 6 years for 20 mil but something similar gets it done.

 

He almost retired but now he's got 20+ mil in his lap and can then take another crack at free agency when he's 30 or so. If he's still producing he can try and get a 10 mil AAV deal to add the cherry on top.

 

Things that make that comparison not really usefull:

 

1) it was 5 years ago, the economic reality of pre-arb players is drastically different now

2) he already had 2 full seasons before he signed it

3) it was 4 years 16.25 with a mutual option worth more than the rest of the contract combined that 0 people thought would ever be picked up.

 

Doesn't really line up.

[The Cats Ass]

None of AA's deals are even remotely close to the possible value of 6 years 20 million with 2 options on the back end. The most inexpensive is 7/35 (albies) then 8/72 for Michael Harris, and 6/75 for Strider and 8/100 for RAJ.

 

All these guys were highly rated prospects.

[Terminator]

Yeah I probably shouldn't have put Whit in there I knew the comparison would get nitpicked to death.

 

My point was that players go for team friendly deals all the time and a guy who was looking at either being a career minor leaguer or retiring just 1 year ago might be willing to take grab the bag more willingly than people think.

[Laika]

Things that make that comparison not really usefull:

 

1) it was 5 years ago, the economic reality of pre-arb players is drastically different now

2) he already had 2 full seasons before he signed it

3) it was 4 years 16.25 with a mutual option worth more than the rest of the contract combined that 0 people thought would ever be picked up.

 

Doesn't really line up.

 

It lines up incredibly well.

 

Surprisingly good former non-prospect who is old when he debuts

 

Obviously nobody knows what Schneider is thinking. All the team can do is open the conversation. But he might be an idiot to "bet on himself" and turn down twenty million dollars.

[John_Havok]

Yeah I probably shouldn't have put Whit in there I knew the comparison would get nitpicked to death.

 

My point was that players go for team friendly deals all the time and a guy who was looking at either being a career minor leaguer or retiring just 1 year ago might be willing to take grab the bag more willingly than people think.

 

I'm really trying to think of one that was even close to the 6/20 thing mentioned and I can't. It's not that I don't think he shouldnt be considered as a candidate, just that those #'s are way off the economic reality of MLB right now.

 

Even the Albies 7/35 was signed before the league minimum went up. That's a huge factor

[John_Havok]

It lines up incredibly well.

 

Surprisingly good former non-prospect who is old when he debuts

 

Obviously nobody knows what Schneider is thinking. All the team can do is open the conversation. But he might be an idiot to "bet on himself" and turn down twenty million dollars.

 

THe only thing that lines up well is the "Surprisingly good former non-prospect who is old when he debuts"

 

The 6/20 comparison to Whit's 4/16.25 is massively different due to the changes in MLB economics and the service time he had when he signed it.

 

in 2019 when he signed it, the AAV was only slightly less than Ozzie Albies 7/35. Signing Schneider to the inflated equivalent of those two deals would probably have to make the AAV around 7 million or so, give or take a bit. THe proposed deal put him around 3.3. That's a huge difference

[The Cats Ass]

I dunno. He got a $50,000 signing bonus 6 f***ing years ago and is now a nearly 25 year old father of three who nobody thought was even a prospect

 

How could he even justify turning down $20M guaranteed?

 

This is my thinking. Balance out the contract so he gets more money up front instead of league minimum for the next few years.

[The Cats Ass]

THe only thing that lines up well is the "Surprisingly good former non-prospect who is old when he debuts"

 

The 6/20 comparison to Whit's 4/16.25 is massively different due to the changes in MLB economics and the service time he had when he signed it.

 

in 2019 when he signed it, the AAV was only slightly less than Ozzie Albies 7/35. Signing Schneider to the inflated equivalent of those two deals would probably have to make the AAV around 7 million or so, give or take a bit. THe proposed deal put him around 3.3. That's a huge difference

 

Stop comparing Albies contract to a potential Schneider offer. It's even further off than Whit's. Albies was an MLB top 10 prospect and 20 years old. Schneider wasn't even top 10 for us.

[Laika]

Aaron Ashby 5 yr, $20.5M (2023-27), 2028-29 club options

 

Evan White 6 yr, $24M (2020-25), 2026-28 club options

 

Garret Whitlock 4 yr, $18.75M (2023-26), 2027-28 club options

 

 

These are all extensions currently running. All were notable prospects, though.

[Laika]

The only thing that lines up well is the "Surprisingly good former non-prospect who is old when he debuts"

 

The 6/20 comparison to Whit's 4/16.25 is massively different due to the changes in MLB economics and the service time he had when he signed it.

 

in 2019 when he signed it, the AAV was only slightly less than Ozzie Albies 7/35. Signing Schneider to the inflated equivalent of those two deals would probably have to make the AAV around 7 million or so, give or take a bit. THe proposed deal put him around 3.3. That's a huge difference

 

I disagree that MLB economics are much different than five years ago. The arb system is the same and the $/WAR hasn't inflated that much.

[Olerud363]

"hitting is not about muscle. It’s simple physics. Calculate the velocity, V, in relation to the trajectory, T, in which G, gravity, of course, remains a constant. It’s not complicated."

 

Reminded of this last night looking at the exit velocity box score. Schneider's homer was 105 mph, 34 degrees, 422 feet. Perfection.