2023 Trade Deadline

[Stangstag]

The issue is KK and Varsho shouldn’t be starting in the same OF. As good as KK has been offensively, his bat is going to regress closer to his norm, and Varsho’s greatest asset is his defense in CF as he may not (likely won’t) be able to hit well enough to justify a corner OF spot. Platooning both is certainly an option, but the offense around those two isn’t good enough to compensate for having two 90 wRC+ bats in the OF. Either Varsho has to have a monster 2nd half (which is possible) or they need to trade KK and add a LF who can hit.

 

Agreed. And again i'll say I really don't think we should bring KK back next year. The clearest easiest upgrade to this team would be a corner OF slugger.

[Spanky99]

great target. probably better than Renfroe.

 

I wonder if the Mets will even sell, though. They probably inch closer to the last WC spot and decide to just stay the course.

 

Same could be said for the Angels, but without Trout now I could see it.

[Jonn]

Agreed. And again i'll say I really don't think we should bring KK back next year. The clearest easiest upgrade to this team would be a corner OF slugger.

 

It wouldn't make sense to bring back Kiermaier if the plan is for Varsho to ultimately play CF. I love KK but hes going to be 34 and he already has injury issues. He's not going to run like greyhound forever in the Outfield.

 

We need more from LF no question. It just would be nice if the LF wasn't a dumpster fire defensively.

[Spanky99]

Someone will have to let the Jays know not to join a fantasy football team with him.

 

Yeah, he'll Karate your ass if you mess around, lol.

[keggy]

I know people always remember history more fondly than it actually was... but the two teams are not that far apart.

 

That team had the best run differential in baseball by a huge margin.

 

This current team could add Ohtani and Trout at the deadline and still not be as strong as that 2015 team.

[max silver]

That team had the best run differential in baseball by a huge margin.

 

This current team could add Ohtani and Trout at the deadline and still not be as strong as that 2015 team.

 

I have really fond memories of the 2015 squad but it wasn't THAT good.

[Stangstag]

I have really fond memories of the 2015 squad but it wasn't THAT good.

 

The offense was elite but the rotation was… not good. Dickey, Buehrle, Estrada and junk for most of the year… then Price at the deadline and Stroman in September.

[John_Havok]

That team had the best run differential in baseball by a huge margin.

 

This current team could add Ohtani and Trout at the deadline and still not be as strong as that 2015 team.

 

Yes, but you have to look at other factors other than just run differential. Yes, the scored a ton of runs, and also gave up a ton of runs due to mediocre pitching and questionable defense. They bludgeoned teams with their bats, had the best RD in the league and still only won 93 games because they also gave up as many runs as the worst teams in the league.

 

Sure, I'd love to have some of that O this season, but I'll take this year's combo of offense, pitching and defense over 2015's hammer offense and bad everything else any day of the week. The underperformance with RISP is largely to blame for the lack of run scoring.

[G-Snarls]

Rotation might be OK after all

 

--

 

[Jimcanuck]

Some context required, it was the pussies

 

But Manoah just needs to provide 5th SP numbers going forward and it's an OK staff

[Spanky99]

MLBTR's top 50 trade candidates...

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/07/top-50-deadline-trade-candidates-early-july-edition.html

[gruber92]

Some context required, it was the pussies

 

But Manoah just needs to provide 5th SP numbers going forward and it's an OK staff

 

Nah.. Ross needs to go and get Jordan Montgomery.

[Olerud363]

Yes, but you have to look at other factors other than just run differential. Yes, the scored a ton of runs, and also gave up a ton of runs due to mediocre pitching and questionable defense. They bludgeoned teams with their bats, had the best RD in the league and still only won 93 games because they also gave up as many runs as the worst teams in the league.

 

Sure, I'd love to have some of that O this season, but I'll take this year's combo of offense, pitching and defense over 2015's hammer offense and bad everything else any day of the week. The underperformance with RISP is largely to blame for the lack of run scoring.

 

They under-performed because of luck. Run-differential is not used to predict expected record, it's more complicated formulas. Bill James had a approximation using the Pythagorean ratio of runs scored to runs allowed. If you scored 700 runs and gave up 500 expected record would be a much higher percentage than if you scored 900 and gave up 700.

 

So basically in 2015, even accounting that they were a high scoring team with good but not great run prevention, they still had the best expected record.

 

For example in 2015 KC was 724 scored 641 allowed, Blue Jays 891 - 670. Houston was the best run prevention team by far and was 720 and 618. Two of the other teams that the Blue Jays beat in 2015 had better runs allowed but didn't even make the playoffs.

 

1993 Blue Jays had about a 850 to 750 run differential and still won the world series beating the best pitching team in the AL (White Sox) and winning a weird World Series against a similar hitting first team.

 

So basically expected W/L matters, if you are a high scoring team you need to have a larger run differential than a low scoring team, but the 2015 Blue Jays were an amazing team when measured in expected W/L, far better than any other team in the AL, and far better than the 92 or 93 teams.

 

Obviously they weren't quite as impressive before getting Price and Stroman's return, but they still had a good expected W/L in late July which is why AA went all out.

[Spanky99]

Nah.. Ross needs to go and get Jordan Montgomery.

 

That would cost the Jays something like Orelvis and Robberse for a couple months of Montgomery, and for what? If Toronto runs into an injury issue maybe. They have a full staff with help coming at the end of the month.

[gruber92]

That would cost the Jays something like Orelvis and Robberse for a couple months of Montgomery, and for what? If Toronto runs into an injury issue maybe. They have a full staff with help coming at the end of the month.

 

I don't think you'll have to give up Orelvis for two months of him. Maybe Kloffenstein +?

[Spanky99]

I don't think you'll have to give up Orelvis for two months of him. Maybe Kloffenstein +?

 

I guess you have zero recollection of last years deadline. The prices are abhorrent at the deadline, it'll happen again this season as well with all the teams in the hunt, a sellers market no doubt, I think I was being light on that cost.

[BigCecil]

I guess you have zero recollection of last years deadline. The prices are abhorrent at the deadline, it'll happen again this season as well with all the teams in the hunt, a sellers market no doubt, I think I was being light on that cost.

 

It was nuts and won’t change. The extra wild card and some parity has ensured the market paradigm has shifted for deadlines to a much stronger sellers market. Caveat emptor. Prices will be high. IF Greene and Ryu can add some value it would be an incredible boost coming from inside the house “cheap”.

[saskjayfan]

MLBTR's top 50 trade candidates...

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/07/top-50-deadline-trade-candidates-early-july-edition.html

 

I'm surprised Paxton is so low on the list. It's only been 50 innings. His stuff is still filthy. He's a rental owed nothing who could be a big game pitcher in the playoffs. I'll be curious what it costs to get him.

[Spanky99]

It was nuts and won’t change. The extra wild card and some parity has ensured the market paradigm has shifted for deadlines to a much stronger sellers market. Caveat emptor. Prices will be high. IF Greene and Ryu can add some value it would be an incredible boost coming from inside the house “cheap”.

 

Yeah, teams selling are going to get good spects, especially for guys like Montgomery, I'm a fanboy but don't want to even think of the cost. lol... Ryu, Green a bench bat and a BP arm and I'd be happy, they just need to play better after the break.

[saskjayfan]

I don't think you'll have to give up Orelvis for two months of him. Maybe Kloffenstein +?

 

I can't give Orelvis up for any rental. Ous system is too bare and our payroll is too high. I'd rather have Paxton than Montgomery anyway. Paxton's averaging 95.8 MPH with a 31.1K%. That's vintage Paxton. I also think Spanky is right. I think prices will be too high for us to get any impactful players. We just have to hope Manoah continues what he did last night.

[jaysblue]

I have really fond memories of the 2015 squad but it wasn't THAT good.

 

That 2015 team had a great chance at winning the World Series that year after the trades AA made at the deadline.

 

Offensively, that was one of the best lineups we've seen.

[jaysblue]

The offense was elite but the rotation was… not good. Dickey, Buehrle, Estrada and junk for most of the year… then Price at the deadline and Stroman in September.

 

Yeah the rotation lacked an ace during the first half until they traded for Price who was money in the second half. Performed poorly in the Postseason though. Dickey and Buehrle were solid vets and inning eaters. Don't see much a difference between them and Bassitt. Estrada was really solid out of the rotation and pitched in some big Postseason games. Stroman pitched well when he came back.

[jaysblue]

I find it hilarious how some posters are saying the 2015 team wasn't that good when comparing it with the 2023 team lol.

 

Last time I checked, this current Jays groups hasn't gone to the ALCS back-to-back yet.

[Rusty_Savage]

I find it hilarious how some posters are saying the 2015 team wasn't that good when comparing it with the 2023 team lol.

 

Last time I checked, this current Jays groups hasn't gone to the ALCS back-to-back yet.

How could the 2015 go to the ALCS in back to back years?

 

Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk

[Stangstag]

I find it hilarious how some posters are saying the 2015 team wasn't that good when comparing it with the 2023 team lol.

 

Last time I checked, this current Jays groups hasn't gone to the ALCS back-to-back yet.

 

Lol what

[G-Snarls]

Wish Ryu could have had a few starts before the trade deadline

 

For... reasons

[Jonn]

With Manoah seemingly back? And Ryu around the corner I don't think the need to add a starter isn't nearly as high. If they were to get one it should be one you expect to make a playoff start not a depth option.

 

They need some bats first and foremost. A high end reliever if you can swing it.

[G-Snarls]

With Manoah seemingly back? And Ryu around the corner I don't think the need to add a starter isn't nearly as high. If they were to get one it should be one you expect to make a playoff start not a depth option.

 

They need some bats first and foremost. A high end reliever if you can swing it.

 

Agree

 

I wouldn't look for a SP. Take advantage of the break. Run a 6 man rotation when Ryu is back. You have built depth if a starter goes down. And you only need 4 SPs for the post season.

 

We need a bat at DH, 2B and/or OF to maybe platoon with Belt and Varsho and/or replace Kirk as a DH. A rental would be fine.

 

Bullpen might be OK if Pop and Green are healthy but you add a solid piece if you can anyway.

 

Don't want to deplete the farm much to help this all happen and I don't think you even need to.

[DigitalRock]

Agree

 

I wouldn't look for a SP. Take advantage of the break. Run a 6 man rotation when Ryu is back. You have built depth if a starter goes down. And you only need 4 SPs for the post season.

 

We need a bat at DH, 2B and/or OF to maybe platoon with Belt and Varsho and/or replace Kirk as a DH. A rental would be fine.

 

Bullpen might be OK if Pop and Green are healthy but you add a solid piece if you can anyway.

 

Don't want to deplete the farm much to help this all happen and I don't think you even need to.

 

100 percent

[max silver]

I find it hilarious how some posters are saying the 2015 team wasn't that good when comparing it with the 2023 team lol.

 

Last time I checked, this current Jays groups hasn't gone to the ALCS back-to-back yet.

 

I didn't say the 2015 team wasn't legitimately great, I bristled at the suggestion you could add both Ohtani and Trout to the current squad and the 2015 team would still be better. Adding two of MLB's best hitters and another ace to this year's team would likely create the most talented Blue Jays team of all time.

Edited July 8, 2023 by max silver