Jays 2023 Pen - Good or Good Enough?

[John_Havok]

Pop has a weird statcast page this year. Pretty much everything is exactly the same, but he's just getting way more whiffs on the slider and throwing it more often. Maybe it's a location thing.

 

Might be tunneling better too, anything on his sinker different than previous?

[Grant77]

Might be tunneling better too, anything on his sinker different than previous?

 

Same velo, same vertical and horizontal movement. There might be something different, but it's not obvious to me. It seems to be the increased use and effectiveness of the slider that is driving his success.

[Spanky99]

Same velo, same vertical and horizontal movement. There might be something different, but it's not obvious to me. It seems to be the increased use and effectiveness of the slider that is driving his success.

 

Yeah, cause it's filthy, lol.

[Orgfiller]

Pop has a weird statcast page this year. Pretty much everything is exactly the same, but he's just getting way more whiffs on the slider and throwing it more often. Maybe it's a location thing.

 

He’s also getting more whiffs on his sinker, which is probably making the slider play up even more. That, or him throwing his slider more frequently, which is an excellent pitch, is making his power sinker even more effective. The sinker has been incredibly valuable for him this season, already as much as of all last season.

[Brownie19]

He’s also getting more whiffs on his sinker, which is probably making the slider play up even more. That, or him throwing his slider more frequently, which is an excellent pitch, is making his power sinker even more effective. The sinker has been incredibly valuable for him this season, already as much as of all last season.

 

Increased whiffs on the sinker could be simply be related to him using the slider more. I think last year most batters would just eliminate the slider and look sinker and thus it's easier to make contact. If they have to respect the slider more, he'll get more sinkers past batters (I think).

[John_Havok]

Increased whiffs on the sinker could be simply be related to him using the slider more. I think last year most batters would just eliminate the slider and look sinker and thus it's easier to make contact. If they have to respect the slider more, he'll get more sinkers past batters (I think).

 

yeah, I mean all we can do is speculate based on the limited public data we have, but if the shape and velo of both pitches are about the same as previous years, and the only thing we know is different is the usage of the slider being increased and the sinker decreased... the only logical deduction is that the change is useage is making the batters wait just a split second more before they decide what to do which is definitely advantageous to the pitcher.

[Spanky99]

yeah, I mean all we can do is speculate based on the limited public data we have, but if the shape and velo of both pitches are about the same as previous years, and the only thing we know is different is the usage of the slider being increased and the sinker decreased... the only logical deduction is that the change is useage is making the batters wait just a split second more before they decide what to do which is definitely advantageous to the pitcher.

 

I don't think it's that easy, they said they had a plan for him, and this could be it, along with tweaks to the slider and FB(si) usage. Subtle but telling, obviously.

[keggy]

Pop has a weird statcast page this year. Pretty much everything is exactly the same, but he's just getting way more whiffs on the slider and throwing it more often. Maybe it's a location thing.

 

Based on a very limited eye test, Pop's slider didn't look very sharp last year. It had this weird frisbee cutting action and generated very few swings and misses.

 

This year his slider has a lot more bite. I still don't think it's an great slider, but way better than last year and probably plays well with his fastball, which has always been disgusting.

[Orgfiller]

Increased whiffs on the sinker could be simply be related to him using the slider more. I think last year most batters would just eliminate the slider and look sinker and thus it's easier to make contact. If they have to respect the slider more, he'll get more sinkers past batters (I think).

 

yeah, I mean all we can do is speculate based on the limited public data we have, but if the shape and velo of both pitches are about the same as previous years, and the only thing we know is different is the usage of the slider being increased and the sinker decreased... the only logical deduction is that the change is useage is making the batters wait just a split second more before they decide what to do which is definitely advantageous to the pitcher.

 

He’s also averaging two more inches of drop (vertical movement) on his sinker compared to last year, 3 more compared to 2021. The slider has similar drop (+1 inch vs 2022 but it already broke a lot so the difference is more negligible), but the big difference is it’s breaking 3 inches less horizontally, down from 8 last season. So the slider shape has in fact changed, he’s emphasizing the vertical drop over less horizontal movement while the sinker is also dropping more but with similar side-to-side.

[John_Havok]

He’s also averaging two more inches of drop (vertical movement) on his sinker compared to last year, 3 more compared to 2021. The slider has similar drop (+1 inch vs 2022 but it already broke a lot so the difference is more negligible), but the big difference is it’s breaking 3 inches less horizontally, down from 8 last season. So the slider shape has in fact changed, he’s emphasizing the vertical drop over less horizontal movement while the sinker is also dropping more but with similar side-to-side.

 

Ah, i took what Grant was saying as in there's been no shape changes. I maybe misunderstood.

[Grant77]

He’s also averaging two more inches of drop (vertical movement) on his sinker compared to last year, 3 more compared to 2021. The slider has similar drop (+1 inch vs 2022 but it already broke a lot so the difference is more negligible), but the big difference is it’s breaking 3 inches less horizontally, down from 8 last season. So the slider shape has in fact changed, he’s emphasizing the vertical drop over less horizontal movement while the sinker is also dropping more but with similar side-to-side.

 

That's a really subtle change and may not play out over a full season. You see that kind of difference even between starts for pitchers.

 

Maybe it stays put throughout the season and represents a different grip or something, but I'm skeptical that it's anything more than just noise at this point. There's more to his increased effectiveness than a minor change in shape in my opinion.

[Laika]

Pop slider stuff+ was 108 last year and is 112 this year. That's just normal variance I guess.

[Stangstag]

Pop slider stuff+ was 108 last year and is 112 this year. That's just normal variance I guess.

 

He looked nasty in his most recent outing

[Brownie19]

Pop slider stuff+ was 108 last year and is 112 this year. That's just normal variance I guess.

 

s*** - that's a lot better than I thought it was. I'm lazy - so what's the fastball stuff+? Do those stats suggest he's on the verge of breaking out and becoming a legit back end pen guy?

[wilko]

Pop's popping off!

[John_Havok]

Pop's popping off!

 

That's beneath you.

 

Hang your head in shame sir.

[Laika]

s*** - that's a lot better than I thought it was. I'm lazy - so what's the fastball stuff+? Do those stats suggest he's on the verge of breaking out and becoming a legit back end pen guy?

 

His sinker does NOT have a great stuff number but the model isn't great for sinkers

 

The biggest difference this year is he is just throwing his slider a lot more.

[Grant77]

His sinker does NOT have a great stuff number but the model isn't great for sinkers

 

The biggest difference this year is he is just throwing his slider a lot more.

 

Whiffs are way up on the slider too. He probably should have been using it more in the past as well.

[Laika]

Whiffs are way up on the slider too. He probably should have been using it more in the past as well.

 

Yeah

 

Maybe a confidence thing

 

Or maybe the focus in the off-season was mostly on slider command or tiny little shape changes that make it easier to command

[BigCecil]

Not a strong night for the pen.The Astros stud shut us down and got some luck on Springer. Going to Pop after 77 pitches in a one run game when Berrios was cruising, with an off day tomorrow, is puzzling.

[jaysthebest]

In terms of reliever stats, we are the 11th in the league in era and the 14th in the league for the Fwar.

I guess they are not a contender.

[John_Havok]

Pop's popping off!

 

See what you did? Cursed the kid with that horrible pun.

[Jonn]

See what you did? Cursed the kid with that horrible pun.

 

A few people also quoted me for saying Pop blows in Spring. Now his ERA is 5 lol. But Pop should be mostly fine. Hes been overused.

[wilko]

See what you did? Cursed the kid with that horrible pun.

 

It's not my fault Schneider wants him to get 300 innings this year.

[BigCecil]

It's not my fault Schneider wants him to get 300 innings this year.

 

lol. Using him for more IP than Cito used Duane Ward - until his arm imploded.

[BigCecil]

Its up...its down. Its whiff gods to bums in 3 games. lol. By mid July we'll know where its at.

 

I think its probably good enough to make the playoffs in at least a WC but I'd love to add some filth for the playoffs.

 

A Green return and Pearson emergence would be material.

[Krylian]

Its up...its down. Its whiff gods to bums in 3 games. lol. By mid July we'll know where its at.

 

I think its probably good enough to make the playoffs in at least a WC but I'd love to add some filth for the playoffs.

 

A Green return and Pearson emergence would be material.

 

If Romano and Swanson remain what they've shown they can be, and if Green can return and be the Green we've seen....AND if Pearson stays healthy and is able to become what we've all hoped he could become, then that's a wonderful 4 to start with. I've been as hard on the pen as anyone, but I would be really surprised if they couldn't cobble together another 4 to add to that that are effective and can get the job done more times than not.

 

I'd love to see a lights out lefty added, but that's a deadline cherry on the sundae kind of piece.

[John_Havok]

If Romano and Swanson remain what they've shown they can be, and if Green can return and be the Green we've seen....AND if Pearson stays healthy and is able to become what we've all hoped he could become, then that's a wonderful 4 to start with. I've been as hard on the pen as anyone, but I would be really surprised if they couldn't cobble together another 4 to add to that that are effective and can get the job done more times than not.

 

I'd love to see a lights out lefty added, but that's a deadline cherry on the sundae kind of piece.

 

I think the pen overall is still good for a 162 game season, just not as good as it needs to be for a playoff run. Swanson and Romano are top guys, Jimmy should probably be about the 4th or 5th best guy in order to be a great pen. I’m fine with Mayza as a lefty killer, but they need another one.

 

They need 2 guys to slot between Jimmy and Swanson on the depth chart, whether they get those two guys internally from guys stepping up like Pearson or Green if he makes it back or they have to get them via trade remains to be seen. I think if Pop stays on the roster he has to be the “worst” reliever they have in order for me to be truly okay with the pen as one that I’m not worried about every other game because I know the bottom 5 guys are all completely Jekyll and Hyde from day to day

Edited May 3, 2023 by John_Havok

[Spanky99]

Its up...its down. Its whiff gods to bums in 3 games. lol. By mid July we'll know where its at.

 

I think its probably good enough to make the playoffs in at least a WC but I'd love to add some filth for the playoffs.

 

A Green return and Pearson emergence would be material.

 

HR's are the problem to our entire staff, 3rd highest in HR/FB%.

[Olerud363]

HR's are the problem to our entire staff, 3rd highest in HR/FB%.

 

Was just talking about that on another thread. It's an overall weird trend for the team for and against. They are being out-homered 42-32.

 

I've seen some weird stats that Spring/Vlad/Chapman have hit together like 15 390+ foot outs, not to mention several long doubles.

 

Where is Cito? Where is Laika (he wrote about this last year). Need to pull these fly balls. Though can't complain about Chapman, whatever he is doing is working.

 

Or do we want Chapman back to .230 with 38 bombs instead of .310 with 25? Cito would prefer the former, but as a trade-off could get Varsho/Kirk/Springer and maybe even Biggio and Belt going. Pull dat ball!