Former Blue Jays Thread

[Laika]

And Varsho has an anemic .663 OPS playing the corner OF in the AL East. Not even comparable. I would take that trade back in a heartbeat.

 

Varsho is one tweak away. He is making more contact than ever and displaying his plus power and speed, consistently.

 

Moreno is like... absolutely maxing out his physical talents and he still can't really hit enough. .282 with a .336 BABIP and he is at this level. Just no juice in that body, whatsoever.

[jaysblue]

lil' Gabby Moreno now has a putrid .688 OPS and only 0.3 fWAR

 

a replacement level season is in the realm of possibilities

 

he is a surprisingly bad baserunner!?

 

good trade remains good, I never doubted it

 

Lmao didn't you say a couple of weeks ago the trade might not look that good and that the Blue Jays FO might have made a mistake in evaluating assets?

 

Every two weeks, we're going to be revisiting this trade. Two weeks ago, this trade was awful. Now, it's a great trade. Next two weeks, Arizona fleeced us. End of June, Jays did fantastic.

 

Overall, if Varsho is a 4-5 WAR outfielder every season, and helps the Jays win a World Series, I couldn't care what Moreno or LGJ do in Arizona.

[Ehjays]

Red Sox Designate Raimel Tapia For Assignment

By Steve Adams | June 5, 2023 at 10:50am CDT

 

The Red Sox announced Monday that they’ve reinstated infielder Christian Arroyo from the injured list and, in a corresponding move, designated outfielder Raimel Tapia for assignment.

 

The veteran Tapia, 29, was non-tendered by the Blue Jays last winter and signed a minor league deal with the Red Sox, who selected his contract prior to Opening Day. He’s appeared in 39 games thus far and tallied 97 plate appearances in Boston, batting .264/.333/.368 with a homer, four doubles, a triple and six stolen bases (in seven attempts). He’s drawn nine walks and fanned 19 times along the way, giving him slightly better-than-average rates in both departments.

 

Tapia has played all three outfield spots in Boston but has primarily been a left fielder in his big league career — most of which has been spent with the Rockies. He’s drawn solid, if unspectacular grades in left field and in center field, though defensive metrics aren’t particularly keen on his right field prowess. He’s been average or a tick worse across the board in the outfield this season per each of Defensive Runs Saved, Ultimate Zone Rating and Outs Above Average.

 

With some outfield versatility, above-average contact and above-average speed, Tapia has been a solid enough fourth outfielder in Boston, even with a glaring lack of power. That’s generally par for the course for the speedster, who has never topped seven home runs in a big league season and hasn’t been deemed a strong enough defender by any of the Rockies, Jays or Red Sox to run out in center field on a regular or even semi-regular basis.

 

Tapia can certainly provide value, but as a primarily left-field option without much power and with notable platoon splits (.105/.190/.105 versus lefties in 2023; .275/.305/.361 career), he’s perhaps a bit more limited than one might expect with a cursory glance at his batting line and 89th percentile sprint speed (per Statcast). It’s still at least somewhat surprising to see the Red Sox move on in this fashion, although with an all-left-handed-hitting outfield mix of Masataka Yoshida, Jarren Duran and Alex Verdugo, Tapia’s lefty bat might well have been deemed a suboptimal fit. The right-handed-hitting Rob Refsnyder offers a more natural complement in that regard.

 

The minor league deal Tapia signed over the winter contained a $2MM base salary, so any team that claims him or acquires him would need to be comfortable picking up the remainder of that prorated bill. Boston could always include some cash to help facilitate a trade, and a trade is surely the team’s preferred option, as Tapia has more than five years of MLB service and can thus reject an outright assignment while retaining the entirety of the salary still owed to him. The Red Sox will have a week to trade Tapia, attempt to pass him through outright waivers, or release him.

[jaysblue]

Varsho is one tweak away. He is making more contact than ever and displaying his plus power and speed, consistently.

 

Moreno is like... absolutely maxing out his physical talents and he still can't really hit enough. .282 with a .336 BABIP and he is at this level. Just no juice in that body, whatsoever.

 

So if Varsho is one tweak away, what makes you think Moreno can't make any tweaks over the next couple of years as he develops?

[jaysblue]

Red Sox Designate Raimel Tapia For Assignment

By Steve Adams | June 5, 2023 at 10:50am CDT

 

The Red Sox announced Monday that they’ve reinstated infielder Christian Arroyo from the injured list and, in a corresponding move, designated outfielder Raimel Tapia for assignment.

 

The veteran Tapia, 29, was non-tendered by the Blue Jays last winter and signed a minor league deal with the Red Sox, who selected his contract prior to Opening Day. He’s appeared in 39 games thus far and tallied 97 plate appearances in Boston, batting .264/.333/.368 with a homer, four doubles, a triple and six stolen bases (in seven attempts). He’s drawn nine walks and fanned 19 times along the way, giving him slightly better-than-average rates in both departments.

 

Tapia has played all three outfield spots in Boston but has primarily been a left fielder in his big league career — most of which has been spent with the Rockies. He’s drawn solid, if unspectacular grades in left field and in center field, though defensive metrics aren’t particularly keen on his right field prowess. He’s been average or a tick worse across the board in the outfield this season per each of Defensive Runs Saved, Ultimate Zone Rating and Outs Above Average.

 

With some outfield versatility, above-average contact and above-average speed, Tapia has been a solid enough fourth outfielder in Boston, even with a glaring lack of power. That’s generally par for the course for the speedster, who has never topped seven home runs in a big league season and hasn’t been deemed a strong enough defender by any of the Rockies, Jays or Red Sox to run out in center field on a regular or even semi-regular basis.

 

Tapia can certainly provide value, but as a primarily left-field option without much power and with notable platoon splits (.105/.190/.105 versus lefties in 2023; .275/.305/.361 career), he’s perhaps a bit more limited than one might expect with a cursory glance at his batting line and 89th percentile sprint speed (per Statcast). It’s still at least somewhat surprising to see the Red Sox move on in this fashion, although with an all-left-handed-hitting outfield mix of Masataka Yoshida, Jarren Duran and Alex Verdugo, Tapia’s lefty bat might well have been deemed a suboptimal fit. The right-handed-hitting Rob Refsnyder offers a more natural complement in that regard.

 

The minor league deal Tapia signed over the winter contained a $2MM base salary, so any team that claims him or acquires him would need to be comfortable picking up the remainder of that prorated bill. Boston could always include some cash to help facilitate a trade, and a trade is surely the team’s preferred option, as Tapia has more than five years of MLB service and can thus reject an outright assignment while retaining the entirety of the salary still owed to him. The Red Sox will have a week to trade Tapia, attempt to pass him through outright waivers, or release him.

 

Jays wasted so many ABs on Tapia last season and he was one of the reasons why the Jays lost in Game 2 against the Mariners.

[Laika]

Lmao didn't you say a couple of weeks ago the trade might not look that good and that the Blue Jays FO might have made a mistake in evaluating assets?

 

Every two weeks, we're going to be revisiting this trade. Two weeks ago, this trade was awful. Now, it's a great trade. Next two weeks, Arizona fleeced us. End of June, Jays did fantastic.

 

Overall, if Varsho is a 4-5 WAR outfielder every season, and helps the Jays win a World Series, I couldn't care what Moreno or LGJ do in Arizona.

 

I don't get it

[max silver]

And Varsho has an anemic .663 OPS playing the corner OF in the AL East. Not even comparable. I would take that trade back in a heartbeat.

 

Varsho has been trending upwards offensively as the season has continued. There aren't a lot of data points to compare but historically he's been a better second half performer compared to first half so the best is likely yet to come. He's likely the team's center fielder past this season as well unless the team re-signs Kiermaier so he's likely only a corner outfielder for this season.

[Laika]

So if Varsho is one tweak away, what makes you think Moreno can't make any tweaks over the next couple of years as he develops?

 

lack of tools

 

you can only be so good when you never barrel the ball, never walk, and have middling raw power

[G-Snarls]

Varsho will almost certainly be a better hitter than Moreno over the next 4 years

 

Moreno's value will obviously come from catching

 

Varsho looks like he could be good to very good at almost eveything you want from an outfielder. I don't think he's hitting at his true talent level so far but we'll see what we get.

 

That trade still has a chance to be beneficial for both teams though I'll concede that early on it doesn't feel great.

 

Thankfully rhe other major moves of the off season have worked out or are likely to work out. Teo for Swanson and Macko. Saving over 10M on that deal and singing KK with the savings. Bassitt FA signing. And probably the Belt and Green signings when all is said and done.

Edited June 5, 2023 by G-Snarls

[jaysblue]

Well, it just means they should have received better value for him. Or traded a different catcher.

 

Of course that's easy to say and harder to do. They probably tried everything all offseason and ended up taking the best deal they could get.

 

They still kind of got f***ed though, in hindsight. It's not an amazing look on Atkins. He should have had some leverage given the market. The f***ing Cardinals chose to pay a non-catcher $90M to catch, rather than trade fair value for Danno. How does that happen? Bizarre.

 

Your comments a couple of weeks ago.

[Spanky99]

Laika's on a Merry-Go-Round.

[Laika]

Your comments a couple of weeks ago.

 

I don't see the problem

 

The trade was horrendous and now it's amazing. That can happen in baseball. It's a weird game!

[Terminator]

lil' Gabby Moreno now has a putrid .688 OPS and only 0.3 fWAR

 

a replacement level season is in the realm of possibilities

 

he is a surprisingly bad baserunner!?

 

good trade remains good, I never doubted it

 

He’s a 155 pound slap hitter

[BigCecil]

Varsho will almost certainly be a better hitter than Moreno over the next 4 years

 

Not sure about that. Varsho reminds me a bit of a LHH Grichuk. He will run into some. 1300 PAs and a 97 wRC+.

 

Moreno only has 200 PAs. Early.

 

Avg EV Moreno - 62nd percentile. 60% hard hit.

 

Avg EV Varsho - 23rd percentile. 31% hard hit.

[TheHurl]

lack of tools

 

lack of tools...and racism.

[Olerud363]

lack of tools

 

you can only be so good when you never barrel the ball, never walk, and have middling raw power

 

Before his thumb injury Moreno hit 44 doubles, 8 triples, and 24 homeruns in 159 games over his age 18, 19 and 21 seasons.

 

Since the thumb injury he has been not hitting for so much power.

 

I wonder if important tendons in the thumb were just f***ed up beyond repair. Is that a thing?

[Orgfiller]

Not sure about that. Varsho reminds me a bit of a LHH Grichuk. He will run into some. 1300 PAs and a 97 wRC+.

 

Moreno only has 200 PAs. Early.

 

Avg EV Moreno - 62nd percentile. 60% hard hit.

 

Avg EV Varsho - 23rd percentile. 31% hard hit.

 

Varsho neither walks as little as Grichuk nor does he whiff as often. Swings less at balls and makes more contact on them when he does, more contact overall/less whiffs. I actually think Varsho has a pretty decent eye, it's not often he's whiffing at garbage outside the zone, he just has current holes in certain areas of the zone so I think he's been pressing which has lead to not optimal swing decisions at times. This is unlike Grichuk who just kind of swings at everything, there was never a breaking ball low and away that he didn't love. They both have good power with some swing and miss, that's really the extent of the comp.

[Laika]

Before his thumb injury Moreno hit 44 doubles, 8 triples, and 24 homeruns in 159 games over his age 18, 19 and 21 seasons.

 

Since the thumb injury he has been not hitting for so much power.

 

I wonder if important tendons in the thumb were just f***ed up beyond repair. Is that a thing?

 

I dunno. Could be a lot of "minor league" extra base hits in there.

[Laika]

Not sure about that. Varsho reminds me a bit of a LHH Grichuk. He will run into some. 1300 PAs and a 97 wRC+.

 

Moreno only has 200 PAs. Early.

 

Avg EV Moreno - 62nd percentile. 60% hard hit.

 

Avg EV Varsho - 23rd percentile. 31% hard hit.

 

You don't care about average EV when thinking about tools.

 

Varsho's maxEV is 83rd percentile

 

that means minor improvements in bat path should = large improvements in game power

 

the version of Varsho we have seen is flawed and playing a sub-optimal position most nights. no argument there. he needs to figure something else out at the plate, and he will be a better player when he is a full time CF.

[BigCecil]

Varsho neither walks as little as Grichuk nor does he whiff as often. Swings less at balls and makes more contact on them when he does, more contact overall/less whiffs. I actually think Varsho has a pretty decent eye, it's not often he's whiffing at garbage outside the zone, he just has current holes in certain areas of the zone so I think he's been pressing which has lead to not optimal swing decisions at times. This is unlike Grichuk who just kind of swings at everything, there was never a breaking ball low and away that he didn't love. They both have good power with some swing and miss, that's really the extent of the comp.

 

 

Fair. I said a bit. End of the day they have both been league average bats ish (Grichuks 100 wRC+ career) that will run into some balls.

 

I agree Varsho is more selective and that he (like Biggio) has holes in his swing. Sometimes guys never fix those.

 

I make the point that we can't assume both Varsho is all about upside because he hit a couple balls at the 83rd percentile EV, and that we know what Moreno is after 200 PAs. Been a lot of players who have been solid value that don't hit big EV numbers much, and some guys who can light it up occasionally but not often enough. Then again, I once thought Lawrie = Machado and look how that turned out.

[Omar]

I don't see the problem

 

The trade was horrendous and now it's amazing. That can happen in baseball. It's a weird game!

 

[204Jays]

Marcus Semien is having a year. He will likely fall off near the end of that deal but Rangers will get their moneys worth for the first half+ of that deal

[Stangstag]

Marcus Semien is having a year. He will likely fall off near the end of that deal but Rangers will get their moneys worth for the first half+ of that deal

 

Yup he’s been surprisingly consistent even after the abysmal start last year

[John_Havok]

Yup he’s been surprisingly consistent even after the abysmal start last year

 

He's kind of an interesting case. His power out put is down, but babip is way up over his career norms. I wonder if that's a conscious change or just a weird variance

[jaysblue]

Semien 3.2 WAR leads all of baseball.

[BigCecil]

Marcus Semien is having a year. He will likely fall off near the end of that deal but Rangers will get their moneys worth for the first half+ of that deal

 

Ya, there was a lot of negative focus on his 7/175 and I understand why, but he still had 4.2 WAR - 2022 at 2B.

 

Given the FA market is around $8.5M/WAR - right now anyway - $25M AAV for Marcus is a deal.

[max silver]

Ya, there was a lot of negative focus on his 7/175 and I understand why, but he still had 4.2 WAR - 2022 at 2B.

 

Given the FA market is around $8.5M/WAR - right now anyway - $25M AAV for Marcus is a deal.

 

I didn't like the precedent that it set where big free agents were going to be paid until their late 30's and even early 40's moving forward. Most of these guys are going to be useless husks by the time their deals are up. Brandon Nimmo is a perfect example of this, handing out an 8 year deal to a player with an injury history like his is pure lunacy.

[BigCecil]

I didn't like the precedent that it set where big free agents were going to be paid until their late 30's and even early 40's moving forward. Most of these guys are going to be useless husks by the time their deals are up. Brandon Nimmo is a perfect example of this, handing out an 8 year deal to a player with an injury history like his is pure lunacy.

 

Couldn't agree more. Very bad for baseball when the signing sugar high wears off. Overpaid husks running around the game no bueno.

 

They are stretching out term of signings to lower the AAV and NPV of the deal, but the legacy costs still will impact future roster construction decisions. No way around that.

[Brownie19]

Ya, there was a lot of negative focus on his 7/175 and I understand why, but he still had 4.2 WAR - 2022 at 2B.

 

Given the FA market is around $8.5M/WAR - right now anyway - $25M AAV for Marcus is a deal.

 

We need to remember he was entering his age 31 season had had exactly 2 seasons with a wRC+ over 100 in his career. There was a ton of risk. Luckily, he somehow transformed into a great base runner last year, which helped overshadow a VERY slow start and just a 107 wRC+, allowing him to post a 4.2 WAR season. This year, he looks like one of the best all around players in baseball.

 

Known as a very hard worker, I'm really happy to see Marcus have success and that deal looks great for Texas right now. We'll see how long his physical skills hold up though. A lot of middle infielders hit the wall in their early to mid 30's.

[max silver]

Couldn't agree more. Very bad for baseball when the signing sugar high wears off. Overpaid husks running around the game no bueno.

 

They are stretching out term of signings to lower the AAV and NPV of the deal, but the legacy costs still will impact future roster construction decisions. No way around that.

 

I could get on board with handing out these kinds of deals to the truly elite player class. Like Aaron Judge, Ohtani, etc., but the class of guys below that is getting those kinds of deals now as well. I would love for the team to be able to retain Matt Chapman. But I sure as s*** don't want the team handing him a deal that pays him $30+ million a season until he's 40 given how that will kneecap the team in the second half of the deal. It's the same situation with Xander Boegarts, on a George Springer kind of deal I would have loved for the Jays to pick him up. But paying him until he's 40 years old? Hard pass to that as well.

Edited June 7, 2023 by max silver