Former Blue Jays Thread

[Ehjays]

[Stangstag]

 

If Saucedo ends up being a decent reliever I think we conclude that our FO really has no idea how to identify quality arms. We’ve already let a few guys go the past couple years

[John_Havok]

If Saucedo ends up being a decent reliever I think we conclude that our FO really has no idea how to identify quality arms. We’ve already let a few guys go the past couple years

 

I dont think any FO knows truly how to identify quality arms. Every year there's some guy that X team let go and Y team picked up and now he's good.

[Omar]

If Saucedo ends up being a decent reliever I think we conclude that our FO really has no idea how to identify quality arms. We’ve already let a few guys go the past couple years

 

Every time I see Bryan Baker pitch it pisses me off.

[AMS528]

This is a less miserable look at a former Blue Jay, but wild to see former interesting prospect Carlos Perez find his way back to the majors succesfully at the age of 32. Last in the majors in 2018, had a terrible year. Two super impressive minor league seasons, and now he's kept it up so far with a 293/365/440 line. Don't see that too often.

[max silver]

Every time I see Bryan Baker pitch it pisses me off.

 

He had a huge year with the Jays in Buffalo in 2021 but they essentially refused to give him a look in the pen that year despite the desperate need for effective relievers. Fast forward a year later and he was a key contributor out of a lockdown Orioles pen.

[Laika]

He had a huge year with the Jays in Buffalo in 2021 but they essentially refused to give him a look in the pen that year despite the desperate need for effective relievers. Fast forward a year later and he was a key contributor out of a lockdown Orioles pen.

 

He had a nice ERA that year but his K/BB was extremely pedestrian for a 26 year old AAA reliever. By all accounts he had a velocity jump after leaving Toronto.

 

So Bryan Baker is just a story of the development system not trying to maximize velocity out of certain players.

[RobinThicc]

They could use Moreno's defense instead of the fat f*** Kirk right now

[max silver]

They could use Moreno's defense instead of the fat f*** Kirk right now

 

Kirk is far better at both blocking and framing, and by Statcast throwing runs above average is a +1 right now. Kirk's defence is the last thing that is wrong with this team right now.

[max silver]

He had a nice ERA that year but his K/BB was extremely pedestrian for a 26 year old AAA reliever. By all accounts he had a velocity jump after leaving Toronto.

 

So Bryan Baker is just a story of the development system not trying to maximize velocity out of certain players.

 

It's hard to say for certain how much Baker's velocity would have jumped given that he pitched all of 1 inning in MLB with the Jays. He walked only 3.7 runners per 9 in Buffalo that season for a K/BB of 2.82. If that doesn't warrant a further look in MLB then what in your estimation would garner a guy a deeper look?

[RobinThicc]

Kirk is far better at both blocking and framing, and by Statcast throwing runs above average is a +1 right now. Kirk's defence is the last thing that is wrong with this team right now.

f***

[Laika]

It's hard to say for certain how much Baker's velocity would have jumped given that he pitched all of 1 inning in MLB with the Jays. He walked only 3.7 runners per 9 in Buffalo that season for a K/BB of 2.82. If that doesn't warrant a further look in MLB then what in your estimation would garner a guy a deeper look?

 

I don't understand the point about velocity and only pitching one inning. He doesn't need to be on the MLB team to do velocity training. In fact, it's something players do in the offseason. You can do it with any pitcher in your organization.

 

Bryan Baker's K/BB was 77th in the IL in 2021, for pitchers who had at least 40 IP. His stats were not interesting for an old reliever, whatsoever. He got outperformed by tons of s***** pitchers like Sean Nolin. A 26 year old reliever with those K/BB numbers is only interesting if you know they have good stuff and think they could do better with some changes or improvements.

 

I am not saying that letting Bryan Baker leave was not an organizational failure, but it just was not one where they let someone who was good get away. Like, he would not have projected as a good reliever with those minor league numbers and his age vs. level. On the baseball card he looked like a replacement level arm.

 

The failure with Baker was somewhere on the biomechanical side of things. Smart organizations have models that use biomechanical info to figure out who might be able to throw harder.

[max silver]

I don't understand the point about velocity and only pitching one inning. He doesn't need to be on the MLB team to do velocity training. In fact, it's something players do in the offseason. You can do it with any pitcher in your organization.

 

Bryan Baker's K/BB was 77th in the IL in 2021, for pitchers who had at least 40 IP. His stats were not interesting for an old reliever, whatsoever. He got outperformed by tons of s***** pitchers like Sean Nolin. A 26 year old reliever with those K/BB numbers is only interesting if you know they have good stuff and think they could do better with some changes or improvements.

 

I am not saying that letting Bryan Baker leave was not an organizational failure, but it just was not one where they let someone who was good get away. Like, he would not have projected as a good reliever with those minor league numbers and his age vs. level. On the baseball card he looked like a replacement level arm.

 

The failure with Baker was somewhere on the biomechanical side of things. Smart organizations have models that use biomechanical info to figure out who might be able to throw harder.

 

You are acting as though Baker experienced a career changing increase in velocity, however what he is featuring at present compared to his short Blue Jays MLB tenure is less than a full tick of velocity. It's entirely possible Baker could have reliably retired MLB hitters based on the stuff he featured in 2021.

 

I don't really agree Baker was that old. He was 26 when he last pitched in AAA, and when you consider there was no minor league baseball in 2020 due to the pandemic that really isn't so bad.

[Laika]

You are acting as though Baker experienced a career changing increase in velocity, however what he is featuring at present compared to his short Blue Jays MLB tenure is less than a full tick of velocity. It's entirely possible Baker could have reliably retired MLB hitters based on the stuff he featured in 2021.

 

I don't really agree Baker was that old. He was 26 when he last pitched in AAA, and when you consider there was no minor league baseball in 2020 due to the pandemic that really isn't so bad.

 

Look, if you give every 26 year old AAA reliever who has a 10.5 K/9 and 3.5 K/9 in AAA a legitimate shot in the big leagues, you are going to have the worst bullpen in baseball. Almost none of them will be good relievers. That is just not an MLB profile, statistically.

 

Baker's velocity has declined this year but his 2022 velo was up significantly. He's also worse this year, arguably. His xFIP is not good and his walk rate is poor. He struggled with walks in the minors before 2021. Maybe he's turning into a pumpkin already, who knows.

[Omar]

You are acting as though Baker experienced a career changing increase in velocity, however what he is featuring at present compared to his short Blue Jays MLB tenure is less than a full tick of velocity. It's entirely possible Baker could have reliably retired MLB hitters based on the stuff he featured in 2021.

 

I don't really agree Baker was that old. He was 26 when he last pitched in AAA, and when you consider there was no minor league baseball in 2020 due to the pandemic that really isn't so bad.

 

Yep. He was a 24 year old with the Bisons in 2018. 31 strike outs over 22 innings. He was worth a look, but this org hates promoting players or taking a chance. No imagination or prescience whatsoever. Terrible scouting and talent appraisal will eventually be Atkins undoing. The rest is just white noise.

[Orgfiller]

Look, if you give every 26 year old AAA reliever who has a 10.5 K/9 and 3.5 K/9 in AAA a legitimate shot in the big leagues, you are going to have the worst bullpen in baseball. Almost none of them will be good relievers. That is just not an MLB profile, statistically.

 

Baker's velocity has declined this year but his 2022 velo was up significantly. He's also worse this year, arguably. His xFIP is not good and his walk rate is poor. He struggled with walks in the minors before 2021. Maybe he's turning into a pumpkin already, who knows.

 

Yeah, sometimes relievers gonna reliever. Steve Delabar was an all-star reliever in 2013, unplayable the rest of his career. Dominic Leone was acquired and had a career year in 2017 and then has bounced around as a replacement level reliever all over the league. The O's took Yennier Cano who was a complete nobody with good stuff and bad command, AKA every other reliever ever, and now he's walked 1 in 27 innings. Credit to them for targeting an arm like that and turning his career around, but if he then went to walk 30 the rest of the season it shouldn't come as a surprise to anyone. Clay Holmes went from journeyman to unhittable to pumpkin in the span of a calendar year. The Rays are seemingly the experts of getting career years out of relievers before shipping them out just before they combust, although their bullpen this year has been garbage so it's not always a foolproof strategy.

 

Relievers are volatile. Target the good arms and try to make them all not look exactly the same (the Rays strategy) and some years your bullpen will just be unhittable, others they'll be unplayable.

[Laika]

Yeah, sometimes relievers gonna reliever. Steve Delabar was an all-star reliever in 2013, unplayable the rest of his career. Dominic Leone was acquired and had a career year in 2017 and then has bounced around as a replacement level reliever all over the league. The O's took Yennier Cano who was a complete nobody with good stuff and bad command, AKA every other reliever ever, and now he's walked 1 in 27 innings. Credit to them for targeting an arm like that and turning his career around, but if he then went to walk 30 the rest of the season it shouldn't come as a surprise to anyone. Clay Holmes went from journeyman to unhittable to pumpkin in the span of a calendar year. The Rays are seemingly the experts of getting career years out of relievers before shipping them out just before they combust, although their bullpen this year has been garbage so it's not always a foolproof strategy.

 

Relievers are volatile. Target the good arms and try to make them all not look exactly the same (the Rays strategy) and some years you bullpen will just be unhittable, others they'll be unplayable.

 

And what not to do:

 

Trade for or sign on FA contracts and therefore put too much faith into extremely mediocre late/mid career bullpen arms like Cimber, Bass, Swanson, Richards, Garcia, and Pop. That's how you end up with a disappointing pen while feeling like you can't really do anything with it. Because most of the guys don't have options or project "fine" or you traded for them recently and they "have good stuff" so you feel beholden to the asset.

[Eat My Shatkins]

Nick Frasso continues to carve AA up.

 

6 starts now

 

26.2 IP

12.15 K/9

1.69 BB/9

0.00 HR/9

1.01 ERA

1.92 FIP

2.67 xFIP

 

Meanwhile Alex de Jesus went from a 125 wRC+ in 226 AB's last year at the Dodgers A+ affiliate, to 79 wRC+ in 104 ABs with the Jays A+ affiliate last year, and now a 66 wRC+ in 139 ABs with the Jays A+ affiliate this season. Oh, and Mitch White fcuking sucks lol

[TheHurl]

I just made a 2023 $50 fWAR bet. Varsho vs Lourdes (no injury backout). It doubles for me if Varsho passes him by August 1st. What does everyone think?

[Orgfiller]

And what not to do:

 

Trade for or sign on FA contracts and therefore put too much faith into extremely mediocre late/mid career bullpen arms like Cimber, Bass, Swanson, Richards, Garcia, and Pop. That's how you end up with a disappointing pen while feeling like you can't really do anything with it. Because most of the guys don't have options or project "fine" or you traded for them recently and they "have good stuff" so you feel beholden to the asset.

 

You're not wrong, but a team like the Rays very much does this kind of thing. Fairbanks, Nick Anderson, Jalen Beeks (part of their current pen) were all traded for very tangible assets. They traded Willy Adames, the centerpiece of the Price deal, for J.P. Feyereisen (sucked, now good with the Dodgers), Drew Rasmussen - originally a reliever, good but broke under a starter's workload, and our very own Trevor Richards went to the Brewers, acquired via previous trade. It's just really f***ing hard to build a good bullpen, the elite arms are worth a fortune, the half capable ones cost real players (Teoscar, Groshans), and the rest of them are a bunch of gas cans.

[Captain_Obvious]

Nick Frasso continues to carve AA up.

 

6 starts now

 

26.2 IP

12.15 K/9

1.69 BB/9

0.00 HR/9

1.01 ERA

1.92 FIP

2.67 xFIP

 

Meanwhile Alex de Jesus went from a 125 wRC+ in 226 AB's last year at the Dodgers A+ affiliate, to 79 wRC+ in 104 ABs with the Jays A+ affiliate last year, and now a 66 wRC+ in 139 ABs with the Jays A+ affiliate this season. Oh, and Mitch White fcuking sucks lol

 

[John_Havok]

I just made a 2023 $50 fWAR bet. Varsho vs Lourdes (no injury backout). It doubles for me if Varsho passes him by August 1st. What does everyone think?

 

Not the worst bet in the world.

[Spanky__99]

I just made a 2023 $50 fWAR bet. Varsho vs Lourdes (no injury backout). It doubles for me if Varsho passes him by August 1st. What does everyone think?

 

Winner, winner... Chicken Dinner. Pusso on here with a big mouth wouldn't do it for a $100.

[Jonn]

Nick Frasso continues to carve AA up.

 

6 starts now

 

26.2 IP

12.15 K/9

1.69 BB/9

0.00 HR/9

1.01 ERA

1.92 FIP

2.67 xFIP

 

Meanwhile Alex de Jesus went from a 125 wRC+ in 226 AB's last year at the Dodgers A+ affiliate, to 79 wRC+ in 104 ABs with the Jays A+ affiliate last year, and now a 66 wRC+ in 139 ABs with the Jays A+ affiliate this season. Oh, and Mitch White fcuking sucks lol

 

God that trade was so f***ing bad. Horrendous at the time continues to somehow get worse. You know its bad when they were in no hurry to activate him during his rehab stint and then he got injured again lmao

[John_Havok]

God that trade was so f***ing bad. Horrendous at the time continues to somehow get worse. You know its bad when they were in no hurry to activate him during his rehab stint and then he got injured again lmao

 

They kinda fleeced LA for Stripling, so ... can't really bag on one bad trade to LA without acknowledging the good one too.

[BigCecil]

I just made a 2023 $50 fWAR bet. Varsho vs Lourdes (no injury backout). It doubles for me if Varsho passes him by August 1st. What does everyone think?

 

Solid. LGJ wont have any D value and is going to regress offensively. I see Varsho's D numbers are climbing and if there is a god he will get closer to 100 + wRC+. As long as Clements doesn't continue to PH for him lol. I don't think you will see the double though.

[Ehjays]

[Laika]

lil' Gabby Moreno now has a putrid .688 OPS and only 0.3 fWAR

 

a replacement level season is in the realm of possibilities

 

he is a surprisingly bad baserunner!?

 

good trade remains good, I never doubted it

[Spanky__99]

lil' Gabby Moreno now has a putrid .688 OPS and only 0.3 fWAR

 

a replacement level season is in the realm of possibilities

 

he is a surprisingly bad baserunner!?

 

good trade remains good, I never doubted it

 

lol

[Jonn]

lil' Gabby Moreno now has a putrid .688 OPS and only 0.3 fWAR

 

a replacement level season is in the realm of possibilities

 

he is a surprisingly bad baserunner!?

 

good trade remains good, I never doubted it

 

And Varsho has an anemic .663 OPS playing the corner OF in the AL East. Not even comparable. I would take that trade back in a heartbeat.