Former Blue Jays Thread

[John_Havok]

Correct, but you can assess whether it was an overpay or not - Sure as hell not 8 weeks in.

 

Yeah, there's relaly only 2 times to evaluate a trade - right away in which you analyze the process and the idea behind the trade, and then years later.

 

In a vacuum, 4 years of Varsho is far more valuable than 1 year of Gurriel, not even really close. Whether he signs an extension there or not doesnt factor in. The 6+ years of Moreno is what the real deciding factor will be. But evaluating the process at the time of the trade is simple: top prospect catcher with no power + pending FA outfielder who hasn't been particularly usefull on any side of the ball in 3 years in exchange for a legit defensive outfielder who does everything well except walk, and hits left handed with 4 years of control left = do it.

 

The argument that others are bringing up about whether they should have traded kirk or Jansen instead isnt even relevant.

[max silver]

What is this nonsense? By developing Jansen, Kirk and Moreno, we were able to make this trade in the first place. You say this like good teams never have to make trades. Like the Yankees didn't have to trade for Bader, or the Dodgers didn't need to trade for Betts, Turner, etc.

 

And lots of winning teams fill out their rotation with FA's.

 

This post still has merit as the team is struggling in recent years to develop outfield prospects. They have no good outfield replacements in the upper minors right now, and potential help like Gabriel Martinez is still years away.

[glory]

It doesnt matter if they traded the "right" catcher. They traded the catcher that Arizona wanted to get the trade done. That makes him the right catcher to trade.

 

Can't analyze a trade saying they should have traded X player instead of Y.

 

We’d have to compare Moreno/Varsho to whatever deal we may have been able to get for Kirk. Of course unless those offers are leaked then we will never know what the true alternative was. With that said, if Varsho continues to be a 3 to 4 WAR player again and Kirk finds his extra base power, then it won’t matter what Moreno becomes.

[Laika]

The thing with baseball is if you wait for the answer to be obvious, you'll be too slow. You'll never get the good players. You'll never sell the declining players in time.

 

You have to consistently search for an edge and act as quickly as possible.

 

It's "okay" sometimes to use visual or short term information as a supplement to statlines and projections. You can make decisions more quickly that way. There is risk to it, if you turn out to be stupid. But some people have a good brain at putting all of the information together and making quick decisions while being right more often than not.

 

Just not seeing anything with Varsho that makes me thing he could improve a bit on his fundamental skills, from 2022. That's a bit disappointing; there was a glimmer of hope when the trade happened that he might in fact be able to make incremental improvements and be a monster.

 

And the previous stuff I said on Moreno, I would reiterate.

 

Is 6 weeks long enough to make a conclusion on the trade? No, of course not.

 

Is 6 weeks enough time to start sliding your opinion on the probabilities a little bit? Absolutely.

[Brownie19]

This post still has merit as the team is struggling in recent years to develop outfield prospects. They have no good outfield replacements in the upper minors right now, and potential help like Gabriel Martinez is still years away.

 

What team develops starters at every position? Prospect development often comes in waves at different positions. Of course I wish the Jays were cranking out starting OFers, Starting Pitchers and Middle Infielders from their farm system on a yearly basis. So does every other team in baseball.

 

As Moneyball told us - everyone thinks they know what they have in prospects - but they don't. It's generally a massive crapshoot. Some are better than others, but in generally - everyone sucks at it.

[John_Havok]

We’d have to compare Moreno/Varsho to whatever deal we may have been able to get for Kirk. Of course unless those offers are leaked then we will never know what the true alternative was. With that said, if Varsho continues to be a 3 to 4 WAR player again and Kirk finds his extra base power, then it won’t matter what Moreno becomes.

 

There's is 0 way to know what Kirk would have got via trade, since no trade happened, so trying to evaluate the Moreno/Varsho trade against a hypothetical is really pointless.

[Stangstag]

Plus there's no way of knowing if the deal gets done with Kirk as the centrepiece. It might have been Moreno or GTFO.

 

Yeah this isn’t a video game. Some people seem to forget

[Stangstag]

The thing with baseball is if you wait for the answer to be obvious, you'll be too slow. You'll never get the good players. You'll never sell the declining players in time.

 

You have to consistently search for an edge and act as quickly as possible.

 

It's "okay" sometimes to use visual or short term information as a supplement to statlines and projections. You can make decisions more quickly that way. There is risk to it, if you turn out to be stupid. But some people have a good brain at putting all of the information together and making quick decisions while being right more often than not.

 

Just not seeing anything with Varsho that makes me thing he could improve a bit on his fundamental skills, from 2022. That's a bit disappointing; there was a glimmer of hope when the trade happened that he might in fact be able to make incremental improvements and be a monster.

 

And the previous stuff I said on Moreno, I would reiterate.

 

Is 6 weeks long enough to make a conclusion on the trade? No, of course not.

 

Is 6 weeks enough time to start sliding your opinion on the probabilities a little bit? Absolutely.

 

I would absolutely disagree with this statement.

 

Its f***ing Baseball dude, there’s 162 games

[Laika]

Plus there's no way of knowing if the deal gets done with Kirk as the centrepiece. It might have been Moreno or GTFO.

 

Kirk MIGHT have landed Alek Thomas. Some people here liked Thomas. He sucked and was recently demoted.

[max silver]

What team develops starters at every position? Prospect development often comes in waves at different positions. Of course I wish the Jays were cranking out starting OFers, Starting Pitchers and Middle Infielders from their farm system on a yearly basis. So does every other team in baseball.

 

As Moneyball told us - everyone thinks they know what they have in prospects - but they don't. It's generally a massive crapshoot. Some are better than others, but in generally - everyone sucks at it.

 

The Jays haven't even developed a passable 4th outfielder in recent memory so it goes well beyond developing starters.

[Laika]

I would absolutely disagree with this statement.

 

Its f***ing Baseball dude, there’s 162 games

 

Not everything takes 162 games to stabilize.

 

We also have some new categorical knowledge. e.g. we are pretty damn certain at this point that Moreno is not going to flop. We did not know that 6 weeks ago.

[Stangstag]

The Jays haven't even developed a passable 4th outfielder in recent memory so it goes well beyond developing starters.

 

The OF pipeline has been an absolute disaster for years.

 

Snider, Thames, Gose, Pompey, Alford, etc. were all supposed to be decent-above average players. All highly rated prospects that just never did anything.

 

The only decent OFs we developed were Pillar, Lourdes (moved from INF) and Teo (mostly developed in the Astros system)

[Stangstag]

Not everything takes 162 games to stabilize.

 

We also have some new categorical knowledge. e.g. we are pretty damn certain at this point that Moreno is not going to flop. We did not know that 6 weeks ago.

 

If its a 1 year trade then fine, but no this is a trade with many years of control attached. You can’t start changing your mind 6 weeks in.

 

And you’re acting like we’ve never seen a rookie have success for a few weeks and then fizzle out to nothing.

 

Like come on dude, you can’t be serious here. You’re smarter than this.

[John_Havok]

The Jays haven't even developed a passable 4th outfielder in recent memory so it goes well beyond developing starters.

 

TBH I really don't care if the Jays ever develop a 4th OF. They can be found anywhere and signed for cheap. But your point stands about the OF in general. I think their last OF delveloped internally was Gurriel Jr.

[Laika]

If its a 1 year trade then fine, but no this is a trade with many years of control attached. You can’t start changing your mind 6 weeks in.

 

And you’re acting like we’ve never seen a rookie have success for a few weeks and then fizzle out to nothing.

 

Like come on dude, you can’t be serious here. You’re smarter than this.

 

You're not understanding the nuance of what I am saying.

 

It's okay. Sleep on it.

[glory]

There's is 0 way to know what Kirk would have got via trade, since no trade happened, so trying to evaluate the Moreno/Varsho trade against a hypothetical is really pointless.

 

The hypothetical of "we could have gotten X for Kirk" is pointless. The decision to trade Moreno instead of Kirk isn't. There were arguments to keep or trade any of the 3 catchers during the off season. The only thing we don't know for sure is what the offers were for the others (or even the other offers available for Moreno), so we can safely assume the Jays went with the trade they perceived as being the best value, but we can still debate whether they chose the right player to trade.

 

To clarify, I was fine with them trading Moreno for Varsho. Whether it was fair value player for player or not is debatable, but the team's window is 2023-25, and Kirk/Jansen was probably the safest way of maximizing that window without the risk of having to wait to see if Moreno turned into something (if he ever does). Plus getting a legit defensive CF who can also hit is becoming very difficult, never mind the Jays inability to develop OF'ers internally over the years. If you asked me which catcher I would have wanted to keep long term it would have been Moreno because I don't trust Kirk's aging curve, but Moreno being an all star in 2026 does nothing for 2023-25's window with Vlad/Bo so that had to be the main consideration.

[Terminator]

Good job you guys. Don't let Laika get away with this waffling ********. Let's get his ass!

[John_Havok]

The hypothetical of "we could have gotten X for Kirk" is pointless. The decision to trade Moreno instead of Kirk isn't. There were arguments to keep or trade any of the 3 catchers during the off season. The only thing we don't know for sure is what the offers were for the others (or even the other offers available for Moreno), so we can safely assume the Jays went with the trade they perceived as being the best value, but we can still debate whether they chose the right player to trade.

 

To clarify, I was fine with them trading Moreno for Varsho. Whether it was fair value player for player or not is debatable, but the team's window is 2023-25, and Kirk/Jansen was probably the safest way of maximizing that window without the risk of having to wait to see if Moreno turned into something (if he ever does). Plus getting a legit defensive CF who can also hit is becoming very difficult, never mind the Jays inability to develop OF'ers internally over the years. If you asked me which catcher I would have wanted to keep long term it would have been Moreno because I don't trust Kirk's aging curve, but Moreno being an all star in 2026 does nothing for 2023-25's window with Vlad/Bo so that had to be the main consideration.

 

But they point is we dont know if there were any offers at all on Kirk, of course his name would have come up at some point, but for all we know, other teams either didnt want him at all, or not at the asking price. So the idea of wanting to trade Kirk rather than Moreno is valid, but you cant judge the Varsho/Moreno trade against a decision "not to trade" Kirk. Since a trade of Kirk never happened, we simply cannot know if there was ever a trade containing his name that was even possible, so it's literally pointless to compare what happened to what didnt happen.

 

To be fair, I would rather have traded Kirk too if there was a trade to be done.

[Jonn]

Jays will regret trading Moreno and probably already do. Kid rakes and has a cannon behind the plate. He’s probably already better than Kirk and Jansen.

[Stangstag]

Jays will regret trading Moreno and probably already do. Kid rakes and has a cannon behind the plate. He’s probably already better than Kirk and Jansen.

 

Bait

[John_Havok]

Some nice bait posts above. Lets see if they catch anything.

[gruber92]

Jays will regret trading Moreno and probably already do. Kid rakes and has a cannon behind the plate. He’s probably already better than Kirk and Jansen.

 

All kidding aside, catchers like Moreno don't come along very often. I get we had to get more left handed and solidify CF defensively which we did with four years of Varsho. It's still a tough pill to swallow

You have to wonder if there were any other options in obtaining a CF with some control without including Moreno.

[G-Snarls]

All kidding aside, catchers like Moreno don't come along very often. I get we had to get more left handed and solidify CF defensively which we did with four years of Varsho. It's still a tough pill to swallow

You have to wonder if there were any other options in obtaining a CF with some control without including Moreno.

 

I'll say this again here

 

The fact that it took Moreno to get Varsho

The fact that the Yankees and others couldn't make a trade for Reynolds (a player the Yankees could have used desperately)

 

Suggests asking prices were very high

[wilko]

I'll say this again here

 

The fact that it took Moreno to get Varsho

The fact that the Yankees and others couldn't make a trade for Reynolds (a player the Yankees could have used desperately)

 

Suggests asking prices were very high

 

Why would the Yankees go after Reynolds when they got Aaron Hicks?

[G-Snarls]

Why would the Yankees go after Reynolds when they got Aaron Hicks?

 

[jaysblue]

Right and 6 weeks shouldn’t change anybody’s opinion.

 

This is a trade that can’t be fully evaluated until like 3-4 years from now.

 

And people really gotta stop worrying about “winning” or “losing” the trade. Trades can be even or teams can take a bit less return on a trade if they’re dealing from a position of strength and the potential suitors don’t fit.

 

End of the day it very likely turns out to be a solid trade for both teams.

 

I don't think some of us are too worried about "winning" or "losing" the trade. I've even said numerous times that I liked it and understand the trade from the Jays perspective in terms of their timeline. I'm not worried about Varsho at all. Have him under control for 4 seasons and there is still room for him to grow into a better player.

 

My issue here is how some posters praise Kirk as an amazing stud behind the plate while discounting what Moreno has done so far. It's like you can't offer constructive criticism on Kirk or else you're attacked. Same thing if you praise the job Moreno has done or if you say Moreno could end up being better than Kirk, you're attacked as well.

[jaysblue]

It seems like some posters on here can't fathom that Moreno could end up being better than Kirk. But you can't suggest that at all or else pitch forks come after you.

 

If Moreno ends up providing more value than Kirk/Jansen over the next 4-5 years, which is possible, I don't see an issue. Like we've said, we don't know who Arizona preferred or wanted. Did they prefer Kirk over Moreno, visa versa? We'll never know so its a moot point.

 

The key piece for the Blue Jays is Varsho. If he performs at an elite level where he is averaging 4-5 WAR per season, and if Varsho helps them win a World Series, then the Jays are more than okay.

[Terminator]

So far in his young career, Varsho has been a far better 2nd half player. The best has yet to come.

[Stangstag]

It seems like some posters on here can't fathom that Moreno could end up being better than Kirk. But you can't suggest that at all or else pitch forks come after you.

 

If Moreno ends up providing more value than Kirk/Jansen over the next 4-5 years, which is possible, I don't see an issue. Like we've said, we don't know who Arizona preferred or wanted. Did they prefer Kirk over Moreno, visa versa? We'll never know so its a moot point.

 

The key piece for the Blue Jays is Varsho. If he performs at an elite level where he is averaging 4-5 WAR per season, and if Varsho helps them win a World Series, then the Jays are more than okay.

 

Kirk has 241 games in the majors and a career 120wRC+ even with his recent struggles

 

Moreno has 59 games with a 106 wRC+ fueled by a career .378 BABIP

 

There's a major gap between the two still. Obviously Moreno is the better defender. Anyways that's all i'm getting at. People are being a bit unfair in their current assessment of Kirk while overlooking the fact that Moreno's numbers could very well be a mirage.

[Stangstag]

It seems like some posters on here can't fathom that Moreno could end up being better than Kirk. But you can't suggest that at all or else pitch forks come after you.

 

If Moreno ends up providing more value than Kirk/Jansen over the next 4-5 years, which is possible, I don't see an issue. Like we've said, we don't know who Arizona preferred or wanted. Did they prefer Kirk over Moreno, visa versa? We'll never know so its a moot point.

 

The key piece for the Blue Jays is Varsho. If he performs at an elite level where he is averaging 4-5 WAR per season, and if Varsho helps them win a World Series, then the Jays are more than okay.

 

And yeah I agree on this. We desperately needed an outfielder for the next few years. If they ended up signing Nimmo then maybe this trade doesn't happen.