Former Blue Jays Thread

[Orgfiller]

Frasso has an outside shot at being a back end Starter. And he has the stuff to pitch at the back end of any bullpen. That’s his worst case scenario.

 

Mitch White stuff isn’t even comparable. He could be the 5th Starter on a rebuilding team but best used as a Swingman or Longman on a good team. A depth arm on a World Series contender.

 

That trade was puzzling the moment it happened.

 

Frasso's worst case scenario absolutely isn't any of those things. That's maybe his 50th percentile outcome at best. His worst case scenario is he gets injured again and he turns into a pumpkin or he gets exposed at the upper levels when he's no longer more polished than his competition (struggling career minor leaguers and young prospects). Mitch White did exactly what Frasso is doing now, and actually has had a modicum of MLB success as a swingman.

 

Fangraphs gave Frasso a 40+ FV at the beginning of the year. That's usually a pretty good reliever, but not elite high-leverage arm, or a backend starter. Mitch White is basically a backend starter/swingman type right now.

[Spanky__99]

Frasso has an outside shot at being a back end Starter. And he has the stuff to pitch at the back end of any bullpen. That’s his worst case scenario.

 

Mitch White stuff isn’t even comparable. He could be the 5th Starter on a rebuilding team but best used as a Swingman or Longman on a good team. A depth arm on a World Series contender.

 

That trade was puzzling the moment it happened.

 

Toronto also got this guy in the trade man, it was a good deal...

 

Alex De Jesus

TLDR

Full Report

A sweetener balancing the trade that sent Mitch White to Toronto, De Jesus performed very well before the deal (despite lots of strikeouts) and not so well after it. At a mix of Low- and High-A (the Low-A portion was De Jesus repeating the Cal League), he hit a combined .263/.370.433 with a 30% K%. Just shy of turning 21 as of list publication, De Jesus already has above-average raw power and will likely have at least plus raw at maturity. He derives it mostly from his physicality; his swing isn't elaborate or effortful in order to create power. Once body-comp'd to Manny Machado, De Jesus is already bigger than Manny. Even though he continues to take many reps at shortstop, at this size and age, De Jesus is very likely to be a third base-only defender by the time his bat is ready for the big leagues, and he might play a corner infield combo over time. That means it's now extremely important that he manage the swing-and-miss issues that have been a problem for stretches of his career. He doesn't chase all that much, with most of his swinging and missing instead done in the strike zone. One can envision him playing a role in the Bobby Dalbec/Matt Davidson mold, an extreme power-over-hit corner bat who can give you 30 annual homers if you're willing to live with all the strikeouts. The plate discipline De Jesus has now shown throughout his career reinforces that he'll have the overall offensive output to play a role like that.

[Jonn]

Frasso's worst case scenario absolutely isn't any of those things. That's maybe his 50th percentile outcome at best. His worst case scenario is he gets injured again and he turns into a pumpkin or he gets exposed at the upper levels when he's no longer more polished than his competition (struggling career minor leaguers and young prospects). Mitch White did exactly what Frasso is doing now, and actually has had a modicum of MLB success as a swingman.

 

Fangraphs gave Frasso a 40+ FV at the beginning of the year. That's usually a pretty good reliever, but not elite high-leverage arm, or a backend starter. Mitch White is basically a backend starter/swingman type right now.

 

Well sure if hes get injured he could absolutely be a pumpkin. But he's back healthy and has been extremely successful. Regardless of level he also missed a lot of time not pitching. His stuff and current trajectory and leading him to a fast track to the big leagues. I think at the low end the Dodgers get a really good reliever. I don't think he will be a Starter but I don't see any reason why not to continue to build up and find out.

 

It's hard for me to view Mitch White as many more than depth. Obviously I hope he pitches well. But he does not have the arm Frasso does.

[John_Havok]

not really a fan of that arm action

 

I hurt just watching that arm action. Can see how it creates a lot of deception. Repeatability would be difficult and its easy to see how he could lose his release point pretty easily. As a hitter, it would be a pretty uneasy feeling to see all of that flying at you and trying to pick up a ball out of his hand.

[Eat My Shatkins]

I can't believe Terminator hasn't come in here yet to take a huge smelly dump all over Frasso yet haha

[Jonn]

I can't believe Terminator hasn't come in here yet to take a huge smelly dump all over Frasso yet haha

 

Well hes got real quiet on the Cody Bellinger front. I know that.

[Spanky__99]

Heh...

 

https://www.bluejaysmessageboard.com/threads/10446-The-Blue-Jays-acquire-Mitchell-White?highlight=Frasso+traded+Mitch+White

[Spanky__99]

Ben Badler's breakdown of that trade...

 

 

By Ben Badler on August 2, 2022

 

The Blue Jays and Dodgers swapped a pair of Top 30 prospects from their own organizations, with third baseman Alex De Jesus going to Toronto and righthander Nick Frasso heading to Los Angeles. The Blue Jays also get major league righthander Mitch White, while Dominican Summer League lefthander Moises Brito joins the Dodgers.

 

DODGERS RECEIVE

 

Nick Frasso, RHP

Age: 23

 

Frasso is the most intriguing player here. He was a riser on the midseason Top 30 rankings for the Blue Jays, moving up to No. 13 in the system. Through two Class A levels, Frasso had an ERA of 0.74 in 36.2 innings with 57 strikeouts and 10 walks. The limited innings stem from Frasso, a fourth-round pick from Loyola Marymount in 2020, coming back from Tommy John surgery that he had in 2021 and pitching just five innings last year. At the time the Blue Jays drafted Frasso, there were a lot of promising projection indicators in place as a bouncy, athletic strike-thrower with more space to fill out his 6-foot-5 frame and potentially add more velocity to his fastball that was reaching the mid 90s and playing up because of the extension he generates out front. This year, that projection has materialized and enhanced his fastball, which now operates more regularly in the mid-to-upper 90s and has touched 100 mph, albeit in shorter bursts as the Blue Jays managed his workload. His slider is a swing-and-miss pitch and his changeup has improved as well, showing good fading action when it's on to miss bats. Frasso has the pitch mix and control to project as a starter. Whether he can handle that workload for a full season was a question coming out of the draft (he never topped 60 innings in college, and still hasn't in pro ball), so it's an even bigger one now that he's a 23-year-old coming off TJ. Even if his future is in the bullpen, Frasso has high-leverage relief potential.

 

Moises Brito, LHP

 

Age: 20

 

Signed out of the Dominican Republic, Brito is 6-foot-5, 215 pounds and pitching in his first professional season this year in the Dominican Summer League, where he has a 1.86 ERA in 29 innings with 32 strikeouts and one walk. Brito throws a lot of strikes, but it's with a mid-to-upper-80s fastball, so barring a significant uptick in his stuff, he's more of an organizational depth player.

 

BLUE JAYS RECEIVE

 

Alex De Jesus, 3B

Age: 20

 

De Jesus was one of the bigger international signings for the Dodgers in 2018 when he landed a $500,000 bonus out of the Dominican Republic. This year, he hit .259/.398/.483 in 37 games for Low-A Rancho Cucamonga before a promotion to High-A Great Lakes, where he hit .282/.376/.421 in 50 games, with a combined 11 home runs, 60 walks (15%) and 115 strikeouts (29%) in 402 plate appearances between the two stops. That strikeout rate is on the higher side, but scouts highest on De Jesus believe he has a sound swing and tracks pitches well. De Jesus has shown the ability to drive the ball well on pitches middle-in, with better results on pitches on the outer third this year because he's not flying open early as often, helping him drive the ball well in the air the opposite way. It's still an aggressive approach that he will have to rein in some, but some scouts see De Jesus as a future everyday third baseman with 20-25 home run power. De Jesus has spent time at shortstop, but his range fits better at third base, with the hands and plus arm to stay there.

 

Mitch White, RHP

Age: 27

 

White has been a useful pitcher for the Dodgers, posting a 3.70 ERA in 56 innings split between starting and relief with 47 strikeouts and 19 walks. It's low impact, inexpensive depth for a player who won't be eligible for arbitration until 2025 and won't be a free agent until 2028.

[MikeM3]

Frasso has fastball traits that don't exist. You can't trade that for a depth pitcher. We should be able to come up with our own Mitch Whites.

[Spanky__99]

Frasso has fastball traits that don't exist. You can't trade that for a depth pitcher. We should be able to come up with our own Mitch Whites.

 

We didn't have one, that trade was made out of necessity and it isn't or wasn't bad at all.

[Brownie19]

Well sure if hes get injured he could absolutely be a pumpkin. But he's back healthy and has been extremely successful. Regardless of level he also missed a lot of time not pitching. His stuff and current trajectory and leading him to a fast track to the big leagues. I think at the low end the Dodgers get a really good reliever. I don't think he will be a Starter but I don't see any reason why not to continue to build up and find out.

 

It's hard for me to view Mitch White as many more than depth. Obviously I hope he pitches well. But he does not have the arm Frasso does.

 

You can't evaluate this trade without taking into account of often Frasso's been hurt to date. The probability that he blows out his arm and becomes a pumpkin is high. Would I have preferred to give up some noodle armed pitcher instead? Sure, but we had a pretty major need for starting pitching depth. It would have been nice if we could have simply developed our own Mitch White - but we hadn't at that time.

[Laika]

Frasso has fastball traits that don't exist. You can't trade that for a depth pitcher. We should be able to come up with our own Mitch Whites.

 

If the traits don't exist how does he have them???

 

Is he a ghost or something

 

A transdimensional pitcher?

[MikeM3]

If the traits don't exist how does he have them???

 

Is he a ghost or something

 

A transdimensional pitcher?

 

Atkins suxx with pitchers just accept it

[Laika]

Atkins suxx with pitchers just accept it

 

Oh yeah, xe is horrendous.

[Jonn]

The whole player development system needs to be looked at. The Rays have been good for over a decade and still have a streamline of good pitching and quality players with less than half the budget the Jays have. They also do an excellent job of stealing it from other organizations.

 

Outside of can’t miss prosects Jays have almost nothing homegrow. Our entire pitching staff outside of Manoah, Mayza, and Romano have come from other organizations or free agency at a premium.

 

The amount of money the Jays have spent on Starting Pitching since the Ryu signing has been insane.

[Spanky__99]

Jonn had a stroke.

[MikeM3]

The Rays would put a bullet in Mitch White and use his body for spare parts to R&D how to create their next ace out of a middle reliever.

 

As soon as you exhibit a dead zone fastball even one time, they just release you or send you to the gulag where a machine alters your arm angle and finger pressure for months until your fastball is outlier in some ridiculous way.

[Jonn]

Jonn had a stroke.

 

I mean its true. Blue Jays development of pitching or lack thereof is a massive issue. We can't keep arms like Frasso because we need them to go get depth arms. Ideally you should be developing your own 5th Starters and Swingman. Or atleast finding them at affordable prices instead of spending premiums on them.

[G-Snarls]

The whole player development system needs to be looked at. The Rays have been good for over a decade and still have a streamline of good pitching and quality players with less than half the budget the Jays have. They also do an excellent job of stealing it from other organizations.

 

Outside of can’t miss prosects Jays have almost nothing homegrow. Our entire pitching staff outside of Manoah, Mayza, and Romano have come from other organizations or free agency at a premium.

 

The amount of money the Jays have spent on Starting Pitching since the Ryu signing has been insane.

 

And it's not like the Rays make great use of their first round draft picks either. It's rather astonishing. Since 2010 they have these first round draft picks. Very few have become good major leaguers.

 

2010 Josh Sale OF Bishop Blanchet HS (WA) 17 $1,620,000

2010 Justin O'Conner C Cowan HS (IN) 31 $1,025,000

2010 Drew Vettleson OF Central Kitsap HS (WA) 42 $845,000

2011 Taylor Guerrieri RHP Spring Valley HS (SC) 24 $1,600,000

2011 Mikie Mahtook OF LSU 31 $1,150,000

2011 Jake Hager SS Sierra Vista HS (NV) 32 $963,000

2011 Brandon Martin SS Santiago HS (CA) 38 $860,000

2011 Tyler Goeddel 3B St. Francis HS (CA) 41 $1,500,000

2011 Jeff Ames RHP Lower Columbia College 42 $650,000

2011 Blake Snell LHP Shorewood HS (WA) 52 $684,000

2011 Kes Carter OF Western Kentucky University 56 $625,000

2011 Grayson Garvin LHP Vanderbilt University 59 $370,000

2011 James Harris OF Oakland Technical HS (CA) 60 $490,000

2012 Richie Shaffer 3B Clemson University 25 $1,712,500

2013 Nick Ciuffo C Lexington HS (SC) 21 $1,974,700

2013 Ryne Stanek RHP University of Arkansas 29 $1,758,300

2014 Casey Gillaspie 1B Wichita State University 20 $2,035,500

2015 Garrett Whitley OF Niskayuna HS (NY) 13 $2,962,100

2016 Josh Lowe 3B Pope HS (GA) 13 $2,600,000

2017 Brendan McKay 1B/LHP University of Louisville 4 $7,005,000

2017 Drew Rasmussen RHP Oregon State University 31 Did Not Sign

2018 Matthew Liberatore LHP Mountain Ridge HS (AZ) 16 $3,497,500

2018 Shane McClanahan LHP University of South Florida 31 $2,230,100

2018 Nick Schnell OF Roncalli HS (IN) 32 $2,297,500

2019 Greg Jones SS UNC Wilmington 22

2019 J.J. Goss RHP Cypress Ranch Hill HS (TX) 36

2019 Seth Johnson RHP Campbell University 40

2020 Nick Bitsko RHP Central Bucks HS East (PA) 24

2020 Alika Williams SS Arizona State University 37

2021 Carson Willams SS Torrey Pines HS (CA) 28

2021 Cooper Kinney

[Krylian]

Atkins suxx with pitchers just accept it

 

How does that answer the question?

[John_Havok]

And it's not like the Rays make great use of their first round draft picks either. It's rather astonishing. Since 2010 they have these first round draft picks. Very few have become good major leaguers.

 

2010 Josh Sale OF Bishop Blanchet HS (WA) 17 $1,620,000

2010 Justin O'Conner C Cowan HS (IN) 31 $1,025,000

2010 Drew Vettleson OF Central Kitsap HS (WA) 42 $845,000

2011 Taylor Guerrieri RHP Spring Valley HS (SC) 24 $1,600,000

2011 Mikie Mahtook OF LSU 31 $1,150,000

2011 Jake Hager SS Sierra Vista HS (NV) 32 $963,000

2011 Brandon Martin SS Santiago HS (CA) 38 $860,000

2011 Tyler Goeddel 3B St. Francis HS (CA) 41 $1,500,000

2011 Jeff Ames RHP Lower Columbia College 42 $650,000

2011 Blake Snell LHP Shorewood HS (WA) 52 $684,000

2011 Kes Carter OF Western Kentucky University 56 $625,000

2011 Grayson Garvin LHP Vanderbilt University 59 $370,000

2011 James Harris OF Oakland Technical HS (CA) 60 $490,000

2012 Richie Shaffer 3B Clemson University 25 $1,712,500

2013 Nick Ciuffo C Lexington HS (SC) 21 $1,974,700

2013 Ryne Stanek RHP University of Arkansas 29 $1,758,300

2014 Casey Gillaspie 1B Wichita State University 20 $2,035,500

2015 Garrett Whitley OF Niskayuna HS (NY) 13 $2,962,100

2016 Josh Lowe 3B Pope HS (GA) 13 $2,600,000

2017 Brendan McKay 1B/LHP University of Louisville 4 $7,005,000

2017 Drew Rasmussen RHP Oregon State University 31 Did Not Sign

2018 Matthew Liberatore LHP Mountain Ridge HS (AZ) 16 $3,497,500

2018 Shane McClanahan LHP University of South Florida 31 $2,230,100

2018 Nick Schnell OF Roncalli HS (IN) 32 $2,297,500

2019 Greg Jones SS UNC Wilmington 22

2019 J.J. Goss RHP Cypress Ranch Hill HS (TX) 36

2019 Seth Johnson RHP Campbell University 40

2020 Nick Bitsko RHP Central Bucks HS East (PA) 24

2020 Alika Williams SS Arizona State University 37

2021 Carson Willams SS Torrey Pines HS (CA) 28

2021 Cooper Kinney

 

2016-2018 was a pretty nice run

[G-Snarls]

2016-2018 was a pretty nice run

 

Their only good stretch since Price and Longoria

 

It is still a LOT of 1st round picks that amounted to nothing though

[BigCecil]

Varsho sucko so far at the plate. Will he be the 98-108 wRC+ guy or the outlier Zips 130 projection bat? 89 now and 0.2 WAR. Will be interesting to watch.

 

Teo has got it going with the stick 0.5 WAR.

Edited April 23, 2023 by BigCecil

[MikeM3]

How does that answer the question?

 

 

Read that whole thread for the answer.

[Stangstag]

Varsho sucko so far at the plate. Will he be the 98-108 wRC+ guy or the outlier Zips 130 projection bat? 89 now and 0.2 WAR. Will be interesting to watch.

 

Teo has got it going with the stick - 0.5 WAR.

 

He just seems really streaky to me. Had a rough first few weeks of ST, then found it near the end and carried it into the season, now cold again.

 

He’s having good at bats just swinging straight through fastballs. Timing looks off

[John_Havok]

He just seems really streaky to me. Had a rough first few weeks of ST, then found it near the end and carried it into the season, now cold again.

 

He’s having good at bats just swinging straight through fastballs. Timing looks off

 

Yeah, timing just a tad off, like he's waiting that extra split second to recognize the pitch. Give him a bit of rope of course, he's seeing a lot of these pitchers for the 1st or 2nd time ever. I might consider moving him down the order more to take some pressure off. Seems like he's always up there with RISP and 2 outs.

[Grant77]

Varsho sucko so far at the plate. Will he be the 98-108 wRC+ guy or the outlier Zips 130 projection bat? 89 now and 0.2 WAR. Will be interesting to watch.

 

Teo has got it going with the stick - 0.5 WAR.

 

They will need him to step up. His team is 9-11 and hitting .228, having played almost the entirety of their schedule at home.

[wilko]

Varsho sucko so far at the plate. Will he be the 98-108 wRC+ guy or the outlier Zips 130 projection bat? 89 now and 0.2 WAR. Will be interesting to watch.

 

Teo has got it going with the stick 0.5 WAR.

 

I don't think he should be hitting 4th right now... Put him down to 6th or so for now. I think he will come around soon.

[Stangstag]

Varsho sucko so far at the plate. Will he be the 98-108 wRC+ guy or the outlier Zips 130 projection bat? 89 now and 0.2 WAR. Will be interesting to watch.

 

Teo has got it going with the stick 0.5 WAR.

 

I don’t think the WAR is accurate right now, defensive metrics definitely out of whack. There’s no universe where Teo is a positive defender and Varsho is a negative defender.

[John_Havok]

I don’t think the WAR is accurate right now, defensive metrics definitely out of whack. There’s no universe where Teo is a positive defender and Varsho is a negative defender.

 

SSS variance.

 

DRS has Teo at 5 runs saved, Varsho at 4. OAA has Teo as 1 out above average, Varsho at 0.

 

 

Right now the numbers suggest Teo is the 2nd best RF in MLB defensively. I think we all know that's not the case.