General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2023)

[Eat My Shatkins]

That's an interesting observation. Pre-season, you were really happy with the team (most were) and thought they had a legit shot. However, we ran into some really shocking and unexpected s***** years from several regulars and we sputter into a WC birth, s*** the bed and go home. The team may essentially roll out a very similar team in 2024 and that won't be good enough for you - we need to do better, which I assume you believe simply based on the results of last year. The issue is all the variability in the potential outcomes each year. If you simulated 2023 100 times, we might actually win the WS 5 times and win a playoff round or 2 like 60% of the time - yet rolling the dice with the same squad is deemed unacceptable, simply because it failed last year.

 

Yep, it's a good team, yes they failed last year but it's a good team. Maybe it's better they run it back again as opposed to making desperate moves that may hurt way more in the long run.

 

The run suppression should still be there with this team, maybe the offense will be there this time too.

[John_Havok]

That's an interesting observation. Pre-season, you were really happy with the team (most were) and thought they had a legit shot. However, we ran into some really shocking and unexpected s***** years from several regulars and we sputter into a WC birth, s*** the bed and go home. The team may essentially roll out a very similar team in 2024 and that won't be good enough for you - we need to do better, which I assume you believe simply based on the results of last year. The issue is all the variability in the potential outcomes each year. If you simulated 2023 100 times, we might actually win the WS 5 times and win a playoff round or 2 like 60% of the time - yet rolling the dice with the same squad is deemed unacceptable, simply because it failed last year.

 

Good explanation. It pretty much encapsulates how fans think vs how successful business people (sports executives included) think.

 

Fans demand instant gratification and anything less means the GM should be fired. Hitter has a bad month he should be traded. Closer blows 2 straight saves? DFA…he’s worthless. No WS this season? Fire the entire front office before selling the team to someone who actually wants to win. They don’t understand variance or the massive scale of these operations and probably don’t care.

 

Most posters here at least have a better understanding of the game and aren’t Sportsnet article comment section level morons. It’s just that they all have different definitions of what a successful franchise is.

 

It seems to me there’s only 3 or 4 main categories that fans use to determine a successful franchise. Championship wins, playoff series wins, regular season records and how much money is spent to achieve those things. Different people would weight each category differently because reasons. No weighting is ever really “right” …because it’s subjective for each fan.

 

Execs and Owners of course have completely different categories and far different weighting

[L54]

BigCecil is not a successful business man because he wishes the Blue Jays won playoff games

 

What is this nonsense?

[BigCecil]

It seems to me there’s only 3 or 4 main categories that fans use to determine a successful franchise. Championship wins, playoff series wins, regular season records and how much money is spent to achieve those things. Different people would weight each category differently because reasons. No weighting is ever really “right” …because it’s subjective for each fan.

 

Execs and Owners of course have completely different categories and far different weighting

 

Performance viewed by ownership vs performance viewed by fans are mostly 2 different things.

 

Often there is a correlation eventually between the two. Thats why Execs get rope to deal with that reality and either stick or go.

[BigCecil]

Yeah they care, especially with him, but do they care as much as the Jays who sign guys in their 30s to 5 year deals?

 

My guess is that they don't emphasize it nearly as much nor should they. And the endless resource plays a part in that as well. If the Rays 45 FV pitcher gets better results by throwing harder and throwing more sliders they will accept the risk and have him do it knowing that they have a guy waiting in the wings once his arm implodes.

 

On the other hand because they don't spend big money like you point out the Jays did/can, they need those arm assets to move as they lose years of control to restock.

 

I think in both cases they value them and take care to protect them.

[BigCecil]

BigCecil is not a successful business man because he wishes the Blue Jays won playoff games

 

What is this nonsense?

 

There are good reasons for the Ignore list bud.

[L54]

There are good reasons for the Ignore list bud.

 

I am a free speech apologist but I did have to use it once

[connorp]

That's an interesting observation. Pre-season, you were really happy with the team (most were) and thought they had a legit shot. However, we ran into some really shocking and unexpected s***** years from several regulars and we sputter into a WC birth, s*** the bed and go home. The team may essentially roll out a very similar team in 2024 and that won't be good enough for you - we need to do better, which I assume you believe simply based on the results of last year. The issue is all the variability in the potential outcomes each year. If you simulated 2023 100 times, we might actually win the WS 5 times and win a playoff round or 2 like 60% of the time - yet rolling the dice with the same squad is deemed unacceptable, simply because it failed last year.

 

Dodgers could’ve saved $1b plus running it back. Playoff team as is.

[connorp]

Good explanation. It pretty much encapsulates how fans think vs how successful business people (sports executives included) think.

 

Fans demand instant gratification and anything less means the GM should be fired. Hitter has a bad month he should be traded. Closer blows 2 straight saves? DFA…he’s worthless. No WS this season? Fire the entire front office before selling the team to someone who actually wants to win. They don’t understand variance or the massive scale of these operations and probably don’t care.

 

Most posters here at least have a better understanding of the game and aren’t Sportsnet article comment section level morons. It’s just that they all have different definitions of what a successful franchise is.

 

It seems to me there’s only 3 or 4 main categories that fans use to determine a successful franchise. Championship wins, playoff series wins, regular season records and how much money is spent to achieve those things. Different people would weight each category differently because reasons. No weighting is ever really “right” …because it’s subjective for each fan.

 

Execs and Owners of course have completely different categories and far different weighting

 

My friend, do you think the Bluejays were in an Ohtani and others up to a certain point? The Jays are not accepting last year as bad luck, as you guys seem to be suggesting. They just won’t spend to spend essentially.

[Brownie19]

My friend, do you think the Bluejays were in an Ohtani and others up to a certain point? The Jays are not accepting last year as bad luck, as you guys seem to be suggesting. They just won’t spend to spend essentially.

 

That's essentially what we're saying man - you're a little behind.

[Spanky99]

There are good reasons for the Ignore list bud.

 

Someone said that? lol

[Brownie19]

Someone said that? lol

 

Not that I can see. Maybe I'm on his ignore list as he hasn't responded to a few of my questions. I can fly off the handle a bit, but I don't think I'm ignore list material. Maybe I'm wrong. That's certainly not what I was trying to imply.

Edited January 4, 2024 by Brownie19

[Rimar]

Atkins happy with the current rosters? He's delusional:lol Because he did a lazy work to improve the team, was easily played by Ohtani agent and Boras, and now we still don't have quality players at 3B, LF, DH, 2B. Biggio, Schneider, Espinal, IKF, Barger, Clement, Elvis are only less than average bench players and should never be on starting lineup. And I see KK as journeyman who will be in lineup when Springer will have day off or Varsho will be in lethargie as usual for 75% of time😄 Kirk or Biggio as DH? Come on, need stop joking. Also without Hicks, bullpen is worse than in 2023.

[BigCecil]

Someone said that? lol

 

Not sure bud. Didn't really look. Bunch of circular endless FO and state of the nation arguments that go round and round daily, when all will soon enough be revealed in terms of this off season and 2024. Its a big year or two for us.

 

At the EOD, if the ownership is happy with the financial & team perception/performance, the FO sticks. If they feel the business is trending negatively financially & perception wise, sacrifice (s) will be offered up for change - much like Ross did when he canned Buntoyo. Fairness doesn't enter into it. Like Tessio said in the Godfather just before he got whacked "Tell Michael it was only business - I always liked him".

[Marew]

Would be curious to see big Cecil financials

[connorp]

That's essentially what we're saying man - you're a little behind.

 

Ah. I guess you covered both angles talking from both sides of the mouth, carry on.

[John_Havok]

My friend, do you think the Bluejays were in an Ohtani and others up to a certain point? The Jays are not accepting last year as bad luck, as you guys seem to be suggesting. They just won’t spend to spend essentially.

 

I didnt making any insinuations on how the Jays management specifically accepts last season, just that ownership and management in general don’t view an organizations successes in the same black and white basics that fans do. Hell, owners likely view success differently than front offices do as well.

 

Ownership wants to make money. There is a correlation to championships and money of course, but it’s not the direct linear line that people expect. The big market teams don’t need to win WS and they’ll still make hundreds of millions of dollars more than any small market team like Baltimore even if the Os win 3 of the next 4 WS, not that it would ever happen since the team is owned by cheapskates who pocket all the money rather than spend it.

 

Yes, publicly they have to say they want to win because that’s what you say. But the reality is, the owners only care about the money, winning is just for bragging rights at Epstein Island while they get their taints fondled by sex trafficked slaves.

 

Front office guys..yeah they still care more about winning because that’s what their bragging rights are. That’s their ego filler, their metaphorical dick measuring device. But the front office of Tampa and the front office of the Dodgers definitely don’t have the same kind of expectations, so how happy the FOs are with their winning is definitely some kind of sliding scale. Tampas FO should be nowhere near as pissed as not winning the WS as the Dodgers, Mets, Braves, etc….given the discrepancies in assets.

[Carlos Danger]

That's an interesting observation. Pre-season, you were really happy with the team (most were) and thought they had a legit shot. However, we ran into some really shocking and unexpected s***** years from several regulars and we sputter into a WC birth, s*** the bed and go home. The team may essentially roll out a very similar team in 2024 and that won't be good enough for you - we need to do better, which I assume you believe simply based on the results of last year. The issue is all the variability in the potential outcomes each year. If you simulated 2023 100 times, we might actually win the WS 5 times and win a playoff round or 2 like 60% of the time - yet rolling the dice with the same squad is deemed unacceptable, simply because it failed last year.

 

The problem with this is that last year we had a window that I do not believe we will have this year. You are looking at the Blue Jays in a vacuum and don't appear to be considering that there is a high probability the Yankees are better, Boston is better, The Orioles are even better, and other AL teams are all better and fighting for the WC spots. I even believe Detroit will be making a WC run this year. s***, I didn't even mention the Rays whom are always good.

 

Making just a slight improvement on last years team based on bounce back years, and a season where we had outstanding 1-4 SP health, is not a model for a high probability of success IMO.

[John_Havok]

The problem with this is that last year we had a window that I do not believe we will have this year. You are looking at the Blue Jays in a vacuum and don't appear to be considering that there is a high probability the Yankees are better, Boston is better, The Orioles are even better, and other AL teams are all better and fighting for the WC spots. I even believe Detroit will be making a WC run this year. s***, I didn't even mention the Rays whom are always good.

 

Making just a slight improvement on last years team based on bounce back years, and a season where we had outstanding 1-4 SP health, is not a model for a high probability of success IMO.

 

Part of what you say is true, but what about the chances that those teams you mentioned aren’t better? You have to factor that in as well. This is the kind of thinking that permeates fanbases, they always think the other teams in their divisions are the only ones that will be better and only their team will be worse.

 

Baltimore won’t win 101 games in 2024

[Eat My Shatkins]

And are the Yankees really that scary? After Soto and Judge their offense isn't daunting, and they gave up some starting pitching to get Soto in the first place.

 

If Rodon is injured again their rotation is hot ass after Cole.

 

Plus, the Red Sox haven't done f*** all this off season to improve have they?

 

Rays lost Glasnow and Franco..., I mean I'm sure they'll be good for 90 wins somehow, but probably not as good as last season.

[saskjayfan]

The problem with this is that last year we had a window that I do not believe we will have this year. You are looking at the Blue Jays in a vacuum and don't appear to be considering that there is a high probability the Yankees are better, Boston is better, The Orioles are even better, and other AL teams are all better and fighting for the WC spots. I even believe Detroit will be making a WC run this year. s***, I didn't even mention the Rays whom are always good.

 

Making just a slight improvement on last years team based on bounce back years, and a season where we had outstanding 1-4 SP health, is not a model for a high probability of success IMO.

 

I mean it's the exact same team that ended last year except IKF for Chapman and some reliever will replace hicks. Pedersen will replace Belt. Yes, I 2,3 or even all 4 of Vlad, Kirk, Manoah and Springer to bounce back, but someone will falter. One of the big 4 starters from last year will have a lessor year, or someone will get hurt. KK will have a hard time repeating his numbers offensively. Players have up and down years. Will the bullpen be as good next year? We'll be a good team, but we could have risked something to be a great team. We are playing it safe.

[Spanky99]

Not that I can see. Maybe I'm on his ignore list as he hasn't responded to a few of my questions. I can fly off the handle a bit, but I don't think I'm ignore list material. Maybe I'm wrong. That's certainly not what I was trying to imply.

 

No, I doubt that.

[Spanky99]

You guys are talking like the offseason is over... Pffttt...

[saskjayfan]

You guys are talking like the offseason is over... Pffttt...

 

We're just over a month from spring training. We will get a DH and possibly a swing man or a reliever. That's pretty much it. I don't see a major trade shaking up the roster incoming. I see a slim outside shot of Bellinger incoming which would allow us to rotate the DH spot. That's only if his market drops significantly in price.

[Jimcanuck]

We're just over a month from spring training. We will get a DH and possibly a swing man or a reliever. That's pretty much it. I don't see a major trade shaking up the roster incoming. I see a slim outside shot of Bellinger incoming which would allow us to rotate the DH spot. That's only if his market drops significantly in price.

You have a crystal ball?

[saskjayfan]

You have a crystal ball?

 

Just a magic 8 ball, but I do listen to interviews and commentary by the GM..lol

[BigCecil]

Just a magic 8 ball, but I do listen to interviews and commentary by the GM..lol

 

I wouldn’t be surprised if between now and ST if we signed Joc and stuck OR if they pulled a monster impact deal none of us saw coming.

[Brownie19]

I wouldn’t be surprised if between now and ST if we signed Joc and stuck OR if they pulled a monster impact deal none of us saw coming.

 

same.

[Laika]

You have a crystal ball?

 

Yeah can just read between the lines. For example, the tone of Atkins recent interview gives this away. Also Atkins has started paying the message board shills like myself to set expectations lower.

[Brownie19]

Ah. I guess you covered both angles talking from both sides of the mouth, carry on.

 

Go play in traffic. Creep.