General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2023)

[Laika]

I agree that the interest is probably genuine

 

Some other team will simply have more money to offer though

 

If Toronto offered $600M, one of New York teams or the Dodgers would match or top it.

[L54]

Yes Toronto is clearly interested and can handle the financial commitment

 

But it takes two to tango

 

So many factors up against them that they would have to blow him out of the water

 

But every year we hear about how the Jays are “in” on the big boys lol

[Krylian]

I agree that the interest is probably genuine

 

Some other team will simply have more money to offer though

 

If Toronto offered $600M, one of New York teams or the Dodgers would match or top it.

 

And that's the thing...Toronto is just more risk averse than some of the other owners. They won't go over the top like some of the big cats out there. And that's probably a good thing if you look at it logically...but Ohtani is an over the top kind of talent and signing and that's what it will take. Which is why I don't see an avenue where he gets here.

[Sorrow]

I agree that the interest is probably genuine

 

Some other team will simply have more money to offer though

 

If Toronto offered $600M, one of New York teams or the Dodgers would match or top it.

 

Do the Mets or Yankees look like better teams than Toronto for the next few seasons? I think the Dodgers are the likely destination but Toronto is competitive, has a great rotation while he recovers and he slots in in 2025 and beyond and we have a good core of position players. The Mets are weird and the Yankees look questionable.

[Krylian]

Do the Mets or Yankees look like better teams than Toronto for the next few seasons? I think the Dodgers are the likely destination but Toronto is competitive, has a great rotation while he recovers and he slots in in 2025 and beyond and we have a good core of position players. The Mets are weird and the Yankees look questionable.

 

A team that's willing to spend through the nose is always one off season away from becoming a WS contender. And the fact that (if they want) they'll outbid almost anyone is attractive if you're the one that they will outbid anyone for.

[Laika]

Do the Mets or Yankees look like better teams than Toronto for the next few seasons? I think the Dodgers are the likely destination but Toronto is competitive, has a great rotation while he recovers and he slots in in 2025 and beyond and we have a good core of position players. The Mets are weird and the Yankees look questionable.

 

Agree with your assessment

 

The Yankees did not exactly position themselves to be the Ohtani favourites since they are kind of bogged down with long/massive contracts already.

The Mets, who f***ing knows. All their new owner spending flopped horribly so they might be gunshy.

 

The Dodgers have very clearly been maintaining roster and payroll flexibility for a year+ so they can sign this guy. They have to be like, 70% favourites.

 

So you have the Dodgers up top and then a glut of teams including Toronto that could swoop in and overpay him to steal him from LA. That would include NYM, NYY, TOR, SFG, HOU, SEA, BOS, TEX. I mean, really anybody. Some of the smaller market teams could even make a case to increase payroll and extend for him. Baltimore, lmao. Imagine. They could do it. Baltimore.

[Eat My Shatkins]

Man it'd be nice to get a win like Ohtani for once.

 

I still think he goes to the Dodgers.

[Sorrow]

Agree with your assessment

 

The Yankees did not exactly position themselves to be the Ohtani favourites since they are kind of bogged down with long/massive contracts already.

The Mets, who f***ing knows. All their new owner spending flopped horribly so they might be gunshy.

 

The Dodgers have very clearly been maintaining roster and payroll flexibility for a year+ so they can sign this guy. They have to be like, 70% favourites.

 

So you have the Dodgers up top and then a glut of teams including Toronto that could swoop in and overpay him to steal him from LA. That would include NYM, NYY, TOR, SFG, HOU, SEA, BOS, TEX. I mean, really anybody. Some of the smaller market teams could even make a case to increase payroll and extend for him. Baltimore, lmao. Imagine. They could do it. Baltimore.

 

I think the Dodgers sign him, how they've cut and maintained payroll makes sense, they're a development factory and are always in contention. I think the teams likely in on his are accurate but I don't know how attractive the Yankess and Mets are for a player who wants to win now. I think the top contenders behind the Dodgers are in order the Giants, Toronto, Boston, Texas and Houston.

[TheHurl]

If Ohtani talks to the Jays it is a win

[Dick_Pole]

FWIW Fanduel has the Jays as the 7th most likely destination (and most likely of the AL East teams) for Ohtani at +1300. That's up from 9th a couple of weeks ago. I guess that translates to something like 5% chance if you consider the house cut. Dodgers are +250, so maybe a 25% chance for them.

 

What's also interesting is at the very bottom are the Braves and Cardinals at +7000. Even lower than the +6000 for the 16 teams you'd expect to not be competitive for his services. I'm guessing that these teams or Ohtani have explicitly stated no interest to be lower than all the small market and non-competitive teams.

[Dick_Pole]

Yes Toronto is clearly interested and can handle the financial commitment

 

But it takes two to tango

 

So many factors up against them that they would have to blow him out of the water

 

But every year we hear about how the Jays are “in” on the big boys lol

 

The average team has a 1/30 chance of getting a certain player or 29/30 of not getting that player. I think the Jays have done a pretty decent job of beating those odds when it comes to acquiring a top free agent they target. The mockery of them always being "in" on someone but failing to acquire them is misplaced.

[Sorrow]

The average team has a 1/30 chance of getting a certain player or 29/30 of not getting that player. I think the Jays have done a pretty decent job of beating those odds when it comes to acquiring a top free agent they target. The mockery of them always being "in" on someone but failing to acquire them is misplaced.

 

There's also been enough noise from people who aren't boob in regards to Seager, Cole, Verlander that I think Atkins has gone hard at some of the top FA and we've just been outbid which is fine.

[Terminator]

There's also been enough noise from people who aren't boob in regards to Seager, Cole, Verlander that I think Atkins has gone hard at some of the top FA and we've just been outbid which is fine.

 

He's also landed several big fish including Gausman, Springer and Ryu.

[burlingtonbandit]

Do the Mets or Yankees look like better teams than Toronto for the next few seasons? I think the Dodgers are the likely destination but Toronto is competitive, has a great rotation while he recovers and he slots in in 2025 and beyond and we have a good core of position players. The Mets are weird and the Yankees look questionable.

 

The Jays don't look very good after 2025 when Bo and Vladdy become free agents. And while the Jays have a few interesting position player prospects they are a bit short on star level impact.

[Dick_Pole]

There's also been enough noise from people who aren't boob in regards to Seager, Cole, Verlander that I think Atkins has gone hard at some of the top FA and we've just been outbid which is fine.

 

It's like people forget that Gausman was a successful signing in these rants of theirs. Then compare his numbers to Cole and Verlander since the signing and know the Jays DID capture a big fish. How many top pitchers does a fan of one out of 30 teams expect to sign? I guess the complaint is that they didn't pay $300 million for him? I don't get it. It's not like there has been a bumper crop of $300 million FA contracts to say with confidence that the Jays are unlikely to hand one out. Nor would I have been all that happy with the team doling one out on the players that have gotten them. The two teams that lead in that metric - Yankees and Padres - both have seen immediate big problems for their franchises and limited to no playoff success. I'm first in line to demean Atkins for what I think are bad moves and/or poor effort. His performance in free agency hasn't shown me either of those traits.

[Terminator]

I wonder if the Jays' best chance to land him would be some sort of crazy short term deal with opt outs.

 

4 years, 300 mil with opt outs after year 2. He could be interested in opting out after year 2 because it would give him a chance to reestablish himself as a pitcher and hit the market again.

 

Or could also go with some sort of 13 year deal and throw in equity via Rogers stock options or something. Hell, give him a board seat lol. Not sure how all that would play out with there being a luxury tax in place.

 

But we definitely are going to need the extra juice to beat out the Dodgers.

[Dick_Pole]

The Jays don't look very good after 2025 when Bo and Vladdy become free agents. And while the Jays have a few interesting position player prospects they are a bit short on star level impact.

 

If Ohtani is using that type of reasoning to make his decision, he will be a free agent for a while. Most teams don't look that good after 2025 commitments run their course. Most teams also don't have nine digits worth of payroll tied up past then either. You could easily flip that around and say the Jays have maximum payroll flexibility, a strong incentive to remain competitive and a proven track record of spending to do so. If Bichette and Guerrero aren't signed here long term, it's 50/50 or better that the Jays don't feel comfortable making those commitments as it is the players not wanting to be here imo. We've transcended past the narrative that the team needs to sign homegrown talent at all costs since the day Vernon Wells was miraculously jettisoned. There's a lot of time between now and spring training 2026 to replenish the farm system with top MLB-level talent. Agreed that for 2024 we shouldn't expect much help from the farm with the possible exception of Tiedemann.

[Terminator]

The Jays don't look very good after 2025 when Bo and Vladdy become free agents. And while the Jays have a few interesting position player prospects they are a bit short on star level impact.

 

I think they'll be fine without those two. They just haven't risen to the 5+ WAR players we had hoped. Instead they are 3-4 WAR players and we can replace guys like that in FA somewhat easily with 6 year 150 mil contracts. We almost got one last year with Brandon Nimmo.

 

Heck, in Vlad's case we might actually get a better player on a lower AAV. He's going to be getting over 25 mil in his final year of arb.

[Dick_Pole]

Stock comp would be an interesting idea. It wouldn't even be classified as a cash commitment by Rogers for accounting purposes. $22 billion US market cap so they could offer $200 million in stock-based comp that gets granted over time and it would be 1% dilution. Then he has an incentive to be a Rogers spokesman because he wants the stock price up lol. It would honestly be a smart move that if the company figures will add just 1% to the market cap, would be essentially "free". There's lots of ways the corporate finance team could spin this, especially if they were Jays fans.

[glory]

The Jays don't look very good after 2025 when Bo and Vladdy become free agents. And while the Jays have a few interesting position player prospects they are a bit short on star level impact.

 

I don’t know about this anymore. A year ago I probably would have agreed with you, but Vlad other than 2021 has been completely replaceable as a talent and Bichette while very good has a very risky long term profile (low BBs, getting slower, etc). I think the Jays could adequately replace those two and still be a reasonably competitive team depending on what other moves they make and/or who pans out internally. Would be a different story if they were 5 WAR players like we expected/hoped. That’s not the case.

[Brownie19]

I don’t know about this anymore. A year ago I probably would have agreed with you, but Vlad other than 2021 has been completely replaceable as a talent and Bichette while very good has a very risky long term profile (low BBs, getting slower, etc). I think the Jays could adequately replace those two and still be a reasonably competitive team depending on what other moves they make and/or who pans out internally. Would be a different story if they were 5 WAR players like we expected/hoped. That’s not the case.

 

I mean - Bo is a 4.5-5 WAR player right now...

[burlingtonbandit]

I guess I should have clarified in I didn't mean it to all be about Bo/Vlad, more so after 2025 when they will be FA (FWIW I think they are better off letting them go to FA than singing them for a market value contracts). The best players/core right now (Gauseman, Springer, Bassit) will be old/declined by then.

 

Of course Kirk, Varsho and Schneider could emerge this season looking like cornerstone pieces and a couple other prospects take big steps but if I'm Ohtani and comparing the Blue Jays outlook to the Dodgers, Orioles, Braves etc.. then they aren't among the top. So it looks like the Jays would have to overpay and from what I've seen this Jays FO doesn't look like the type to overpay based on their evaluations.

[Spanky99]

I mean - Bo is a 4.5-5 WAR player right now...

 

Right?

[Terminator]

So under the old CBA the following applied:

 

The uniform player's contract stipulates that the player "represents that he does not, directly or indirectly, own stock or have any financial interest in the ownership or earnings of any Major League Club" except under an agreement approved by the commissioner that provides for the immediate sale of that holding should the manager or player move to another club. MLB rules further stipulate that a manager or player who owns a stake in their club shall be ineligible to work for any other club while the commissioner believes that stake is directly or indirectly held by that individual.

 

That was the old CBA but I think it's been this way forever so I assume it applies now too. But if Ohtani signed a 13 year deal with a no-trade clause then perhaps he could get the commissioner to agree? The other owners would probably cry foul...

[Laika]

I wonder if there is a way around it. Ohtani would have Rogers stock, not Blue Jays shares. Yeah that's indirect ownership and indirect financial interest in the earnings but they could give him some type of Special Shares that don't get dividends or whatever. And escrow them until he is retired - vested special shares.

[Terminator]

I wonder if there is a way around it. Ohtani would have Rogers stock, not Blue Jays shares. Yeah that's indirect ownership and indirect financial interest in the earnings but they could give him some type of Special Shares that don't get dividends or whatever. And escrow them until he is retired - vested special shares.

 

Yeah there's got to be some way. Seems like the commissioner has the ultimate power anyway so if they tweak it enough perhaps they could find a way for Manfred to allow it just this one time for a once in a century player.

 

But he's just a stooge for the owners who I'm sure will be up in arms over it.

[L54]

The average team has a 1/30 chance of getting a certain player or 29/30 of not getting that player. I think the Jays have done a pretty decent job of beating those odds when it comes to acquiring a top free agent they target. The mockery of them always being "in" on someone but failing to acquire them is misplaced.

 

No they don’t and I know you understand why. That’s like saying the Royals have a 50% chance of beating the Braves on a given day because they either win or they don’t

 

It’s not a mockery it’s just being objective. The Jays have gotten players when they pay them the most money. So if they want to land Ohtani they will have to pay him 600M or whatever. It will be a shock if they 4x their largest investment ever on one player

[Brownie19]

I guess I should have clarified in I didn't mean it to all be about Bo/Vlad, more so after 2025 when they will be FA (FWIW I think they are better off letting them go to FA than singing them for a market value contracts). The best players/core right now (Gauseman, Springer, Bassit) will be old/declined by then.

 

Of course Kirk, Varsho and Schneider could emerge this season looking like cornerstone pieces and a couple other prospects take big steps but if I'm Ohtani and comparing the Blue Jays outlook to the Dodgers, Orioles, Braves etc.. then they aren't among the top. So it looks like the Jays would have to overpay and from what I've seen this Jays FO doesn't look like the type to overpay based on their evaluations.

 

Betts and Freeman found the fountain of youth?

 

The reality is it's difficult to look at a team in the 2023 offseason and project where they will be in 2026. You can mitigate the risk by choosing a team that historically has a high payroll, but even those teams can't run beyond the luxury tax forever without it having an impact - and the reality is that Ohtani himself is going to eat up a f***ton of payroll for any team.

 

If Ohtani was looking at the Braves during the 2022 offseason, he may have thought Acuna and Albies are broken and Swanson and Jansen are leaving. s*** changes quickly.

[Brownie19]

No they don’t and I know you understand why. That’s like saying the Royals have a 50% chance of beating the Braves on a given day because they either win or they don’t

 

It’s not a mockery it’s just being objective. The Jays have gotten players when they pay them the most money. So if they want to land Ohtani they will have to pay him 600M or whatever. It will be a shock if they 4x their largest investment ever on one player

 

To be fair, a $600M contract is going to be 2-4 times more than most teams have ever invested in 1 player...

[burlingtonbandit]

Betts and Freeman found the fountain of youth?

 

The reality is it's difficult to look at a team in the 2023 offseason and project where they will be in 2026. You can mitigate the risk by choosing a team that historically has a high payroll, but even those teams can't run beyond the luxury tax forever without it having an impact - and the reality is that Ohtani himself is going to eat up a f***ton of payroll for any team.

 

If Ohtani was looking at the Braves during the 2022 offseason, he may have thought Acuna and Albies are broken and Swanson and Jansen are leaving. s*** changes quickly.

 

Betts is a future HOF who is 31 and singed long term plus Dodgers have a history of winning plus track record of player development. The Blue Jays haven't even won 1 division title under the current regime.