General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2023)

[Stangstag]

I worry that these ridiculously SSS matchup stats are actually why this lineup was made

 

Cringe

 

Who knows. All we know is if it works, the front office looks like geniuses and if it doesn’t, then we complain (justifiably) that the better bats should be playing.

[Stangstag]

Optimal lineup probably looks something like

 

RF-Springer

SS-Bichette

2B-Biggio

DH-Guerrero

1B-Horwitz

LF-Schneider

3B-Chapman

C-Kirk

CF-Varsho/KK

 

Hopefully a W tonight so we don’t have to complain about these dumb decisions in extremely important games

[John_Havok]

I worry that these ridiculously SSS matchup stats are actually why this lineup was made

 

Cringe

 

Lol, no chance though. Not even gruber would use those SSS for anything

[John_Havok]

Optimal lineup probably looks something like

 

RF-Springer

SS-Bichette

2B-Biggio

DH-Guerrero

1B-Horwitz

LF-Schneider

3B-Chapman

C-Kirk

CF-Varsho/KK

 

Hopefully a W tonight so we don’t have to complain about these dumb decisions in extremely important games

 

I feel like it's valid complaint whether they win or lose. Thing is, we don't know the reasoning...could be injury, could be those other guys are starting to get hit with that bug that was going around, any number of things

[Olerud363]

1B-Horwitz

 

Horwitz is like a .300 .410 .450 minor league hitter, and Espinal .280 .340 .390.

 

Since Horwitz doesn't have a lot of MLB data that is the fairest way to compare them. Lifetime MILB stats. The Steamer system also thinks Horwitz is better that is another fair way to compare them.

[Olerud363]

lol. There is also no game thread. This board has been around 10 years I believe (10 year anniversary of leaving the old MLB forum). How often is there no game thread? And I am willing to bet that this has never happened in a contending game.

 

No one has confidence in the team, and are just assuming a Rays sweep and other disasters this week. Though if they win tonight everyone will get excited for tomorrow.

[infinitebook]

lol. There is also no game thread. This board has been around 10 years I believe (10 year anniversary of leaving the old MLB forum). How often is there no game thread? And I am willing to bet that this has never happened in a contending game.

 

No one has confidence in the team, and are just assuming a Rays sweep and other disasters this week. Though if they win tonight everyone will get excited for tomorrow.

 

this wouldn't have happened on prosportsdaily

[Olerud363]

this wouldn't have happened on prosportsdaily

 

Now there are two game threads and I don't know which one to choose. I don't actually usually post during game threads much (and I am sure many are thankful of that).

 

Well maybe I'll watch the second inning to catch the youngster Schneider and Horwitz... wait no... don't even have that option. Just Esponal and Merrifield hitting some 88 mphers right at someone.

[John Balkabella]

Full points to Ross for the Bassitt signing. He’s had a great season.

 

Managed to stay healthy like the rest of the starters, which doesn’t happen very often.

 

I enjoy watching him pitch, and hope he gets a playoff start in the wildcard series, should we make it.

[Masterbather]

Full points to Ross for the Bassitt signing. He’s had a great season.

 

Managed to stay healthy like the rest of the starters, which doesn’t happen very often.

 

I enjoy watching him pitch, and hope he gets a playoff start in the wildcard series, should we make it.

I was a fan of the Bassitt signing, so far it's been pretty good.

[Masterbather]

Speaking of playoff rotations. Given that we don't need a 5-man rotation, I was wondering what to do with Kikuchi. Right now he might actually be the number two starter giving his second half. But of all our starters outside of Gausman, he would be the most lethal weapon in the bullpen. I think his strikeout rate probably goes up in short relief. He could give us something we don't really have, a big strikeout lefty. I would go as far as to say he might end up being more valuable than any of our bullpen arms. Given that the other four starters are all pitching well, are we better off using Kikuchi as a bullpen weapon? Because putting a guy like Ryu in there really doesn't add value to the bullpen.

[John_Havok]

Speaking of playoff rotations. Given that we don't need a 5-man rotation, I was wondering what to do with Kikuchi. Right now he might actually be the number two starter giving his second half. But of all our starters outside of Gausman, he would be the most lethal weapon in the bullpen. I think his strikeout rate probably goes up in short relief. He could give us something we don't really have, a big strikeout lefty. I would go as far as to say he might end up being more valuable than any of our bullpen arms. Given that the other four starters are all pitching well, are we better off using Kikuchi as a bullpen weapon? Because putting a guy like Ryu in there really doesn't add value to the bullpen.

 

I think you roll with your best starters and not worry about which of them might be better in the pen. Ryu could still absolutely have value in a blowout game to come in and eat up innings

[Masterbather]

I think you roll with your best starters and not worry about which of them might be better in the pen. Ryu could still absolutely have value in a blowout game to come in and eat up innings

 

Blowout innings are not real value. That's why you keep a guy like Pearson around. Throw Merrifield in there, Richards too; who cares?

 

The value of starters have gone down in the postseason and the value of relievers have gone up with the way the game is managed now. If John Schneider is going to come and pull Kuch in the 5th inning anyway is it really that much more valuable having him go 4 plus innings over Ryu and then losing his arm for the next 4 days versus the value of letting Ryu start and then having a weapon like Kuch that you can use any game in any situation?

 

If we had another lefty like him in the bullpen I wouldn't consider it but like I said we really don't. Lefty relievers with strike out stuff is extremely valuable in the postseason.

 

I think it's worth some thought at least. It's also something Kuch did just last season whereas the other starters haven't done it in years if at all.

 

Kikuchi struck out 33 batters in 18 innings out of the bullpen last year. With his improved command this year, you might create a dominant lefty reliever out of thin air with this move.

[max silver]

Blowout innings are not real value. That's why you keep a guy like Pearson around. Throw Merrifield in there, Richards too; who cares?

 

The value of starters have gone down in the postseason and the value of relievers have gone up with the way the game is managed now. If John Schneider is going to come and pull Kuch in the 5th inning anyway is it really that much more valuable having him go 4 plus innings over Ryu and then losing his arm for the next 4 days versus the value of letting Ryu start and then having a weapon like Kuch that you can use any game in any situation?

 

If we had another lefty like him in the bullpen I wouldn't consider it but like I said we really don't. Lefty relievers with strike out stuff is extremely valuable in the postseason.

 

I think it's worth some thought at least. It's also something Kuch did just last season whereas the other starters haven't done it in years if at all.

 

Kikuchi struck out 33 batters in 18 innings out of the bullpen last year. With his improved command this year, you might create a dominant lefty reliever out of thin air with this move.

 

Kikuchi has been the team's second best starter for basically the last 4 months and his numbers during this period are really comparable to what Gausman has provided. I tend to think that he's earned the right to start a post season game personally.

[L54]

I wouldn’t mess around with Kikuchi and just leave him in the rotation. Maybe the WC series you have him in your back pocket but in a 5 or 7 game series he’s getting at least one start for me

[Omar]

Kikuchi has been the team's second best starter for basically the last 4 months and his numbers during this period are really comparable to what Gausman has provided. I tend to think that he's earned the right to start a post season game personally.

 

I generally agree with this. Bassitt seems to give up untimely home runs, or so it seems to me that he gives up home runs putting us behind. Kuchi suffers the same fate. Personally I would start Berrios before either of the other two.

 

Home runs given up 2023 thus far:

Bassitt. 28

Kikuchi 26

Berrios 24

Gausman 19

Edited September 23, 2023 by Omar

[jaysblue]

These are the types of discussions I like seeing in September on this board before the Postseason.

 

Kikuchi has definitely earned starts in the Postseason if the Jays make it on to the DS and CS. Possibly the WC round as well.

 

Gausman hasn't been as sharp as late but thew two really great games in his last three on 9/9 against the Royals and 9/20 against the Yankees. Hope he finishes strong and you have to hand him the ball for Game 1.

 

Berrios should be ahead of Bassitt and Kikuchi still IMO. Ryu likely is left off the WC and DS/CS rosters unless the Jays want someone to eat innings in a blowout.

 

If the WC goes to Game 3, who would you go with - Bassitt or Kikuchi? I don't really have an answer. Likely will be determined based on the opponent and which arm has faired better against that opposing lineup and has had success in that park.

[bones10]

I kind of like kikiuchi coming out of the pen throwing gas for two or three innings, maybe let bassitt start game 3 but have Kikuchi come out of the pen early to get the game into the late innings, hopefully when we have the lead.

[Terminator]

I kind of like kikiuchi coming out of the pen throwing gas for two or three innings, maybe let bassitt start game 3 but have Kikuchi come out of the pen early to get the game into the late innings, hopefully when we have the lead.

 

That could work too

[Laika]

Love Kikuchi but he's the #4. The team isn't going to give him the ball over Bassitt.

 

They MIGHT have him available in a WC game 3 if Bassitt can't go long.

 

How does the Jays rotation currently line up for the last series? Hopefully they clinch before the last game and can sort of set up the rotation

[Terminator]

 

Romano dialing up the psychosis as the playoffs near

[Spanky99]

Love Kikuchi but he's the #4. The team isn't going to give him the ball over Bassitt.

 

They MIGHT have him available in a WC game 3 if Bassitt can't go long.

 

How does the Jays rotation currently line up for the last series? Hopefully they clinch before the last game and can sort of set up the rotation

https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/probables-grid

[jaysblue]

 

Romano dialing up the psychosis as the playoffs near

 

Gotta love Romano and the guy has been rock solid as a closer! If I had to buy a new Jays jersey, it would be with his name on the back of it.

[Masterbather]

Kikuchi has been the team's second best starter for basically the last 4 months and his numbers during this period are really comparable to what Gausman has provided. I tend to think that he's earned the right to start a post season game personally.

 

That really doesn't matter. It's about whatever makes the team better. Very little downside to putting him in the pen, potentially immense upside.

[Masterbather]

I generally agree with this. Bassitt seems to give up untimely home runs, or so it seems to me that he gives up home runs putting us behind. Kuchi suffers the same fate. Personally I would start Berrios before either of the other two.

 

Home runs given up 2023 thus far:

Bassitt. 28

Kikuchi 26

Berrios 24

Gausman 19

 

If you're going to base it on home run rate, consider that Kikuchi's rate has fallen off a cliff in the last 3 months, 20 in the first 3 months, only six in July through September.

[L54]

Kikuchi needs 14 hours of sleep, I assume he’s extremely routine oriented. Not sure I’d mess with that

[glory]

In a WC series it would be Gausman/Berrios/Bassitt, and in a 5-7 game series, Kikuchi would follow Bassitt. You can certainly make an argument that Kikuchi could be the #3 guy but I don’t think there’s any chance the Jays actually consider that if everyone is healthy.

[Masterbather]

Kikuchi needs 14 hours of sleep, I assume he’s extremely routine oriented. Not sure I’d mess with that

 

He did it without issue last year, he was outstanding, so I'm not buying that as a problem.

 

We have a 5 deep rotation, a clear ace without a clear number two, any one of the other 4 can go two times through the order.

 

Playoffs are so much about your bullpen now, I think some people here still think it's 10 years ago. There's not much to choose between the other four starters, so take the one that could be a lethal weapon in the bullpen and put him there.

 

I think people are underestimating the impact he might have out of the pen. Consider adding an Andrew Miller type lefty to this bullpen, we don't have that and he has similar ability, I'm not even exaggerating. Both his walk and home run rate (lately) have been excellent, and I think he can easily give you 13-15 K's per 9 out of the pen. That's game changing. It's potentially series changing, with almost no cost to your rotation.

[jaysblue]

Imagine Kikuchi after a night out on the town drinking. He probably is a huge write off the next day!

[Krylian]

 

Romano dialing up the psychosis as the playoffs near

 

I prefer my closer to be unhinged.