General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2023)

[jaysblue]

Holy f***. So much stupid in here. Metafour hit the nail on the head.

 

Lmao nice response!

[Spanky99]

[The Cats Ass]

I should have made that statement in my original response because I knew one of you would have responded back with that haha.

 

Yeah obviously even the best teams lose winnable games or series, not just the Blue Jays. They were a frustrating team to watch at times this season given some of the games or series they played. Sure they can't win every game or series. The team definitely could have played better given the talent they have on the roster.

 

Banking wins early though is important to an extent. Look at the Rays for example. They've been awful since the beginning of July yet they are still 69-47 and still only 2.0 GB vs. an extremely hot Orioles team. They're 12-19 since July 1st and that's even with a lot of significant injuries from even before.

 

Jays are 20-13 since July 1st and are still 4.0 GB of Tampa and in the third WC spot. If the Jays were 12-19 instead let's say, they would be 57-57 right now at .500 and out of a WC spot. Just showing you that when you bank wins early, even after how awful Tampa has played, they're still the AL WC leaders and only 2 GB behind the Orioles. A team like the Jays can't afford to go on a cold streak like that at this point in the season or else their Postseason hopes are gone.

 

What's the conversion rate for a banked win to a future win?

[Stangstag]

I should have made that statement in my original response because I knew one of you would have responded back with that haha.

 

Yeah obviously even the best teams lose winnable games or series, not just the Blue Jays. They were a frustrating team to watch at times this season given some of the games or series they played. Sure they can't win every game or series. The team definitely could have played better given the talent they have on the roster.

 

Banking wins early though is important to an extent. Look at the Rays for example. They've been awful since the beginning of July yet they are still 69-47 and still only 2.0 GB vs. an extremely hot Orioles team. They're 12-19 since July 1st and that's even with a lot of significant injuries from even before.

 

Jays are 20-13 since July 1st and are still 4.0 GB of Tampa and in the third WC spot. If the Jays were 12-19 instead let's say, they would be 57-57 right now at .500 and out of a WC spot. Just showing you that when you bank wins early, even after how awful Tampa has played, they're still the AL WC leaders and only 2 GB behind the Orioles. A team like the Jays can't afford to go on a cold streak like that at this point in the season or else their Postseason hopes are gone.

 

So your argument is that Tampa has a better record than the Jays?

 

Did you need to type out 4 paragraphs for that?

[metafour]

I should have made that statement in my original response because I knew one of you would have responded back with that haha.

 

Yeah obviously even the best teams lose winnable games or series, not just the Blue Jays. They were a frustrating team to watch at times this season given some of the games or series they played. Sure they can't win every game or series. The team definitely could have played better given the talent they have on the roster.

 

It's a pointless statement because apart from maybe 2-3 teams in the league (like the Braves), every other team in the league will have had at least one stretch at some point in the season wherein they "underperformed their ability". There are teams currently behind the Jays in the standings who would have just as good a record (or better) if not for a bad stretch earlier in the season, so this logic doesn't only work in one direction. But it's only ever brought up from the perspective that it somehow doesn't apply to the teams behind the Jays as well.

 

Did you guys know that from May 7th to June 8th the Red Sox went 10-18?

 

If they managed to play even just 14-14 over that stretch, they would be sitting at 64-51 right now and one game back of the Jays. They were actually 21-16 on May 7th, and after June 8th they were 31-32.

 

The Jays' season doesn't operate in a vacuum. "Coulda-shoulda" logic applies to everyone, hence it serves little actual value.

[Stangstag]

It's a pointless statement because apart from maybe 2-3 teams in the league (like the Braves), every other team in the league will have had at least one stretch at some point in the season wherein they "underperformed their ability". There are teams currently behind the Jays in the standings who would have just as good a record (or better) if not for a bad stretch earlier in the season, so this logic doesn't only work in one direction. But it's only ever brought up from the perspective that it somehow doesn't apply to the teams behind the Jays as well.

 

Did you guys know that from May 7th to June 8th the Red Sox went 10-18?

 

If they managed to play even just 14-14 over that stretch, they would be sitting at 64-51 right now and one game back of the Jays. They were actually 21-16 on May 7th, and after June 8th they were 31-32.

 

The Jays's season doesn't operate in a vacuum. "Coulda-shoulda" logic applies to everyone, hence it serves little actual value.

 

Straight fire

[glory]

I'll take a random fan over Espinal at this point

 

DeJong has a -0.6 WAR in 8 games. As bad as Espinal is, I’d probably take him over DeJong at this point, though “neither” would be the best answer. Hurry back Bo.

[Terminator]

I read something along the lines that the Jays had 6 All-Stars last year that combined for about 15 WAR. Those same 6 players are on pace for about 3 WAR this year. It's amazing we are even in contention at all at this point.

[L54]

I read something along the lines that the Jays had 6 All-Stars last year that combined for about 15 WAR. Those same 6 players are on pace for about 3 WAR this year. It's amazing we are even in contention at all at this point.

 

Agreed. When you look at how badly some of these guys who were expected to produce have played to still be in wild card spot is actually a testament to how good the team is

[L54]

I wanted to say the same thing as metafour but he beat me to it.

 

Looking in the past right now has no upside. You take each game from now on one at a time and do your best to win each one.

 

You also need to account for the games you get outplayed in and should’ve lost and the consensus is “well we didn’t deserve that one but a win is a win”

[jaysblue]

It's a pointless statement because apart from maybe 2-3 teams in the league (like the Braves), every other team in the league will have had at least one stretch at some point in the season wherein they "underperformed their ability". There are teams currently behind the Jays in the standings who would have just as good a record (or better) if not for a bad stretch earlier in the season, so this logic doesn't only work in one direction. But it's only ever brought up from the perspective that it somehow doesn't apply to the teams behind the Jays as well.

 

Did you guys know that from May 7th to June 8th the Red Sox went 10-18?

 

If they managed to play even just 14-14 over that stretch, they would be sitting at 64-51 right now and one game back of the Jays. They were actually 21-16 on May 7th, and after June 8th they were 31-32.

 

The Jays' season doesn't operate in a vacuum. "Coulda-shoulda" logic applies to everyone, hence it serves little actual value.

 

Lmao you and other homers always apply "Coulda-shoulda" logic to your arguments as well when the Jays struggle. Oh if the Jays were .500 or better against the Orioles and Red Sox, they would have been at this record and sitting how many games ahead.

 

Varsho hitting .316 over his last seven games - his awful start to the season was just a mirage!

[jaysblue]

So your argument is that Tampa has a better record than the Jays?

 

Did you need to type out 4 paragraphs for that?

 

Nope, just saying that you can't always use the excuse "it's still early" (mostly Blue Jays apologists). Those missed opportunities could come back to bite this team at the end of the season if they miss out by a game or two. It did in 2021.

 

I don't understand what is so controversial in saying that.

[BlueBaller]

Straight 91 down the middle and he gets jammed lol

 

Lmao

[jaysblue]

I wanted to say the same thing as metafour but he beat me to it.

 

Looking in the past right now has no upside. You take each game from now on one at a time and do your best to win each one.

 

You also need to account for the games you get outplayed in and should’ve lost and the consensus is “well we didn’t deserve that one but a win is a win”

 

Yeah agreed, I don't want to look at the past anymore. Whether the Jays were 100-0, doesn't matter. What matters is this team plays good baseball moving forward and if they do, they should secure a WC spot and hopefully win a series or two or even more during the Postseason.

[jaysblue]

Agreed. When you look at how badly some of these guys who were expected to produce have played to still be in wild card spot is actually a testament to how good the team is

 

I mean, it's pretty easy to be in Wildcard contention these days given the expanded Postseason format.

 

But yeah this team could be so much better if guys like Vlad, Springer, Manoah, Varsho and Kirk were producing to their expectations. We might even be talking about the division right now given Tampa's struggles. Lets hope the Jays get hot at the right time in September and carry that into the Postseason!

[L54]

Yeah agreed, I don't want to look at the past anymore. Whether the Jays were 100-0, doesn't matter. What matters is this team plays good baseball moving forward and if they do, they should secure a WC spot and hopefully win a series or two or even more during the Postseason.

 

All you have to do is get there. Hopefully you have everyone healthy and in two months the offense is an 8/10 instead of a 6. The pitching and defense is good enough

 

My biggest worry about the post season is hitting against better pitching. Cleveland’s three young guys dominated the Jays and there will be a lot of that vs Houston, Texas, TB and even the Twins

[metafour]

Lmao you and other homers always apply "Coulda-shoulda" logic to your arguments as well when the Jays struggle. Oh if the Jays were .500 or better against the Orioles and Red Sox, they would have been at this record and sitting how many games ahead.

 

Varsho hitting .316 over his last seven games - his awful start to the season was just a mirage!

 

You need to learn to read a bit better.

 

The only reason why I brought up Varsho's hitting over the previous 7-games was to directly respond to the statement that Varsho is a lost-cause for the rest of the reason. You actually have no idea when a player can/will break out of a slump, and when that statement was made he was actually putting together much better at-bats.

 

I wasn't making any claim that him hitting .316 over seven games meant that his season struggles are a mirage. That is just you lying through your teeth. The point I was actually making is very clear and obvious.

[L54]

You need to learn to read a bit better.

 

The only reason why I brought up Varsho's hitting over the previous 7-games was to directly respond to the statement that Varsho is a lost-cause for the rest of the reason. You actually have no idea when a player can/will break out of a slump, and when that statement was made he was actually putting together much better at-bats.

 

I wasn't making any claim that him hitting .316 over seven games meant that his season struggles are a mirage. That is just you lying through your teeth. The point I was actually making is very clear and obvious.

 

All players have week(s) where they have success. Are we even sure Varsho is a good hitter?

[jaysblue]

All you have to do is get there. Hopefully you have everyone healthy and in two months the offense is an 8/10 instead of a 6. The pitching and defense is good enough

 

My biggest worry about the post season is hitting against better pitching. Cleveland’s three young guys dominated the Jays and there will be a lot of that vs Houston, Texas, TB and even the Twins

 

Yeah my concern in the Postseason is the lineup and maybe the back-end of the bullpen since Romano is out and looks like Green will be delayed a bit longer now. But hopefully the Jays can have both ready by October.

 

Pitching wise, I'm confident with Gausman, Berrios, Bassitt in a WC series and one of Kikuchi, Ryu, Manoah as a No. 4 starter in a longer series if needed.

 

Like you said, hope the team can stay mainly healthy until then, play consistently and hope some players in the lineup can improve.

[Brownie19]

Nope, just saying that you can't always use the excuse "it's still early" (mostly Blue Jays apologists). Those missed opportunities could come back to bite this team at the end of the season if they miss out by a game or two. It did in 2021.

 

I don't understand what is so controversial in saying that.

 

I'm concerned you don't even understand the situations where people suggest "it's still early". The most common scenario is early in the season when the Jays lose a few games. Maybe someone in the bullpen blows the game, or a starter lays and egg or the offense is MIA. Some Jays fans are upset that they lost and these events happened and they suggest change is needed. Cut that player, bench him, trade that guy, change the lineup, fire the manager, etc. They often look at SSS results (which are wayyy more evident early in the season as hitting and pitching stats can be skewed early in the year) to defend their positions and argue the team should start making changes right now because every win matters and obviously the players with s***** results so far suck and should be replaced. If the same player goes into a slump in August, those same fans typically don't even notice it.

 

Rational fans understand it's really stupid to make rash/significant changes based on a SSS and that you need to stay the course for a longer period. You don't want to start cutting/losing assets on your 40 man roster that you may need over the course of a 162 game schedule. That's where the "it's still early" argument comes from. I also don't understand how this is so difficult to understand. It literally has nothing to do with the importance of winning games in April/May - obviously everyone wants to get off to a good start and those games do matter, but you don't make wholesale changes if you start the year 7-12.

 

That said - will you sometimes come upon the situation like we have with Manoah where removing the 2022 Cy Young finalist from the rotation after 4 starts would have actually been the right decision? Of course you do - and of course this happens more often with fringe players like Anthony Bass or Cimber and such. But this is very difficult to predict and often if you're talking about a player with a proven track record, the early season slump is often countered with a hot streak as they revert back to the career norm.

 

I hope this helps.

Edited August 10, 2023 by Brownie19

[metafour]

All players have week(s) where they have success. Are we even sure Varsho is a good hitter?

 

He has two seasons of ~100-105 wRC+ hitting. He's been floating around 70-75 wRC+ this season. Go look at his AAA and AA hitting numbers.

 

It's not a massive stretch to see him getting hot and normalizing closer to his career average, which isn't even a huge mountain in the first place (Kirk went from ~80 wRC+ to 100 in like two weeks).

 

The whole point was that it seemed odd to conclude that he was toast for the rest of the season while he was in the middle of noticeably better hitting.

[Terminator]

Do not despair. This Indians series sucked but it was a 5-2 road trip while dealing with numerous injuries.

 

The reinforcements are coming soon (Bo, KK, Romano, Richards and Green).

 

We have 3 off days in the next two weeks. 7 off days over the final 7 weeks of the season. Given that, it's time to dump the 6th starter. We've got a stacked bullpen 1-8 and the 8th bullpen guy is going to be more useful to us than the 6th starter.

 

Ryu has looked serviceable and with the Mariners nipping at our heels it's time to send Manoah to AAA. I'd much rather have that 8th reliever (Jay Jackson or Genesis who have both been very good) than Manoah and the same holds true for the 9th reliever (Francis has looked like a very good long reliever).

 

Rotation:

1. Gausman

2. Berrios

3. Bassit

4. Kikuchi (L)

5. Ryu (L)

Minors- Manoah

 

Bullpen:

CL-Romano

SU- Hicks

SU- Mayza (L)

MR- Garcia

MR- Green

MR- Richards

MR- Jackson

MR- Cabrera (L)

LR/Sept- Francis

Minors- Pearson

 

That's one hell of a pitching staff to close out this season. Combine it with elite defense and some hitting that will SURELY be better with RISP eventually and that team has got to be able to make it in as the 3rd WC.

 

And if it does that could set things up nicely with the Twins in the first round (they suck) and the Rangers (hello old friends) in the 2nd. There's still a legitimate path to the WS here.

Edited August 10, 2023 by Terminator

[Olerud363]

 

That's one hell of a pitching staff to close out this season. Combine it with elite defense and some hitting that will SURELY be better with RISP eventually and that team has got to be able to make it in as the 3rd WC.

 

And if it does that could set things up nicely with the Twins in the first round (they suck) and the Rangers (hello old friends) in the 2nd. There's still a legitimate path to the WS here.

 

Same could be said about Seattle though... Teo and J-Rod and a couple of others could go on a tear and their pitching staff is stacked.

 

Not really disagreeing with you, just that it's kind of a coin flip to get in at this point. Like isn't it a lot worse than last year? Pretty much the same quality of team, except the chaser team is much better.

 

Last year the chaser team was the greatest franchise ever (Baltimore Orioles) taking their first baby steps and only 85 wins were needed for W3. This year likely to be 90. Last year they didn't need to beat Tampa Bay or Seattle, just the baby Orioles who weren't quite ready, this year they will have to beat Seattle (or Tampa Bay or Houston).

[Terminator]

Same could be said about Seattle though... Teo and J-Rod and a couple of others could go on a tear and their pitching staff is stacked.

 

Not really disagreeing with you, just that it's kind of a coin flip to get in at this point. Like isn't it a lot worse than last year? Pretty much the same quality of team, except the chaser team is much better.

 

Last year the chaser team was the greatest franchise ever (Baltimore Orioles) taking their first baby steps and only 85 wins were needed for W3. This year likely to be 90. Last year they didn't need to beat Tampa Bay or Seattle, just the baby Orioles who weren't quite ready, this year they will have to beat Seattle (or Tampa Bay or Houston).

 

Well yeah last year was much easier. We finished as WC1 with a 6 game lead over WC3 and 9 games ahead of the Orioles who were the first team out. But I wasn't comparing the WC race to last year.

[Olerud363]

Well yeah last year was much easier. We finished as WC1 with a 6 game lead over WC3 and 9 games ahead of the Orioles who were the first team out. But I wasn't comparing the WC race to last year.

 

Well actually this time last year they were in just as tough with Baltimore and Minnesota only 1.5 games back, but both faded.

[Stangstag]

Do not despair. This Indians series sucked but it was a 5-2 road trip while dealing with numerous injuries.

 

The reinforcements are coming soon (Bo, KK, Romano, Richards and Green).

 

We have 3 off days in the next two weeks. 7 off days over the final 7 weeks of the season. Given that, it's time to dump the 6th starter. We've got a stacked bullpen 1-8 and the 8th bullpen guy is going to be more useful to us than the 6th starter.

 

Ryu has looked serviceable and with the Mariners nipping at our heels it's time to send Manoah to AAA. I'd much rather have that 8th reliever (Jay Jackson or Genesis who have both been very good) than Manoah and the same holds true for the 9th reliever (Francis has looked like a very good long reliever).

 

Rotation:

1. Gausman

2. Berrios

3. Bassit

4. Kikuchi (L)

5. Ryu (L)

Minors- Manoah

 

Bullpen:

CL-Romano

SU- Hicks

SU- Mayza (L)

MR- Garcia

MR- Green

MR- Richards

MR- Jackson

MR- Cabrera (L)

LR/Sept- Francis

Minors- Pearson

 

That's one hell of a pitching staff to close out this season. Combine it with elite defense and some hitting that will SURELY be better with RISP eventually and that team has got to be able to make it in as the 3rd WC.

 

And if it does that could set things up nicely with the Twins in the first round (they suck) and the Rangers (hello old friends) in the 2nd. There's still a legitimate path to the WS here.

 

Fired me up. Hell yeah

[Stangstag]

Well actually this time last year they were in just as tough with Baltimore and Minnesota only 1.5 games back, but both faded.

 

Yeah the race last year was tight, and it came down to the last week when the Jays pulled ahead for WC1

[Terminator]

Well actually this time last year they were in just as tough with Baltimore and Minnesota only 1.5 games back, but both faded.

 

Ok I see where you are coming from. Yeah right now this thing is looking like a coin flip with the Mariners. Fangraphs likes our odds better than theirs for whatever that is worth.

 

We need to get healthy ASAP. Bo especially.

[jaysthebest]

Do not despair. This Indians series sucked but it was a 5-2 road trip while dealing with numerous injuries.

 

The reinforcements are coming soon (Bo, KK, Romano, Richards and Green).

 

We have 3 off days in the next two weeks. 7 off days over the final 7 weeks of the season. Given that, it's time to dump the 6th starter. We've got a stacked bullpen 1-8 and the 8th bullpen guy is going to be more useful to us than the 6th starter.

 

Ryu has looked serviceable and with the Mariners nipping at our heels it's time to send Manoah to AAA. I'd much rather have that 8th reliever (Jay Jackson or Genesis who have both been very good) than Manoah and the same holds true for the 9th reliever (Francis has looked like a very good long reliever).

 

Rotation:

1. Gausman

2. Berrios

3. Bassit

4. Kikuchi (L)

5. Ryu (L)

Minors- Manoah

 

Bullpen:

CL-Romano

SU- Hicks

SU- Mayza (L)

MR- Garcia

MR- Green

MR- Richards

MR- Jackson

MR- Cabrera (L)

LR/Sept- Francis

Minors- Pearson

 

That's one hell of a pitching staff to close out this season. Combine it with elite defense and some hitting that will SURELY be better with RISP eventually and that team has got to be able to make it in as the 3rd WC.

 

And if it does that could set things up nicely with the Twins in the first round (they suck) and the Rangers (hello old friends) in the 2nd. There's still a legitimate path to the WS here.

 

100% agree with this. The team gotta send Maoah back to minors. I trust our additional bullpen pitcher more than wasting the roster spot for Manoah.

[Masterbather]

So what's with all the Hagen Danner scuttlebutt I'm hearing? Has he been called up and who does he replace?