General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2023)

[Laika]

The season should get really fun now. Every series is like a playoff series. The standings are too competitive to afford more than maybe one mediocre/bad stretch.

 

The division is winnable.

 

Jays are currently 14% chance to win division and 78% to make the playoffs...

[BigCecil]

The season should get really fun now. Every series is like a playoff series. The standings are too competitive to afford more than maybe one mediocre/bad stretch.

 

The division is winnable.

 

Jays are currently 14% chance to win division and 78% to make the playoffs...

 

So much just depends on Vlad being an '21 'ish aircraft carrier and Kirk/Varsho et al coming out of the abyss.

 

The pen and rotation will keep them in most games but the offense needs to steal some W's when they don't.

[Eat My Shatkins]

It's crazy to look at the standings and see the Jays 5.5 games back of the division lead.

 

Just a couple weeks ago they were 11 back and it.looked insurmountable.

[Sammy225]

So much just depends on Vlad being an '21 'ish aircraft carrier and Kirk/Varsho et al coming out of the abyss.

 

The pen and rotation will keep them in most games but the offense needs to steal some W's when they don't.

 

Not to mention were Manoah is in all of this. Even if he comes back to be a 4.00ERA type pitcher it would help a lot.

[BigCecil]

It's crazy to look at the standings and see the Jays 5.5 games back of the division lead.

 

Just a couple weeks ago they were 11 back and it.looked insurmountable.

 

Not dissimilar to last year with Yanks who banked so many W's early, and then fell off, but held on.

[Sammy225]

Not dissimilar to last year with Yanks who banked so many W's early, and then fell off, but held on.

 

Not really though. At this point last year i think Tampa was 13 games back and the Jays were 14 games back this seems a little more doable. And i do feel that we can catch for sure the O's i just have zero confidence that there pitching can keep them in it all year. Their hitting is going to have to win them a lot of games.

[Jonn]

The season should get really fun now. Every series is like a playoff series. The standings are too competitive to afford more than maybe one mediocre/bad stretch.

 

The division is winnable.

 

Jays are currently 14% chance to win division and 78% to make the playoffs...

 

Would love to see them potentially take the division if Tampa keeps slipping.

 

I don’t consider the playoffs started until in the ALDS. The Wild Card is more of an extension of the Regular Season for me.

[The Cats Ass]

I wonder what the Jays do when/if Ryu comes back. There are a lot of ifs, like if Manoah is somewhat fixed, and if everyone is healthy. Do they go with a 6 man rotation? Or move Kikuchi to the bullpen and use him as a shutdown RP? He had a ridiculous K% out of the BP last year.

[Laika]

I wonder what the Jays do when/if Ryu comes back. There are a lot of ifs, like if Manoah is somewhat fixed, and if everyone is healthy. Do they go with a 6 man rotation? Or move Kikuchi to the bullpen and use him as a shutdown RP? He had a ridiculous K% out of the BP last year.

 

Pairing Manoah with Ryu or Kikuchi in a piggy-back might be effective.

You get to switch sides and looks on the other team after 3 or 4 innings...

 

From a RHP with no idea where anything is going to a LHP throwing 87 with pinpoint command.

 

Or from a LHP with no idea where anything is going but good stuff, to a RHP with no idea where anything is going and mediocre stuff.

[Masterbather]

Berrios is a 4/5 ???

 

He's a 3.

[Omar]

I've been thinking this, and about how I'm going to try and enjoy it lol.

 

O's and TB "its early" banked Ws loom large. I don't expect TB to crater same as Yanks in '22 bent but didnt break.

 

Its going to be crazy WC ride of highs and lows for a 4/5 teams. One really bad or really good 10 game stretch could be the diff its so tight.

 

Yeah I think if we do good against the softer teams in August then maybe we can get by with playing .500 ball against our division rivals down the stretch. It will likely be a meat grinder to finish the season but I’m expecting the Jays to finish second in the East.

 

The scoreboard watching should be next level the last couple of weeks in the season.

 

Too bad we can’t get the scoreboard ticker back on this message board. Or can we ((Hurl)?

[Terminator]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2023-trade-value-nos-31-40/

 

Fangraphs' annual Top 50 trade value list is out. Kirk is #39 and Vlad is #35.

[Omar]

I never said this was a bad team, I said it was maybe a playoff team because I knew that the competition would be tougher this year, and definitely not a world series winning team. Some teams have had poor health, that's the only thing that gives us a chance. That doesn't make us a better team that just makes us lucky and them very unlucky.

 

Maybe a playoff team? Come on, this is definitely a playoff team. Definitely not a World Series team? Well if winning the WS is your standard of success then 29 teams will be failures this year. If the Jays win the ALCS I think that would be a huge success. Getting into the World Series anything can happen. Saying we are not good enough to win a WS Championship could be said about any team, so it is really not saying anything at all.

[Omar]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2023-trade-value-nos-31-40/

 

Fangraphs' annual Top 50 trade value list is out. Kirk is #39 and Vlad is #35.

 

Putting Arozarena ahead of Vlad in trade value:confused:

[Captain Adama]

Putting Arozarena ahead of Vlad in trade value:confused:

 

Makes total sense, Arozarena provides positional value and isn't a total butcher on the bases. Whereas Vlad...isn't. Vlad and Arozarena are also similar in offensive value over the past 3 years.

 

Plus he's under control for an extra year.

[Terminator]

Makes total sense, Arozarena provides positional value and isn't a total butcher on the bases. Whereas Vlad...isn't. Vlad and Arozarena are also similar in offensive value over the past 3 years.

 

Plus he's under control for an extra year.

 

Yeah the extra year of control is everything on these lists and Vlad isn't exactly a bargain anymore after getting a 14.5M arb number this year.

[Brownie19]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2023-trade-value-nos-31-40/

 

Fangraphs' annual Top 50 trade value list is out. Kirk is #39 and Vlad is #35.

 

are you sure that isn't last year's version? Or perhaps you're looking at the list of players whos value has dropped the most over the past 12 months? Perhaps Atkins can use this list to trade Kirk for Jordan Walker...

[mphenhef]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2023-trade-value-nos-31-40/

 

Fangraphs' annual Top 50 trade value list is out. Kirk is #39 and Vlad is #35.

 

Call me crazy, but if the Jays and Rays called around and offered Vald and Arozarena to teams for the same return, I have to think 100% of teams are taking Vlad even if they need an outfielder more than a 1B.

[Terminator]

are you sure that isn't last year's version? Or perhaps you're looking at the list of players whos value has dropped the most over the past 12 months? Perhaps Atkins can use this list to trade Kirk for Jordan Walker...

 

Kirk was 27th on last year's list. Walker will probably be ranked somewhere in the Top 30.

 

People forget how good Kirk has been up until this year. His comps were Hall of Famers. Most didn't expect him to be THAT good moving forward but when you are putting up hitting stats like that at that age to go along with good defense (elite framing, good blocking and an average arm) at a premium position you are going to be a damn good player. He's fallen off a cliff this year but surely he'll get it going again soon.

[Terminator]

Call me crazy, but if the Jays and Rays called around and offered Vald and Arozarena to teams for the same return, I have to think 100% of teams are taking Vlad even if they need an outfielder more than a 1B.

 

What makes you say that? Taken straight from the article:

 

"Case in point: compare his ZiPS projections to Guerrero’s. They’re essentially the same, but Arozarena comes with an extra year of team control and his salary will be meaningfully lower."

[Brownie19]

Kirk was 27th on last year's list. Walker will probably be ranked somewhere in the Top 30.

 

People forget how good Kirk has been up until this year. His comps were Hall of Famers. Most didn't expect him to be THAT good moving forward but when you are putting up hitting stats like that at that age to go along with good defense (elite framing, good blocking and an average arm) at a premium position you are going to be a damn good player. He's fallen off a cliff this year but surely he'll get it going again soon.

 

Walker is ranked 43rd...

[Terminator]

Walker is ranked 43rd...

 

My bad I missed him. TBH I don't know a ton about other teams' young prospects/players. I knew Walker was bad defensively but I didn't know his defense was so bad that moving him to DH actually increases his value. That's generationally bad defense to the point that Zips thinks he's about a 1 WAR player moving forward.

 

And the list doesn't evaluate players in that way anyway. "Taking everything about a player into account, which players would garner the highest trade value, from any team, if every team viewed players the same way I do? It’s not the average value that each team would assign each player based on their respective competitive windows; just like real trades, in this hypothetical list, there’s a highest bidder, the team most motivated to acquire someone’s services."

[Brownie19]

My bad I missed him. TBH I don't know a ton about other teams' young prospects/players. I knew Walker was bad defensively but I didn't know his defense was so bad that moving him to DH actually increases his value. That's generationally bad defense to the point that Zips thinks he's about a 1 WAR player moving forward.

 

And the list doesn't evaluate players in that way anyway. "Taking everything about a player into account, which players would garner the highest trade value, from any team, if every team viewed players the same way I do? It’s not the average value that each team would assign each player based on their respective competitive windows; just like real trades, in this hypothetical list, there’s a highest bidder, the team most motivated to acquire someone’s services."

 

I'm told that Walker is a 3rd baseman (something we need) and he's been historically bad playing RF simply because he's playing out of position. I have no idea if that's true or not.

[Omar]

Call me crazy, but if the Jays and Rays called around and offered Vald and Arozarena to teams for the same return, I have to think 100% of teams are taking Vlad even if they need an outfielder more than a 1B.

 

Arozarena is having a career year and is more toolsy but 100% I think they would take Vlad.

[Dick_Pole]

While Terminator brought up the fact that the Jays are facing the bottom 4 teams over a 12 game stretch, he didn't mention that after that, 16 of the final 22 games are at home (including the Royals series). It's like the league is trying to gift the Jays 20 wins in September as if the team doesn't already make a habit of that every September. All the Jays need to do is keep pace with the O's and Rays and be within 5 games until August 27th then really turn on the after burners. Keeping pace shouldn't be the hard because between now and August 27th isn't exactly 1927 Yankees level opponents either.

[John_Havok]

I'm told that Walker is a 3rd baseman (something we need) and he's been historically bad playing RF simply because he's playing out of position. I have no idea if that's true or not.

 

It's true, the Cards moved him from 3b midway through 2022 since Arenado was going to be the only guy playing 3B for the next 5 or 6 years.

 

He has a rocket for an arm, was clocked at 99-100mph recently on throws in from RF so his arm out there isnt the problem, it's mainly his jumps, routes... and everything that isn't his arm.

[Dick_Pole]

For those who say the Jays aren't a World Series contender...looking around the league, what team is definitely better than the Jays? I don't say this just as a homer but honestly no team stands out as dominating the league. It's wide open. There are two teams on pace to win less than 50 games yet on the top end there is maybe one that'll hit 100. That math leaves a ton of teams in the 90 win region with absolutely none of them not having their fair share of weaknesses as well as strengths.

[Krylian]

For those who say the Jays aren't a World Series contender...looking around the league, what team is definitely better than the Jays? I don't say this just as a homer but honestly no team stands out as dominating the league. It's wide open. There are two teams on pace to win less than 50 games yet on the top end there is maybe one that'll hit 100. That math leaves a ton of teams in the 90 win region with absolutely none of them not having their fair share of weaknesses as well as strengths.

 

There's only one team in the ML that scares me. The Jays. Scared that they're going to f*** themselves via incompetence. If they actually play like they can, they can beat anyone. Feels like they get into ruts where they can't get out of their own way though...that's the fear.

[L54]

The only team that is clearly heads above the rest is Atlanta. I don't think anyone in the AL is a heavy favourite as of today.

 

AL Power Rankings

 

Texas

Tampa

Baltimore

 

Toronto

Houston

 

Boston

NYY

Seattle

Minnesota

 

Something like that

[Terminator]

It's true, the Cards moved him from 3b midway through 2022 since Arenado was going to be the only guy playing 3B for the next 5 or 6 years.

 

He has a rocket for an arm, was clocked at 99-100mph recently on throws in from RF so his arm out there isnt the problem, it's mainly his jumps, routes... and everything that isn't his arm.

 

Was he projected to be a good fielder at 3B?