General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2023)

[max silver]

It dawned on me that the Jays are largely being judged as a disappointment based on their record against two teams, the Baltimore Orioles and the Boston Red Sox. The Blue Jays have a very poor divisional record, however most of this is against two teams. They have played the Yankees and Rays closely with records of 3-4 against each of these teams. However against the Red Sox and Orioles they have floundered and only have a record of 1-9.

 

Against non Red Sox/Orioles teams the Blue Jays have a 37-23 record, good for a .617 winning percentage. The team has a robust +49 run differential in these contests as well, vs a run differential of -29 vs the Red Sox and Orioles in 10 games. Against non Oriole teams above .500 the Blue Jays have a 23-18 record, which is a .561 winning percentage. They have beaten up on non Red Sox teams below .500 with a record of 14-5 and gone 16-10 against teams above .500 when playing outside of their division.

 

This is a very good team that for whatever reason has struggled against two teams so far, and dominated as a whole over the rest of their schedule. There are plenty of games remaining against the Red Sox, and I suspect by the end of the season the Blue Jays record against them should work it's way above .500 as long as they play anywhere close to their capabilities.

 

It appears as though the Orioles have played a much easier schedule compared to the Blue Jays this season. They have only played a total of 37 total games against teams with records above .500, vs a total of 46 games against teams above .500 for the Blue Jays. Against non Blue Jays teams above .500 the Orioles have a record of 16-17. When you compare this against the Blue Jays record 23-14 against non Oriole teams above .500 there is every reason to believe the Orioles good record is a bit of a mirage that has largely been built on beating up on weak teams and beating up on the Blue Jays head to head so far. The Orioles have a much harder remaining schedule as well so they have work ahead of them to prove that they are a legit contender. Fangraphs predicts them to experience a serious correction in their record for the rest of the season with a projected .478 winning percentage.

[Laika]

The Red Sox series was a fluke

 

But the shitbirds are living rent free in all of our heads

[Olerud363]

I mean... If you want the Jays to be like the O's or Rays, you can kiss your massive long term contracts goodbye, live off of prospects and prepare to risk suffering for 5-8 year windows to be competitive for a couple of years at a time unless you get a bit lucky, and rinse repeat. You don't get to keep your stars longer than their window of opportunity, which in turn brings in the fans, merch and sales. TB can win every year and they'll still never sell out or have any money. The best player they've probably kept around 8-10 years was Longoria but that's not putting fans in the stands. They had to give up the David Prices, Crawfords, etc. at their peaks. We probably had more Price jerseys purchased here for half a year than they did 5 years.

 

Since 2008 Rays have been better than Jays 13/16 years, and their non-competitive years were only 4 (2014 to 2017).

 

Current Rays cycle is at 6 years and shows no sign of ending any time soon. They are headed for 3/4 division titles and 3rd 100+ win quality team in 4 years.

 

What year do you see the Jays next becoming better than the Rays? I mean they could finish ahead of them some year, but like do you see Jays beating the Rays over a 3 year period any time soon?

[WryNGinger]

Whit batting 2nd tonight is nice to see.

[glory]

This competitive window was based on having two young superstar position players. However, if you remove 2021 (which had 4 months in a minor league complex), Vlad has a career 3.5 WAR in 1757 plate appearances. Granted he gets penalized for being a s***** 3B (2019) and a bad base running 1B, but for the majority of his career he's resembled nothing close to a superstar player. Right now he's tied for 7th on the team in WAR and is 5th in wRC+. That's going to decrease this roster's ceiling significantly. Manoah s***ing the bed hurt a lot, and we can talk about strength of schedule, but ultimately the Jays are going to need Vlad to be a star otherwise it's going to be an uphill battle.

[bluejaysinternNo5]

Our resident fatties are unfortunately underperforming this season. Kirks not bad though.

[Stangstag]

It dawned on me that the Jays are largely being judged as a disappointment based on their record against two teams, the Baltimore Orioles and the Boston Red Sox. The Blue Jays have a very poor divisional record, however most of this is against two teams. They have played the Yankees and Rays closely with records of 3-4 against each of these teams. However against the Red Sox and Orioles they have floundered and only have a record of 1-9.

 

Against non Red Sox/Orioles teams the Blue Jays have a 37-23 record, good for a .617 winning percentage. The team has a robust +49 run differential in these contests as well, vs a run differential of -29 vs the Red Sox and Orioles in 10 games. Against non Oriole teams above .500 the Blue Jays have a 23-18 record, which is a .561 winning percentage. They have beaten up on non Red Sox teams below .500 with a record of 14-5 and gone 16-10 against teams above .500 when playing outside of their division.

 

This is a very good team that for whatever reason has struggled against two teams so far, and dominated as a whole over the rest of their schedule. There are plenty of games remaining against the Red Sox, and I suspect by the end of the season the Blue Jays record against them should work it's way above .500 as long as they play anywhere close to their capabilities.

 

It appears as though the Orioles have played a much easier schedule compared to the Blue Jays this season. They have only played a total of 37 total games against teams with records above .500, vs a total of 46 games against teams above .500 for the Blue Jays. Against non Blue Jays teams above .500 the Orioles have a record of 16-17. When you compare this against the Blue Jays record 23-14 against non Oriole teams above .500 there is every reason to believe the Orioles good record is a bit of a mirage that has largely been built on beating up on weak teams and beating up on the Blue Jays head to head so far. The Orioles have a much harder remaining schedule as well so they have work ahead of them to prove that they are a legit contender. Fangraphs predicts them to experience a serious correction in their record for the rest of the season with a projected .478 winning percentage.

 

Nice post

[jaysblue]

This competitive window was based on having two young superstar position players. However, if you remove 2021 (which had 4 months in a minor league complex), Vlad has a career 3.5 WAR in 1757 plate appearances. Granted he gets penalized for being a s***** 3B (2019) and a bad base running 1B, but for the majority of his career he's resembled nothing close to a superstar player. Right now he's tied for 7th on the team in WAR and is 5th in wRC+. That's going to decrease this roster's ceiling significantly. Manoah s***ing the bed hurt a lot, and we can talk about strength of schedule, but ultimately the Jays are going to need Vlad to be a star otherwise it's going to be an uphill battle.

 

 

You're going to be called out for cherry picking now!

[jaysblue]

It dawned on me that the Jays are largely being judged as a disappointment based on their record against two teams, the Baltimore Orioles and the Boston Red Sox. The Blue Jays have a very poor divisional record, however most of this is against two teams. They have played the Yankees and Rays closely with records of 3-4 against each of these teams. However against the Red Sox and Orioles they have floundered and only have a record of 1-9.

 

Against non Red Sox/Orioles teams the Blue Jays have a 37-23 record, good for a .617 winning percentage. The team has a robust +49 run differential in these contests as well, vs a run differential of -29 vs the Red Sox and Orioles in 10 games. Against non Oriole teams above .500 the Blue Jays have a 23-18 record, which is a .561 winning percentage. They have beaten up on non Red Sox teams below .500 with a record of 14-5 and gone 16-10 against teams above .500 when playing outside of their division.

 

This is a very good team that for whatever reason has struggled against two teams so far, and dominated as a whole over the rest of their schedule. There are plenty of games remaining against the Red Sox, and I suspect by the end of the season the Blue Jays record against them should work it's way above .500 as long as they play anywhere close to their capabilities.

 

It appears as though the Orioles have played a much easier schedule compared to the Blue Jays this season. They have only played a total of 37 total games against teams with records above .500, vs a total of 46 games against teams above .500 for the Blue Jays. Against non Blue Jays teams above .500 the Orioles have a record of 16-17. When you compare this against the Blue Jays record 23-14 against non Oriole teams above .500 there is every reason to believe the Orioles good record is a bit of a mirage that has largely been built on beating up on weak teams and beating up on the Blue Jays head to head so far. The Orioles have a much harder remaining schedule as well so they have work ahead of them to prove that they are a legit contender. Fangraphs predicts them to experience a serious correction in their record for the rest of the season with a projected .478 winning percentage.

 

[connorp]

It dawned on me that the Jays are largely being judged as a disappointment based on their record against two teams, the Baltimore Orioles and the Boston Red Sox. The Blue Jays have a very poor divisional record, however most of this is against two teams. They have played the Yankees and Rays closely with records of 3-4 against each of these teams. However against the Red Sox and Orioles they have floundered and only have a record of 1-9.

 

Against non Red Sox/Orioles teams the Blue Jays have a 37-23 record, good for a .617 winning percentage. The team has a robust +49 run differential in these contests as well, vs a run differential of -29 vs the Red Sox and Orioles in 10 games. Against non Oriole teams above .500 the Blue Jays have a 23-18 record, which is a .561 winning percentage. They have beaten up on non Red Sox teams below .500 with a record of 14-5 and gone 16-10 against teams above .500 when playing outside of their division.

 

This is a very good team that for whatever reason has struggled against two teams so far, and dominated as a whole over the rest of their schedule. There are plenty of games remaining against the Red Sox, and I suspect by the end of the season the Blue Jays record against them should work it's way above .500 as long as they play anywhere close to their capabilities.

 

It appears as though the Orioles have played a much easier schedule compared to the Blue Jays this season. They have only played a total of 37 total games against teams with records above .500, vs a total of 46 games against teams above .500 for the Blue Jays. Against non Blue Jays teams above .500 the Orioles have a record of 16-17. When you compare this against the Blue Jays record 23-14 against non Oriole teams above .500 there is every reason to believe the Orioles good record is a bit of a mirage that has largely been built on beating up on weak teams and beating up on the Blue Jays head to head so far. The Orioles have a much harder remaining schedule as well so they have work ahead of them to prove that they are a legit contender. Fangraphs predicts them to experience a serious correction in their record for the rest of the season with a projected .478 winning percentage.

 

What is this drivel? Maybe they just happened to play s***** against those teams. You would expect them to play better against the Sox and worse against the Rays. The rest is just a “glass half full wet dream” of dumb

[wamco]

Whit batting 2nd tonight is nice to see.

 

Been wanting that for awhile. And springer moved down

[connorp]

You guys are a loony bunch. What is there to celebrate. That’s great he’s now right on par with being a league average bat after this heater, but he was either god awful or hurt during the first couple months and one of the reasons we lost the division by May again

 

It’s like a yearly thing. He’ll probably stay hot for a bit, get really cold for extended period, then get hot. The hope is maybe he can finish 110 wRC+ but he’s such a roller coaster. All players go hot and cold but his extremes aren’t normal

 

He does seem like a good dude and he’s not easy to dislike, it’s just performance related

 

Edit: wrong thread lol. But you guys are tapping hard on .276 obp. It’s not healthy

[BigCecil]

This competitive window was based on having two young superstar position players. However, if you remove 2021 (which had 4 months in a minor league complex), Vlad has a career 3.5 WAR in 1757 plate appearances. Granted he gets penalized for being a s***** 3B (2019) and a bad base running 1B, but for the majority of his career he's resembled nothing close to a superstar player. Right now he's tied for 7th on the team in WAR and is 5th in wRC+. That's going to decrease this roster's ceiling significantly. Manoah s***ing the bed hurt a lot, and we can talk about strength of schedule, but ultimately the Jays are going to need Vlad to be a star otherwise it's going to be an uphill battle.

 

A .155 ISO and 0.5 WAR from a supposed lynch pin super star run producer half way through an AL East season is no bueno.

 

In 2500 PAs, he has been closer to this, than he has been to 2021.

 

At this point you would have think twice to give him 10/200. Obviously with his hit tool if he figures it out his ceiling is '21 and that deal would be excellent.

[Eat My Shatkins]

I hadn't realized that the Angels were on a bit of a heater and have pulled a half game ahead of the Jays and into a tie with the Yanks for the last wild card spot.

[max silver]

What is this drivel? Maybe they just happened to play s***** against those teams. You would expect them to play better against the Sox and worse against the Rays. The rest is just a “glass half full wet dream” of dumb

 

That's a stretch calling a post dumb given the amount of brain fart level nonsense you post here on a daily basis. Feel free to put some thought into a post for the first time in your existence and I'd be happy to debate the merit or relative lack of merit in my previous post.

 

The fact remains that outside of a small sample of games against the Red Sox, and a few series against the Orioles when the team was in a funk the Blue Jays have performed very well as a whole against the rest of baseball. They have played very well against other top teams, including sweeping the Braves and taking 3 out of 4 games against a very good Astros team based on the strength of their pitching. This team finds itself a half game out of a wildcard spot despite playing one of baseball's hardest schedules up to this point, would be leading 2 divisions in baseball, would be a half game out of second place in 3 divisions, and are a half game back of the 6th best record in MLB.

[gruber92]

I hope we see Horowitz in the starting line up today.

[max silver]

I hope we see Horowitz in the starting line up today.

 

Why? Who should he be starting in front of? Horwitz has been struggling in AAA lately to the tune of a 87 WRC+ over his last 5 weeks or so. I don't know if he should be starting ahead of any of the regulars, or even instead of Biggio who has been clobbering baseballs with surprising regularity lately.

[Spanky99]

Mitch White is the bulk reliever today after Richards, Welp... please be better, need the sticks to wake up, pronto.

[Jays333]

Bowden Francis- Does well in bulk relief

Bluejays FO- Lets option this guy he sucks and punt another game into the sun with Mitch White lol.

 

Honestly hopefully he does better against one of the better lineups in the league than he was in the minors. Not very high hopes for this one.

[TheHurl]

BETTER:

 

Rays, Braves, Dodgers, Astros

 

CLOSE:

 

Orioles, Yankees, Padres, Giants, Mariners, Twins, Brewers, Guardians, Cardinals

 

WORSE:

 

Royals, Athletics, Nationals, Rockies, Tigers, White Sox, Pirates, Red Sox, Angels, Marlins, Phillies, Mets, Diamondbacks, Cubs, Rangers, Reds

 

 

A few of those placements will be controversial but whatever. The general picture doesn't change. Put the Yankees in tier 1 if you want, or the Mets in tier 2. Doesn't change anything.

 

I can't believe you put the Padres as close. The Padres are my fear of the direction this F.O. is going

[TheHurl]

WAR calculations said so

 

Jays were behind the Yankees and virtually tied with the Rays in preseason WAR calculations. Rays and O's are exceeding projections. Jays and Yanks behind. Red Sox probably close

[max silver]

Mitch White is the bulk reliever today after Richards, Welp... please be better, need the sticks to wake up, pronto.

 

If you squint hard enough there are small reasons to be hopeful White doesn't totally crater the team's chances at victory today. He's struck out a bunch of hitters with is sweeper and has solid FIP/xFIP numbers. Don't go checking out his quality of contact metrics however as that quickly shatters the illusion of effectiveness.

[Spanky99]

Mitch White is the bulk reliever today after Richards, Welp... please be better, need the sticks to wake up, pronto.

 

Meh... IDK what to believe anymore.

 

[gruber92]

Meh... IDK what to believe anymore.

 

 

Good, White will get destroyed by this Ranger line up.

[max silver]

Good, White will get destroyed by this Ranger line up.

 

Why is it good if White gets lit up by the Rangers? I'm having a hard time seeing literally anything that would be good about that particular development.

[max silver]

Meh... IDK what to believe anymore.

 

 

Using White feels like it should be reserved for a break glass in case of emergency type of situation. Personally I'd like to see Richards followed up by Pearson depending on where the Rangers are in the order after Richards is finished for the day. This would be a perfect opportunity to try to push Pearson a little further than the maximum 2 inning stints he's been used for so far.

[John_Havok]

Using White feels like it should be reserved for a break glass in case of emergency type of situation. Personally I'd like to see Richards followed up by Pearson depending on where the Rangers are in the order after Richards is finished for the day. This would be a perfect opportunity to try to push Pearson a little further than the maximum 2 inning stints he's been used for so far.

 

Yeah, best case Richards shoves and goes 4, Pearson shoves and gets through 3. I’m not truly holding my breath on that, it’s more likely we get Richards for 2-3, Pearson for 2, then Francis for 2-3.

 

Worst case, Richards gets bombed and they put up the White flag early to soak as much damage as possible before going to Francis

[gruber92]

Why is it good if White gets lit up by the Rangers? I'm having a hard time seeing literally anything that would be good about that particular development.

 

It's good that White doesn't see this Ranger line up.

[max silver]

It's good that White doesn't see this Ranger line up.

 

Ah gotcha, I misread your post to say that it would be good for White to be bombed by the Rangers lineup based on the assumption he was firmly in the plans to be used today.

[max silver]

Yeah, best case Richards shoves and goes 4, Pearson shoves and gets through 3. I’m not truly holding my breath on that, it’s more likely we get Richards for 2-3, Pearson for 2, then Francis for 2-3.

 

Worst case, Richards gets bombed and they put up the White flag early to soak as much damage as possible before going to Francis

 

Yeah White is likely the mop up guy today if he's used at all. I like the raw stuff that Francis his displayed so far but he's been hit awfully hard so far as well. Limiting him to the bottom of the order would be preferable if at all possible.