General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2023)

[BTS]

You jelly. They have a bunch of potential impact bats knocking on the door. Toronto is limping along with a complete empty chamber for a farm. They have one of their best SP coming back from injury and Grayson is a long ways from being a bust.

 

It doesn’t appear they need to make any big FA splashes. Maybe hit on some contributors

 

They absolutely have a great collection of young talent. But the real test of the org will be how they transition to contender and supplement it. We've seen the Braves turn a great collection of young talent into a long-term powerhouse with at least one WS title. Often teams botch this situation. We'll see what the Orioles are able to do.

[BTS]

People are acting like they are not already 17 games over .500. They are on pace to win over 100 and they just have to play 1 game over .500 the rest of the way to win 90. There are several things little and big that indicating a great organization.

 

1. The bullpen - this is the quickest part of a team to build, it may take years to know how their young players will turn out for sure, but we know they can build a bullpen.

2. Everybody in the minor leagues has a .420 on base percentage (not everybody, but you could literally find 8 or 9 .400 plus on base guys in their top 20 prospects), indicating a good old fashioned 'money ball' 2000 Oakland As style minor league development system, get on base!.

3. The park - it's ridiculous, but they designed a freak park that is going to give them a not insignificant advantage over the next decade, stifling opponents right handed bats, while their left handed .420 on base guys get to shoot at the short porch in right.

4. Hitting Covid right - everybody is like '5 losing years in a row'. Maybe they just held back and tanked a couple of more years knowing there were no fans anyway.

 

They are collecting little advantages all over the place and appear to do a lot of things well. They haven't developed an ace starting pitcher yet, and early returns on their 2 really good pitching prospects are disappointing, but otherwise they've got a serviceable starting rotation out of scraps.

 

What happens if they start putting a little money into it?

 

People were saying similar things about the 2021 Giants under Zaidi and the Thad Levine Twins back in 2019/2020.

[BTS]

Baltimore's 2022 offseason was pretty embarrassing: their help for the great young core was spending 23M on Kyle Gibson, Adam Frazier, and James McCann.

[TheHurl]

People were saying similar things about the 2021 Giants under Zaidi and the Thad Levine Twins back in 2019/2020.

 

2019 Padres. I can't see the O's going full Preller, but I can see them making some bulk spect trades to still be the 3rd best team in the division.

[Masterbather]

In the last couple of days Fangraphs is now projecting the Orioles finish ahead of the Jays. Jays are projected to outplay them the rest of the year but not make up the 5 game lead.

 

And this doesn't take into account that the Orioles are playing Gunnar Henderson at short now, which will lead to them replacing their worst hitter Mateo with Jordan Westburg, one of the minor league homerun leaders.

 

And they'll likely replace their other worst hitter, who is a terrible fit for the park with Cowser, by either putting him at first, or the outfield.

 

Then probably trade Mountcastle for a prospect.

 

Unless you think minor league numbers are meaningless the Orioles are only getting better from here. And they have to prospects to get a good starter with their 8-15 prospects and not touch their A prospects.

 

My concern for the Orioles is who they could trade for.

[Laika]

Toronto needs to start putting the foot down

 

June 18/19 is what I had circled as the potential turning point, that's when the schedule gets easier

[Stangstag]

You jelly. They have a bunch of potential impact bats knocking on the door. Toronto is limping along with a complete empty chamber for a farm. They have one of their best SP coming back from injury and Grayson is a long ways from being a bust.

 

It doesn’t appear they need to make any big FA splashes. Maybe hit on some contributors

 

Keyword is “potentially”. Jays also had a lot of “potentially” impactful bats that did not pan out. Pompey, Alford, Jansen somewhat, etc im sure im forgetting others

[goldbug103]

Keyword is “potentially”. Jays also had a lot of “potentially” impactful bats that did not pan out. Pompey, Alford, Jansen somewhat, etc im sure im forgetting others

 

Guerrero J

[Jonn]

Jays still finish ahead of the Os this year

 

I honestly disagree. I don’t think we have even seen the best from the Orioles this season. And they are in tremendous position to add to the roster.

[connorp]

Keyword is “potentially”. Jays also had a lot of “potentially” impactful bats that did not pan out. Pompey, Alford, Jansen somewhat, etc im sure im forgetting others

 

Most had fizzled at the higher levels though, right?

O’s guys are clobbering AAA

[Terminator]

Toronto needs to start putting the foot down

 

June 18/19 is what I had circled as the potential turning point, that's when the schedule gets easier

 

100%. We’ve got to get through this week with some Ws and then it’s time to start throwing up some streaks.

[Terminator]

I honestly disagree. I don’t think we have even seen the best from the Orioles this season. And they are in tremendous position to add to the roster.

 

Wow better than .631 ball?

[jaysblue]

He's been doing the fence sitting for years, old hat. Can't even answer simple questions like who?

 

lol c'mon man! You read this board every single day so you know exactly who the big homers are. Do I have to list every single poster?

 

In any case, I'm not referencing you. I know you're a big Jays supporter but at least your rational.

[jaysblue]

Jays still finish ahead of the Os this year

 

The way the Jays have been playing, I don't think so.

 

I hope they do, but they need to improve and play better fundamental baseball. Don't let the homerism in you cloud your judgment.

[jaysblue]

I'm still not impressed with the Orioles FO. They inherited Mullins, Santander and Hays, and took Rutschman 1st overall. Credit for drafting and developing Henderson. Starting pitching is bad. Get back to me when they prove they're able to supplement the cheap young talent with impact major league support, and do it in a way that allows them to contend in more than a short window. It's easy to collect talent when you're terrible for half a decade. The hard part starts now.

 

Yeah we'll see how the FO does to compliment the young talent they have. That will be the challenge. Same as with the Jays FO taking them from a 90 win to a 100 win team, which they have failed to do thus far. But to say your not impressed with their drafting and targeting certain players etc., is pretty hypocritical. The Rays were terrible for how long and pretty much collected talent through the draft and inherited some players as well along the way.

 

As for the Orioles starting pitching, I agree it's not the strongest and on paper looks meh. But Wells, Gibson and Bradish haven't been all that bad. Kremer has held his own as well. It's a bunch of No. 3/4 starters pretty much. They definitely lack having an ace like Gausman that's for sure. Their bullpen however has been pretty darn good.

[jaysblue]

They absolutely have a great collection of young talent. But the real test of the org will be how they transition to contender and supplement it. We've seen the Braves turn a great collection of young talent into a long-term powerhouse with at least one WS title. Often teams botch this situation. We'll see what the Orioles are able to do.

 

Agreed 100%. The real test will be how the FO compliments their young talent.

 

How have the Jays done in that respect though? Would you say they have botched the situation?

[Jonn]

Wow better than .631 ball?

 

Not necessarily record wise. I just think they are transforming roster with a lot of young players that are getting better and I think they add to the rotation that makes them more of formidable threat for post season ball.

[jaysblue]

2019 Padres. I can't see the O's going full Preller, but I can see them making some bulk spect trades to still be the 3rd best team in the division.

 

So Jays will be the fourth best team in the division?

[jaysblue]

Toronto needs to start putting the foot down

 

June 18/19 is what I had circled as the potential turning point, that's when the schedule gets easier

 

10-12 game winning streak like I said and trade for Ricardo Rincon.

[jaysblue]

Toronto needs to start putting the foot down

 

June 18/19 is what I had circled as the potential turning point, that's when the schedule gets easier

 

10-12 game winning streak like I said and trade for Ricardo Rincon.

[jaysblue]

Keyword is “potentially”. Jays also had a lot of “potentially” impactful bats that did not pan out. Pompey, Alford, Jansen somewhat, etc im sure im forgetting others

 

Rutchman and Henderson have been solid thus far and look like they could be studs. Hays and Mullins have been pretty darn good as well. That's 4 of 9 with some more impactful talent waiting in the wings.

 

If the Jays had the Orioles farm system I'm sure you would be salivating over all their prospects and think everyone of them would become impactful bats. But since its the Orioles, meh!

[BTS]

Agreed 100%. The real test will be how the FO compliments their young talent.

 

How have the Jays done in that respect though? Would you say they have botched the situation?

 

I don't think the Jays have done a great job. Almost nothing of any impact has come through the system since Vlad and Bo. Kirk and Manoah are really the only two, and they've taken massive steps back this year. They've basically had to bring in an entire pitching staff from outside the org because they haven't been able to develop anything. And that's been costly, and resulted in a lack of organizational depth. Toronto looks like a team in the middle of a ~5 year competitive window right now than they do a team that's going to stay perpetually competitive.

[Stangstag]

Rutchman and Henderson have been solid thus far and look like they could be studs. Hays and Mullins have been pretty darn good as well. That's 4 of 9 with some more impactful talent waiting in the wings.

 

If the Jays had the Orioles farm system I'm sure you would be salivating over all their prospects and think everyone of them would become impactful bats. But since its the Orioles, meh!

 

No of course we’d be jerking each other off if we had the Os farm. They have some great looking guys coming (and a few already up). Im not an idiot. They look to be SET for the next 4-5 years on the position player front.

 

I just question whether they’ll actually make any significant deadline moves or if they’ll actually spend any money in free agency. Angelos is an asshat.

[Stangstag]

I don't think the Jays have done a great job. Almost nothing of any impact has come through the system since Vlad and Bo. Kirk and Manoah are really the only two, and they've taken massive steps back this year. They've basically had to bring in an entire pitching staff from outside the org because they haven't been able to develop anything. And that's been costly, and resulted in a lack of organizational depth. Toronto looks like a team in the middle of a ~5 year competitive window right now than they do a team that's going to stay perpetually competitive.

 

The “sustainable winner” isn’t looking very sustainable ATM.

[BTS]

The “sustainable winner” isn’t looking very sustainable ATM.

 

it wasn't supposed to happen like this

[JFD]

Negative mofos. Things will turn around once the wannabe baseball nerd is fired and the fatties live up to their elite talent potential. It's just a matter of time. The talent is legit

[BigCecil]

The “sustainable winner” isn’t looking very sustainable ATM.

 

We need to start a thread "Predict the 2026 Jays" lol. Glass half full, empty and mid takes.

 

I'd truly love to see a solid realistic, optimistic case laid out. Yes its a couple years away but:

 

- The farm impact cupboard is relatively bare. Orelvis has a AA 121 wRC+ and has cut his K rate down. Sign of life there.

- The payroll is already high, even with Ryu coming off for '24. Arb year raises will eat into that savings.

- Belt and KK off the books, but have to replaced.

- Chapman is gone for '24.

- Jano not extended and FA for '25 season.

- Whit is gone for '24 as I dont see us picking up that option - Biggio and Espy are not producing what we hoped at 2B.

- Our FA signings aren't getting any younger and the back half of those cost commitments is always more risky. Springer etc.

- I don't think either Bo/Vlad will be extended for anything other than a major over pay. They are going to test the FA market end of '25.

- Manoah- The impact SP they drafted and sort of developed is MLB MIA for an indefinite period. Pearson looks like he may be something finally.

- Ricky having arm issues. He might be impacting. But so much risk with arms they are hard to bank on.

 

A lot can change in a couple years. We are going to need some breaks and found money surprises like Romano.

[max silver]

We need to start a thread "Predict the 2026 Jays" lol. Glass half full, empty and mid takes.

 

I'd truly love to see a solid realistic, optimistic case laid out. Yes its a couple years away but:

 

- The farm impact cupboard is relatively bare. Orelvis has a AA 121 wRC+ and has cut his K rate down. Sign of life there.

- The payroll is already high, even with Ryu coming off for '24. Arb year raises will eat into that savings.

- Belt and KK off the books, but have to replaced.

- Chapman is gone for '24.

- Jano not extended and FA for '25 season.

- Whit is gone for '24 as I dont see us picking up that option - Biggio and Espy are not producing what we hoped at 2B.

- Our FA signings aren't getting any younger and the back half of those cost commitments is always more risky. Springer etc.

- I don't think either Bo/Vlad will be extended for anything other than a major over pay. They are going to test the FA market end of '25.

- Manoah- The impact SP they drafted and sort of developed is MLB MIA for an indefinite period. Pearson looks like he may be something finally.

- Ricky having arm issues. He might be impacting. But so much risk with arms they are hard to bank on.

 

A lot can change in a couple years. We are going to need some breaks and found money surprises like Romano.

 

There are plenty of ways this can all play out. Each of Vlad and Bo may be extended, it's possible (highly unlikely for sure) that Chapman is extended, Jansen very well may be extended, Merrifeld may be re-signed even without his option being picked up, Manoah will likely find his form again, Belt and KK may be re-signed moving forward etc. The sky isn't falling by any means and with the money coming off of the books there will be funds available to replace the talent due to leave if necessary.

[TheHurl]

Negative mofos. Things will turn around once the wannabe baseball nerd is fired and the fatties live up to their elite talent potential. It's just a matter of time. The talent is legit

 

when has firing a GM midseason ever happened, much less turned a season around?

[Brownie19]

We need to start a thread "Predict the 2026 Jays" lol. Glass half full, empty and mid takes.

 

I'd truly love to see a solid realistic, optimistic case laid out. Yes its a couple years away but:

 

- The farm impact cupboard is relatively bare. Orelvis has a AA 121 wRC+ and has cut his K rate down. Sign of life there.

- The payroll is already high, even with Ryu coming off for '24. Arb year raises will eat into that savings.

- Belt and KK off the books, but have to replaced.

- Chapman is gone for '24.

- Jano not extended and FA for '25 season.

- Whit is gone for '24 as I dont see us picking up that option - Biggio and Espy are not producing what we hoped at 2B.

- Our FA signings aren't getting any younger and the back half of those cost commitments is always more risky. Springer etc.

- I don't think either Bo/Vlad will be extended for anything other than a major over pay. They are going to test the FA market end of '25.

- Manoah- The impact SP they drafted and sort of developed is MLB MIA for an indefinite period. Pearson looks like he may be something finally.

- Ricky having arm issues. He might be impacting. But so much risk with arms they are hard to bank on.

 

A lot can change in a couple years. We are going to need some breaks and found money surprises like Romano.

 

This is looking a bit too realistic for my liking. I was really hoping my boys would get to see the Jays win the World Series when they were young (like I did) and that would cement their love for the team/game. That just seems quite unlikely at this time, as it appears we've pissed away the opportunity we had. At least I got them to some playoff games along the way.