General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2023)

[max silver]

The issue with the Game 2 scenario was that there is no analytic in the world that could rationalize it. Mayza got rocked by RHB. Santana was much better against LHP. Gausman had no issues with facing an order for the 3rd time (2.91 ERA/2.65 FIP 3rd time through the order in 2022), was only at 90+ pitches, and had a near 6 WAR regular season. There are good decisions that just don't work out, and then there's whatever the hell that was. Never mind having an 8-1 lead in the 6th and deciding that Tapia was the best guy to bring in rather than a vetrin whose only skill at that point was being great defensively.

 

Schneider and all managers do make decisions based on probability. As mentioned, some times it works, some times it doesn't. There are also times when moves simply do not make sense and are a result of a manager's "gut" gone wrong. I hope the latter was responsible for Game 2's decisions because if it was the Jays analytics, then that's a bigger problem.

 

I recall Schneider's explanation for bringing in Mayza was something along the likes of Santana being less likely to hit a home run from the right side, and Mayza was likely to coax a ground ball out of him to alleviate a lot of the pressure. I'll never understand that decision as nearly every other reliever in the bullpen was far more suited to face Santana from the left side than Mayza was to face him from the right side.

[Jonn]

The issue with the Game 2 scenario was that there is no analytic in the world that could rationalize it. Mayza got rocked by RHB. Santana was much better against LHP. Gausman had no issues with facing an order for the 3rd time (2.91 ERA/2.65 FIP 3rd time through the order in 2022), was only at 90+ pitches, and had a near 6 WAR regular season. There are good decisions that just don't work out, and then there's whatever the hell that was. Never mind having an 8-1 lead in the 6th and deciding that Tapia was the best guy to bring in rather than a vetrin whose only skill at that point was being great defensively.

 

Schneider and all managers do make decisions based on probability. As mentioned, some times it works, some times it doesn't. There are also times when moves simply do not make sense and are a result of a manager's "gut" gone wrong. I hope the latter was responsible for Game 2's decisions because if it was the Jays analytics, then that's a bigger problem.

 

I feel if Schneider rolled with Gausman and it failed he would have got substantially less criticism. He could have just said that's our game we brought him in to make pitches in those situations and that's probably the last we hear about it. Mayza was definitely not the right reliver in that scenario. Nor was Tapia in LF the right defensive change. Nobody here can argue that.

[G-Snarls]

If ego and salaries didn't matter would you would hit KK leadoff right now for a few weeks???

 

Would any manager in baseball do that??? I can't imagine Schneider doing it even though it might help with the scoring right now.

 

Springer .216/.272/.302

Edited May 4, 2023 by G-Snarls

[Stangstag]

I feel if Schneider rolled with Gausman and it failed he would have got substantially less criticism. He could have just said that's our game we brought him in to make pitches in those situations and that's probably the last we hear about it. Mayza was definitely not the right reliver in that scenario. Nor was Tapia in LF the right defensive change. Nobody here can argue that.

 

Pulling Gausman was totally justified IMO. He had given up the double earlier in the game to Santana that was inches from being a homer.

 

And the prior inning was super long and he sat on the bench a long time which is why he was rusty to start the inning. And by the time Santana came up I think he had thrown like 20ish pitches in the inning.

 

I just don’t really think the stats supported bringing in a lefty to face Santana, especially when Mayza had been ass against righties most of the year.

[Stangstag]

If ego and salaries didn't matter would you would hit KK leadoff right now for a few weeks???

 

Would any manager in baseball do that??? I can't imagine Schneider doing it even though it might help with the scoring right now.

 

Springer .216/.272/.302

 

If they aren’t gonna try Merrifield or KK leadoff in the games Springer is on the bench, it aint gonna happen. Plus I think that puts added pressure on KK when he seems completely set on being “the best 9th hitter in baseball”. He’s in a groove and i’d leave him where he is.

 

And its hard to move a vet like Springer out of his comfort spot after a month of bad hitting. It kinda signals panic and lost faith in the player. He hasn’t even looked terrible really, just a lot of bad luck recently. The average could easily be like .275ish now.

[Laika]

Springer has been s*** but I'm not really worried about him. MaxEV and barrel rate are actually better than last year. His timing has been off all season though; his hard hit % is down a lot.

 

If you believe expected stats at all he has been pretty unlucky. His .322 xwOBA is fifth best on the team. Not good by any means but not brutal.

 

xwOBA - wOBA

 

Springer 0.071 (.322 vs .251)

Jansen 0.040

Vlad 0.030

Bichette 0.020

Chapman 0.010

Kirk 0.002

Varsho 0.000

Whit -0.012

Kiermaier -0.033

[Olerud363]

The issue with the Game 2 scenario was that there is no analytic in the world that could rationalize it.

 

3 batter rule. Analytics probably said, assuming that you had to use Mayza, as one of the relievers to cover those innings that was the spot for him because he faces Santana instead of potentially J-Rod.

 

And in terms of Tapia vs Bradley since there were 2 at bats left the analytics slightly favored Tapia for 2 at bats, then put Bradley in.

 

If the goal was to just minimize the chances of the Mariners scoring 7 more runs Bradley would have been the right decision. If the goal was to minimize the chances of the Mariners scoring 7 more run THAN the Blue Jays score than Tapia, followed by Bradley after Tapia (likely) doesn't have at bats left, was the right decision.

[Olerud363]

3 batter rule. Analytics probably said, assuming that you had to use Mayza, as one of the relievers to cover those innings that was the spot for him because he faces Santana instead of potentially J-Rod.

 

And in terms of Tapia vs Bradley since there were 2 at bats left the analytics slightly favored Tapia for 2 at bats, then put Bradley in.

 

If the goal was to just minimize the chances of the Mariners scoring 7 more runs Bradley would have been the right decision. If the goal was to minimize the chances of the Mariners scoring 7 more run THAN the Blue Jays score than Tapia, followed by Bradley after Tapia (likely) doesn't have at bats left, was the right decision.

 

Like others I'm not really defending Schneider, or maybe I am. I don't know.

 

I think people just have a flawed logic about all this, because it is really easy to see the s***** things that did happen and easy ways to prevent them. Jays had a 99% chance of winning, so the s***** things were all really unlikely.

 

What if Schneider stayed with Gausman for Santana, Santana snuck a ground ball through, then he went to Mayza, there was a blooper and a walk, then Mayza had to face J-Rod, and it was 8-8 just like that. What would people say?

 

That's all really unlikely. Or what if Bradley was put in, but no balls were hit to him, Mariners came back in a different way, but Bradley struck out with a guy on third in a the bottom of the 7th when the Jays just needed contact? Also super-unlikely that such a scenario arises.

 

But the analytics just basically takes in the entire history of baseball, every game played ever, probably runs 1 million billion simulated games in a big AWS server, then they connect the ipad to it and it spits out win expectancies for different moves, and Schneider chooses the best win expectancy (maybe with some wiggle room as a bunch of moves will have similar WE).

 

I'm betting the moves he did make all had similar win expectancies to alternatives. Or do you guys think he made moves that lowered Win Expectancies from like 99% to 95% because they were so bad, and he left the moves that kept the win expectancy as high as possible on the table?

[G-Snarls]

MLB.com article today:

 

Here is a potential future closer for each team - Jim Callis, Sam Dykstra, Jonathan Mayo

 

Blue Jays: Hagen Danner, RHP (No. 22)

Once a catcher who was taken in the second round of the 2017 Draft, Danner transitioned to the mound in 2021 and showed enough promise to earn a 40-man spot the following offseason. A fastball capable of touching the upper-90s, along with an above-average slider and solid curveball, were big reasons why Toronto protected him from the Rule 5 Draft and could make him an absolute weapon out of the bullpen. Injuries have been an issue, including this spring’s right forearm inflammation, but good news there: Danner was added to the Double-A New Hampshire active roster on Tuesday.

 

https://www.mlb.com/news/future-closers-for-each-team-2023?t=mlb-pipeline-coverage

[G-Snarls]

6:10 ET today? What a stupid game time. Why not earlier like every other game today??

[jaysblue]

6:10 ET today? What a stupid game time. Why not earlier like every other game today??

 

MLB scheduling is really stupid.

[BigCecil]

Manaoh 0/22 on whiffs on sliders.

 

After 1st time through - LHH 7/11

 

Just not fooling anyone. Expected regression but this has been a lot worse than I expected so far.

[Laika]

Manaoh 0/22 on whiffs on sliders.

 

After 1st time through - LHH 7/11

 

Just not fooling anyone. Expected regression but this has been a lot worse than I expected so far.

 

OUCH. ouch.

 

he legit f***ing sucks

 

like, he might not be a top ~80 SP

[John_Havok]

OUCH. ouch.

 

he legit f***ing sucks

 

like, he might not be a top ~80 SP

 

 

 

All of his pitches are actually overperforming.... except the slider which is getting destroyed. Still about the same overall whiff rate with it as last season though.

Edited May 4, 2023 by John_Havok

[Carlos Danger]

Who’s doing the GDT and breaking this damn losing streak!???

[Carlos Danger]

Fnnn Bigio in instead of Merrifield and the Predator leading off for the Red Sox….

[bones10]

So we have a mediocre bullpen, below average prospects, 3 of the 5 starters are having issues and the division leader is having a historic start.

 

Kind of hard not to feel a little anxious about this team and immediate future.

[John_Havok]

So we have a mediocre bullpen, below average prospects, 3 of the 5 starters are having issues and the division leader is having a historic start.

 

Kind of hard not to feel a little anxious about this team and immediate future.

 

It does kinda fell like the universe is delivering a big f*** YOU to the Jays doesnt it.

[max silver]

It does kinda fell like the universe is delivering a big f*** YOU to the Jays doesnt it.

 

The icing on the cake of misery is the likely Tiedemann injury.

[TorontonianJD]

So we have a mediocre bullpen, below average prospects, 3 of the 5 starters are having issues and the division leader is having a historic start.

 

Kind of hard not to feel a little anxious about this team and immediate future.

 

This team is worse than last year.

[Dagagad]

I’d like to point out that Terminator was calling out all the idiots who didn’t believe in Atkins vis a vis pitching just before this slump.

 

I’m not saying i totally believe in jinxes or that he should be tarred and feathered or anything but something needs to be done.

[Masterbather]

So we have a mediocre bullpen, below average prospects, 3 of the 5 starters are having issues and the division leader is having a historic start.

 

Kind of hard not to feel a little anxious about this team and immediate future.

 

The mediocre bullpen and inconsistent starting pitching was completely predictable. This team did not improve in a meaningful way in the offseason. I don't know why so many on here were excited about the mediocre offseason we had.

[BigCecil]

So we have a mediocre bullpen, below average prospects, 3 of the 5 starters are having issues and the division leader is having a historic start.

 

Kind of hard not to feel a little anxious about this team and immediate future.

Don’t worry. We are losing Chappy. Lol

[BigCecil]

I’d like to point out that Terminator was calling out all the idiots who didn’t believe in Atkins vis a vis pitching just before this slump.

 

I’m not saying i totally believe in jinxes or that he should be tarred and feathered or anything but something needs to be done.

 

Nope. He should be keel hauled.

[glory]

So we have a mediocre bullpen, below average prospects, 3 of the 5 starters are having issues and the division leader is having a historic start.

 

Kind of hard not to feel a little anxious about this team and immediate future.

 

Agreed. The farm system in particular is not making me very confident for a sustainable run beyond 2023-25, so the Jays really have to take advantage of these next 3 seasons. The fact that the team has over $80m invested in the rotation and we'd still have a hard time feeling confident with whoever would start Game 2 of a playoff series is kinda scary.

 

I still expect the Jays, barring significant injury, to be around where they were the last two seasons (90-95 wins), but the strength of the division is intense.

[jaysblue]

Agreed. The farm system in particular is not making me very confident for a sustainable run beyond 2023-25, so the Jays really have to take advantage of these next 3 seasons. The fact that the team has over $80m invested in the rotation and we'd still have a hard time feeling confident with whoever would start Game 2 of a playoff series is kinda scary.

 

I still expect the Jays, barring significant injury, to be around where they were the last two seasons (90-95 wins), but the strength of the division is intense.

 

Jays should be around 90-95 wins. Probably another Wildcard from the looks of it.

 

After Gausman, there really isn't a legit No. 2 starter. Manoah looks toast. Bassitt is just a No. 3/4 guy. Berrios needs to show more consistency still, but otherwise he's been better than last season. Kikuchi is just a No. 5 guy, that's it. Rotation looks like it could be a problem, especially if they ever lose Gausman to injury. Could turn into a dumpster fire pretty quickly,

 

Bullpen: I've been happy with Pearson so far and hope they work him in more high leverage situations. Romano as closer is fine and Swanson looks like a decent late inning guy. Garcia is a solid middle reliever. Mayza is a solid LHP. Could use another strong lefty or another elite arm. Hope Green can be that guy later on. If the starting rotation pitches well, that will help the bullpen greatly as well.

[Spanky99]

Springer has been s*** but I'm not really worried about him. MaxEV and barrel rate are actually better than last year. His timing has been off all season though; his hard hit % is down a lot.

 

If you believe expected stats at all he has been pretty unlucky. His .322 xwOBA is fifth best on the team. Not good by any means but not brutal.

 

xwOBA - wOBA

 

Springer 0.071 (.322 vs .251)

Jansen 0.040

Vlad 0.030

Bichette 0.020

Chapman 0.010

Kirk 0.002

Varsho 0.000

Whit -0.012

Kiermaier -0.033

 

Yesterday you s*** down his throat and ISO, now you change your tune after looking at it, haha, dumnass!!

[Spanky99]

This team is worse than last year.

 

You're worse everytime you post, ya knob jockey.

[Spanky99]

Don’t worry. We are losing Chappy. Lol

 

Nope. He should be keel hauled.

 

BigC... your sky is falling, bro.

[BigCecil]

BigC... your sky is falling, bro.

 

Being fac-e-tious Spank. But I do thank you for the positive police alert!