General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2023)

[G-Snarls]

Chapman will get smacked with the qualifying offer

 

But he's good enough it might not affect his market much

[jaysblue]

Chapman will get smacked with the qualifying offer

 

But he's good enough it might not affect his market much

 

The market for third basemen next offseason isn't that strong. Machado is easily No. 1, and Chapman is easily the No. 2 option. The rest are washed up vets like Josh Donaldson, Justin Turner, Evan Longoria etc. So Chapman even with the QO attached will get a 4-5 year contract from someone. If he somehow accepts the QO, not a bad thing for the Jays but doubt it.

[jerb]

[wilko]

The market for third basemen next offseason isn't that strong. Machado is easily No. 1, and Chapman is easily the No. 2 option. The rest are washed up vets like Josh Donaldson, Justin Turner, Evan Longoria etc. So Chapman even with the QO attached will get a 4-5 year contract from someone. If he somehow accepts the QO, not a bad thing for the Jays but doubt it.

 

Only way he accepts a QO is if he stinks. I hope he plays well enough to get a 5 year extension from someone else.

[Spanky99]

The market for third basemen next offseason isn't that strong. Machado is easily No. 1, and Chapman is easily the No. 2 option. The rest are washed up vets like Josh Donaldson, Justin Turner, Evan Longoria etc. So Chapman even with the QO attached will get a 4-5 year contract from someone. If he somehow accepts the QO, not a bad thing for the Jays but doubt it.

 

Yeah, logically looking at this, dude's going to get paid, we get a comp pick and all's well. Cause Barger's going to rake.

[Terminator]

Eno Sarris / The Athletic did "starting pitching ranks for 2023, with Stuff+ powered projections"

 

RANK / PLAYER / IP / ERA / K% / STUFF+ / LOCATION+

17 Kevin Gausman 179 3.19 28.1% 110 105

28 Alek Manoah 199 3.63 24.6% 100 99

47 Chris Bassitt 176 3.87 22.1% 98 102

56 Jose Berrios 176 4.00 22.9% 101 103

126 Yusei Kikuchi 115 4.15 25.5% 107 97

157 Nate Pearson 67 4.22 25.1%

172 Ricky Tiedeman

185 Mitch White 76 4.38 20.0% 95 100

189 Thomas Hatch 21 4.43 19.0% 105 97

195 Zach Thompson 41 4.64 17.7% 86 100

 

takeaways for me:

1. Kikuchi's projection works for me. Rank 126 means he projects to be an SP5.

2. Eno ranks Pearson here but I don't think Toronto is considering him as a SP at all in 2023.

3. Tiedemann is an arbitrary rank. There is no data, so no projection.

4. Zach Thompson sucks. 86 projected stuff+ is horrible.

5. White does not have good projections but with a 100 location+, he just needs SOMETHING to tick up on the stuff side to be decent. His projection is still above replacement level, though.

6. If the top 4 starters pitch to these numbers I think we will all be very happy.

7. White + Kikuchi combining these two projections in the SP5 slot would be something like 1.5 WAR.

 

I'm sure there's an answer but how does Berrios project for a higher ERA than Manoah and Bassitt with better STUFF+ & LOCATION+ rating?

[Terminator]

Yeah, logically looking at this, dude's going to get paid, we get a comp pick and all's well. Cause Barger's going to rake.

 

Barger/Orelvis 3 WAR platoon.

[Spanky99]

Barger/Orelvis 3 WAR platoon.

 

Nah, Orelvis is still a long way from the roster, '25.

[Terminator]

Whatever

[Laika]

I'm sure there's an answer but how does Berrios project for a higher ERA than Manoah and Bassitt with better STUFF+ & LOCATION+ rating?

 

They have kind of started with a traditional projection model and then layered in projected Stuff+ etc. as new components, to improve things like projected BABIP.

 

Berrios was an enigma in 2022. I'm guessing the Stuff+ and Location+ components have brought down his projected ERA in their model, but not enough to be in line with the guys who have better recent track records of run prevention.

[Spanky99]

Whatever

 

lol

[Orgfiller]

Barger/Orelvis 3 WAR platoon.

 

Nah, Orelvis is still a long way from the roster, '25.

 

I don't think this is necessarily true. One thing to remember is Orelvis was 20 and played a full year at AA, ahead/on track with most top prospects even if the results left something to be desired (30 HR in AA as a 20 year old is pretty nuts still). Barger obviously had a much better year, but he also started as a 22 year old in A+ and only played 55 games in AA+AAA.

 

If Orelvis continues to track like a legitimate prospect, then he should be in AAA by mid-late season and essentially ready to be given a good look at the MLB level in 2024. Orelvis could merely be "above average" in AA and parts of AAA this season and still be on a much stronger developmental track than Barger is right now. An average platoon of the two by the end of 2023, let alone 2024, is not at all out of the question.

[Spanky99]

I don't think this is necessarily true. One thing to remember is Orelvis was 20 and played a full year at AA, ahead/on track with most top prospects even if the results left something to be desired (30 HR in AA as a 20 year old is pretty nuts still). Barger obviously had a much better year, but he also started as a 22 year old in A+ and only played 55 games in AA+AAA.

 

If Orelvis continues to track like a legitimate prospect, then he should be in AAA by mid-late season and essentially ready to be given a good look at the MLB level in 2024. Orelvis could merely be "above average" in AA and parts of AAA this season and still be on a much stronger developmental track than Barger is right now. An average platoon of the two by the end of 2023, let alone 2024, is not at all out of the question.

 

Yes, I understand all that, just don't see him getting there in '24 is all, I have high hopes for the kid, big year for him.

[Terminator]

Boom take that Spanky

[TBJ12]

Are you Roy Firestone or something??

 

s***. You might be right.

[Virgil_Hiltz]

Yes, I understand all that, just don't see him getting there in '24 is all, I have high hopes for the kid, big year for him.

 

One season difference in projection for MLB players is bascially the same.

[Spanky99]

One season difference in projection for MLB players is bascially the same.

 

Huh?

[Spanky99]

Boom take that Spanky

 

lol... what?

[Captain_Obvious]

Kirk is probably behind in his preseason preparations. He has not reported to Spring Training as he is expecting his new child soon. Luckily, we will have the best catcher in 2023 in Danny Jansen. I hope Atkins gets off his ass and extends him already.

 

https://www.mlb.com/bluejays/news/danny-jansen-alejandro-kirk-2023-catching-tandem

 

The Blue Jays haven’t seen Kirk yet this spring, though, making Jansen even more important. Kirk has been delayed arriving as he and his partner expect a child any day, but with him planning to play for Mexico at the upcoming World Baseball Classic in March, the timeline is starting get awfully tight.

 

“We’re getting to the point where it will be a little meticulous,” said manager John Schneider. "We had a plan in place for him for the WBC for a while, so we’ve got to feel it out when he gets here with how it looks and how he feels. He’s doing everything in his power right now to be at, or maybe a little bit below, where the guys are now who have been here.”

 

Schneider added that “conversations are ongoing” about Kirk and the WBC. Just how well Kirk has trained at home this offseason will surely factor in, but regardless, it’s Jansen who is in camp working with the club’s new arms every day, taking steps ahead when it comes to their preparation. The hope is that Kirk is able to arrive soon, but that remains a day-to-day situation.

[Jimcanuck]

For cripes sake, just induce the kid already.

[Terminator]

Just how well Kirk has trained at home this offseason will surely factor in

 

Lol

[wilko]

Lol

 

What's so funny?

[Captain_Obvious]

I am preparing myself mentally for a very fat Kirk. However, I have some hope that becoming a father has motivated him to train hard to reach the peak of his potential.

[wilko]

I am preparing myself mentally for a very fat Kirk. However, I have some hope that becoming a father has motivated him to train hard to reach the peak of his potential.

 

Fattist much? Reported.

[Captain_Obvious]

Fattist much? Reported.

 

Doesn't Fattist mean that I am an advocate for fat people? Like feminist is an advocate for feminism, and fascist is an advocate for fascism.

[wilko]

Doesn't Fattist mean that I am an advocate for fat people? Like feminist is an advocate for feminism, and fascist is an advocate for fascism.

 

[Stangstag]

 

Kirk will definitely be the fattist at spring training. The trainer dude might rival him

[WryNGinger]

Eno Sarris / The Athletic did "starting pitching ranks for 2023, with Stuff+ powered projections"

 

RANK / PLAYER / IP / ERA / K% / STUFF+ / LOCATION+

17 Kevin Gausman 179 3.19 28.1% 110 105

28 Alek Manoah 199 3.63 24.6% 100 99

47 Chris Bassitt 176 3.87 22.1% 98 102

56 Jose Berrios 176 4.00 22.9% 101 103

126 Yusei Kikuchi 115 4.15 25.5% 107 97

157 Nate Pearson 67 4.22 25.1%

172 Ricky Tiedeman

185 Mitch White 76 4.38 20.0% 95 100

189 Thomas Hatch 21 4.43 19.0% 105 97

195 Zach Thompson 41 4.64 17.7% 86 100

 

takeaways for me:

1. Kikuchi's projection works for me. Rank 126 means he projects to be an SP5.

2. Eno ranks Pearson here but I don't think Toronto is considering him as a SP at all in 2023.

3. Tiedemann is an arbitrary rank. There is no data, so no projection.

4. Zach Thompson sucks. 86 projected stuff+ is horrible.

5. White does not have good projections but with a 100 location+, he just needs SOMETHING to tick up on the stuff side to be decent. His projection is still above replacement level, though.

6. If the top 4 starters pitch to these numbers I think we will all be very happy.

7. White + Kikuchi combining these two projections in the SP5 slot would be something like 1.5 WAR.

 

Did any other teams have 4 starters ranked in the top 60?

[Laika]

Did any other teams have 4 starters ranked in the top 60?

 

hmmm let me see.

yes, several. and many with 3 in the top 60 as well.

 

Brewers

1 - Burnes

6 - Woodruff

51 - Peralta

 

Yankees

2 - Cole

10 - Rodon

25 - Severino

36 - Cortes

 

Mets

9 - Verlander

11 - Scherzer

35 - Senga

 

Mariners

13 - Castillo

30 - Kirby

31 - Gilbert

32 - Ray

 

Padres

21 - Snell

22 - Darvish

23 - Musgrove

 

Twins

53 - Lopez

55 - Mahle

60 - Ryan

 

Rays

7 - McClanahan

20 - Glasnow

33 - Rasmussen

45 - Springs

 

Rangers

8 - deGrom

49 - Eovaldi

52 - Gray

54 - Heaney

 

Dodgers

19 - Urias

34 - Kershaw

41 - May

 

Braves

3 - Strider

29 - Fried

42 - Morton

48 - Wright

 

Astros

16 - Javier

26 - Valdez

44 - Garcia

[Carlos Danger]

hmmm let me see.

yes, several. and many with 3 in the top 60 as well.

 

Brewers

1 - Burnes

6 - Woodruff

51 - Peralta

 

Yankees

2 - Cole

10 - Rodon

25 - Severino

36 - Cortes

 

Mets

9 - Verlander

11 - Scherzer

35 - Senga

 

Mariners

13 - Castillo

30 - Kirby

31 - Gilbert

32 - Ray

 

Padres

21 - Snell

22 - Darvish

23 - Musgrove

 

Twins

53 - Lopez

55 - Mahle

60 - Ryan

 

Rays

7 - McClanahan

20 - Glasnow

33 - Rasmussen

45 - Springs

 

Rangers

8 - deGrom

49 - Eovaldi

52 - Gray

54 - Heaney

 

Dodgers

19 - Urias

34 - Kershaw

41 - May

 

Braves

3 - Strider

29 - Fried

42 - Morton

48 - Wright

 

Astros

16 - Javier

26 - Valdez

44 - Garcia

 

No Marlins no Indians?