Around Baseball 2023

[Olerud363]

Of course they will. Maybe not as many as would 10 years ago, but there will be plenty.

 

Just like if Vlad had actually won the meaningless triple crown a few years ago, he would have got more 1st place votes. Myabe not enough to win it from Ohtani, but probably would have been a lot closer.

 

That would have been justified though, to win the triple Crown in 2021 Vlad would have had to hit .320 50 125 and finish strong, and the extra runs would almost certainly mean the Jays win a couple of extra games and make the playoffs.

 

There have been debates about this before but it's the MVP award, not the fangraphs WAR award. So there a cases where a guy with less WAR does something impressive and leads his team to the playoffs then perhaps he deserves the MVP.

 

MVP is not an exact science, like in 2015 Josh Donaldson had less WAR than Trout, but led the league in several important categories and ended the Blue Jays 20 year playoff drought.

 

Back to Ohtani 9 WAR vs a hypothetical Vlad Triple Crown, with 7 WAR leading Jays to playoffs, probably still Ohtani because the 2-way story was insane too. However if it was Vlad triple crown + playoffs with 7 WAR vs Trout with 9 WAR, Vlad would probably have won, as we saw back with Miggy.

[Olerud363]

I think if he hits .400 he gets the MVP even if his WAR isn't close to the leaders

 

Hypothetically if he hits .400, his next 100 games of .400 will probably be worth more WAR, than the previous 60 because we have to assume he'll hit for a bit more power and go back to a 0 baserunner.

 

Like .400 for 1/3 of season with 1 homer and -5 base running, was 2 WAR, so if he did another .400 for the next 3rd of a season with 3 homers and neutral baserunning it's probably closer to 3... and he does that for another third of the season he'll be close to 8 WAR .

 

Conditional that he hit's .400 in 150 games he's probably getting out-WARED 9-7.x or something by the WAR leader and it's a pretty typical difference between WAR leader, and MVP with a better story.

[Laika]

Hypothetically if he hits .400, his next 100 games of .400 will probably be worth more WAR, than the previous 60 because we have to assume he'll hit for a bit more power and go back to a 0 baserunner.

 

Like .400 for 1/3 of season with 1 homer and -5 base running, was 2 WAR, so if he did another .400 for the next 3rd of a season with 3 homers and neutral baserunning it's probably closer to 3... and he does that for another third of the season he'll be close to 8 WAR .

 

Conditional that he hit's .400 in 150 games he's probably getting out-WARED 9-7.x or something by the WAR leader and it's a pretty typical difference between WAR leader, and MVP with a better story.

 

I don't think so. 30th percentile sprint speed so he likely is a below average runner and defender at this point in his career. Even if the BsR has positive regression it's probably still negative ROS, and the defense might regress in the other direction (his UZR is +4/150games right now but his career is -3/150games). I'm thinking 5.5 to 6 WAR would be his range of outcomes if he continues to play like this.

 

Acuna might end up with some insane counting stats himself. He is on pace for:

 

31 HR, 74 SB, .331 AVG, .404 OBP, 128 runs, 87 RBI, 7.7 WAR

 

AND his "projected" pace (add ROS projections to current stats) is basically the same, just reduce the AVG and OBP a bit.

 

What if it's Acuna with .320/.410 30 HR 65 SB 130 Runs 100 RBI 7.7 WAR

 

vs

 

Arraez with .401/.450 with 3 HR, 2 SB, 65 runs, 80 RBI 5.8 WAR

[G-Snarls]

I don't think so. 30th percentile sprint speed so he likely is a below average runner and defender at this point in his career. Even if the BsR has positive regression it's probably still negative ROS, and the defense might regress in the other direction (his UZR is +4/150games right now but his career is -3/150games). I'm thinking 5.5 to 6 WAR would be his range of outcomes if he continues to play like this.

 

Acuna might end up with some insane counting stats himself. He is on pace for:

 

31 HR, 74 SB, .331 AVG, .404 OBP, 128 runs, 87 RBI, 7.7 WAR

 

AND his "projected" pace (add ROS projections to current stats) is basically the same, just reduce the AVG and OBP a bit.

 

What if it's Acuna with .320/.410 30 HR 65 SB 130 Runs 100 RBI 7.7 WAR

 

vs

 

Arraez with .401/.450 with 3 HR, 2 SB, 65 runs, 80 RBI 5.8 WAR

 

And Braves and Marlins both make the post season?

 

Vote would be very split

[jaysblue]

Strider gave up 8 ER tonight.

 

Verlander wasn't sharp either. Looks like his best days are behind him.

[Brownie19]

I don't think so. 30th percentile sprint speed so he likely is a below average runner and defender at this point in his career. Even if the BsR has positive regression it's probably still negative ROS, and the defense might regress in the other direction (his UZR is +4/150games right now but his career is -3/150games). I'm thinking 5.5 to 6 WAR would be his range of outcomes if he continues to play like this.

 

Acuna might end up with some insane counting stats himself. He is on pace for:

 

31 HR, 74 SB, .331 AVG, .404 OBP, 128 runs, 87 RBI, 7.7 WAR

 

AND his "projected" pace (add ROS projections to current stats) is basically the same, just reduce the AVG and OBP a bit.

 

What if it's Acuna with .320/.410 30 HR 65 SB 130 Runs 100 RBI 7.7 WAR

 

vs

 

Arraez with .401/.450 with 3 HR, 2 SB, 65 runs, 80 RBI 5.8 WAR

 

Then that's Acuna in a landslide IMO. Punching a ton of singles with awful baserunning and defense isn't MVP material.

[Olerud363]

 

What if it's Acuna with .320/.410 30 HR 65 SB 130 Runs 100 RBI 7.7 WAR

 

vs

 

Arraez with .401/.450 with 3 HR, 2 SB, 65 runs, 80 RBI 5.8 WAR

 

If that happened it probably depends whether Miami makes the playoffs.

 

However while I think Araez could hit .350 and only have 4 WAR, I still think IF he hit .400 he'd have to be so locked in that other things going right, like more homers and doubles, more walks if pitchers start nibbling, more runs, even better baserunning.

 

Who knows. hmmmm... lol. Tony Gwynn had mediocre War (for a .370 hitter) between 94 and 97... lol. So bad defensively he was at about Arraez's level in terms of WAR. Even worse a couple of those years. Like .350 with 2 WAR and .372 .409 .547 (17 homers) but only 4 WAR. I guess Arraez can hit .400 with 5.8 WAR.

[Olerud363]

Then that's Acuna in a landslide IMO. Punching a ton of singles with awful baserunning and defense isn't MVP material.

 

Voters may be smarter now, but they voted for Ichiro in 2001 because of the Story. Giambi beat him 9.3 to 6.0, Brett Boone 7.8 to 6.0, and a few other guys on contenders beat Ichiro, but Ichiro got the MVP.

 

So you may say, well Ichiro was a good base-runner and defensive player so that's OK. However we are talking about what 'story' will make the voters go for a 6 WAR guy over the WAR leaders....

 

Is the .400 and leading the Marlins to the playoffs a better story than a Japanese legend hitting .350 with good D and baserunning and leading Seattle to 116 wins?

[John_Havok]

Voters may be smarter now, but they voted for Ichiro in 2001 because of the Story. Giambi beat him 9.3 to 6.0, Brett Boone 7.8 to 6.0, and a few other guys on contenders beat Ichiro, but Ichiro got the MVP.

 

So you may say, well Ichiro was a good base-runner and defensive player so that's OK. However we are talking about what 'story' will make the voters go for a 6 WAR guy over the WAR leaders....

 

Is the .400 and leading the Marlins to the playoffs a better story than a Japanese legend hitting .350 with good D and baserunning and leading Seattle to 116 wins?

 

That’s kinda the rub. Seeing someone hit .400 will have that “omg this hasn’t been done since ….blah blah blah” factor. Even though simple math tells us that while hitting .400 is damn impressive and definitely worthy of admiration, praise and should be honoured as a remarkable achievement, the player shouldn’t just be elevated to MVP status if the rest of the package isn’t there.

 

The thing is, there still enough dinosaurs around and with a .400 average being like some holy grail achievement, they’ll be sufficiently blinded by the rest of the players flaws that the MVP quite likely could go his way.

[Terminator]

Arraez is flirting with .400 in a season where the league average is .247. The year Ted Williams hit .407 the league average was .264.

 

Arraez BA+ is much much higher.

[jaysblue]

Arraez is flirting with .400 in a season where the league average is .247. The year Ted Williams hit .407 the league average was .264.

 

Arraez BA+ is much much higher.

 

Kim Ng's plan of going after all slap hitters is working! The new market efficiency. Screw the long ball!

[John_Havok]

Arraez is flirting with .400 in a season where the league average is .247. The year Ted Williams hit .407 the league average was .264.

 

Arraez BA+ is much much higher.

 

And along with the .406 BA, Williams OBP was .553 and SLG was .786.w

 

BA+ might be higher, but I’d gladly get hit by a limp noodle at a .400 rate even in todays lower BA environment comparatively. Williams walked 147 times that season too. He only had 185 hits in 606 PA, 456 AB.

 

Last season Arraez had 603 PA, 547 AB. 173 hits. Basically 100 more AB, 12 fewer hits. Seems to me if he really wants to hit .400 he needs to start walking more.

Edited June 9, 2023 by John_Havok

[jaysblue]

Luis Arraez 34 to 1 to win NL MVP.

[John_Havok]

Luis Arraez 34 to 1 to win NL MVP.

 

jays odds to win WS…+1600

 

Orioles +4000

 

Red Sox +6600

[jaysblue]

jays odds to win WS…+1600

 

Orioles +4000

 

Red Sox +6600

 

Orioles as an underdog aren't bad actually given those odds.

 

Jays odds suck.

 

I'm feeling lucky tonight and going to hop on the Kim Ng bandwagon. Going to bet Arraez for NL MVP and Marlins to win the World Series.

[Brownie19]

Voters may be smarter now, but they voted for Ichiro in 2001 because of the Story. Giambi beat him 9.3 to 6.0, Brett Boone 7.8 to 6.0, and a few other guys on contenders beat Ichiro, but Ichiro got the MVP.

 

So you may say, well Ichiro was a good base-runner and defensive player so that's OK. However we are talking about what 'story' will make the voters go for a 6 WAR guy over the WAR leaders....

 

Is the .400 and leading the Marlins to the playoffs a better story than a Japanese legend hitting .350 with good D and baserunning and leading Seattle to 116 wins?

 

Voters weren't looking at WAR in 2001 man...

[John_Havok]

Rangers @ Rays starting tonight for 3 game set.

 

Hope the Rangers bring their A game.

[mphenhef]

Then that's Acuna in a landslide IMO. Punching a ton of singles with awful baserunning and defense isn't MVP material.

 

The narrative of a 400 season will get Arraez a large number of votes. Remember, many of the voters are not advanced.

[The Cats Ass]

Voters may be smarter now, but they voted for Ichiro in 2001 because of the Story. Giambi beat him 9.3 to 6.0, Brett Boone 7.8 to 6.0, and a few other guys on contenders beat Ichiro, but Ichiro got the MVP.

 

So you may say, well Ichiro was a good base-runner and defensive player so that's OK. However we are talking about what 'story' will make the voters go for a 6 WAR guy over the WAR leaders....

 

Is the .400 and leading the Marlins to the playoffs a better story than a Japanese legend hitting .350 with good D and baserunning and leading Seattle to 116 wins?

 

I don't think WAR was publicly available back then. You're comparing apples to sand castles.

[Terminator]

Sale was sent to the 60 day IL.

[BTS]

Sale was sent to the 60 day IL.

 

He's looking pretty cooked

[BTS]

Our old friend Ryan Noda has a 158 wRC+ and 2 WAR so far this season.

[Laika]

Our old friend Ryan Noda has a 158 wRC+ and 2 WAR so far this season.

 

omfg

[Terminator]

He's looking pretty cooked

 

His underlying numbers were better than the results but the injuries are just stacking up too much. Hard to count on at all at this point.

[Olerud363]

Our old friend Ryan Noda has a 158 wRC+ and 2 WAR so far this season.

 

His numbers are exactly the same as his minor league numbers. He was like a .250 .410 .480 minor league hitter. Some of it was at low levels, but still he was good in aa and aaa. It's a good outcome, but not an unusual one for a hitter to perform in the majors at the same rate they did in the minors.

[Spanky99]

Well, to a certain extent it is him. Of his 87 hits, 70 are singles and 1 homerun, so he's scored himself twice. He also 19 walks to go along with it. So you take a guy who almost always is on first, and is a slow + bad baserunner, and you're not going to score a lot of runs. Look at Kirk and Belt, high OBP guys but incredibly slow/brutal baserunners. 17 and 13 runs scored respectively. Kiermaier has scored 26 times, Merrifield 28. Those are guys without a lot of power, but they're aggressive runners who get themselves extra bases with their speed through hustle or base stealing.

 

Fair enough.

[Spanky99]

It honestly wouldn’t be the worst thing, how many .400 avg seasons have there been in history? Its extremely difficult to pull off.

 

That being said I think he probably finishes around .350 avg. its just way too difficult to sustain .400 over 160 games

 

First player since '97 to hit .400 this late, that was Larry Walker.

[The Cats Ass]

He's looking pretty cooked

 

https://syndication.bleacherreport.com/amp/1654571-will-chris-sales-mechanics-spell-big-trouble-for-him-down-the-road.amp.html

[BTS]

Kyle Hendricks taking a no-hitter into the 8th

[Spanky99]

Kyle Hendricks taking a no-hitter into the 8th

 

Figures, lol.