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Posted
Despite hitting over .400 in the leadoff position Luis Arraez has somehow only scored 24 runs

 

That's not on him, lol... dude is raking.

Community Moderator
Posted
That's not on him, lol... dude is raking.

 

The Marlins have some decent bats below him. They have a league average offense.

Posted
That's not on him, lol... dude is raking.

 

He's the worst baserunner in the league according to fangraphs. Haven't watched him play so not sure why, or if that number is really meaningful, but he's apparently down -5 runs baserunning and if that is true that would account for a good portion of the expected runs scored.

Posted
The Marlins have some decent bats below him. They have a league average offense.

 

Hey mod guy, clean up the spam

Posted
He's the worst baserunner in the league according to fangraphs. Haven't watched him play so not sure why, or if that number is really meaningful, but he's apparently down -5 runs baserunning and if that is true that would account for a good portion of the expected runs scored.

 

 

An alternative explanation is that his low runs scored are just a fluke because of weird batted ball events behind him, like an abnormal number of hits he can't advance on, then the baserunning numbers are low because he isn't advancing as much as he should, but that is because of fluky events behind him, not him.

 

Like if a guy hits a 109 mph single when he's on second, right to a right fielder with a good arm and he can't score, the baserunning system probably pings him, but it's not his fault.

Posted
An alternative explanation is that his low runs scored are just a fluke because of weird batted ball events behind him, like an abnormal number of hits he can't advance on, then the baserunning numbers are low because he isn't advancing as much as he should, but that is because of fluky events behind him, not him.

 

Like if a guy hits a 109 mph single when he's on second, right to a right fielder with a good arm and he can't score, the baserunning system probably pings him, but it's not his fault.

 

Another theory is that he’s just not a good base runner, since he never has been. He’s never been this bad, but he’s usually below average on the bases when all is said and done.

 

Keep in mind he’s below average in footspeed, just slightly ahead of Vlad in terms of feet/s.

 

Arraez 26.3, Vlad 26.1

Posted (edited)
All the talk about the shift ban and more hits...

 

2018 MLB BA .248

2019 MLB BA .252

2020 MB BA .245

2021 MLB BA .244

2022 MLB BA .243

2023 MLB BA .247

 

Kinda just looks like an average year

 

 

Major League Batting Year-by-Year Averages

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/majors/bat.shtml

 

That is interesting. For me, the eye test suggests there is more hits this year. I wonder if there's a difference in BABIP?

 

I could be totally wrong about this, but I thought offense typically improves as the weather warms up and the year goes on. I wonder if you compared the current league average of .247 to previous years at the same point in the season if you'd see a bigger difference. Maybe not!

 

I wonder if the pitch clock has actually helped to improve defense (and pitching?) - which is countering the gains that the shift ban provides?

Edited by Brownie19
Posted

Remember when we were talking about trading a catcher for Corbin Carrol? hahahahahaha

 

149 wRC+ and the 8th best WAR for a positional player in baseball. He belongs in the conversation as one of the new faces of baseball.

Posted
Remember when we were talking about trading a catcher for Corbin Carrol? hahahahahaha

 

149 wRC+ and the 8th best WAR for a positional player in baseball. He belongs in the conversation as one of the new faces of baseball.

 

It was a nice pipe dream

Posted
That's not on him, lol... dude is raking.

 

Well, to a certain extent it is him. Of his 87 hits, 70 are singles and 1 homerun, so he's scored himself twice. He also 19 walks to go along with it. So you take a guy who almost always is on first, and is a slow + bad baserunner, and you're not going to score a lot of runs. Look at Kirk and Belt, high OBP guys but incredibly slow/brutal baserunners. 17 and 13 runs scored respectively. Kiermaier has scored 26 times, Merrifield 28. Those are guys without a lot of power, but they're aggressive runners who get themselves extra bases with their speed through hustle or base stealing.

Posted
Well, to a certain extent it is him. Of his 87 hits, 70 are singles and 1 homerun, so he's scored himself twice. He also 19 walks to go along with it. So you take a guy who almost always is on first, and is a slow + bad baserunner, and you're not going to score a lot of runs. Look at Kirk and Belt, high OBP guys but incredibly slow/brutal baserunners. 17 and 13 runs scored respectively. Kiermaier has scored 26 times, Merrifield 28. Those are guys without a lot of power, but they're aggressive runners who get themselves extra bases with their speed through hustle or base stealing.

 

I see this at U8 AA baseball every game. We have lots of kids who can hit, but so many of them are useless on the bases. The kids with wheels and baseball IQ score twice as much as the others. I'm glad to see that never really changes. And yes it's alarming to see how many 8 year old kids can't f***ing run, which seems like a basic skill at that age.

Old-Timey Member
Posted
And the Dodgers seemingly have pulled the plug on Thor. He's going on the IL with a "blister".

 

IF he comes back, I bet he'll be in the pen here on out.

Community Moderator
Posted
And the Dodgers seemingly have pulled the plug on Thor. He's going on the IL with a "blister".

 

the rare Dodgers failure story

Community Moderator
Posted
He's the worst baserunner in the league according to fangraphs. Haven't watched him play so not sure why, or if that number is really meaningful, but he's apparently down -5 runs baserunning and if that is true that would account for a good portion of the expected runs scored.

 

He gets to 1B a lot

But he rarely puts himself in scoring position with extra base hits, rarely homers himself in and he's a bad baserunner

 

This is part of why a guy like Acuna Jr or Springer can score way more runs while hitting for a batting average 150 points lower. Also. And yes it also depends on who is hitting being you of course. :)

 

JFC - Had to look it up. Acuna has already scored 52 runs. Literally double Arraez.

 

Will voters give him MVP votes if he flirts with 400 all year but ends with half the WAR that Acuna has??

Posted
He gets to 1B a lot

But he rarely puts himself in scoring position with extra base hits, rarely homers himself in and he's a bad baserunner

 

This is part of why a guy like Acuna Jr or Springer can score way more runs while hitting for a batting average 150 points lower. Also. And yes it also depends on who is hitting being you of course. :)

 

JFC - Had to look it up. Acuna has already scored 52 runs. Literally double Arraez.

 

Will voters give him MVP votes if he flirts with 400 all year but ends with half the WAR that Acuna has??

 

Of course they will. Maybe not as many as would 10 years ago, but there will be plenty.

 

Just like if Vlad had actually won the meaningless triple crown a few years ago, he would have got more 1st place votes. Myabe not enough to win it from Ohtani, but probably would have been a lot closer.

Community Moderator
Posted
He gets to 1B a lot

But he rarely puts himself in scoring position with extra base hits, rarely homers himself in and he's a bad baserunner

 

This is part of why a guy like Acuna Jr or Springer can score way more runs while hitting for a batting average 150 points lower. Also. And yes it also depends on who is hitting being you of course. :)

 

JFC - Had to look it up. Acuna has already scored 52 runs. Literally double Arraez.

 

Will voters give him MVP votes if he flirts with 400 all year but ends with half the WAR that Acuna has??

 

I think if he hits .400 he gets the MVP even if his WAR isn't close to the leaders

Posted
I think if he hits .400 he gets the MVP even if his WAR isn't close to the leaders

 

It honestly wouldn’t be the worst thing, how many .400 avg seasons have there been in history? Its extremely difficult to pull off.

 

That being said I think he probably finishes around .350 avg. its just way too difficult to sustain .400 over 160 games

Community Moderator
Posted
I think if he hits .400 he gets the MVP even if his WAR isn't close to the leaders

 

Dammit

 

I wish that weren't probably true

Community Moderator
Posted
It honestly wouldn’t be the worst thing, how many .400 avg seasons have there been in history? Its extremely difficult to pull off.

 

That being said I think he probably finishes around .350 avg. its just way too difficult to sustain .400 over 160 games

 

Heck yeah. I remember the pressure on Olerud in '93. It was a constant discussion point and probably affected him mentally

 

Ted Williams? Nah. Dude must have had nerves of fn steel.

Posted
I remember the pressure on Olerud in 93. It was a constant discussion point and probably affected him mentally

 

Ted Williams? Nah. Dude must have had nerves of fn steel.

 

Williams also hti 37 HRs that year he hit .400. Arraez has 0 chance of that.

Community Moderator
Posted
Williams also hti 37 HRs that year he hit .400.

 

And *HE* didn't even win MVP that year! So I dunno...

Posted
And *HE* didn't even win MVP that year!

 

He couldn’t even take his team to the playoffs that year… obviously didn’t deserve to be named MVP.

Community Moderator
Posted
He couldn’t even take his team to the playoffs that year… obviously didn’t deserve to be named MVP.

 

Baseball writers!!!

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