Around Baseball 2023

[Olerud363]

Is the world prejudiced against on base guys? Was Cito's hate of Johny O not personal but symptomatic of a repressive system that is rigged against the .280 .380 .400 hitter? Sure if you win a batting title or your name if Frank Thomas or Juan Soto they'll take the 130 walks... but if you are just a regular joe on base guy do you face obstacles that a Joe Carter type doesn't? Is the system rigged such that poor Spencer Horwitz will never be given a shot.

 

exhibit 1

 

Kirk vs Salvador Perez

 

They tracked each other pretty closely age 21-23, with both having an almost 4 WAR age 23 season. Kirk walked more, but Salvadore hit for a better average at this young age.

 

What happened next? Salvadore began his dark years with a run of 5 consecutive sub .300 on base seasons and was basically a 1 WAR player during this time. However his playing time did not decrease at all.

 

Poor Kirk goes into one little sort of slump, maintaining a good walk rate and a 2 WAR pace, but already was losing playing time before the Jansen injury

 

hmmmm....

[Brownie19]

I really enjoy these types of conversations. This type of analysis is fascinating to me and a big reason why I love this message board.

 

Do we think FO's are considering this type of thing? Does someone like Biggio get more rope because his skill set is so different than say Espinals? I'd love to know this type of thing.

 

 

I think most fans think skill normalize after 3 at bats. See the GDT's for proof.

[Brownie19]

Is the world prejudiced against on base guys? Was Cito's hate of Johny O not personal but symptomatic of a repressive system that is rigged against the .280 .380 .400 hitter? Sure if you win a batting title or your name if Frank Thomas or Juan Soto they'll take the 130 walks... but if you are just a regular joe on base guy do you face obstacles that a Joe Carter type doesn't? Is the system rigged such that poor Spencer Horwitz will never be given a shot.

 

exhibit 1

 

Kirk vs Salvador Perez

 

They tracked each other pretty closely age 21-23, with both having an almost 4 WAR age 23 season. Kirk walked more, but Salvadore hit for a better average at this young age.

 

What happened next? Salvadore began his dark years with a run of 5 consecutive sub .300 on base seasons and was basically a 1 WAR player during this time. However his playing time did not decrease at all.

 

Poor Kirk goes into one little sort of slump, maintaining a good walk rate and a 2 WAR pace, but already was losing playing time before the Jansen injury

 

hmmmm....

 

Oh man - Salvador Perez is such an interesting case study. Some people think he's Yadi and a surefire HOF player - when in reality, he's been a 1.5 WAR player throughout this career. I understand the defensive metrics may not be correctly assessing his value and he may have leadership skills - but he's not a very good player and certainly not a HOFer.

[Olerud363]

Oh man - Salvador Perez is such an interesting case study. Some people think he's Yadi and a surefire HOF player - when in reality, he's been a 1.5 WAR player throughout this career. I understand the defensive metrics may not be correctly assessing his value and he may have leadership skills - but he's not a very good player and certainly not a HOFer.

 

Totally.

 

Another interesting exhibit is Yadier Molina vs Russell Martin

 

Same career WAR but Martin did it in 500 less games. Both have built their WAR largely on ridiculous defensive numbers, so if you think Martin is a bit over-rated because he wasn't really a +50 defensive player one year, because no one is, same applies to Molina.

 

Martin has an edge because he has twice as many walks, so better offensive player despite an average 30 points lower. Both 55 WAR guys.

 

55 WAR with less walks and more games = HALL OF FAME!

 

Actually if you asked some fans to rate the 3, it would probably go Molina, Perez, Martin

[Stangstag]

Totally.

 

Another interesting exhibit is Yadier Molina vs Russell Martin

 

Same career WAR but Martin did it in 500 less games. Both have built their WAR largely on ridiculous defensive numbers, so if you think Martin is a bit over-rated because he wasn't really a +50 defensive player one year, because no one is, same applies to Molina.

 

Martin has an edge because he has twice as many walks, so better offensive player despite an average 30 points lower. Both 55 WAR guys.

 

55 WAR with less walks and more games = HALL OF FAME!

 

Actually if you asked some fans to rate the 3, it would probably go Molina, Perez, Martin

 

World Series wins definitely matter in the minds of HoF voters

[Olerud363]

Greg Zaun vs. Salvadore Perez is an interesting one. They are very close. Zaun better per game but Perez 1 more career WAR.

 

Most people remember Greg Zaun as a Don Cherry wannabe that got canned just like Don Cherry eventually did. I think people would be surprised to hear he has the same fWAR as Salvadore.

 

Another guy who bounced around and was seemingly under-rated because he was an on base guy. In 2008, when he got re-hired, Cito immediately made sure Rod Barajas got 75% of the playing time and sent Zaun where he belonged on the bench, but Zaun was a nice piece for the 2005-2008 Jays.

 

Real interesting thing is Zaun's defensive numbers explode his last 3 years. Was this because they changed the defensive metrics around 2008?

 

Zaun also has the higher peak fWAR then Perez, 3.6 in 90 games in 2009... for some reason the d-numbers exploded around then.

 

Another case though of some poor .350 on base guy with (mayby?) really good defense having to sit for the aggressive .280 on base percentage of Rod Barajas.

[Olerud363]

World Series wins definitely matter in the minds of HoF voters

 

Sort of stupid, because Martin also made the playoffs almost every year, with different teams, and helped Pittsburgh and Toronto end long playoff droughts.

 

On the other hand Martin didn't hit very well in the playoffs (.190), while Molina wasn't spectacular, but around his career averages.

[jaysblue]

Greg Zaun vs. Salvadore Perez is an interesting one. They are very close. Zaun better per game but Perez 1 more career WAR.

 

Most people remember Greg Zaun as a Don Cherry wannabe that got canned just like Don Cherry eventually did. I think people would be surprised to hear he has the same fWAR as Salvadore.

 

Another guy who bounced around and was seemingly under-rated because he was an on base guy. In 2008, when he got re-hired, Cito immediately made sure Rod Barajas got 75% of the playing time and sent Zaun where he belonged on the bench, but Zaun was a nice piece for the 2005-2008 Jays.

 

Real interesting thing is Zaun's defensive numbers explode his last 3 years. Was this because they changed the defensive metrics around 2008?

 

Zaun also has the higher peak fWAR then Perez, 3.6 in 90 games in 2009... for some reason the d-numbers exploded around then.

 

Another case though of some poor .350 on base guy with (mayby?) really good defense having to sit for the aggressive .280 on base percentage of Rod Barajas.

 

Yeah I even in remember in 2006, the Jays brought in Bengie Molina late in the offseason on a one-year contract and pretty much Zaun was on the bench or played 30-40% of the time. Molina was a slow, high contact, low BB and low K bat with some pop. Zaun at least got on-base at a much higher clip and did have some decent pop. Zaun had a great 2005 season and they still brought in Bengie which IMO was a waste.

 

Overall, Gregg Zaun was a real solid catcher during his tenure with the Jays. Very underrated with the bat and his defense behind the plate. He caught Doc during his prime as well.

 

I hope Kirk could end up being like Gregg Zaun, which I think is a fair comparable. They have a similar skillset offensively and Kirk obviously has more power potential. He just needs to keep in better shape.

[Brownie19]

Totally.

 

Another interesting exhibit is Yadier Molina vs Russell Martin

 

Same career WAR but Martin did it in 500 less games. Both have built their WAR largely on ridiculous defensive numbers, so if you think Martin is a bit over-rated because he wasn't really a +50 defensive player one year, because no one is, same applies to Molina.

 

Martin has an edge because he has twice as many walks, so better offensive player despite an average 30 points lower. Both 55 WAR guys.

 

55 WAR with less walks and more games = HALL OF FAME!

 

Actually if you asked some fans to rate the 3, it would probably go Molina, Perez, Martin

 

You should add Brian McCann, and possibly Joe Mauer to this conversation...

[BTS]

I'm pretty open to the idea that pitchers know what they're talking about when they say they love throwing to Perez. He's going to end up starting like 1500 games at C for the same team, while winning a world series and being a league average bat. He probably also does a lot of things that don't show up in the WAR, but that his pitchers appreciate. I don't really have a problem with him eventually making the HoF.

 

By those standards though, a glaring HoF omission would be Jorge Posada.

[John_Havok]

I really enjoy these types of conversations. This type of analysis is fascinating to me and a big reason why I love this message board.

 

Do we think FO's are considering this type of thing? Does someone like Biggio get more rope because his skill set is so different than say Espinals? I'd love to know this type of thing.

 

 

I think most fans think skill normalize after 3 at bats. See the GDT's for proof.

 

Nah, most fans dont think things normalize after 3 PAs, but they sure think skills disappear after 1 or 2.

[Brownie19]

I'm pretty open to the idea that pitchers know what they're talking about when they say they love throwing to Perez. He's going to end up starting like 1500 games at C for the same team, while winning a world series and being a league average bat. He probably also does a lot of things that don't show up in the WAR, but that his pitchers appreciate. I don't really have a problem with him eventually making the HoF.

 

By those standards though, a glaring HoF omission would be Jorge Posada.

 

I guess it depends on how long he plays, but he probably finishes his career with a career WAR < 25 and very well could see his career wRC+ dip under 100. There's no way in hell I'd ever endorse him making the HOF, not matter how much pitchers like throwing to him. WAR isn't mis-valuing him that much.

 

You can't put Perez in while have guys like Russell Martin and Brian McCann missing the HOF with 54+ WAR (or even Posada). There's just no f***ing way. Any why on earth does team loyalty factor into HOF voting? It's the baseball HOF - how good you were at baseball.

[jaysblue]

Martin, McCann, Mauer, and Molina should all be in the HOF easily.

 

Posey should be a first ballot HOF. Was the best catcher over the last decade. 10.1 WAR season in 2012!

 

Perez shouldn't even be in the conversation for the Hall. He likely won't even top 20-25WAR for his career.

[BTS]

I guess it depends on how long he plays, but he probably finishes his career with a career WAR < 25 and very well could see his career wRC+ dip under 100. There's no way in hell I'd ever endorse him making the HOF, not matter how much pitchers like throwing to him. WAR isn't mis-valuing him that much.

 

You can't put Perez in while have guys like Russell Martin and Brian McCann missing the HOF with 54+ WAR (or even Posada). There's just no f***ing way. Any why on earth does team loyalty factor into HOF voting? It's the baseball HOF - how good you were at baseball.

 

Well, I think Martin and McCann should be in. Piazza and Pudge are the only two modern-day catchers in the hall - there should be more.

 

"Voting shall be based upon the player's record, playing ability, integrity, sportsmanship, character, and contributions to the team(s) on which the player played."

 

My perception is that voters actually do like longevity with the same team when voting. And I don't have a problem with that - it seems defensible under the BBWA rules.

[John_Havok]

Yeah I even in remember in 2006, the Jays brought in Bengie Molina late in the offseason on a one-year contract and pretty much Zaun was on the bench or played 30-40% of the time. Molina was a slow, high contact, low BB and low K bat with some pop. Zaun at least got on-base at a much higher clip and did have some decent pop. Zaun had a great 2005 season and they still brought in Bengie which IMO was a waste.

 

Overall, Gregg Zaun was a real solid catcher during his tenure with the Jays. Very underrated with the bat and his defense behind the plate. He caught Doc during his prime as well.

 

I hope Kirk could end up being like Gregg Zaun, which I think is a fair comparable. They have a similar skillset offensively and Kirk obviously has more power potential. He just needs to keep in better shape.

 

I thnk the thing I remember most about Zaun, was one day after his career was over and he was commentating about something, he went on some long rant about catchers and advanced stats (not statcast stuff this was before that) and how useless they were for evaluating catchers... Then i sorted the leaderboards on fangraphs for all the stats he mentioned and he like top 5 in catchers for all of them.

 

THen I stopped listening to Zaun as anything more than a mascot.

[jaysblue]

I thnk the thing I remember most about Zaun, was one day after his career was over and he was commentating about something, he went on some long rant about catchers and advanced stats (not statcast stuff this was before that) and how useless they were for evaluating catchers... Then i sorted the leaderboards on fangraphs for all the stats he mentioned and he like top 5 in catchers for all of them.

 

THen I stopped listening to Zaun as anything more than a mascot.

 

Kind of ironic haha.

 

Zaun was more valuable than Bengie in 2006 even with less playing time. Zaun 1.5 WAR in 99 games, Bengie 0.9 WAR in 117 games.

[John_Havok]

All star voting is out

 

https://www.mlb.com/all-star/ballot

 

[G-Snarls]

Kodai Senga threw 7 shutout innings against the Phils yesterday and brought his ERA down to 3.44

 

Still too many walks but has put up 1.0 fWAR already

[G-Snarls]

All star voting is out

 

https://www.mlb.com/all-star/ballot

 

Only Bo deserves real votes but Franco and Pena will get lots too

 

Looking at stats. When did Tim Anderson turn to complete s***?!?! .261/.297/.299 on the year with ZERO home runs.

 

Edit: Chapman too maybe. Even though he's cooled right off no one else at 3B has much better stats overall.

[jaysblue]

Only Bo deserves real votes but Franco and Pena will get lots too

 

Looking at stats. When did Tim Anderson turn to complete s***?!?! .261/.297/.299 on the year with ZERO home runs.

 

Edit: Chapman too maybe. Even though he's cooled right off no one else at 3B has much better stats overall.

 

I was never a fan of Tim Anderson. High contact skills but awful OBP skills. Guy would hit over .300 and still only have an OBP in the .330s lol.

[Brownie19]

Only Bo deserves real votes but Franco and Pena will get lots too

 

Looking at stats. When did Tim Anderson turn to complete s***?!?! .261/.297/.299 on the year with ZERO home runs.

 

Edit: Chapman too maybe. Even though he's cooled right off no one else at 3B has much better stats overall.

 

Tim Anderson's ISO dropped off last year and he seems to be lost at the plate this year. Never liked him, so I'm cool with him falling flat on his face.

 

Chapman is 15th in WAR (amongst positional players) across the entire MLB. Of course he deserves All Star Game votes. I also disagree that Pena should get votes at SS.

[jaysblue]

All star voting is out

 

https://www.mlb.com/all-star/ballot

 

 

Pretty much agree with the AL. All those players are deserving.

 

J.D. Davis in the NL for 3B is shocking, though he's having a good season. Guys like Arenado and Machado haven't been themselves. Riley has cooled down. Shocked Muncy isn't at the top in votes considering he plays in LA. Still some time to change though.

[John_Havok]

Only Bo deserves real votes but Franco and Pena will get lots too

 

Looking at stats. When did Tim Anderson turn to complete s***?!?! .261/.297/.299 on the year with ZERO home runs.

 

Edit: Chapman too maybe. Even though he's cooled right off no one else at 3B has much better stats overall.

 

Jung will probably get a ton of votes also

[Olerud363]

You should add Brian McCann, and possibly Joe Mauer to this conversation...

 

Joe Mauer vs. John Olerud is an interesting one. Olerud is beating him 58-53 in WAR, Mauer beats Olerud WAR per game. Olerud has 2 World Series rings for those who think that should give players a boost.

 

Interesting because they are really similar as hitters, with the same combination of a couple of spectacular batting title best hitter in the game type seasons, with a bunch of seasons that don't look amazing on the back of the baseball card but are solid.

 

Jorge Posada and Brian McCann are interesting. In 2010 McCann was like 70 runs better than Posada on defense.

 

Weird. Posada has a -30 defense year on fangraphs, while Molina, Martin, McCann all have a aproximately 50 season. That's like an 80 run difference from worst to best fangraphs catcher defense... probably why some people don't quite trust the fWar for catchers.

[jaysblue]

Mauer also never spent his entire career as a catcher. He moved to 1B and DH after, so that could go against him. As well, he never won a World Series and had durability issues.

 

Guys like McCann, Posey, and Martin played behind the plate until they retired. Same with Posada.

 

There is case to be made that Mauer could be in the HOF. He put together some great seasons and was one of the best pure hitters in baseball when healthy.

 

John Olerud I think deserves a place in the HOF if Mauer does but he only played 1B/DH. Though he did win two World Series and had two 8.1 WAR seasons.

[Omar]

Martin, McCann, Mauer, and Molina should all be in the HOF easily.

 

Posey should be a first ballot HOF. Was the best catcher over the last decade. 10.1 WAR season in 2012!

 

Perez shouldn't even be in the conversation for the Hall. He likely won't even top 20-25WAR for his career.

 

Russell Martin was a great player. Easily in the HOF? Keep dreaming.

[John_Havok]

Russell Martin was a great player. Easily in the HOF? Keep dreaming.

 

Why not? Exceptional defense and well above average bat for a catcher. Gotta compare him to other catchers, not other positions.

[Omar]

Why not? Exceptional defense and well above average bat for a catcher. Gotta compare him to other catchers, not other positions.

 

Why not? League average bat. Slugging percentage, meh. OPS+, meh. Defensive, yes. Easily a HOF, no way.

[John_Havok]

Why not? League average bat. Slugging percentage, meh. OPS+, meh. Defensive, yes. Easily a HOF, no way.

 

again... league average bat for a catcher is well above the norm for catchers. Compare him against other catchers, not outfielders and slugging corner IFs.

 

I agree his offensive profile doesnt jump off the page at first glance, but there's more than enough defense there to get him into the hall, even if he didn't hit like Posey.

[Omar]

again... league average bat for a catcher is well above the norm for catchers. Compare him against other catchers, not outfielders and slugging corner IFs.

 

I agree his offensive profile doesnt jump off the page at first glance, but there's more than enough defense there to get him into the hall, even if he didn't hit like Posey.

 

Russell had more power than Posey. Close in obp too. If Posey gets in easily, which he will, sure give Martin a look. I hope he gets in but it won't be "easily". Let's wait a couple of years and see what happens.

Edited June 1, 2023 by Omar