Around Baseball 2023

[jaysblue]

Dylan Cease, 2022 Cy Young Award runner up and bWAR leader is not close to being an elite pitcher. Did I read that correctly?

 

He does have high BB rates which will always hold him back from being in the same category as a Cole, Strider, Kershaw, Verlander, Scherzer etc. His xFIP last season was 3.50 and 4.02 career. He did have an amazing season in 2022, but I don't expect those numbers from him moving forward. Probably an ERA around 3.50-4ish every season with 200 + K's. He's more of a No. 2 starter than an ace.

 

Definitely a very solid arm, though I don't consider Cease in the upper tier when it comes to SPs.

[Grant77]

He does have high BB rates which will always hold him back from being in the same category as a Cole, Strider, Kershaw, Verlander, Scherzer etc. His xFIP last season was 3.50 and 4.02 career. He did have an amazing season in 2022, but I don't expect those numbers from him moving forward. Probably an ERA around 3.50-4ish every season with 200 + K's. He's more of a No. 2 starter than an ace.

 

Definitely a very solid arm, though I don't consider Cease in the upper tier when it comes to SPs.

 

I would note that he has higher fWAR than all of those pitchers except Scherzer over the past 2 full seasons and is 7th in baseball. Everyone has different definitions of elite but the 7th most valuable pitcher in baseball definitely makes it into my elite tier by some stretch of the imagination, to use your wording.

[Jimcanuck]

single and double for perdomo today, are we still attributing his performance to luck?

[connorp]

single and double for perdomo today, are we still attributing his performance to luck?

 

Which league do you have him in, mate?

[John_Havok]

[Dylan]

 

That's a lot of $$ sitting out. Jays have been lucky so far on the injury front.. knock on wood

[Jimcanuck]

Which league do you have him in, mate?

 

All of them

[BTS]

single and double for perdomo today, are we still attributing his performance to luck?

 

You're the only person here who thinks about Geraldo Perdomo, Jimbo

[connorp]

That's a lot of $$ sitting out. Jays have been lucky so far on the injury front.. knock on wood

 

Seems like it’s alternative years for NY

[Jonn]

Would be interesting to see if the White Sox trade Dylan Cease knowing there probably not going to be good by the time hes a free agent.

 

Probably would be the time the Orioles can make use of that golden system to go get a top of the rotation arm.

[Spanky__99]

FWIW he went 0-4 with 3K in a 13-1 loss to the Dodgers

 

I'm more talking about reaggravating the elbow, not the results.

[Ehjays]

FWIW he went 0-4 with 3K in a 13-1 loss to the Dodgers

 

....Bryce Harper today, 161 days removed from Tommy John surgery: 3-3, 2B, 2 BB, 2 RUNS

[Ehjays]

Max Scherzer's first post-suspension start, against the Tigers: 3.1 IP, 8 H, 1 BB, 3 K, 2 HR, 6 ER;

[BTS]

Max Scherzer's first post-suspension start, against the Tigers: 3.1 IP, 8 H, 1 BB, 3 K, 2 HR, 6 ER;

 

[G-Snarls]

Max Scherzer's first post-suspension start, against the Tigers: 3.1 IP, 8 H, 1 BB, 3 K, 2 HR, 6 ER;

 

[Stangstag]

 

But this is down from his career norms now no? So… he was cheating the whole time and only got caught now? Idk not really buying that

[BTS]

But this is down from his career norms now no? So… he was cheating the whole time and only got caught now? Idk not really buying that

 

I believe in that table the first three columns are for today's game and the 4th is his season's average.

[Stangstag]

I believe in that table the first three columns are for today's game and the 4th is his season's average.

 

Right, but I remember reading that his spin rates this year are roughly the same as his career norms. Even in the game he was tossed from

[Orgfiller]

What the f*** is going on with the Cardinals? 10-21 with mostly the same roster as last year.

[Pendleton]

What the f*** is going on with the Cardinals? 10-21 with mostly the same roster as last year.

 

They were booed off the field last night

[jaysblue]

What the f*** is going on with the Cardinals? 10-21 with mostly the same roster as last year.

 

Trade for Arenado next offseason

[BTS]

What the f*** is going on with the Cardinals? 10-21 with mostly the same roster as last year.

 

What made them think their pitching staff was in any way acceptable? Their actual plan was for this to be the rotation:

 

Waino - 111 years old

Montgomery - good 3/4

Mikolas - good 3/4

Flaherty - injured and bad last year

Matz - injured last year

 

And the only depth propping up this paper thin shitshow was Jake Woodford, Packy Naughton, Dakota Hudson, and Matthew Liberatore. All of whom are basically guaranteed to suck except Liberatore.

 

I have a lot of respect for what the Cardinals do, but that's just embarrassing.

[Pendleton]

What made them think their pitching staff was in any way acceptable? Their actual plan was for this to be the rotation:

 

Waino - 111 years old

Montgomery - good 3/4

Mikolas - good 3/4

Flaherty - injured and bad last year

Matz - injured last year

 

And the only depth propping up this paper thin shitshow was Jake Woodford, Packy Naughton, Dakota Hudson, and Matthew Liberatore. All of whom are basically guaranteed to suck except Liberatore.

 

I have a lot of respect for what the Cardinals do, but that's just embarrassing.

 

[Laika]

What the f*** is going on with the Cardinals? 10-21 with mostly the same roster as last year.

 

pythag W-L is 14-17 so they are getting unlucky

 

but, they just aren't very good. aside from the obvious problems with the pitching staff they are surprisingly unathletic for a Cardinals team.

 

I like to look at DEF and BSR runs combined on Fangraphs to get a good idea of which teams are neglecting the non-hitting side of position players. The bottom ten is kind of a list of the most poorly run organizations in the game, to be honest. STL is not typically negative in this stuff.

 

MIA -7.8

BOS -8.2

CHW -8.3

WSN -8.8

MIN -8.9

CIN -9.3

STL -10

BAL -10.9

OAK -11

PHI -11.8

COL -20.9

[BTS]

I think Carter Hawkins might be an idiot. The team has received 85 PA from Hosmer who has a 79 wRC+, has been rostering Nick Madrigal and Edwin Rios all season (both sub-replacement level), and actually used Luis Torrens at DH earlier this year.

 

Christopher Morel put up 1.6 fWAR in MLB last year, and has a 214 wRC+ in AAA this year. He's slugging 0.821. Matt Mervis has a 140 wRC+ in AAA. And they're just continuing to roll with a bunch of no-upside trash on the MLB team. Hosmer, their DH, tried and failed to drop a sac bunt with two runners on in the 9th last night.

 

When asked about it, Hawkins said he didn't want to deplete organizational depth this early in the season. Which should be a fireable offense, given that the organizational depth he's talking about is sub-replacement level and costing the MLB team actual wins.

 

This article is an appropriate takedown:

 

https://pointlessexercise.substack.com/p/carter-really-shouldnt-be-allowed

[Laika]

I think Carter Hawkins might be an idiot. The team has received 85 PA from Hosmer who has a 79 wRC+, has been rostering Nick Madrigal and Edwin Rios all season (both sub-replacement level), and actually used Luis Torrens at DH earlier this year.

 

Christopher Morel put up 1.6 fWAR in MLB last year, and has a 214 wRC+ in AAA this year. He's slugging 0.821. Matt Mervis has a 140 wRC+ in AAA. And they're just continuing to roll with a bunch of no-upside trash on the MLB team. Hosmer, their DH, tried and failed to drop a sac bunt with two runners on in the 9th last night.

 

When asked about it, Hawkins said he didn't want to deplete organizational depth this early in the season. Which should be a fireable offense, given that the organizational depth he's talking about is sub-replacement level and costing the MLB team actual wins.

 

This article is an appropriate takedown:

 

https://pointlessexercise.substack.com/p/carter-really-shouldnt-be-allowed

 

It looks like service time manipulation but it really can't be or shouldn't be because they are .500 and ostensibly trying to compete.

 

Really just at a loss. I sort of get not handing a job to Matt Mervis, 1B prospects are 1B prospects, but Morel not being on the roster is f***ing insane, he is such a useful player.

[BTS]

It looks like service time manipulation but it really can't be or shouldn't be because they are .500 and ostensibly trying to compete.

 

Really just at a loss. I sort of get not handing a job to Matt Mervis, 1B prospects are 1B prospects, but Morel not being on the roster is f***ing insane, he is such a useful player.

 

A 0.500 team in a market that big worrying about service time for players like Mervis and Morel would be pathetic. These aren't going to be superstars.

 

I guess they might think Mervis is a AAAA type who won't hit MLB pitching or something. I still think it's insane to run with Rios and Hosmer over him when you're a 0.500 team, but I could accept that. As you say, Morel is particularly weird. He demonstrated last year that he's a good MLB player, and is absolutely laying waste to AAA.

 

Honestly, the quotes from their GM just make it seem like he has wrong ideas about how fungible depth pieces like Hosmer, Madrigal, and Rios are.

[BTS]

Verlander's Mets debut isn't going well

[Orgfiller]

Verlander's Mets debut isn't going well

 

The Mets paying 38 year old Max Scherzer and 40 year old Justin Verlander a combined $80M for them to have finally declined due to old age would be f***ing hilarious.

[BTS]

The Mets paying 38 year old Max Scherzer and 40 year old Justin Verlander a combined $80M for them to have finally declined due to old age would be f***ing hilarious.

 

Also Carrasco and Quintana are both broken. Their plan to build a rotation of a bunch of old f***s has been disastrous.