Blue Jays acquire Daulton Varsho for Moreno and Gurriel

[connorp]

1.5 projected WAR, that's worth a bit more than his $5.4M salary

 

I'm just talking about some 40 FV prospect barely inside a team's top 20. Those guys are only worth a few million.

 

Trading LG for a 40fv meh prospect would be really bad optics.

[Laika]

It should not be that surprising that a player coming off a 4.6 WAR season, with that talent level supported by prior MLB data, with 4 years of control remaining, would be worth slightly more than a 60 FV prospect.

 

Again, Moreno was only the "#1 prospect in baseball" because of proximity and circumstance. By talent he has always kind of been functionally equivalent to 10-15 other prospects. Look at the Fangraphs prospect board for the 2022 update it has Gunnar and Eury Perez as 65 FV and than Moreno #3 at 60 FV but 13 other dudes with the same FV.

 

One other 60 FV guy on that list has been traded - Noelvi Marte. He was traded with three other good prospects for just 1.5 years of Luis Castillo, who was coming off a 3.8 WAR season and in the midst of a 3.7 WAR season.

 

That should make a Jays fan feel better about trading a 60 FV prospect for 4 seasons of a guy like Varsho.

[Laika]

The 9? M per WAR formula works above a certain threshold. There are tons of 1 WAR position players you can get at league minimum.

 

Okay, but we've seen guys like this sign for a few mill more than Lourdes this offseason. e.g. Aledmys Diaz actually got 2/$14.

[Captain_Obvious]

I like but dont love this trade. I really think that last year is moreno last year was first year after hand injury. I think he will mash this year.

 

You have to give up good players to get good players, though.

 

It is a fair trade because we gave up significant value to get equally significant value back. I still love it because it improves the team significantly for the next few years.

[Laika]

Trading LG for a 40fv meh prospect would be really bad optics.

 

They don't give a s*** about optics for Lourdes f***ing Gurriel, lmao.

 

They just traded Teoscar Hernandez (way better player) for a reliever.

 

This front office is ruthless. It's all calculated and they all have asperbergers so they don't care or understand social impact.

[connorp]

It should not be that surprising that a player coming off a 4.6 WAR season, with that talent level supported by prior MLB data, with 4 years of control remaining, would be worth slightly more than a 60 FV prospect.

 

Again, Moreno was only the "#1 prospect in baseball" because of proximity and circumstance. By talent he has always kind of been functionally equivalent to 10-15 other prospects. Look at the Fangraphs prospect board for the 2022 update it has Gunnar and Eury Perez as 65 FV and than Moreno #3 at 60 FV but 13 other dudes with the same FV.

 

One other 60 FV guy on that list has been traded - Noelvi Marte. He was traded with three other good prospects for just 1.5 years of Luis Castillo, who was coming off a 3.8 WAR season and in the midst of a 3.7 WAR season.

 

That should make a Jays fan feel better about trading a 60 FV prospect for 4 seasons of a guy like Varsho.

 

Stop glossing over the fact that Varsho is projected at 3 WAR. His mlb profile is kind of established as well. I’m not s***ing on the deal but call it for what it is, we’re not getting a 5 WAR OF in return

[Terminator]

I never liked Moreno anyway. He’s a slap hitter.

[WryNGinger]

A few rambling thoughts from todays trade.

 

If you ignore Bo at SS there will be a game that has Jansen, Berrios, Vladdy, Merrifield, Chapman, Springer, KK and Varsho on the field at the same time. That defense is f***ing insane...

 

Subtract Hernandez and Gurriel and add KK, Varsho and Mattingly to the dugout and s*** just got real down there. I am hoping they stop Vladdy from the cooler soaking after home wins as well. Jury is still out for me on the home-run jacket...

 

Did the FO get Austin Martin vibes from Moreno? Obviously Moreno has shown a lot more than Martin but I wonder if they didn't see the same upside from him as they did last off-season?

[Spanky99]

1.5 projected WAR, that's worth a bit more than his $5.4M salary

 

I'm just talking about some 40 FV prospect barely inside a team's top 20. Those guys are only worth a few million.

 

Yeah, like the pitcher we got from Seattle, Macko. Something like that.

[Laika]

Stop glossing over the fact that Varsho is projected at 3 WAR. His mlb profile is kind of established as well. I’m not s***ing on the deal but call it for what it is, we’re not getting a 5 WAR OF in return

 

His 50th percentile projection might be around 3 WAR but I would say his chances up repeating 4+ WAR seasons are pretty realistic.

[Jimcanuck]

A few rambling thoughts from todays trade.

 

If you ignore Bo at SS there will be a game that has Jansen, Berrios, Vladdy, Merrifield, Chapman, Springer, KK and Varsho on the field at the same time. That defense is f***ing insane...

 

Subtract Hernandez and Gurriel and add KK, Varsho and Mattingly to the dugout and s*** just got real down there. I am hoping they stop Vladdy from the cooler soaking after home wins as well. Jury is still out for me on the home-run jacket...

 

Did the FO get Austin Martin vibes from Moreno? Obviously Moreno has shown a lot more than Martin but I wonder if they didn't see the same upside from him as they did last off-season?

 

Not Austin Martin vibes, but they have way more data and as Laika suggested, they may have had him valued less than other teams.

 

Quite possible that Moreno's callup last season, where he played C, LF, 2B, and 3B was a showcase more than anything. Of the 3C, they may have intended to move Moreno all along.

[Dagagad]

It should not be that surprising that a player coming off a 4.6 WAR season, with that talent level supported by prior MLB data, with 4 years of control remaining, would be worth slightly more than a 60 FV prospect.

 

Again, Moreno was only the "#1 prospect in baseball" because of proximity and circumstance. By talent he has always kind of been functionally equivalent to 10-15 other prospects. Look at the Fangraphs prospect board for the 2022 update it has Gunnar and Eury Perez as 65 FV and than Moreno #3 at 60 FV but 13 other dudes with the same FV.

 

One other 60 FV guy on that list has been traded - Noelvi Marte. He was traded with three other good prospects for just 1.5 years of Luis Castillo, who was coming off a 3.8 WAR season and in the midst of a 3.7 WAR season.

 

That should make a Jays fan feel better about trading a 60 FV prospect for 4 seasons of a guy like Varsho.

 

I kind of dont trust war totals that rely that much on defense. That might not be rational.

[Dagagad]

A few rambling thoughts from todays trade.

 

If you ignore Bo at SS there will be a game that has Jansen, Berrios, Vladdy, Merrifield, Chapman, Springer, KK and Varsho on the field at the same time. That defense is f***ing insane...

 

Subtract Hernandez and Gurriel and add KK, Varsho and Mattingly to the dugout and s*** just got real down there. I am hoping they stop Vladdy from the cooler soaking after home wins as well. Jury is still out for me on the home-run jacket...

 

Did the FO get Austin Martin vibes from Moreno? Obviously Moreno has shown a lot more than Martin but I wonder if they didn't see the same upside from him as they did last off-season?

 

If watching Teo, a guy with a natural 20 grade pitch recogniton tool who through sheer hard work was able to become good enough at that to make it, didn’t help Vlad’s pitch recognition… then nothing else will.

 

Teo should have been the perfect mentor for vlad. If it didnt work, then its probably on vlad.

[Laika]

I kind of dont trust war totals that rely that much on defense. That might not be rational.

 

the nice thing about Varsho is this his OF defense has been elite in three seasons, and all metrics agree.

 

2020 155 innings 3 DRS 2 OAA 19 UZR/150

2021 338 innings 4 DRS 4 OAA 14 UZR/150

2022 920 innings 19 DRS 17 OAA 23 UZR/150

 

Note UZR/150 is a rate stat so you can compare directly but OAA and DRS are additive so you need to do some mental extrapolation to see they basically agree with 2022.

[Dagagad]

the nice thing about Varsho is this his OF defense has been elite in three seasons, and all metrics agree.

 

2020 155 innings 3 DRS 2 OAA 19 UZR/150

2021 338 innings 4 DRS 4 OAA 14 UZR/150

2022 920 innings 19 DRS 17 OAA 23 UZR/150

 

Note UZR/150 is a rate stat so you can compare directly but OAA and DRS are additive so you need to do some mental extrapolation to see they basically agree with 2022.

 

That is reassuring.

[connorp]

His 50th percentile projection might be around 3 WAR but I would say his chances up repeating 4+ WAR seasons are pretty realistic.

 

You’re just a cheap bastard with someone else’s money. They could’ve just gained 5 or 6 wins by signing Rodon lol

[Laika]

You’re just a cheap bastard with someone else’s money. They could’ve just gained 5 or 6 wins by signing Rodon lol

 

Or 0 wins

 

Carlos Rodon isn't exactly bankable production

 

 

 

 

The Jays are running a borderline luxury tax payroll and you are making cheapness accusations, lmao.

[Jimcanuck]

You’re just a cheap bastard with someone else’s money. They could’ve just gained 5 or 6 wins by signing Rodon lol

 

Rodon? Huge risk.

 

In any event, right now I would have the Jays ahead of the Yankees.

[Deadpool]

Stop glossing over the fact that Varsho is projected at 3 WAR. His mlb profile is kind of established as well. I’m not s***ing on the deal but call it for what it is, we’re not getting a 5 WAR OF in return

 

How do you figure? He has fewer than 2 seasons worth of ABs, and in the minors he had a 159 wRC+ in AA and a 161 wRC+ in AAA.

[WryNGinger]

If watching Teo, a guy with a natural 20 grade pitch recogniton tool who through sheer hard work was able to become good enough at that to make it, didn’t help Vlad’s pitch recognition… then nothing else will.

 

Teo should have been the perfect mentor for vlad. If it didnt work, then its probably on vlad.

 

Yes for sure...but um...what are you replying to?

[Dagagad]

Yes for sure...but um...what are you replying to?

 

The implication that this might change vlad’s attitude.

[connorp]

Rodon? Huge risk.

 

In any event, right now I would have the Jays ahead of the Yankees.

 

No guys/no glory. SP wins WS. I’m mostly talking in jest.. but in seriousness, Jays really didn’t go hard at 2023 WS, they improved the team a bit but it was more about long-term flexibility. So not what some of the other teams would do when they’re on the cusp of WS title, but the smart thing to do I guess. Not sexy.

 

I do like Bassitt solidifying the rotation. Of course the defense will be better but the lineup will be less scary in the playoffs, so it washes for short series’

[The Cats Ass]

They don't give a s*** about optics for Lourdes f***ing Gurriel, lmao.

 

They just traded Teoscar Hernandez (way better player) for a reliever.

 

This front office is ruthless. It's all calculated and they all have asperbergers so they don't care or understand social impact.

 

#100days

[max silver]

Stop glossing over the fact that Varsho is projected at 3 WAR. His mlb profile is kind of established as well. I’m not s***ing on the deal but call it for what it is, we’re not getting a 5 WAR OF in return

 

Varsho has only played about 2 full MLB seasons so it's far from a given what kind of value he will provide moving forward. Varsho could very well have a 5 win ceiling at his peak. The 3 WAR projection is largely based on him losing 75% of his defensive value. This seems a little unlikely to occur in a player about to play his age 26 season.

[Laika]

No guys/no glory. SP wins WS. I’m mostly talking in jest.. but in seriousness, Jays really didn’t go hard at 2023 WS, they improved the team a bit but it was more about long-term flexibility. So not what some of the other teams would do when they’re on the cusp of WS title, but the smart thing to do I guess. Not sexy.

 

I do like Bassitt solidifying the rotation. Of course the defense will be better but the lineup will be less scary in the playoffs, so it washes for short series’

 

I would reject the notion that they are doing boring long term stuff

 

Varsho fits the 2023 roster like a f***ing glove and they burned some future value to get that

 

Bassitt is very much a stabilization purchase for 2023

[connorp]

Varsho has only played about 2 full MLB seasons so it's far from a given what kind of value he will provide moving forward. Varsho could very well have a 5 win ceiling at his peak. The 3 WAR projection is largely based on him losing 75% of his defensive value. This seems a little unlikely to occur in a player about to play his age 26 season.

 

26/27 season. We’ll see. I’m not s***ing on the deal, just think you guys are pumping the tires a little heavy like we got ourselves a perennial AS

[Spanky99]

Someone pull the trigger on c-poop, dude's insufferable and dumn!

[Captain_Obvious]

26/27 season. We’ll see. I’m not s***ing on the deal, just think you guys are pumping the tires a little heavy like we got ourselves a perennial AS

 

Don't sell Varsho short. Hall of fame or bust.

[connorp]

Someone pull the trigger on c-poop, dude's insufferable and dumn!

 

It can’t all be cheerleaders and rah rah. You know sometimes these things don’t work out. You can like certain parts of a deal, yet pick at others. It’s like the Mesiah is coming, or nothing

 

I’m off to the gym, so you get you wish for tonight Spank-off. So take your dentures out and relax

[Spanky99]

It can’t all be cheerleaders and rah rah. You know sometimes these things don’t work out. You can like certain parts of a deal, yet pick at others. It’s like the Mesiah is coming, or nothing

 

I’m off to the gym, so you get you wish for tonight Spank-off. So take your dentures out and relax

 

Sure thing, botox boy. lol