Vlad and Bo Extensions

[Spanky99]

So your expectation was Vlad being the #2 hitter in baseball? And you throw s*** fits when he doesn't meet it? Lmao

 

So this response tells me you're still an imbecile, thanks.

 

I SAID GOOD DAY!

[Spanky99]

You seem to completely ignore the positional aspect of player evaluation which is a major factor.

 

Stop being so stubborn

 

He's missing everything? There's no logic.

[connorp]

He's missing everything? There's no logic.

 

Bro. He was making a point and you went off on your own about projections, and how Vlad wasn’t close to his and Bo was. Re-read his original post on the topic and explain how Vlad being further away from his projections than Bo, is relevant to anything he said

[connorp]

You guys all have like a bee hive mind thing going on

[Spanky99]

Bro. He was making a point and you went off on your own about projections, and how Vlad wasn’t close to his and Bo was. Re-read his original post on the topic and explain how Vlad being further away from his projections than Bo, is relevant to anything he said

 

What?

[John_Havok]

It was frustrating but Vlad will bounce back. He hit the piss out of the ball and got his launch angle up to a career high. His Pull% was a career high too. I wish they would break that down further into how many flyballs were pulled though.

 

Seems like he just needs to make an adjustment and he'll be back on track. Hopefully sucking like he did this year provides him with more motivation.

 

Fangraphs splits give you pulled rates for fly balls, line drives, grounders and the raw data.

 

234 grounders, 179 fly balls, 93 line drives. Total of 506.

 

Pulled fly ball rate of 25.7%. Basically 46 pulled fly balls. 19 of them HRs by my eyes and using the batter ball data from Fangraphs.

 

 

Compare to 2021

 

496 total, 222 ground balls, 181 fly balls, 93 line drives.

 

Pulled fly ball rate of 26%, 47 pulled fly balls. He hit around 20 HR it looks like depending on where the line is that stops being pull and starts being center.

 

Really looks like pulled HRs wasn’t Vlads issue this season when compared to 2021, it was all the CF, RCF and oppo tacos that drastically declined, specifically right centre and CF.

 

2023 Vlad hit 0 Hrs to right centre, 2 to CF and 5 oppo

 

2021 Vlad hit like 10 Hr to right centre, another 10 to CF, and 8 oppo.

 

Numbers aren’t perfect I suppose given where the lines get drawn, but that RCF and CF difference is massive

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/vladimir-guerrero-jr/19611/spray-charts?position=1B&type=battedball&pid2=19611&ss1=2023&se1=2023&ss2=2021&se2=2021&cht1=battedball&cht2=battedball&vs1=ALL&vs2=ALL

Edited October 13, 2023 by John_Havok

[BigCecil]

I don't see much egregious in here... BC, what gives?

 

Nothing egregious. I didn’t mean it that way. Just funny to look back on timing and numbers terms predicted. Maybe not?

[BigCecil]

Games played pro-rated, Bo meets expectations, Vlad wasn't even in the same stratosphere to his projections, lol.

 

Pro rating WAR assumes linear production no? That’s risky in baseball. Look at Bo’s 2022 or Chappy’s 2023.

[Spanky99]

Fangraphs splits give you pulled rates for fly balls, line drives, grounders and the raw data.

 

234 grounders, 179 fly balls, 93 line drives. Total of 506.

 

Pulled fly ball rate of 25.7%. Basically 46 pulled fly balls.

 

 

Compare to 2021

 

496 total, 222 ground balls, 181 fly balls, 93 line drives.

 

Pulled fly ball rate of 26%, 47 pulled fly balls.

 

Cool.

[Spanky99]

Pro rating WAR assumes linear production no? That’s risky in baseball. Look at Bo’s 2022 or Chappy’s 2023.

 

That's fair, but the final numbers with Bo and Chappy were fine in both seasons. Jays don't make the post-season without the last 6 weeks of Bo last year, Jays don't make the post-season without Chappy's hot first 6 weeks, EOS tells the story.

[Spanky99]

Nothing egregious. I didn’t mean it that way. Just funny to look back on timing and numbers terms predicted. Maybe not?

 

Nah...

[John_Havok]

Cool.

 

I put up the spray charts also. Maybe the new wall heights took one or two away, but without being able to break down those charts into home vs away it’s hard to say for sure.

 

Checking baseball savant though, very interesting on the HR vs xHR numbers from 2021 vs 2023. Based on each years batted ball profiles, he hit nearly exactly the amount of HRs he was expected to. But check the number of “Mostly Gone” HRs from 2021 vs 2023.

 

2021 - 39

2023 - 19

[BigCecil]

That's fair, but the final numbers with Bo and Chappy were fine in both seasons. Jays don't make the post-season without the last 6 weeks of Bo last year, Jays don't make the post-season without Chappy's hot first 6 weeks, EOS tells the story.

 

That’s my point. Agree on EOS. All comes out in the wash. But production is not linear. Bat could have gotten colder or hotter for the extrapolated period. Anyway. Not a big deal.

[John_Havok]

That’s my point. Agree on EOS. All comes out in the wash. But production is not linear. Bat could have gotten colder or hotter for the extrapolated period. Anyway. Not a big deal.

 

Varsho is a pretty good example also.

 

Wrc+ by month

 

68

88

108….trending up perfectly right until July

23

111

102

[Stangstag]

Varsho is a pretty good example also.

 

Wrc+ by month

 

68

88

108….trending up perfectly right until July

23

111

102

 

Truly awful in July yeesh. April bad too. Frustrating season watching him. Sometimes looked like he was drilling everything. Sometimes looked like he was swinging with his eyes closed

[Terminator]

Fangraphs splits give you pulled rates for fly balls, line drives, grounders and the raw data.

 

234 grounders, 179 fly balls, 93 line drives. Total of 506.

 

Pulled fly ball rate of 25.7%. Basically 46 pulled fly balls. 19 of them HRs by my eyes and using the batter ball data from Fangraphs.

 

 

Compare to 2021

 

496 total, 222 ground balls, 181 fly balls, 93 line drives.

 

Pulled fly ball rate of 26%, 47 pulled fly balls. He hit around 20 HR it looks like depending on where the line is that stops being pull and starts being center.

 

Really looks like pulled HRs wasn’t Vlads issue this season when compared to 2021, it was all the CF, RCF and oppo tacos that drastically declined, specifically right centre and CF.

 

2023 Vlad hit 0 Hrs to right centre, 2 to CF and 5 oppo

 

2021 Vlad hit like 10 Hr to right centre, another 10 to CF, and 8 oppo.

 

Numbers aren’t perfect I suppose given where the lines get drawn, but that RCF and CF difference is massive

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/vladimir-guerrero-jr/19611/spray-charts?position=1B&type=battedball&pid2=19611&ss1=2023&se1=2023&ss2=2021&se2=2021&cht1=battedball&cht2=battedball&vs1=ALL&vs2=ALL

 

Thank you! This is interesting. The board just assumed he was hitting too many fly balls to CF but that’s not necessarily true. I wonder why his homers to CF and RF dropped?

[John_Havok]

Thank you! This is interesting. The board just assumed he was hitting too many fly balls to CF but that’s not necessarily true. I wonder why his homers to CF and RF dropped?

 

Yeah the % of fly balls hit to CF only went up by 1.5%, fly balls to RF for him went down by about the same 1.5%. I’d have to do a deeper dive and see what the average distances were, but just looking at it visually it seems that overall distance might be down slightly, but there’s still a big cluster in RCF in 2023 that looked like they were possible HRs that ended up as doubles.

 

Which park he was in at the time is likely a factor.

[Dick_Pole]

It was frustrating but Vlad will bounce back. He hit the piss out of the ball and got his launch angle up to a career high. His Pull% was a career high too. I wish they would break that down further into how many flyballs were pulled though.

 

Seems like he just needs to make an adjustment and he'll be back on track. Hopefully sucking like he did this year provides him with more motivation.

 

The problem with this reasoning is assuming that he thinks he had a bad year. Team lead in HR and RBI. Back when his dad was playing that would get you MVP consideration.

[Dick_Pole]

Yeah the % of fly balls hit to CF only went up by 1.5%, fly balls to RF for him went down by about the same 1.5%. I’d have to do a deeper dive and see what the average distances were, but just looking at it visually it seems that overall distance might be down slightly, but there’s still a big cluster in RCF in 2023 that looked like they were possible HRs that ended up as doubles.

 

Which park he was in at the time is likely a factor.

 

Shapiro playing 4D chess with the renos, intentionally gaslighting his own players to try to sign them to cheap extensions then pull the fences in 10 feet.

[BatFlip]

Shapiro playing 4D chess with the renos, intentionally gaslighting his own players to try to sign them to cheap extensions then pull the fences in 10 feet.

 

Yup, they'll push the fences out the moment they have all those cheap extensions in place. Evil genius.

[John_Havok]

Looking at Vlads expected HRs by stadium... 2021 he would have hit 57 in Cinci, this season 36 if all his batted balls were in that stadium.

[Stangstag]

Looking at Vlads expected HRs by stadium... 2021 he would have hit 57 in Cinci, this season 36 if all his batted balls were in that stadium.

 

Hmmm. I guess its not so much the homeruns, but just extra base hits in general that are way down. He hits a bunch of singles.

 

Im sure nobody would complain if Vlad was hitting 26 homers with 50 doubles and a .300 average.

[polar bear]

it was frustrating but vlad will bounce back. He hit the piss out of the ball and got his launch angle up to a career high. His pull% was a career high too. I wish they would break that down further into how many flyballs were pulled though.

 

Seems like he just needs to make an adjustment and he'll be back on track. Hopefully sucking like he did this year provides him with more motivation.

 

lol!

[Terminator]

The problem with this reasoning is assuming that he thinks he had a bad year. Team lead in HR and RBI. Back when his dad was playing that would get you MVP consideration.

 

There is no guarantee he bounces back but I think it's a good bet to think that he will.

 

I'm sure he knows 26 homers isn't a good year for him.

 

How much he bounces back we shall see. Doubtful to reach 2021 but 2022 should be attainable. I'm hoping for somewhere in between.

Edited October 13, 2023 by Terminator

[John_Havok]

There is no guarantee he bounces back but I think it's a good bet to think that he will.

 

I'm sure he knows 26 homers isn't a good year for him.

 

How much he bounces back we shall see. Doubtful to reach 2021 but 2022 should be attainable. I'm hoping for somewhere in between.

 

No doubt, with his talents he should be able to sneeze in the batters box and hit 20+. He’s got all the talent, I just think his general approach needs refining. And I don’t mean going oppo more or pulling more in general, just the way he goes about his PAs.

 

Look for a pitch in a location and if you don’t get it, don’t swing. Seems basic but that’s clearly not what he’s up there thinking most PAs going by his swing decisions.

 

One thing he needs to tighten up is his tendency to swing at the next pitch virtually every single time he gets a borderline strike called against him. Countless times this season a pitcher will get a favourable call outside on a fastball and then throws one even further out and Vlad was a guaranteed swing. He has to figure that part out as it’s a very easy thing for pitchers to exploit

[Terminator]

One thing he needs to tighten up is his tendency to swing at the next pitch virtually every single time he gets a borderline strike called against him. Countless times this season a pitcher will get a favourable call outside on a fastball and then throws one even further out and Vlad was a guaranteed swing. He has to figure that part out as it’s a very easy thing for pitchers to exploit

 

Lol that is so true. He's so immature. When he's flustered he just stats hacking away.

[wilko]

Lol that is so true. He's so immature. When he's flustered he just stats hacking away.

 

I'm not sure if that aspect can change. Maybe with age?

[Stangstag]

There is no guarantee he bounces back but I think it's a good bet to think that he will.

 

I'm sure he knows 26 homers isn't a good year for him.

 

How much he bounces back we shall see. Doubtful to reach 2021 but 2022 should be attainable. I'm hoping for somewhere in between.

 

Very interested to see what projections will look like for him next season

[Terminator]

I'm not sure if that aspect can change. Maybe with age?

 

It should get better.

 

He's still pretty young. Players often have down years in their career for a variety of reasons. Randomness (my new favorite word) can play a factor, some sort of nagging injury, maybe he was getting exploited on something that he can fix, etc.

 

Unfortunately he doesn't look like the Hall of Famer that we were all hoping for but he can still be an All-Star caliber player (a real one not a fake one like he was this year) moving forward.

[Terminator]

Very interested to see what projections will look like for him next season

 

Same. I bet the projections are pretty darn good still.