Toronto Blue Jays Roster Discussion (2022)

[connorp]

Was everybody on the Astros a star?

 

Pretty sure they had a few useless players. Gurriel was below replacement level and started all year. Guys like Dubon and Aledmys Diaz suck.

 

Very NPC of you imo

[Spanky99]

That’s like putting a s***** player in a position to start a season and think when he does good 1/10 that you were smart not to sign a star

 

See ^^^^

[connorp]

I mean you guys all the time preach clutch isn’t a repeatable skill. See Rosario this year.

 

All you can do is put your best team on the field and hope for the best

[connorp]

See ^^^^

 

You’re being dumn. How do you draft your post-season fantasy team? You pick all the best players. Of course you don’t know what’s going to happen

[Spanky99]

I mean you guys all the time preach clutch isn’t a repeatable skill. See Rosario this year.

 

All you can do is put your best team on the field and hope for the best

 

Do you think Toronto isn't trying to put the best product on the field? Give your head a shake, dumbass.

[connorp]

Do you think Toronto isn't trying to put the best product on the field? Give your head a shake, dumbass.

 

You’re going somewhere else with the discussion

[Spanky99]

You’re being dumn. How do you draft your post-season fantasy team? You pick all the best players. Of course you don’t know what’s going to happen

 

See ^^^^

[Laika]

I mean you guys all the time preach clutch isn’t a repeatable skill. See Rosario this year.

 

All you can do is put your best team on the field and hope for the best

 

Yes. Put your highest projected WAR team on the field.

[connorp]

News flash: teams aren’t paying Verlander $40+m for nothing. They’re trying to give themselves more balls for the roulette wheel

[Laika]

News flash: teams aren’t paying Verlander $40+m for nothing. They’re trying to give themselves more balls for the roulette wheel

 

Yes, they are paying him for his projected WAR

[connorp]

Yes. Put your highest projected WAR team on the field.

 

For the regular season, sure. But can’t you understand how a minimal increase in runs saved means more over a full season than a playoff series. Or that an RP is going to see their value change because 1) if they’re available every game that makes a quantifiable WAR difference, and 2) their skills are going to be much more impactful on a single game than some minuscule defense value that needs 162 games to take shape

[connorp]

Yes, they are paying him for his projected WAR

 

Again, no. When Clemens only wanted to pitch one month to ramp up for the post-season, everyone was trying to outbid everyone for him

[connorp]

Yes, they are paying him for his projected WAR

 

You aren’t smarter than league GMs. Sorry, you see these closers and RPs get contracts and it’s not for WAR. I’m sorry you don’t like it and only enjoy the TB model.

[Jimcanuck]

For the regular season, sure. But can’t you understand how a minimal increase in runs saved means more over a full season than a playoff series. Or that an RP is going to see their value change because 1) if they’re available every game that makes a quantifiable WAR difference, and 2) their skills are going to be much more impactful on a single game than some minuscule defense value that needs 162 games to take shape

 

Variability of outcomes is higher in a short playoff series, in other words more luck is involved in the outcome, and the effect of player quality on the outcome is reduced. Over 162 games the effect of luck is minimized, and whether a team makes the playoffs depends primarily on the quality of their players (and injuries of course).

 

RP don't become more valuable in a playoff series. BUT, the results can lead to an erroneous perception (i.e., yours) of the impact of RP. Fact is it is just statistical noise.

[connorp]

Variability of outcomes is higher in a short playoff series, in other words more luck is involved in the outcome, and the effect of player quality on the outcome is reduced. Over 162 games the effect of luck is minimized, and whether a team makes the playoffs depends primarily on the quality of their players (and injuries of course).

 

RP don't become more valuable in a playoff series. BUT, the results can lead to an erroneous perception (i.e., yours) of the impact of RP. Fact is it is just statistical noise.

 

I’ll circle back and use your guys argument. You watched the Jays playoffs games the last two years, right?

[connorp]

Listen, I’m sure no team likes spending money on RP. It’s certainly not optimal and so I understand why you hate these facts so… but it is what it is and it’s why guys like Montero get paid what they do… by teams that have the luxury of blowing cash on it

[connorp]

For a team like the Jays, sure I don’t want them giving out any contracts like that because then it’ll effect who else they can pursue.

[glory]

 

Heyman is a Boras mouthpiece, so take it for what you will, but if Bellinger wants anywhere near 1/20, then hopefully the Jays pass.

[Laika]

You aren’t smarter than league GMs. Sorry, you see these closers and RPs get contracts and it’s not for WAR. I’m sorry you don’t like it and only enjoy the TB model.

 

Or the public version of WAR is wrong

 

Teams at certain points do of course try to buy playoff wins but that's still WAR!!! It's PWAR. Just because it's not on Fangraphs doesn't mean it does not exist.

[L54]

I would not give Belly 20M

 

Interesting Mattingly connection never thought of that

 

I don’t think you get 20M on a prove it deal. Semien got the QO but he hadn’t been s*** for three years

[Laika]

If any team wanted to pay Bellinger $20M they would have just traded a D prospect to LA for him.

 

I expect him to get like $12M. And there are probably 7 teams offering him that same deal.

[connorp]

Or the public version of WAR is wrong

 

Teams at certain points do of course try to buy playoff wins but that's still WAR!!! It's PWAR. Just because it's not on Fangraphs doesn't mean it does not exist.

 

We found common ground

[wilko]

 

Heyman is a Boras mouthpiece, so take it for what you will, but if Bellinger wants anywhere near 1/20, then hopefully the Jays pass.

 

I'd sign Bellinger for a 1 year desl. Not for 20 Million.

[The Cats Ass]

I’ll circle back and use your guys argument. You watched the Jays playoffs games the last two years, right?

 

If we had Kiermaier in CF he calls off Bo and makes that catch. We go on to win that game, Game 3, and the World Series.

[connorp]

If we had Kiermaier in CF he calls off Bo and makes that catch. We go on to win that game, Game 3, and the World Series.

 

You’re suggesting Springer is a beta and KK is an alpha?

[jaysblue]

I would not give Belly 20M

 

Interesting Mattingly connection never thought of that

 

I don’t think you get 20M on a prove it deal. Semien got the QO but he hadn’t been s*** for three years

 

I thought of the Mattingly connection but Bellinger wasn't up in the Majors when he was manager so didn't think anything of it.

 

Same here. Most I would go on Belly is 15M. He should settles somewhere for $12-15M. Anything close to $20M for a guy who has struggled for three seasons is asking too much.

[Stangstag]

I’ll circle back and use your guys argument. You watched the Jays playoffs games the last two years, right?

 

Jays weren’t in the playoffs the last two years.

 

Try again

[Stangstag]

I mean you guys all the time preach clutch isn’t a repeatable skill. See Rosario this year.

 

All you can do is put your best team on the field and hope for the best

 

No s*** Sherlock

[Stangstag]

News flash: teams aren’t paying Verlander $40+m for nothing. They’re trying to give themselves more balls for the roulette wheel

 

Ok so by this logic, Aaron Judge shouldn’t get over 100 mil. His playoff numbers the last few years have been bad

[Stangstag]

 

Heyman is a Boras mouthpiece, so take it for what you will, but if Bellinger wants anywhere near 1/20, then hopefully the Jays pass.

 

Yeah 20 million is way way too much for Bellinger