Toronto Blue Jays Roster Discussion (2022)

[Omar]

Sign me up for Bellinger. Like I said, I care more about above average defense than I do about offense at CF. Find sluggers through the other positions.

 

Where are we going to replace Teo’s production from? If this deal is consummated do you really see Atkins going for another impact bat? Doubtful. I would rather Nimmo even if it is an overpay.

[jaysblue]

Where are we going to replace Teo’s production from? If this deal is consummated do you really see Atkins going for another impact bat? Doubtful. I would rather Nimmo even if it is an overpay.

 

You hope Vladdy rebounds in 2023, and Lourdes could provide some more pop. Along with what Bellinger could provide offensively.

 

Signing another bat would be nice to play a corner and DH, like Michael Brantley.

 

Ideally, if they could trade for a young outfielder under control, that would be best.

[Jays24]

Where are we going to replace Teo’s production from? If this deal is consummated do you really see Atkins going for another impact bat? Doubtful. I would rather Nimmo even if it is an overpay.

 

Well of course I'd like the player who should be better next year but I would settle for Bellinger.

 

Sign me up for players rejecting long term deals for "bet on yourself" 1 year deals. More often than not, these guys have one of their best years the following season. They typically spend the entire offseason focused as hell. Look no further than Ray/Semien.

[Dick_Pole]

Where are we going to replace Teo’s production from? If this deal is consummated do you really see Atkins going for another impact bat? Doubtful. I would rather Nimmo even if it is an overpay.

 

Ideally? Guerrero. The variance in WAR between his 2021 and 2022 seasons is basically Hernandez. This team had six regulars above 110 OPS+ excluding Hernandez last years plus Jansen, Moreno and Merrifield who combined PA equate to a 7th regular above 110 OPS+ production. The team doesn't NEED to replace his bat like most are saying. They do need steady OF defense.

[Omar]

Well of course I'd like the player who should be better next year but I would settle for Bellinger.

 

Sign me up for players rejecting long term deals for "bet on yourself" 1 year deals. More often than not, these guys have one of their best years the following season. They typically spend the entire offseason focused as hell. Look no further than Ray/Semien.

 

There’s that. If he bets on himself to have a great year like Semien for a big payday maybe he puts up some decent numbers. Let’s say he doubles his war from 2022 and puts up 2.5, not good enough for a win now team like the Jays. I had big hopes we would sign Nimmo. Always the bridesmaid.

[Brownie19]

Where are we going to replace Teo’s production from? If this deal is consummated do you really see Atkins going for another impact bat? Doubtful. I would rather Nimmo even if it is an overpay.

 

We were 2nd in the AL and 4th in MLB in runs scored last year (even when Vlad underperformed). So we don't 100% 'need' to replace his production. The defensive upgrade with Belly in CF and Springer in RF may also save enough runs to make up for Teo's lost offense.

[Brownie19]

There’s that. If he bets on himself to have a great year like Semien for a big payday maybe he puts up some decent numbers. Let’s say he doubles his war from 2022 and puts up 2.5, not good enough for a win now team like the Jays. I had big hopes we would sign Nimmo. Always the bridesmaid.

 

There is a ton of risk in Nimmo's profile. You can't deny or ignore that.

[Omar]

There is a ton of risk in Nimmo's profile. You can't deny or ignore that.

 

Sure but maybe some asterisk worthy injuries. Collapsed lung, Covid shortened season, disc from hitting the wall. Some bad luck there.

[Omar]

It may not matter if Vladdy finds himself. Is it 2021 Vlad or 2022 Vlad? Somewhere in between? Will the real Vladdy please stand up.

 

edit. Then again if we get Bellinger to the playoffs….

[Stangstag]

I think they need atleast one long term Outfield option that’s not George Springer. And theres definitely trade options. Jays are in position to do both long term and short term things in order to bolster the roster.

 

Agreed. Gurriel will be gone next year and then we have 2 open spots in the OF. It would be ideal to trade/sign someone that will be here long-term.

[Krylian]

Where are we going to replace Teo’s production from? If this deal is consummated do you really see Atkins going for another impact bat? Doubtful. I would rather Nimmo even if it is an overpay.

 

Depends on what the $$ is for Bellinger. I'm hoping he's the Tapia replacement and the Teo replacement is still coming

[Stangstag]

Ideal scenario with the OF is probably trade for one of Arizona’s CF and then sign Conforto to a 1 year deal if that’s available. Conforto/Lourdes/Springer split time at the corners and DH

[jaysblue]

There is a ton of risk in Nimmo's profile. You can't deny or ignore that.

 

Yeah as much as I like Nimmo, when I start hearing 5-6 years and close to $100M or more, doesn't sit comfortable with me.

[Dick_Pole]

Isn't understanding that WAR is WAR wherever it comes from part of bluejaysmessageboard101? What's with this sudden obsession over replacing Hernandez's offensive production all of a sudden? The Jays have plenty of candidates to put up an .800 OPS. A 2.5 WAR output from Bellinger purely from defense and baserunning is as good as Hernandez slugging his way there. I'd argue more valuable because the Jays need defense and baserunning a lot more than another guy who can tally up the score at Fenway.

[Terminator]

There is a ton of risk in Nimmo's profile. You can't deny or ignore that.

 

What is the risk with his profile? He seems like he has an incredibly high floor due to his OBP skills. He can put up 5 WAR with just 15 jacks, for example. I think he'd be a good signing if it's around 4 or 5 years around 20-25 mil AAV. The only thing I'd want more info on is his defense, is he REALLY above average in CF or is that just metric noise? I suppose I'd want to know more about his injuries as well. Nothing seems to be a chronic concern though.

[Terminator]

It seems the big knock on Nimmo is his power but if he had power he would be a 200 million dollar free agent, he wouldn't be a 100 million dollar free agent.

[Stangstag]

Isn't understanding that WAR is WAR wherever it comes from part of bluejaysmessageboard101? What's with this sudden obsession over replacing Hernandez's offensive production all of a sudden? The Jays have plenty of candidates to put up an .800 OPS. A 2.5 WAR output from Bellinger purely from defense and baserunning is as good as Hernandez slugging his way there. I'd argue more valuable because the Jays need defense and baserunning a lot more than another guy who can tally up the score at Fenway.

 

I think people are more worried about a scenario where Teo has a 4-5 WAR walk year. Definitely within the realm of possibility for him if you consider 2022 a “down year”

[RobinThicc]

lmao

 

Lol. Wouldnt mind Bellinger but randomly expecting him to be decent at the plate would be crazy. Been garbage there for years, not really sure he's shown anything that would suggest he's turning it around.

[Brownie19]

What is the risk with his profile? He seems like he has an incredibly high floor due to his OBP skills. He can put up 5 WAR with just 15 jacks, for example. I think he'd be a good signing if it's around 4 or 5 years around 20-25 mil AAV. The only thing I'd want more info on is his defense, is he REALLY above average in CF or is that just metric noise? I suppose I'd want to know more about his injuries as well. Nothing seems to be a chronic concern though.

 

Entering his Age 30 season with just passable defense already in CF. Has been injury prone and missed a lot of time over during his career. BB% dropped off significantly last year (18.1% in 2019, down to 10.5% last year) - albeit with a lower K% also. Don't get me wrong, I would LOVE Nimmo for the next 2-3 years, but by 2024 we might be talking about finding his replacement in CF already (ala Springer) and I don't love the idea of locking up LF and RF with $20M+ players.

[jaysblue]

What is the risk with his profile? He seems like he has an incredibly high floor due to his OBP skills. He can put up 5 WAR with just 15 jacks, for example. I think he'd be a good signing if it's around 4 or 5 years around 20-25 mil AAV. The only thing I'd want more info on is his defense, is he REALLY above average in CF or is that just metric noise? I suppose I'd want to know more about his injuries as well. Nothing seems to be a chronic concern though.

 

I just think a player like him won't age well and he'll likely have to move off CF. Reminds me a bit like Dexter Fowler. I think over the next two-three years Nimmo should be fine, but after that I'm not so sure.

[Spanky99]

Lol. Wouldnt mind Bellinger but randomly expecting him to be decent at the plate would be crazy. Been garbage there for years, not really sure he's shown anything that would suggest he's turning it around.

 

He hasn't, he's been terrible for awhile now. I get the defense and upside side of it, but if the money's right and doesn't hamper more moves. I'd be down for that.

[Terminator]

Entering his Age 30 season with just passable defense already in CF. Has been injury prone and missed a lot of time over during his career. BB% dropped off significantly last year (18.1% in 2019, down to 10.5% last year) - albeit with a lower K% also. Don't get me wrong, I would LOVE Nimmo for the next 2-3 years, but by 2024 we might be talking about finding his replacement in CF already (ala Springer) and I don't love the idea of locking up LF and RF with $20M+ players.

 

Yeah if his defense is passable in CF (which I take to mean below average but playable heading into next year) then that makes sense. But if it's near elite like statcast is giving him for the past two years then that's a whole different ball game on a 5 year deal with him.

[RobinThicc]

Morosi says he'd be "somewhat surprised" if the Jays dont sign one of Nimmo or Bellinger.

 

 

One of these things is not like the other lol

[wilko]

Morosi says he'd be "somewhat surprised" if the Jays dont sign one of Nimmo or Bellinger.

 

 

One of these things is not like the other lol

 

"Somewhat surprised"

 

[jaysblue]

Definitely will be a lot of suitors for Bellinger. Like JPM said, he could sign with a rebuilding team, build up his value, and force them to trade him at the deadline removing the QO.

[glory]

Lol. Wouldnt mind Bellinger but randomly expecting him to be decent at the plate would be crazy. Been garbage there for years, not really sure he's shown anything that would suggest he's turning it around.

 

If Bellinger can be a 90-100 wRC+ guy with his defense and base running, he'd be a pretty valuable player. Will the shift changes, Rogers Centre, and maybe some better health (if he's still battling issues) get him to that level? I have no idea, but as long as that's the expectation and not 2019 Bellinger, then it's probably worth the gamble on a one year deal.

 

But yes, there is real risk of him being the same guy he's been in 2021-22. He wouldn't be available if there wasn't that risk.

[Terminator]

If we are going to go the Bellinger route I think we'd strongly have to consider Kiermaier instead. He very well may be the better hitter than Bellinger and he's probably a better baserunner and I'm almost certain he's a better fielder. He's older but it doesn't really matter on a 1 year deal. I guess he's got more health concerns but I bet he signs for significantly less and I'm not sure he's the worse player.

[keggy]

Honestly a Bellinger/Merrifield platoon probably makes up for all of Teoscar's 2022 WAR. Positive defense + baserunning and league average hitting from your CF is pretty valuable.

[Brownie19]

If we are going to go the Bellinger route I think we'd strongly have to consider Kiermaier instead. He very well may be the better hitter than Bellinger and he's probably a better baserunner and I'm almost certain he's a better fielder. He's older but it doesn't really matter on a 1 year deal. I guess he's got more health concerns but I bet he signs for significantly less and I'm not sure he's the worse player.

 

Simply put, he also doesn't have the upside that Belly has.

 

The Jays need to do their homework here and see what the chances are that Belly's regained the flexibility he needs to regain his stroke. This is similar to what happened with Chapman last year. He was further removed from his surgery and this allowed him to return back closer to the player he was in 2018-2019. Did the Jays know something the A's didn't? Did they just get lucky? Who knows.

 

But of course, if it was obvious Belly is regaining the tools he needs to be a good/great hitter again, then the Dodgers tender him - so there's probably a very good chance he's still hampered and unlikely to bounce back at the dish. Or maybe the answer is that nobody knows - or the Dodgers weren't ready to risk that he'd get there with another full offseason of work. Given all the advancements in swing training, you'd think someone with the talent of Belly would be able to work his tail off and reinvent himself at the dish. They have all the ability in the world to prove if they are getting the right results.

 

This is a very interesting development to watch this offseason and into next year.

[Omar]

Bellinger will be another project to add to the list of,

 

Vladdy’s launch angle.

Bo’s defence.

Kikichi

Ryu, if he comes back in August.

Berrios bounce back season.

 

The list grows.