General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2022)

[Laika]

I see it more like 25 for Nimmo over 5 and 1/9 for KK.

 

I don't see how KK would ever settle for 1/9 in this market. There are almost no proper CFers available out there. He has a lot of leverage.

[glory]

I'm starting to hope that instead of making a splash on Nimmo we do something more like sign Kiermaier to play CF and have Conforto brought in to play LF. Potentially some marginal upgrades on Teo with Conforto and KK in a full season likely out performs Gurriel. Worse offensively but much better defensively. I just can't imagine how much they would run.

 

The only issue with that plan is that it would mean Springer would be the only OF on the roster beyond 2023 as Gurriel, Conforto, KK, and Merrifield (if he counts as one) would all be free agents in that scenario. I guess you could offer more than one year to KK, but not sure that's the best idea for a 1-2 WAR player in his mid 30's whose value is entirely defense.

 

As much as I would dread what a Nimmo contract would look like, right now he probably makes the most sense for the Jays if the intention is to win within the next 3 years. There doesn't seem to be any traction with a Vlad/Bo extension, and this winter's FA market is probably dissuading them from signing anything now. Nimmo maximizes 2023-25 wins more than anyone else realistically available unless the Jays want to sign Correa, which I don't see happening. One year stopgaps would make sense if they want to spend a ton to extend Vlad and Bo right now, but if that's not happening and if they have a feeling it may not happen at all, then spending big on Nimmo might actually be reasonable. You're not getting this type of window again for a while. I'm not saying I want them to sign Nimmo, just that you could argue it makes the most sense for where the team is.

[max silver]

The only issue with that plan is that it would mean Springer would be the only OF on the roster beyond 2023 as Gurriel, Conforto, KK, and Merrifield (if he counts as one) would all be free agents in that scenario. I guess you could offer more than one year to KK, but not sure that's the best idea for a 1-2 WAR player in his mid 30's whose value is entirely defense.

 

As much as I would dread what a Nimmo contract would look like, right now he probably makes the most sense for the Jays if the intention is to win within the next 3 years. There doesn't seem to be any traction with a Vlad/Bo extension, and this winter's FA market is probably dissuading them from signing anything now. Nimmo maximizes 2023-25 wins more than anyone else realistically available unless the Jays want to sign Correa, which I don't see happening. One year stopgaps would make sense if they want to spend a ton to extend Vlad and Bo right now, but if that's not happening and if they have a feeling it may not happen at all, then spending big on Nimmo might actually be reasonable. You're not getting this type of window again for a while. I'm not saying I want them to sign Nimmo, just that you could argue it makes the most sense for where the team is.

 

I'm fully aboard the sign Nimmo train. The team has very little outfield depth working their way up through the minor leagues, and the only high upside prospects they have are a very long ways away. Nimmo would give the team two legitimately above average outfielders for the duration of the time that the team has Vlad and Bo under control. Aside from working a trade to bring in a young outfielder I see no path forward aside from the patchwork approach in the outfield each offseason.

[wamco]

I don't see how KK would ever settle for 1/9 in this market. There are almost no proper CFers available out there. He has a lot of leverage.

 

I saw 1/6 projections b4 the off-season

[Laika]

I saw 1/6 projections b4 the off-season

 

seems dumb but i dunno

[Stangstag]

The only issue with that plan is that it would mean Springer would be the only OF on the roster beyond 2023 as Gurriel, Conforto, KK, and Merrifield (if he counts as one) would all be free agents in that scenario. I guess you could offer more than one year to KK, but not sure that's the best idea for a 1-2 WAR player in his mid 30's whose value is entirely defense.

 

As much as I would dread what a Nimmo contract would look like, right now he probably makes the most sense for the Jays if the intention is to win within the next 3 years. There doesn't seem to be any traction with a Vlad/Bo extension, and this winter's FA market is probably dissuading them from signing anything now. Nimmo maximizes 2023-25 wins more than anyone else realistically available unless the Jays want to sign Correa, which I don't see happening. One year stopgaps would make sense if they want to spend a ton to extend Vlad and Bo right now, but if that's not happening and if they have a feeling it may not happen at all, then spending big on Nimmo might actually be reasonable. You're not getting this type of window again for a while. I'm not saying I want them to sign Nimmo, just that you could argue it makes the most sense for where the team is.

 

Yeah even if Nimmo only plays CF for a year or two, you'd think Nimmo/Springer at the corners for 25 mil each isn't necessarily a bad idea. Both should still have above-average defense at the corners and likely stay above the 115wRC mark for the duration of their contracts. We have maybe 1 potentially exciting OF prospect in the org right now and he isn't very close.

[glory]

I'm fully aboard the sign Nimmo train. The team has very little outfield depth working their way up through the minor leagues, and the only high upside prospects they have are a very long ways away. Nimmo would give the team two legitimately above average outfielders for the duration of the time that the team has Vlad and Bo under control. Aside from working a trade to bring in a young outfielder I see no path forward aside from the patchwork approach in the outfield each offseason.

 

Yeah if the team had any minor league prospects on the horizon you could play the risk averse card, but the team practically has no position player prospects aside from Barger who look like they can contribute in 2023-25 barring Orelvis learning how to make contact. Nimmo is probably going to cost something like 6/140 in this market, but as mentioned it might be worth it for the Jays more than most teams given their lack of anything resembling outfielders in the org. Even Springer is probably going to DH a bunch when he's on the field, so the Jays badly need help there.

[Jimcanuck]

Biggest chip the Jays have is the catcher surplus.

 

It's just Murphy and one of Jansen/Kirk/Moreno for multiple teams pursuing a catcher (unless they settle for the likes of the parking lot pervert).

 

Offseason is dynamic, and who knows, maybe the Jays now need to use the chip to get either a CF or an SP, and when that happens it determines whether they pursue an OF like Nimmo or an SP like Wacha

[Jonn]

It’s weird because on the one hand I love that Nimmo gets on base and hits lefty. But his injury history albeit flukey stuff is concerning. Hes played like 2 full seasons in 7 years. He also might be better suited for a corner and the Jays are gonna have to pay out the ass for him. Like it’s looking like they might have to give him more than they gave Springer and I don’t think that’s a strong play.

[The_DH]

Yeah even if Nimmo only plays CF for a year or two, you'd think Nimmo/Springer at the corners for 25 mil each isn't necessarily a bad idea. Both should still have above-average defense at the corners and likely stay above the 115wRC mark for the duration of their contracts. We have maybe 1 potentially exciting OF prospect in the org right now and he isn't very close.

 

I'm starting to think this way: Nimmo plays CF this year and eventually moves to LF, Springer in RF and then some up and comer in CF. Could be a long term plan.

[Jimcanuck]

Wish Bo would take reps in CF. Plenty of good fielding SS have played CF for their MLB club and are listed as SS/CF. And Bo isn't even good at fielding SS.

 

Bo would provide good CF range, but the arm would be below average.

 

Swanson anyone? Outstanding D.

[wilko]

I'm starting to think this way: Nimmo plays CF this year and eventually moves to LF, Springer in RF and then some up and comer in CF. Could be a long term plan.

 

Jays have an up and cummer for CF?

[The_DH]

Jays have an up and cummer for CF?

 

Not yet.

[Stangstag]

Wish Bo would take reps in CF. Plenty of good fielding SS have played CF for their MLB club and are listed as SS/CF. And Bo isn't even good at fielding SS.

 

Bo would provide good CF range, but the arm would be below average.

 

Swanson anyone? Outstanding D.

 

Swanson is going to be a bad contract. Move Bo to CF and sign Correa

[Jonn]

Correa would definitely be the play on the open market. Move Bo off short. Bring in Correa to play gold glove Defense at Short and the upside to hit 30-35 Homeruns. For the next several years.

 

Bo said in the past he would be willing to move off SS if the right kind of player was brought in. I don’t know if CF is the play for him. Second Base makes more sense. And use the Catcher surplus to address the OF. It would be great if Bo could play CF just hard to imagine that. He loves running into the Outfield so maybe he would be down.

[wilko]

Correa would definitely be the play on the open market. Move Bo off short. Bring in Correa to play gold glove Defense at Short and the upside to hit 30-35 Homeruns. For the next several years.

 

Bo said in the past he would be willing to move off SS if the right kind of player was brought in. I don’t know if CF is the play for him. Second Base makes more sense. And use the Catcher surplus to address the OF. It would be great if Bo could play CF just hard to imagine that. He loves running into the Outfield so maybe he would be down.

 

Why didn't he move when Semen was signed?

[Jimcanuck]

Swanson is going to be a bad contract. Move Bo to CF and sign Correa

 

Actually I think Swanson is going to be the epitome of consistency.

[Eat My Shatkins]

Correa > Bo (IMO)

 

If Bo won't sign a long term, somewhat team friendly deal I would absolutely love to see them sign Correa and then trade Bo for a really good young starting pitcher and/or outfielder (preferably CF).

 

Sign Correa

 

Trade Bo (94.1 value) to AZ for Carroll (77.8 value) and Jameson (12.5 value)

[Jimcanuck]

Correa > Bo (IMO)

 

If Bo won't sign a long term, somewhat team friendly deal I would absolutely love to see them sign Correa and then trade Bo for a really good young starting pitcher and/or outfielder (preferably CF).

 

Sign Correa

 

Trade Bo (94.1 value) to AZ for Carroll (77.8 value) and Jameson (12.5 value)

 

D'Backs won't do that. Where do these values come from? Do they take into account years of control?

[Eat My Shatkins]

D'Backs won't do that. Where do these values come from? Do they take into account years of control?

 

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trade-simulator/

[Jimcanuck]

Swanson one of the best defensive shortstops in MLB (top 5). Swanson at SS, Bo in CF, and Springer in RF instead of Teo probably worth +5 WAR or something for defense alone.

 

Fits the run prevention mantra.

[max silver]

Why didn't he move when Semen was signed?

 

The team ultimately made this decision for him. The thinking was that it wasn't worth moving Bo off of the position for a player that was likely to be a one year rental. If I recall correctly they said that he could only be moved off of short stop once, as sending him back to the position after moving would be incredibly hard to do. It would be far more prudent until they are completely convinced he is unable to be the long term answer at short stop. The results of the last two seasons aren't exactly encouraging, but I still think Bo has the necessary tools to man short stop effectively. What remains up in the air is whether he can ever develop the kind of consistency that is required. He has had extended stretches were he plays a really good short stop, but then he goes through even longer periods of time where he struggles to make the routine plays.

 

Bo was reportedly willing to move off short stop years ago for the likes of Didi Gregorius to allow the team to upgrade around him, I just don't think this idea that Bo has been refusing to move from the position has any kind of proof behind and is rife with assumptions.

[Stangstag]

The team ultimately made this decision for him. The thinking was that it wasn't worth moving Bo off of the position for a player that was likely to be a one year rental. If I recall correctly they said that he could only be moved off of short stop once, as sending him back to the position after moving would be incredibly hard to do. It would be far more prudent until they are completely convinced he is unable to be the long term answer at short stop. The results of the last two seasons aren't exactly encouraging, but I still think Bo has the necessary tools to man short stop effectively. What remains up in the air is whether he can ever develop the kind of consistency that is required. He has had extended stretches were he plays a really good short stop, but then he goes through even longer periods of time where he struggles to make the routine plays.

 

Bo was reportedly willing to move off short stop years ago for the likes of Didi Gregorius to allow the team to upgrade around him, I just don't think this idea that Bo has been refusing to move from the position has any kind of proof behind and is rife with assumptions.

 

It was also part of Semien’s whole thing to market himself as flexible SS/2B to open up his options for free agency. Does Texas sign him to that deal if he had played SS instead of 2B?? No, because they signed Seager.

 

If Semien signed a multi-year deal for the Jays I have no doubt he would have been the SS and Bo would have been moved to 2B

[Jimcanuck]

Bo already is below average range at SS despite having good sprint speed. He's no long term answer at SS, he'll likely be terrible by the time he is 27 or 28, with multiple groundballs every game getting into the OF that a guy like Swanson gets to.

[Laika]

Bo already is below average range at SS despite having good sprint speed. He's no long term answer at SS, he'll likely be terrible by the time he is 27 or 28.

 

he's already terrible, by every measure

 

the only things keeping him at SS are:

 

1) office politics

2) the ephemeral promise of youth

[max silver]

It was also part of Semien’s whole thing to market himself as flexible SS/2B to open up his options for free agency. Does Texas sign him to that deal if he had played SS instead of 2B?? No, because they signed Seager.

 

If Semien signed a multi-year deal for the Jays I have no doubt he would have been the SS and Bo would have been moved to 2B

 

I think you've hit the nail on the head here. I don't think it would necessarily have been a great move if this happened however, as Semien's defensive metrics when he played short stop as a Blue Jay were actually worse on a rate basis compared to Bo. He made less errors, but simply appears to have made far fewer plays as he didn't have the tools to effectively man short stop anymore.

[Laika]

Semien is kind of WHY Bo is still at shortstop in a different sense. A bad shortstop my fancy stats until 2018, when he turned 27.

 

So he's the model for shortstop improvement.

 

Although Bo's 2022 was much worse than any of Semien's below average defensive seasons...

[wilko]

It was also part of Semien’s whole thing to market himself as flexible SS/2B to open up his options for free agency. Does Texas sign him to that deal if he had played SS instead of 2B?? No, because they signed Seager.

 

If Semien signed a multi-year deal for the Jays I have no doubt he would have been the SS and Bo would have been moved to 2B

 

Padres would have signed him as a SS.

[max silver]

Semien is kind of WHY Bo is still at shortstop in a different sense. A bad shortstop my fancy stats until 2018, when he turned 27.

 

So he's the model for shortstop improvement.

 

Although Bo's 2022 was much worse than any of Semien's below average defensive seasons...

 

I can certainly agree that Semien's bad seasons weren't as bad as Bo at his worst, but this is kind of like discussing whose fart smells worse. Each guy at his worst has pretty wretched defensive metrics.

 

Looking at Bo's UZR it makes me wonder if the purveyors of UZR didn't over-correct when it comes to the impact of shifting on their metric. Aggressive shifting such as the Jays did with Lawrie led to the system receiving a substantial overhaul. Bo's numbers dropped far more precipitously in UZR compared to DRS and OAA from years past. He dropped by only 2 runs by OAA vs a whopping 23 runs by UZR. DRS really wasn't a fan of his defence either though as he dropped a rather sizeable 18 runs as well. It makes it hard to know which defensive system to trust, is OAA the new standard, or do you look for agreement between two of them?

[Terminator]

I'm starting to hope that instead of making a splash on Nimmo we do something more like sign Kiermaier to play CF and have Conforto brought in to play LF. Potentially some marginal upgrades on Teo with Conforto and KK in a full season likely out performs Gurriel. Worse offensively but much better defensively. I just can't imagine how much they would run.

 

This is a good plan. Gallo instead of Conforto could be an option as well and should be cheaper. If Gallo sucks we can put Merrifield in the OF more to spell KK and Springer and then make a trade at the deadline.