General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2022)

[Brownie19]

Cards' CF situation is fine but a bit awkard

 

By talent their CF depth chart might go: O'Neill, then Nootbaar = Carlson

 

But by playing time it might go more like Carlson, then O'Neill, then Nootbaar

 

So yeah. I dunno!

 

Sorry - O'Neill is their best defensive CFer? Didn't realize that. If he's legit in CF, then I could see them moving Carlson. I'd do Carlson for Jansen and Cimber in a heartbeat.

[Laika]

Sorry - O'Neill is their best defensive CFer? Didn't realize that. If he's legit in CF, then I could see them moving Carlson. I'd do Carlson for Jansen and Cimber in a heartbeat.

 

I believe he's the best by defensive metrics, so far. Not sure if he is the best CF defensively by projections.

 

I think Cards consider Carlson to be their CF though.

 

If you look at "sprint speed" and "outfielder jump" on statcast it paints the picture:

SS percentile on left, OJ percentile on right

 

Carlson = 71st, 28th

O'Neill = 98th, 53rd

Nootbaar = 74th, 50th

 

Tapia = 72nd, 10th

Springer = 76th, 57th

 

Simply put, O'Neill has a better full-out speed than the other two and he gets decent jumps. Carlson isn't as fast and struggles off the bat.

[wamco]

Noot + Bellinger/Keirmaier would be nice

 

Rotate Springer/Gurriel through the DH

 

spot

 

This is what I’m thinking as well but that has to be the backup plan, no? It only fixes CF for one year with KK/bellinger

[Laika]

This is what I’m thinking as well but that has to be the backup plan, no? It only fixes CF for one year with KK/bellinger

 

I mean, long-term SS/CF/C are really inefficient to get through trade or free agency. Gotta develop those guys.

 

Unfortunately for Toronto the CF pipeline doesn't look promising. There is like, nobody firmly in it. Dasan Brown? Cam Eden? Maybe some prospect who looks like an infielder or RF right now but will be surprisingly good in the OF?

[Brownie19]

I believe he's the best by defensive metrics, so far. Not sure if he is the best CF defensively by projections.

 

I think Cards consider Carlson to be their CF though.

 

If you look at "sprint speed" and "outfielder jump" on statcast it paints the picture:

SS percentile on left, OJ percentile on right

 

Carlson = 71st, 28th

O'Neill = 98th, 53rd

Nootbaar = 74th, 50th

 

Tapia = 72nd, 10th

Springer = 76th, 57th

 

Simply put, O'Neill has a better full-out speed than the other two and he gets decent jumps. Carlson isn't as fast and struggles off the bat.

 

All interesting - thanks for providing the breakdown. Oddly enough - Teo was pretty darn close to O'Neill in those metrics (2019 he was 94th SS and 52nd OJ) and he's pretty awful defensively. Cards have rarely used O'Neill in CF to date, so I wonder if he has similar issues as Teo (which I think are primarily instinctual?). It would be fascinating to see what MLB teams use to determine defensive abilities (both current and projected).

[Brownie19]

Sign this man.

 

https://www.mlb.com/news/michael-conforto-could-be-steal-in-free-agency

[Laika]

All interesting - thanks for providing the breakdown. Oddly enough - Teo was pretty darn close to O'Neill in those metrics (2019 he was 94th SS and 52nd OJ) and he's pretty awful defensively. Cards have rarely used O'Neill in CF to date, so I wonder if he has similar issues as Teo (which I think are primarily instinctual?). It would be fascinating to see what MLB teams use to determine defensive abilities (both current and projected).

 

Yeah you can definitely be fast + athletic and a complete moron. That's basically Teoscar.

 

O'Neill has always been comfortably above average in the OF, albeit with few reps in CF.

 

Many teams have defensive metrics that differ drastically from publicly available stuff. Like, the secret models they use might incorporate a lot more information like how often baserunners advance against an outfielder's arm, or advance because the outfielder took a bad route or did not track a hit aggressively so they were even able to make a competitive throw... etc.

 

I bet the more involved and complex your defensive model is the WORSE and WORSE Teoscar and Gurriel look.

[Jimcanuck]

Steamer wRC+ projections for d-backs CF + ages

 

Thomas 107, 22.5 yrs

Carroll 113, 22.3 yrs

McCarthy 108, 25.4 yrs

Varsho 108, 26.4 yrs

 

Varsho 2 less years of control

[The Cats Ass]

All interesting - thanks for providing the breakdown. Oddly enough - Teo was pretty darn close to O'Neill in those metrics (2019 he was 94th SS and 52nd OJ) and he's pretty awful defensively. Cards have rarely used O'Neill in CF to date, so I wonder if he has similar issues as Teo (which I think are primarily instinctual?). It would be fascinating to see what MLB teams use to determine defensive abilities (both current and projected).

 

Outs above average might be a better stat for instinct/range. Their past 3 year percentiles have been: Teoscar 10%, 39%, 14%. O'Neil 92%, 86%, 72%.

[glory]

I mean, long-term SS/CF/C are really inefficient to get through trade or free agency. Gotta develop those guys.

 

Unfortunately for Toronto the CF pipeline doesn't look promising. There is like, nobody firmly in it. Dasan Brown? Cam Eden? Maybe some prospect who looks like an infielder or RF right now but will be surprisingly good in the OF?

 

That's why turning one of the catchers into a CF is really the only way to restore some organizational balance. The Jays have 3 catchers and literally one OF signed beyond 2023 with nothing close in the minors. I think you could probably live with Nootbaar + a short term deal for someone like Kiermaier to bide some time, but ideally you turn a catcher into a long term CF, and then go year to year with LF until a longer term option presents itself.

[Stangstag]

Steamer wRC+ projections for d-backs CF + ages

 

Thomas 107, 22.5 yrs

Carroll 113, 22.3 yrs

McCarthy 108, 25.4 yrs

Varsho 108, 26.4 yrs

 

Varsho 2 less years of control

 

Would be nice if the jays had like... 1 OF of this caliber coming up through the system.

[Brownie19]

Outs above average might be a better stat for instinct/range. Their past 3 year percentiles have been: Teoscar 10%, 39%, 14%. O'Neil 92%, 86%, 72%.

 

Good call! Nootbar was 64th percentile for Outs Above Average last year - so solid also.

[TwistedLogic]

Would be nice if the jays had like... 1 OF of this caliber coming up through the system.

 

They do. They drafted him in the 16th round of the 2013 draft and he has a 126 wRC+ projection for next year with 5 years of control. Goes by Lars Nootbaar.

[Jimcanuck]

They do. They drafted him in the 16th round of the 2013 draft and he has a 126 wRC+ projection for next year with 5 years of control. Goes by Lars Nootbaar.

 

Below average CF, not like the d'backs guys

[Stangstag]

Below average CF, not like the d'backs guys

 

I’d still take him as a LF/RF. He’d provide some stability in the OF with Teo gone and Lourdes next year.

[Jonn]

With some of the other quality options out there Nootbar would be low on my priority list especially if his cost is up due to his control. Now if he was packaged with Hellz Bellz for Kirk I’m more in.

[Ehjays]

Edited December 1, 2022 by Ehjays

[Jays24]

 

That better mean we need to upgrade the 2 most important defensive positions in baseball (CF and SS). The Jays are extremely close to taking the next and most important step... really hope this offseason we address our major needs.

[Brownie19]

That better mean we need to upgrade the 2 most important defensive positions in baseball (CF and SS). The Jays are extremely close to taking the next and most important step... really hope this offseason we address our major needs.

 

We're not adding a SS man. You're setting yourself up for disappointment if you think we are.

[Stangstag]

We're not adding a SS man. You're setting yourself up for disappointment if you think we are.

 

Yeah I find it extremely unlikely they’d shell out a huge contract to someone like Correa just to shift Bo to 2B and Merrifield to the OF. I mean maybe but I just don’t see it.

 

Have to think OF is the first place they’re looking to add. Gurriel/Teo/Hernandez played a ton of games in the OF last year and that’s an easy and substantial upgrade to run prevention right there if they bring in someone for CF, even Nimmo.

[Spanky99]

We're not adding a SS man. You're setting yourself up for disappointment if you think we are.

 

lol... these guys are f***ing dreaming if they think they're moving Bo off Short.

[Carlos Danger]

 

Love to hear those two words, "Run Prevention" as our priority... Boingggg!

[Spanky99]

Love to hear those two words, "Run Prevention" as our priority... Boingggg!

 

They've been saying it for 2 years now, bro.

[Carlos Danger]

They've been saying it for 2 years now, bro.

 

Actions speak louder then words. I hadn't heard it be, "The Priority" Teo trade makes me a believer... Maybe..

[Spanky99]

Actions speak louder then words. I hadn't heard it be, "The Priority" Teo trade makes me a believer... Maybe..

 

Haha...

[Sorrow]

I could see Toronto signing a RF or trading for a RF like Nootbar who is above average in RF and keeping Springer in CF for one more season. Springer may be able to handle CF a bit better if he doesn't have two boat anchors in LF and RF.

[Jays24]

lol... these guys are f***ing dreaming if they think they're moving Bo off Short.

 

When I hear the words run prevention, I'd assume improving your defense in the most important spots would be important. Guess it could be the typical Atkins BS lol.

[Brownie19]

I could see Toronto signing a RF or trading for a RF like Nootbar who is above average in RF and keeping Springer in CF for one more season. Springer may be able to handle CF a bit better if he doesn't have two boat anchors in LF and RF.

 

I've thought of this also. If you traded for Nootbar and added Conforto (with Gurriel becoming the 4th OFer/DH), the OF defense would be much improved - whether Springer is in CF or in RF.

 

Springer CF/RF

Vlad 1st

Conforto LF

Kirk C/DH

Bo SS

Nootbar CF/RF

Chapman 3rd

Moreno C/DH

Merrifield 2nd

 

Espinal, Gurriel, Biggio, Util

 

That's a sick, balanced lineup

 

Bring back Stripling (or equivalent #3/#4 starter - or get sexy and get Senga), fix Berrios, healthy Pearson, win World Series.

[Stangstag]

I've thought of this also. If you traded for Nootbar and added Conforto (with Gurriel becoming the 4th OFer/DH), the OF defense would be much improved - whether Springer is in CF or in RF.

 

Springer CF/RF

Vlad 1st

Conforto LF

Kirk C/DH

Bo SS

Nootbar CF/RF

Chapman 3rd

Moreno C/DH

Merrifield 2nd

 

Espinal, Gurriel, Biggio, Util

 

That's a sick, balanced lineup

 

Bring back Stripling (or equivalent #3/#4 starter), fix Berrios, healthy Pearson, win World Series.

 

The most unrealistic thing about this scenario is “healthy Pearson”.

 

I don’t think that exists

[Brownie19]

The most unrealistic thing about this scenario is “healthy Pearson”.

 

I don’t think that exists

 

He's due man. We're going to get 65 innings out of him this year and it's going to be glorious!