General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2022)

[Dagagad]

I didn't say he's a top 10 reliever. I said he's a top 10 closer.

 

Can I swap my closer for a better reliever? I’ll be happy to do that.

[jaysguy44]

Lol no

I mean, I don't think they are as far apart this season as you may be suggesting..

[Jonn]

I mean, I don't think they are as far apart this season as you may be suggesting..

 

They are miles apart outside of ERA which is basically irrelevant in the comparison. Infact it’s probably an irrelevant stat for relievers peroid. One terrible outing can balloon an ERA fast.

 

Jansen is striking out batters at an elite rate. Walks nobody and has a WHIP under 1 which is pretty nuts. His advanced stats even tell a better story.

[jaysblue]

I didn't say he's a top 10 reliever. I said he's a top 10 closer.

 

He's not a Top 10 closer. I could name 10 closers or more easily ahead of him this season (in no particular order):

 

Diaz

Kimbrel

Hendricks

Jansen

Hader

Helsley

Devin Williams (now)

Clase

Bednar

Lopez

Holmes

Bautista (now)

Iglesias

Dorval

 

Romano has done a solid job and held his own, but to say he's been a Top 10 closer is a little homerish.

[Jimcanuck]

He's not a Top 10 closer. I could name 10 closers or more easily ahead of him this season (in no particular order):

 

Diaz

Kimbrel

Hendricks

Jansen

Hader

Helsley

Devin Williams (now)

Clase

Bednar

Lopez

Holmes

Bautista (now)

Iglesias

Dorval

 

Romano has done a solid job and held his own, but to say he's been a Top 10 closer is a little homerish.

 

Taking another look, you are right. He's outside the top 10.

[Grant77]

He's not a Top 10 closer. I could name 10 closers or more easily ahead of him this season (in no particular order):

 

Diaz

Kimbrel

Hendricks

Jansen

Hader

Helsley

Devin Williams (now)

Clase

Bednar

Lopez

Holmes

Bautista (now)

Iglesias

Dorval

 

Romano has done a solid job and held his own, but to say he's been a Top 10 closer is a little homerish.

 

Romano is a better pitcher than Kimbrel in my opinion. It's a push at best, he's not easily ahead.

[L54]

Romano is a better pitcher than Kimbrel in my opinion. It's a push at best, he's not easily ahead.

 

Lol of course he is

 

I have to admit your dedication to hating a single team is unparalleled

[Grant77]

Lol of course he is

 

I have to admit your dedication to hating a single team is unparalleled

 

I hate the Dodgers?

[L54]

I hate the Dodgers?

 

Lol

[Laika]

Kikuchi really needs a RH Opener in front of him when the other team is capable of stacking RHB like that... it would probably help a lot to have a RHP even a mediocre/s***** one like Thornton throw the first inning or two.

[jaysblue]

Romano is a better pitcher than Kimbrel in my opinion. It's a push at best, he's not easily ahead.

 

Where did I say Kimbrel was easily ahead? I mentioned that list was in no particular order. Regardless Kimbrel has been better this season (1.0 WAR, 12.46 K/9, 2.14 FIP) and it's one of his down years.

[jaysblue]

Taking another look, you are right. He's outside the top 10.

 

I think Romano definitely is in the 15-20 range of closers.

[jaysblue]

Kikuchi really needs a RH Opener in front of him when the other team is capable of stacking RHB like that... it would probably help a lot to have a RHP even a mediocre/s***** one like Thornton throw the first inning or two.

 

I like this idea a lot. Would love to see the Blue Jays try that with him. It's a good strategy.

[Grant77]

Where did I say Kimbrel was easily ahead? I mentioned that list was in no particular order. Regardless Kimbrel has been better this season (1.0 WAR, 12.46 K/9, 2.14 FIP) and it's one of his down years.

 

You stated that you could name more than 10 closers that are easily ahead of Romano and proceeded to name more than 10 closers. If you meant something different then please clarify.

 

Kimbrel hasn't been any better this season and he projects similar or worse ROS. Give me Romano in a tight game.

[Brownie19]

Where did I say Kimbrel was easily ahead? I mentioned that list was in no particular order. Regardless Kimbrel has been better this season (1.0 WAR, 12.46 K/9, 2.14 FIP) and it's one of his down years.

 

It's also a down year for Romano.

[Laika]

This is a silly line of discussion anyway.

 

Romano PROJECTS as a good but not elite reliever. That's all that really matters.

 

He projects better than a few guys on that closer list, but also worse than a lot of non-closing relievers.

 

His decline in stuff and K-BB is having a negative effect on his projections. You will note that the more responsive projection system (THE BAT) gives him slightly worse ERA/FIP/K% projections.

 

Hopefully in 2023 his stuff is back to 2021 levels. He turns 30 in April though, so who knows, that might be wishful thinking.

[wilko]

This is a silly line of discussion anyway.

 

Romano PROJECTS as a good but not elite reliever. That's all that really matters.

 

He projects better than a few guys on that closer list, but also worse than a lot of non-closing relievers.

 

His decline in stuff and K-BB is having a negative effect on his projections. You will note that the more responsive projection system (THE BAT) gives him slightly worse ERA/FIP/K% projections.

 

Hopefully in 2023 his stuff is back to 2021 levels. He turns 30 in April though, so who knows, that might be wishful thinking.

 

Hopefully the Mary Browns commercials will boost his confidence.

[MikeM3]

I don't understand how you sign a pitcher whose only good season came when his cutter was good, and then take away that cutter.

 

You literally have no evidence of Kikuchi being good without a cutter. How do you give 3 years to that.

[Laika]

I don't understand how you sign a pitcher whose only good season came when his cutter was good, and then take away that cutter.

 

You literally have no evidence of Kikuchi being good without a cutter. How do you give 3 years to that.

 

Overconfidence in their ability to tweak pitchers I guess.

 

They fixed Ray and helped Matz and got cocky?

 

But the decision to scrap Kikuchi's cutter is not that weird. It sucked.

 

Terrible contract though. I hope they are willing to cut him during 2023 if he is pitching anything like this.

[max silver]

I don't understand how you sign a pitcher whose only good season came when his cutter was good, and then take away that cutter.

 

You literally have no evidence of Kikuchi being good without a cutter. How do you give 3 years to that.

 

Go check out Kikuchi's statcast results for his cutter for last year and this year and then you'll see why the team took the cutter away.

[MikeM3]

Go check out Kikuchi's statcast results for his cutter for last year and this year and then you'll see why the team took the cutter away.

 

Ya it was s***. But you have to fix it. Otherwise, there's no evidence that simply taking it away will make him good. It's purely speculative at that point.

 

They are tweaking his arm slot mid-season. I feel like that's a pretty drastic change. More drastic than letting him work through the cutter struggles.

 

Almost all pitchers will be more effective with more pitches.

 

I also didn't like when they eliminated Ryu's sinker. It's still a pitch that hitters have to scout even at 10% usage. Even if it's a -EV pitch. I don't understand what they were expecting Ryu's change to tunnel off of if there's no sinker in the repertoire anymore.

 

Ryu's sinker and change occupy the exact same spot on the heat map. He doesn't throw his 4 seam there. So there's no tunnel.

[Terminator]

Even if Kikuchi was just pitching like he did previously it wouldn't be that big of a deal. A 1 WAR #5 SP isn't the end of the world and they obviously thought there was some upside there. Instead he now throws strikes less often than your average high school pitcher. It's like he has the yips or something.

[Laika]

So what do you do in the offseason...

 

A) Continue down the developmental road. Put him in the lab. Try to create Good Kikuchi.

 

Let him go back to #5 SP Kikuchi and throw whatever he wants. He'll maybe revert to being a 1 WAR hot mess.

 

 

In 2020 and 2021 he was basically:

 

35% Four seamer

35% Cutter

20% Slider

10% Change

 

In 2020 they have made him

 

55% Four seamer

15% Change

30% Slider

 

 

I understand the theory because the CT looked s*** and 4S looked better but it clearly isn't working so what he f*** do they do lol.

[MikeM3]

Overconfidence in their ability to tweak pitchers I guess.

 

They fixed Ray and helped Matz and got cocky?

 

But the decision to scrap Kikuchi's cutter is not that weird. It sucked.

 

Terrible contract though. I hope they are willing to cut him during 2023 if he is pitching anything like this.

 

Both those guys were nice buy lows from Atkins because they've always been somewhat effective. I wouldn't really say they were pitchers we created from nothing. Ray f***ed his delivery voluntarily for a year and we just told him to revert it.

[Dagagad]

So what do you do in the offseason...

 

A) Continue down the developmental road. Put him in the lab. Try to create Good Kikuchi.

 

Let him go back to #5 SP Kikuchi and throw whatever he wants. He'll maybe revert to being a 1 WAR hot mess.

 

 

In 2020 and 2021 he was basically:

 

35% Four seamer

35% Cutter

20% Slider

10% Change

 

In 2020 they have made him

 

55% Four seamer

15% Change

30% Slider

 

 

I understand the theory because the CT looked s*** and 4S looked better but it clearly isn't working so what he f*** do they do lol.

 

A is the only option. If it doesn’t work out next year, try him in the pen. If that doesn’t work, cut him.

 

I don’t get how anyone in their right mind would make a medium sized bet on someone with his body language. That would terrify me, but maybe it made him cheaper.

[jaysblue]

Both those guys were nice buy lows from Atkins because they've always been somewhat effective. I wouldn't really say they were pitchers we created from nothing. Ray f***ed his delivery voluntarily for a year and we just told him to revert it.

 

Ray had some really good seasons with Arizona before he came to Toronto. I don't think the 2021 Ray was any different from the Ray in 2016/2017 for example. He hit a rough patch in 2020 and the Jays helped him back on the right track.

 

Matz was always a decent No. 4-5 starter with the Mets and who had some untapped potential. Injuries were always his concern.

[Jimcanuck]

For every Ray and Matz, there's a Roark and Kikuchi.

[jaysblue]

For every Ray and Matz, there's a Roark and Kikuchi.

 

Roark and Kikuchi never had the previous success like Ray and Matz did.

[Jimcanuck]

Roark and Kikuchi never had the previous success like Ray and Matz did.

 

Not true at all. Roark had far more success than Matz, and flip a coin on whose numbers were better between Kikuchi and Matz.

[Orgfiller]

Roark and Kikuchi never had the previous success like Ray and Matz did.

 

Tanner Roark had a significantly better track record of success than Matz and about as equal if not better than Ray. Matz was damaged goods entering 2021, Ray was inconsistent with flashes of brilliance mixed in with awful 5 BB performances. Kikuchi I'm pretty sure was well regarded coming out of Japan and had decent stretches in 2020 and 2021.

 

The difference of Roark vs Matz entering their respective Blue Jays careers was like a 2-3 win difference.