General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2022)

[Laika]

You can’t extend that dude, right?

 

He’s a good player, I think he will provide tons of value over his control… but you pat him on the bum, tell him good luck and let some other team pay for the old version of Bo with that plate approach.

 

I guess, but there are a few years left for him to develop.

 

I'd like to see his approach change. It's possible.

 

In my head, he wasn't this wild last season.

[glory]

I wouldn't dismiss the White Sox either. The Jays better figure out how to start winning or there's a good possibility they're sitting out the postseason again. They just continue to underperform and I don't know who that blame goes to.

 

The White Sox and Guardians are in the s***** AL Central, so I guess we can't rule them out as being able to go on a run. The Mariners are in a division with one great team and mediocrity/bad everywhere else. The M's have been on a roll, have good SP/RP, and Julio Rodriguez is a beast. A week or two ago I would have said the Jays were a playoff lock, and maybe they still are to some degree, but it doesn't look like a certainty right now. This isn't an underachieving team with a +100 run differential like last season. They are pretty much where they should be from the looks of it, if not a bit lucky (though schedule has been tough).

 

The Jays only have 3 years with Vlad after this one. They already wasted an opportunity last season. They can't waste anymore.

[Brownie19]

I’m a subscriber to the theory that guys who rely on their physical ability to get bat to ball over approach can fall off extremely quickly as they age.

 

I’d happily pay him all the way through arb and then let him go. It might be a mistake but I’d take my chances.

 

Edit: I’m also a subscriber to the theory that you can only have so many potential uncompetitive at bats in one lineup. Which is one of the reasons I’d be totally fine with trading teo. That theory has no evidence behind it.

 

Personally, I think Bo will continue to improve and develop as a hitter as he approaches his prime. He's an extremely hard worker who has all the physical tools to do it. Career paths are not always linier. I look at hitters like Bogaerts and Trea Turner - they didn't develop into great hitters until they were 25 and 27 respectfully and now they are probably the 2 best SS's in baseball. There aren't many SS's in baseball who were posting 5.1 WAR seasons at age 23.

[Dagagad]

I guess, but there are a few years left for him to develop.

 

I'd like to see his approach change. It's possible.

 

In my head, he wasn't this wild last season.

 

It would be incredibly unfair when they are a top 5 offense but the one thing that hitting coaches are proven to have an effect on (according to Eno Sarris) is to decrease o swing.

[Dagagad]

Personally, I think Bo will continue to improve and develop as a hitter as he approaches his prime. He's an extremely hard worker who has all the physical tools to do it. Career paths are not always linier. I look at hitters like Bogaerts and Trea Turner - they didn't develop into great hitters until they were 25 and 27 respectfully and now they are probably the 2 best SS's in baseball. There aren't many SS's in baseball who were posting 5.1 WAR seasons at age 23.

 

Did they improve their approach or just become better hitters?

 

I have to be clear. I think Bo is a great hitter who is slumping right now. I just mean that his style of play doesn’t age well.

 

If he can decrease his o swing I’ll be a believer.

[Olerud363]

Vlad all day right now but I definitely just wait and see. Bo would have to make pretty unprecedented changes to his approach that might not even work for him.

 

If Moreno works out, he is an extension candidate. Signed for a pittance. Could probably get him on a great contract. Exploitive but yea..

 

Kirk should be an extension candidate too... given he signed for 30k so not like he has several million signing bonus in the bank... also has 4 years remaining after this one. So ingredients are there for a team friendly deal... though you may argue you don't want him at age 28, but that factors in too.

 

Hard to get team friendly deal for a guy like Juan Soto, not fat, not short, 2 years remaining, and is a 5 WAR guy even hitting .220, never swings at a ball.

 

What about a fat short version of Juan Soto who has 4 years remaining, can't do anything that is not catching, doesn't have a lot of savings, and no one is sure if he is a fat Juan Soto yet (we are sure he is fat) ? Ingredients for team friendly deal.

[Dagagad]

Kirk should be an extension candidate too... given he signed for 30k so not like he has several million signing bonus in the bank... also has 4 years remaining after this one. So ingredients are there for a team friendly deal... though you may argue you don't want him at age 28, but that factors in too.

 

Hard to get team friendly deal for a guy like Juan Soto, not fat, not short, 2 years remaining, and is a 5 WAR guy even hitting .220, never swings at a ball.

 

What about a fat short version of Juan Soto who has 4 years remaining, can't do anything that is not catching, doesn't have a lot of savings, and no one is sure if he is a fat Juan Soto yet (we are sure he is fat) ? Ingredients for team friendly deal.

 

2 year extension? I don’t hate it on the right deal.

[InvincibleTiger]

Wake me up when Walker has been fired

[Krylian]

Wake me up when Walker has been fired

 

I feel you're gonna have a nice long nap.

[Brownie19]

Did they improve their approach or just become better hitters?

 

I have to be clear. I think Bo is a great hitter who is slumping right now. I just mean that his style of play doesn’t age well.

 

If he can decrease his o swing I’ll be a believer.

 

I don't see a tangible change in Trea's approach. In fact his O-Swing in 2020-2022 is higher than it was back in 2017-2018 when his wRC+ was just 105.

 

For what it's worth, Bo's O-Swing has dropped the past 3 years (46%, 43%, 41%), while his Z-Swing has increased (74%, 81%, 82%)....so one could argue his approach is actually improving.

[Dagagad]

I don't see a tangible change in Trea's approach. In fact his O-Swing in 2020-2022 is higher than it was back in 2017-2018 when his wRC+ was just 105.

 

For what it's worth, Bo's O-Swing has dropped the past 3 years (46%, 43%, 41%), while his Z-Swing has increased (74%, 81%, 82%)....so one could argue his approach is actually improving.

 

That’s still 11th worst among qualified hitters in baseball. He needs to take a big jump over a season before I think about extending him. Especially, as I assume he isn’t giving any discounts based on his o swing %.

[BigCecil]

Personally, I think Bo will continue to improve and develop as a hitter as he approaches his prime. He's an extremely hard worker who has all the physical tools to do it. Career paths are not always linier. I look at hitters like Bogaerts and Trea Turner - they didn't develop into great hitters until they were 25 and 27 respectfully and now they are probably the 2 best SS's in baseball. There aren't many SS's in baseball who were posting 5.1 WAR seasons at age 23.

 

Thats glass half full and those are good examples. Dansby is another. OTOH a free swinger like Baez never changed much.

 

I hope you are right. I have the opposite view of Bo. Mostly because of his chase and pitch selection. 5.1 fWAR is more likely to be his pinnacle just my guess. His D metrics aren't bad and he plays a premium position so he will benefit from that if he stays healthy and plays 150+.

 

He definitely is a hard worker and seems like a confident guy. I actually think thats part of his issue at the plate. Great bat to ball skills and believes he can square up almost anything. So far this year he is mediocre in the 2 spot. Love to see him moved down for higher OBP.

[Brownie19]

That’s still 11th worst among qualified hitters in baseball. He needs to take a big jump over a season before I think about extending him. Especially, as I assume he isn’t giving any discounts based on his o swing %.

 

I don't know how you use that as a metric when guys like Luis Roberts, Castellanos and Devers all have higher O-Swing %'s than Bo...while Bryce Harper is 1.4% below him. When I look at the highest and lowest O-Swing %'s I see lots of great hitter and lots of s***** hitters in both....although it's fair to say there are 'fewer' s***** hitters when you sort by the lowest O-Swing %.

[Olerud363]

2 year extension? I donÂ’t hate it on the right deal.

 

6 year contract for 45 million ? I don't know what's fair. He has 1 pre-arb and 3 arbitration left

 

Kirk isn't a millionaire and isn't set for life yet. 6 weeks ago people didn't think Seattle would take him for Kelenic.

 

Now he's a 6 WAR guy. Or is he? We don't know. That's why it still may be possible to get him to a team friendly deal.

 

Jays risk Kirk might get injured or not really a 5 WAR player.

 

Kirk risks he might be a 7 WAR player. What value reflects both those risks?

[Solaxys]

The problem with this line-up, long term (even if its firing on all cylinders), is there is just no room to sneak in a LHB impact bat because of the potential of how good the RHB are.

This isn't an issue over a regular season but will be in post-seasons where you can just load up on righty-specialists who have a wipe-out slider down/away for the series.

 

To an extent, I appreciate Charlie setting up Tapia and Biggio, 2 batters apart, even if it means Tapia has to hit 6th sometimes, as this plays well around the 3-batter rule for relievers.

It'd be pretty neat to do 2-5-8 as your lefties, 1-3-4-6-7-9 as your righties.

 

To make room for a LH impact bat in the top of the order, someone has to go (again, its a long-term thing; this year, we have other issues and this isn't making the list).

Will Springer get traded before his prime wraps up?

Who of Bo/Vlad/Kirk get extended?

Will Teo/Gurriel get traded before 2024?

 

Getting LH impact (two in the top 6) would help this lineup quite a bit, imo, just to establish more competitive ABs against excellent RHPs.

 

We're kind of thin on OF bats from the minors atm, which is unfortunate, so might also have to start looking into some upside bats there.

Does Zimmer have a chance to improve his contact once he goes through the rigamarole of this off-season/training?

He has speed, defense, elite hardhit%/barrel% but just cannot make contact. Not sure if you can teach bat-ball skills.

[Dagagad]

I don't know how you use that as a metric when guys like Luis Roberts, Castellanos and Devers all have higher O-Swing %'s than Bo...while Bryce Harper is 1.4% below him. When I look at the highest and lowest O-Swing %'s I see lots of great hitter and lots of s***** hitters in both....although it's fair to say there are 'fewer' s***** hitters when you sort by the lowest O-Swing %.

 

In my opinion you ride it until late twenties and you don’t extend it.

[Stangstag]

The problem with this line-up, long term (even if its firing on all cylinders), is there is just no room to sneak in a LHB impact bat because of the potential of how good the RHB are.

This isn't an issue over a regular season but will be in post-seasons where you can just load up on righty-specialists who have a wipe-out slider down/away for the series.

 

To an extent, I appreciate Charlie setting up Tapia and Biggio, 2 batters apart, even if it means Tapia has to hit 6th sometimes, as this plays well around the 3-batter rule for relievers.

 

To make room for a LH impact bat in the top of the order, someone has to go (again, its a long-term thing; this year, we have other issues and this isn't making the list).

Will Springer get traded before his prime wraps up?

Who of Bo/Vlad/Kirk get extended?

Will Teo/Gurriel get traded before 2024?

 

Getting LH impact (one or two) in the top 5 would help this lineup quite a bit, imo, just to establish more competitive ABs against excellent RHPs.

 

We're kind of thin on OF bats from the minors atm, which is unfortunate, so might also have to start looking into some upside bats.

Does Zimmer have a chance to improve his contact once he goes through the rigamarole of this off-season/training?

He has speed, defense, elite hardhit%/barrel% but just cannot make contact. Not sure if you can teach bat-ball skills.

 

For LH impact bat, i’d be looking at CF and one of the corner spots. IMO it makes most sense to let Teo and Gurriel go once their contracts are up, transition Springer to LF or RF full-time, look to add a plus defender in CF that hits left (someone like Tapia/JBJ but closer to league average bat) and then figure out how to get a big lefty slugger for the other corner spot through either trade or free agency.

 

Easier said than done of course, but that’s what i’d try to do. Could also look to add a lefty 3B once Chapman goes in 2024.

[Dagagad]

6 year contract for 45 million ? I don't know what's fair. He has 1 pre-arb and 3 arbitration left

 

Kirk isn't a millionaire and isn't set for life yet. 6 weeks ago people didn't think Seattle would take him for Kelenic.

 

Now he's a 6 WAR guy. Or is he? We don't know. That's why it still may be possible to get him to a team friendly deal.

 

Jays risk Kirk might get injured or not really a 5 WAR player.

 

Kirk risks he might be a 7 WAR player. What value reflects both those risks?

 

I think that would be a good deal but you might be able to even get 6/40.

[Dagagad]

The problem with this line-up, long term (even if its firing on all cylinders), is there is just no room to sneak in a LHB impact bat because of the potential of how good the RHB are.

This isn't an issue over a regular season but will be in post-seasons where you can just load up on righty-specialists who have a wipe-out slider down/away for the series.

 

To an extent, I appreciate Charlie setting up Tapia and Biggio, 2 batters apart, even if it means Tapia has to hit 6th sometimes, as this plays well around the 3-batter rule for relievers.

It'd be pretty neat to do 2-5-8 as your lefties, 1-3-4-6-7-9 as your righties.

 

To make room for a LH impact bat in the top of the order, someone has to go (again, its a long-term thing; this year, we have other issues and this isn't making the list).

Will Springer get traded before his prime wraps up?

Who of Bo/Vlad/Kirk get extended?

Will Teo/Gurriel get traded before 2024?

 

Getting LH impact (two in the top 6) would help this lineup quite a bit, imo, just to establish more competitive ABs against excellent RHPs.

 

We're kind of thin on OF bats from the minors atm, which is unfortunate, so might also have to start looking into some upside bats there.

Does Zimmer have a chance to improve his contact once he goes through the rigamarole of this off-season/training?

He has speed, defense, elite hardhit%/barrel% but just cannot make contact. Not sure if you can teach bat-ball skills.

 

Teo right? At the deadline or off-season. I don’t think you need to trade him directly for a LHB but if you could get a leftie with good approach and defensive versatility, and good hit tool, I’d be happy to punt on power. I know that’s a big ask though.

[Stangstag]

Teo right? At the deadline or off-season. I don’t think you need to trade him directly for a LHB but if you could get a leftie with good approach and defensive versatility, and good hit tool, I’d be happy to punt on power. I know that’s a big ask though.

 

Makes sense. I see the biggest need going forward (other than pitching) to be a plus defensive CF. Springer will be moved to the corner sooner than later. If we could find a contact lefty that fills that role it would be perfect. Tapia but not s***

[Laika]

No matter how you depict the problems and characterize the situation, it's clear that Toronto is at a bit of a crossroads. Approaching some major decision points.

 

And it's not at all obvious what they will or can do.

 

- Coaching changes?

- Kikuchi role change, DFA, phantom injury?

- Big lineup changes for guys like Biggio and Bo?

- Trade a catcher?

- Trade for relief? SP?

- Trade for a LHB?

 

Do they push more minors chips in with big deals this deadline, like they did with Berrios? Or is it smaller stuff?

[Stangstag]

No matter how you depict the problems and characterize the situation, it's clear that Toronto is at a bit of a crossroads. Approaching some major decision points.

 

And it's not at all obvious what they will or can do.

 

- Coaching changes?

- Kikuchi role change, DFA, phantom injury?

- Big lineup changes for guys like Biggio and Bo?

- Trade a catcher?

- Trade for relief? SP?

- Trade for a LHB?

 

Do they push more minors chips in with big deals this deadline, like they did with Berrios? Or is it smaller stuff?

 

- Coaching changes? Not until the offseason probably

- Kikuchi role change, DFA, phantom injury? I think they’ll use him in the rotation until the ASB then move him to the BP as mop up

- Big lineup changes for guys like Biggio and Bo? Bo should definitely be moved down, but idk if they do it.

- Trade a catcher? Yes

- Trade for relief? SP? Relief for sure, a decent SP is probably a necessity at this point

- Trade for a LHB? No

 

Do they push more minors chips in with big deals this deadline, like they did with Berrios? Or is it smaller stuff?

 

I would gues smaller moves this year

[Laika]

- Coaching changes? Not until the offseason probably

- Kikuchi role change, DFA, phantom injury? I think they’ll use him in the rotation until the ASB then move him to the BP as mop up

- Big lineup changes for guys like Biggio and Bo? Bo should definitely be moved down, but idk if they do it.

- Trade a catcher? Yes

- Trade for relief? SP? Relief for sure, a decent SP is probably a necessity at this point

- Trade for a LHB? No

 

Do they push more minors chips in with big deals this deadline, like they did with Berrios? Or is it smaller stuff?

 

I would gues smaller moves this year

 

Any catcher trade would be a significant move

 

Nobody gets Danny Jansen for peanuts!

[Dagagad]

- Coaching changes? Not until the offseason probably

- Kikuchi role change, DFA, phantom injury? I think theyÂ’ll use him in the rotation until the ASB then move him to the BP as mop up

- Big lineup changes for guys like Biggio and Bo? Bo should definitely be moved down, but idk if they do it.

- Trade a catcher? Yes

- Trade for relief? SP? Relief for sure, a decent SP is probably a necessity at this point

- Trade for a LHB? No

 

Do they push more minors chips in with big deals this deadline, like they did with Berrios? Or is it smaller stuff?

 

I would gues smaller moves this year

 

I think Kikuchi gets two more and then depending on how they go, phantom injury.

 

I don’t see bo getting moved down.

 

I think they should trade Jansen but not sure if they will. What they do at the deadline should come down to where we are at the deadline. If we are in legit dogfight to get in, you unload upper minors prospects to improve the team right now and for next year including orelvis and also Jansen.

 

If we have like 90% odds to get in, make small moves and possibly trade Jansen.

 

If we have mid 90%, I’d want to get super creative and maybe trade Jansen and Teo for upper minors prospects and then trade prospects for a rental hitter or two and other small pitching moves.

[Solaxys]

Wonder what Conforto is doing lately

 

---

 

Also a lot of possible LH Impact Bat choices will depend on whether Kirk will become a DH with C as his secondary or vice versa. That'll shape up over the next few years.

 

As for contact leftys with plus defense, Kevin Kiermaier might become a FA this year

 

Pirates are definitely looking into contending in a few years so I presume they'll extend Bryan Reynolds but it'd be f***ing swell if we can trade for him. He is expensive though, 6.25M AAV atm and will only go up.

[John_Havok]

Conforto is recovering from Shoulder surgery, wont be back until 2023

[Solaxys]

No matter how you depict the problems and characterize the situation, it's clear that Toronto is at a bit of a crossroads. Approaching some major decision points.

 

And it's not at all obvious what they will or can do.

 

- Coaching changes?

- Kikuchi role change, DFA, phantom injury?

- Big lineup changes for guys like Biggio and Bo?

- Trade a catcher?

- Trade for relief? SP?

- Trade for a LHB?

 

Do they push more minors chips in with big deals this deadline, like they did with Berrios? Or is it smaller stuff?

 

 

Coaching will be offseason.

I think at the minimum baserunning/defense coaching changes will happen. Way too many errors committed on that end.

Rest will depend on if we make postseason or not. Mostly pitching coaches are on the line especially with Berrios' contract.

I don't think Charlie is going anywhere but I'd be elated if Schneider took over.

 

Don't think catcher trade will happen mid-season unless its Moreno (who might be traded if the return is good, tbh); its looking more like Moreno might be sent back down to AAA.

One of the three will be traded this offseason though - Jansen most likely but not sure to whom. Astros/Giants are going to go through some heavy turnover next season but Astros might set up for two more years of contention. We have to get Brown if this is the case. 'cause I can't f***ing get behind spending another 20 AAV for another starting pitcher lol.

If you really want to trade Jansen right now, give him to the Rays for some of their elite pitching

 

We'll trade for Relief. I am just not sure what direction they are going to take.

Are we looking for people with control like Barlow/Mantiply/Effross (these guys will cost something) or get-me-overs like Bard/Robertson/Chafin (these guys won't cost much)?

I hope for the former as I don't think this is an all-in season, so spend some low-end prospects for some upside + control.

But relief with control is kind of a crapshoot too - they might never repeat those seasons again.

 

I don't think we are trading for Montas/Castillo or anyone of that caliber.

It'll cost too much (I mean we got Berrios for 2 top 100 with no competition; Montas/Castillo are going to set up bidding wars) and we don't need that.

We need inning eaters atm. Gausman/Manoah are enough 1/2 and Berrios has to be 3 with that contract. 4/5 don't need to be elite.

I liked Mahle but he isn't vaccinated, so maybe Quintana from pirates who won't cost much. But he is a get-me-over and so do we have anyone lined up for next year?

Wade Miley could be another target and can package with Effross or Robertson.

 

We ain't touching a LHB - only one worth is Bell and we can't fit him anywhere. Can get Ortega from Cubs in a package but, that'd mean DFA-ing Tapia or Zimmer - not sure that's part of the plan atm.

We have two DH possibilities in Vlad/Kirk + aging Springer's body - no spot for a dedicated DH player atm.

I also think they want to wait and see what they have in Biggio and if they can turn around Zimmer this offseason.

[Spanky99]

[Spanky99]

[Spanky99]