General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2022)

[Dagagad]

Borucki doing well with Seattle lmao

 

Probably just random reliever crap but seattle have had a few reliever success stories recently.

[Laika]

"Saturday, July 2, two juveniles were floating on the river on an inflatable tube being pulled by a boat when they fell into the water.

 

The operator of the boat turned it around to get them, and in doing so created a wave that changed the trajectory of the boat. The boat went over one of the teens, a 17-year-old girl, and she was struck by the propeller"

 

https://www.wric.com/news/local-news/chesterfield-county/teen-killed-in-boating-accident-on-james-river/

 

Man that is horrible.

 

Makes you wonder who was driving the boat. You would have to be so irresponsible to make this mistake - a series of operational errors like going to fast near people, not being aware of your own wake, and not cutting the motor when anywhere near a floating human

[connorp]

Man that is horrible.

 

Makes you wonder who was driving the boat. You would have to be so irresponsible to make this mistake - a series of operational errors like going to fast near people, not being aware of your own wake, and not cutting the motor when anywhere near a floating human

 

More stories but you’d wonder if it was a peer with not much experience

[Laika]

More stories but you’d wonder if it was a peer with not much experience

 

for sure seems like the type of mistake a teenager would make

 

or a dad seven drinks deep, or with the maturity of a teenager

[BigCecil]

Thats a horrific tragedy. Parents unimaginable perpetual nightmare. So so sad for them all.

 

Similar happened to friend of mine on lake in Kelowna BC as a teen. He was very lucky. Still has massive prop scars on his back for life.

[connorp]

for sure seems like the type of mistake a teenager would make

 

or a dad seven drinks deep, or with the maturity of a teenager

 

Well, hopefully neither the hypothetical teen or dad were 7 deep. Those have to be the hardest cases to prosecute/sentence for. Weighing the mistake with human life

[RustyTrombone]

"Saturday, July 2, two juveniles were floating on the river on an inflatable tube being pulled by a boat when they fell into the water.

 

The operator of the boat turned it around to get them, and in doing so created a wave that changed the trajectory of the boat. The boat went over one of the teens, a 17-year-old girl, and she was struck by the propeller"

 

https://www.wric.com/news/local-news/chesterfield-county/teen-killed-in-boating-accident-on-james-river/

 

Holy f*** thats absolutely brutal. Hope the Budzinsky family is doing ok.

[Jonn]

Hopefully being back in Oakland lights a fire under him. He’s been absolutely abysmal at the plate. Probably a better team with Espinal at Third and Biggio at Second. Atleast right now.

[Carlos Danger]

"Saturday, July 2, two juveniles were floating on the river on an inflatable tube being pulled by a boat when they fell into the water.

 

The operator of the boat turned it around to get them, and in doing so created a wave that changed the trajectory of the boat. The boat went over one of the teens, a 17-year-old girl, and she was struck by the propeller"

 

 

https://www.wric.com/news/local-news/chesterfield-county/teen-killed-in-boating-accident-on-james-river/

 

Infuriating. Obviously, the boat driver had no idea what the f*** they were doing. Totally preventable and an unfortunate perfect storm of f***-ups/bad luck for that to happen. Damn, it is going to hurt regardless, but soo avoidable

[Brownie19]

Hopefully being back in Oakland lights a fire under him. He’s been absolutely abysmal at the plate. Probably a better team with Espinal at Third and Biggio at Second. Atleast right now.

 

When Moreno is catching and Kirk is pitching - I'd agree with this. But otherwise, I'd still rather see Chapman in there with Biggio replacing Tapia in the lineup.

 

Something doesn't seem to add up with Chapman. He doesn't chase bad pitches (94th percentile), barrels the ball regularly (84th percentile), is in the 94% percentile for hard hit % and has great average and max exit velo (91st and 86th percentile). Where are the results?

[Laika]

When Moreno is catching and Kirk is pitching - I'd agree with this. But otherwise, I'd still rather see Chapman in there with Biggio replacing Tapia in the lineup.

 

Something doesn't seem to add up with Chapman. He doesn't chase bad pitches (94th percentile), barrels the ball regularly (84th percentile), is in the 94% percentile for hard hit % and has great average and max exit velo (91st and 86th percentile). Where are the results?

 

The margins of error are so thin on these high K% + high FB% players. Chapman is kind of a more normal version of Gallo, the extreme illustration of the problem.

 

The tinkering MLB has done with the balls and the humidors might be f***ing with the results

[Brownie19]

The margins of error are so thin on these high K% + high FB% players. Chapman is kind of a more normal version of Gallo, the extreme illustration of the problem.

 

The tinkering MLB has done with the balls and the humidors might be f***ing with the results

 

But he's only striking out 25% of the time this year - which is a lot closer to league average than it is to Joey Gallo.

[Laika]

Yeah he might be getting quite unlucky. But it's just hard to say that for Chapman after the two prior years and it strikes me as more likely that his K rate will just go back to those 30% rates.

[Brownie19]

Yeah he might be getting quite unlucky. But it's just hard to say that for Chapman after the two prior years and it strikes me as more likely that his K rate will just go back to those 30% rates.

 

What I find really odd is the massive drop in SLG% over the past 2 years. He went from a .500+ guy every year (even when the K's came in 2020) to a very low .400 SLG% guy...despite the fact he still hits baseballs really hard.

[Dagagad]

Just saw a rumour that the tigers are interested in Jansen.

 

If we trust our scouting and we like guys in their system, I’d totally do a Soto plus 2/3 prospects and another reliever deal. They usually have pretty good pitching prospects.

[Carlos Danger]

Just saw a rumour that the tigers are interested in Jansen.

 

If we trust our scouting and we like guys in their system, I’d totally do a Soto plus 2/3 prospects and another reliever deal. They usually have pretty good pitching prospects.

 

I would like Lange. He can bridge that gap we aren’t able to now between the SPs and our “set-up, closer guys.”

 

Would also like Wentz.

[Ray]

Jays have the 10th worst pitching staff ERA (4.10) in all of MLB, and 10th worst in runs allowed per game.

 

Doesn’t paint a good picture.

[BigCecil]

FO surprised me with Berrios deal last yr. They are pretty unpredictable.

 

I know its these kinds of deals happen more often in off season but I am wondering if we don't see a major swap of roster talent where they are looking for more starter control and/or LHH etc etc. I still remember well the shock of late 1990 two established players McGriff/Fernandez going for Alomar/Carter.

 

Some people expecting a sustained contender window. With the $ we have in Berrios/Gausman/Springer and Bo, Vlad, Teo clocks ticking juxtaposed against our lack of cheap pitching depth thats not going to be easy. Manoah is still a long ways out unless they try and extend him out early to trade risk. I expect both Bo and Vlad will have egregious financial expectations and someone will overpay. A lot will depend on how Rogers is willing to spend. This FO has gotten more than I thought they would out of them.

 

Could see Lourdes with his cheap contract and even Teo rolled out in a deal(s) etc this season. 3 Catchers and Biggio has enhanced his value.

[RustyTrombone]

Garcia and Jansen start a rehab assignment today. On track to come back after this road trip potentially.

[Solaxys]

What are your guys thoughts on Joc Pederson btw? His contract with Giants is done this year and he's LHH + OF.

[G-Snarls]

HAVE to beat up on Oakland while the Rays and Red Sox play each other...

[Solaxys]

Just saw a rumour that the tigers are interested in Jansen.

 

If we trust our scouting and we like guys in their system, I’d totally do a Soto plus 2/3 prospects and another reliever deal. They usually have pretty good pitching prospects.

 

You think Tigers would give up four guys for Jansen? Especially considering Soto has 4y of control by himself.

 

Lange has more elite stuff I think.

 

I can see something like Jansen + some minor arm for Soto/Lange + Chafin/Fulmer

Or they just do Chafin/Fulmer (for immediate relief help) + minor prospects.

 

---

 

Any shot in hell we can get Lopez from Os btw?

[BigCecil]

What are your guys thoughts on Joc Pederson btw? His contract with Giants is done this year and he's LHH + OF.

 

He has been great this year on a rebound. He had some bad years against LHP and his best OF days are over. He used to play CF. He is very handy LHH to have around but wouldn't want to over pay for him given his limited defensive playing options and regression risk.

[Dagagad]

You think Tigers would give up four guys for Jansen? Especially considering Soto has 4y of control by himself.

 

Lange has more elite stuff I think.

 

I can see something like Jansen + some minor arm for Soto/Lange + Chafin/Fulmer

Or they just do Chafin/Fulmer (for immediate relief help) + minor prospects.

 

---

 

Any shot in hell we can get Lopez from Os btw?

 

If they don’t want to give Soto, I’m fine giving up prospects to get relievers elsewhere.

 

I’m not giving up Jansen unless it’s to an org that has good pitching depth and players that I think are underrated, and I want a haul of prospects.

 

I don’t want to trade Jansen for immediate major league needs.

[Eat My Shatkins]

The Jays don't have to trade Jansen, so if somebody wants him they better make that team pay a premium.

[Dagagad]

The Jays don't have to trade Jansen, so if somebody wants him they better make that team pay a premium.

 

Exactly. Also I know the rays gave up Adames for two relievers but one of those relievers has become a starter AND their system is loaded.

 

Ours isn’t. We need to trade Jansen for a big value return. Not to plug roster needs right now.

 

It doesn’t have to be any of the top 3 prospects Detroit have on fangraphs but I’d want 3/4 of guys we like below that.

[Spanky99]

Yimi Garcia, is rehabbing tonight in Buffalo and Adrian Hernandez has started a rehab assignment also for Buffalo, we could have these 2 guys join the pen shortly. Some good news at least.

[Solaxys]

Some people expecting a sustained contender window. With the $ we have in Berrios/Gausman/Springer and Bo, Vlad, Teo clocks ticking juxtaposed against our lack of cheap pitching depth thats not going to be easy. Manoah is still a long ways out unless they try and extend him out early to trade risk. I expect both Bo and Vlad will have egregious financial expectations and someone will overpay. A lot will depend on how Rogers is willing to spend. This FO has gotten more than I thought they would out of them.

 

Could see Lourdes with his cheap contract and even Teo rolled out in a deal(s) etc this season. 3 Catchers and Biggio has enhanced his value.

 

The first contention window will end in 2026 (this can continue of course but will be with a pretty different roster)

 

While Gausman & Springer are both signed through 2026 (34 & 37 ages at that time respectively), Vlad, Biggio and Bo will be free-agents at the end of 2025.

Berrios' contract also specifically lets him opt out after 2026 season.

2024 is the checkpoint to sort of redefine any holes we have in the roster and make the push.

With Ryu's salary coming off the books, and Chapman, Gurriel & Teo all becoming free agents during this year, - ~50M will be off the salary books.

2025 is when Kikuchi drops out and assuming everything's well with Tiedemann, he takes over.

 

Definitely don't think we re-sign both Bo and Vlad - doubt we'll have the payroll for that.

One we can afford because of Springer's contract falling off in 2 years (so they just back-end the contract).

Vlad will command ~25M/yr I think (unless we give him a contract early like they did with Franco), and imo the better of the two to re-sign.

 

I think we do trade Teo or Gurriel at some point - maybe this offseason, alongside Jansen

We need a spot to slot in a LHB that isn't DH because of how DH is being used by this team

They would both cost the same ~12.5M/yr (maybe a bit more for Teo)

 

But man, we pay so much for starting pitching.

This year: 21M for Gausman, 20M for Ryu, 10.7M for Berrios, 16M for Kikuchi; so basically ~67.7M in starting pitching.

Basically 39.3% of our payroll going towards 14% of our WAR. Crazy.

Hopefully we don't dish out another 20M AAV for a pitcher once Ryu's contract falls off.

 

Comparatively:

NYM --> 35% for 24% WAR (DeGrom eating this up)

NYY --> 24% for 30% WAR

Astros --> 22% for 26% WAR

Edited July 4, 2022 by Solaxys

[BigCecil]

Yimi Garcia, is rehabbing tonight in Buffalo and Adrian Hernandez has started a rehab assignment also for Buffalo, we could have these 2 guys join the pen shortly. Some good news at least.

 

Absolutely! Good news. We need that arm asap and hopefully he hasn't lost anything even temporarily. Mayza hasn't really yet been Mayza since he came off IL.

[Dagagad]

The first contention window will end in 2026 (this can continue of course but will be with a pretty different roster)

 

While Gausman & Springer are both signed through 2026 (34 & 37 ages at that time respectively), Vlad, Biggio and Bo will be free-agents at the end of 2025.

Berrios' contract also specifically lets him opt out after 2026 season.

2024 is the checkpoint to sort of redefine any holes we have in the roster and make the push.

With Ryu's salary coming off the books, and Chapman, Gurriel & Teo all becoming free agents during this year, - ~50M will be off the salary books.

2025 is when Kikuchi drops out and assuming everything's well with Tiedemann, he takes over.

 

Definitely don't think we re-sign both Bo and Vlad - doubt we'll have the payroll for that.

One we can afford because of Springer's contract falling off in 2 years (so they just back-end the contract).

Vlad will command ~25M/yr I think (unless we give him a contract early like they did with Franco), and imo the better of the two to re-sign.

 

I think we do trade Teo or Gurriel at some point - maybe this offseason, alongside Jansen

We need a spot to slot in a LHB that isn't DH because of how DH is being used by this team

They would both cost the same ~12.5M/yr (maybe a bit more for Teo)

 

But man, we pay so much for starting pitching.

This year: 21M for Gausman, 20M for Ryu, 10.7M for Berrios, 16M for Kikuchi; so basically ~67.7M in starting pitching.

Basically 39.3% of our payroll going towards 14% of our WAR. Crazy.

Hopefully we don't dish out another 20M AAV for a pitcher once Ryu's contract falls off.

 

Comparatively:

NYM --> 35% for 24% WAR (DeGrom eating this up)

NYY --> 24% for 30% WAR

Astros --> 22% for 26% WAR

 

If we can develop our own pitching either ones we drafted/signed as int FA or ones we traded for from other guys systems over the next couple of years, then the window could continue. If we don’t it won’t. Cheap pitching is what extends window.