General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2022)

[Dagagad]

Again, where the f*** do you think arms come from lol?

f*** it. I'll do your research for you.

 

Rays

Their first postseason appearance of the Cash/Neander era was in 2019 (so, 3 yrs ago); lets start with 2018 though as it was winning season since 2013 (didn't make playoffs)

We'll look at their top 5 relief arms + anyone with more than 40 IP & <= 4 ERA (I'll highlight high K/9 rates and good FIPs) and see how they came to be in the Rays organization

 

2018

Sergio Romo [Trade] - who was traded from Dodgers to Rays after posting a 6.12 ERA in 25 innings in 2017. In 2018, he posted a 4.14 ERA in 67.1 IP, 4.04 FIP with 10.0 K/9. | Verdict: Average

Ryne Stanek [Top pitching prospect drafted in the 29th round by Rays in 2013] - posted a 2.98 ERA, 3.55 FIP, 11 K/9, 2.27 FIP after 4 yrs in the minors + 1 meh season in 2017. | Verdict: Elite

Jose Alvarado [international signing in 2012] - 2.39 ERA, 11.3 K/9; took 6 years to get to the majors. | Verdict: Elite

Diego Castillo [international signing in 2014] - came up halfway in 2018 (4 yrs later), and became the opener - 3.18 ERA, 10.3 K/9, 3.30 FIP | Verdict: Great

Chaz Roe [Trade in 2017] - this was a mystery, because he spent 13 yrs of his career just going around minor league organizations (including Yankees, who let him go within one season) and Rays picked him up, 3.58 ERA, 4.03 FIP, 9.5 K/9 | Verdict: Good

Yonny Chirinos [international signing in 2012] - 3.51 ERA, 4.19 FIP | Verdict: Average

 

So all in all, their best swing/miss pitchers were all long-term prospects. Chaz Roe was undervalued by the entire league but Rays turned him around to be decent, so props to them there.

 

2019 - Made Wild Card, lost ALDS

Chaz Roe makes a return from 2018; 4.06 ERA, 3.31 FIP, 11.5 K/9 Verdict: Good

Diego Castillo makes a return from 2018; 3.41 ERA, 10.6 K/9, 3.72 FIP | Verdict: Great

Colin Poche [PTNBL from Souza trade, three team trade] - 4.70 ERA, 4.08 FIP, 12.5 K/9 | Verdict: Average

Emilio Pagan [Another three team trade where Rays gave up a decent pitching prospect - Brock Burke, hasn't been the same since injury] - 2.31 ERA, 3.30 FIP, 12.3 K/9 | Verdict: Elite

Adam Kolarek [Rule 5 Draft] - 3.95 ERA, 4.53 FIP, 1.3 WHIP | Verdict: Meh

Andrew Kittredge [Trade for two failed prospects from Mariners] - 4.17 ERA, 3.56 FIP, 10.5 K/99 | Average

 

Trades (somehow fleeced the three-team trade shenanigans twice lol)/prospects.

 

2020 - Won division, lost WS [lets do 20 IP here cause of the shortened season]

Diego Castillo makes a return from 2018; 1.66 ERA, 9.6 K/9, 4.53 FIP | Verdict: Great

Nick Anderson [Trade from Twins for Jesus Sanchez (rank 76 MLB prospect) and Ryne Stanek (an excellent reliever, top pitching prospect, elite in 2018)] - 0.55 ERA, 0.49 WHIP, 14.3 K/9 | Verdict: Actually insane

Pete Fairbanks [Traded from Rangers for Nick Solak (rank 141 MLB prospect)] - 2.70 ERA, 3.04 FIP, 13.2 K/9 | Verdict: Elite

Ryan Thompson [Rule 5 Draft] - 4.44 ERA, 4.33 FIP, 7.9 K/99 | Verdict: Meh

Aaron Loup [signed a MiLB deal] - 2.52 ERA, 3.83 FIP, 7.9 K/9 | Verdict: Worked out well but its Loup

Aaron Slegers [Traded for cash] - 3.46 ERA, 3.04 FIP, 6.6 K/9 | Verdict: Not a swing/miss but he was probably their best relief pitcher outside of Anderson and Fairbanks; Great

John Curtiss [signed a MiLB deal] - career year in Tampa at 1.8 ERA, 3.35 FIP, 9.0 K/9 | Verdict: again worked out for them but never repeated those numbers again Great

Jalen Beeks [Traded from Sox for Nathan Eovaldi] - 3.26 ERA, 1.59 FIP, 12.1 K/9 | Verdict: Great

 

Trades everywhere; career years from Loup and Curtiss after signing in minors.

 

2021 - Won division, lost ALDS

Diego Castillo makes a return from 2018; 2.72 ERA, 12.1 K/9, 3.17 FIP | Verdict: Elite

Andrew Kittredge makes a return from 2019 (after injury): 1.88 ERA, 3.04 FIP, 9.1 K/9 | Verdict: Elite

Pete Fairbanks makes a return from 2020: 3.59 ERA, 2.7 FIP, 11.8 K/9 | Verdict: Good

Ryan Thompson makes a return from 2020: 2.38 ERA, 3.11 FIP, 9.8 K/99 | Verdict: Elite

Colin McHugh [signed a 1 yr, 1.8M contract post not playing 2020] - 1.55 ERA, 2.12 FIP, 10.4 K/9 | Verdict: Elite but Rays took the risk no other team wanted to because of his inconsistent relief across the 8 yrs in majors.

Jeffrey Springs [Traded from Sox for Ronaldo Hernandez (23rd ranked prospect for Rays) and Nick Sogard] - 3.43 ERA, 3.91 FIP, 12.7 K/9 | Verdict: Good

Drew Rasmussen [Trade from Brewers for Willy Adames & Trevor Richards] - 2.44 ERA, 2.86 FIP, 7.3 K/9 | Verdict: Elite not swing/miss though

J.P. Feyereisen [Trade from Brewers for Willy Adames & Trevor Richards] - 2.45 ERA, 4.23 FIP, 8.1 K/0 | Verdict: Great not swing/miss though

Louis Head [MiLB contract] - 2.31 ERA, 3.11 FIP, 8.2 K/9 | Verdict: Great not swing/miss though and in Miami atm, no where close to replicating those #s.

 

More trades, one risk. Their only consistent bullpen arm (Diego Castillo) came from farm.

 

TL;DR Rays traded their farm across 3 years to assemble the bullpen (Kittredge, Fairbanks, Anderson, Springs). They still have an excellent farm, credit to them though. Took them three years to set up the elite af BP

They absolutely got lucky in certain places with random career years that haven't been replicated (look at Andrew Kittredge in 2020/2021 v. his 3 other years in majors pitching 20 IP+) or three-way trades that somehow they just got the better end of.

There was zero high leverage FA signings, cause they don't spend money that way; they pick good MiLB candidates and if they work out, they promote. So sure, we can say Rays have better scouting to that end.

 

Bullpen arms do not fall out of the sky and more importantly, relief arms are not consistent - they might have one or two good years.

The rare bullpen arms that are consistent/super-elite are locked up into contracts or require you to trade top 100 prospects to get (look at Nick Anderson trade).

Randomly targeting swing/miss pitchers also just doesn't mean you are going to win the game - look at 2021 Rays; had the best bullpen assembled, lost ALDS.

The one time they went to WS? Carried by Anderson/Fairbanks duo just like King/Holmes are carrying Yankees this year.

 

Lets take a closer look at the Rays Willy Adames/Trevor Richards trade though - cause that ultimately came to Trevor Richards coming to us for Rowdy.

Could Rowdy have been traded for just one of those elite pitchers that Rays got over Trevor Richards?

TBH possibly - both haven't had that great of years with Brewers and Rowdy could've at least gotten Rasmussen by himself but Urias was struggling at SS and Adames was more important to the Brewers. They had Vogelbach at 1B who was posting similar #s to Tellez at the time in Toronto, so it was a very low prio trade for Brewers and they just flipped Richards from the Rays deal for him.

If we used Espinal instead of Tellez, we could've swung the trade in our favor but then our corners would be Vlad/Tellez or Biggio on a down year at 3B.

And then we'd also end up looking for a good 2B this year because Semien wouldn't be here, and there aren't many 2B that have produced as well as Espinal.

 

---

So ya, you want elite BP arms like Rays - we start trading our farm capital like I said in the previous post.

Cubs for a 37 yr old David Robertson and Rockies for a 37 yr old Daniel Bard are perfect candidates; having excellent years, rentals, and they'll be terrible next year.

Or dish out something like Moreno for Bednar and then lock up Bednar to a 4 yr deal (up to 2027) and hope he doesn't fall off.

 

Why didn't it happen last year? I don't know.

You had Kimbrel (ew), Hudson (Padres got him as a rental for an elite K pitcher in Thompson and #28 ranked prospect in system; he signed with Dodgers now), Rodriguez (Braves traded for this reliever for their 9th and 23rd best prospect; suspended atm due to taking PEDS), Iglesias (Wasn't traded; resigned with Angels), Kennedy (traded to Phillies for their #1 prospect + 2 other prospects; resigned with Diamondbacks after season ended), Graveman (couldn't sign cause of COVID restricted list), Rogers (wasn't traded then but then traded for Chris Paddack in 2022 with Twins, prolly a really good trade for Padres), Garcia (Astros traded him for 38th MLB ranked prospect and a reliever Pruitt for a rental; signed with BlueJays), Bard (wasn't traded by Rockies, still under contract through this year but def can be traded this year), & Michael Fulmer (also not traded by Tigers).

 

So like, who could've realistically gotten without shelling out the farm? Maybe Garcia?

And offseason, like I said, of the two pitchers with a high K%, Graveman and Garcia, we got Garcia.

 

---

Miami has 4 arms - Tanner Scott (who they absolutely fleeced out of Orioles for trades of two prospects, but Scott has been very inconsistent in his Orioles career; just putting up elite numbers this year), Steven Okert (signed in 2021 to MiLB contract - another McHugh situation, didn't play 2020 cause didn't want to get 'with the covid protocols'), Cole Sulser (same with the Tanner Scott trade), and finally Tommy Nance (despite having a blistering 13.3 K/9 and an upper 90 whiff%, he sports a 6.16 ERA, and a WHIP of 1.737)

 

So what? You think we missed out on Tanner Scott trade?

You think Os would trade inter-divisionally when they are gearing up to compete in a few years? Would you have given up prospects for a career 4.67 ERA pitcher (6 seasons), with a WHIP of 1.508 just cause he has a strikeout rate of 12.4/whiff% of 91 when he was traded?

 

You're right about Seattle.

They have Paul Sewald (2.6 ERA, 0.723 WHIP, 9.1 K; who was signed to a MiLB contract after having 4 abysmal years with Mets - 9.5 K/9, 5+ ERA, WHIP of 1.25), Penn Murfee (drafted by Seattle in 2018), Andres Munoz (traded to Mariners from Padres in a deal whose centerpieces were France and Nola; Munoz was not doing well in Padres minors after Tommy John, but he has 13.3 K/9 rate after coming to Mariners; huge injury risk and has 4.00 ERA, 1.3 WHIP, 4 BB/9), Diego Castillo (know all too well cause of the Rays; surprising trade that no one saw coming to get JT Chagrois - hasn't pitched much at all and IF depth since the Adames trade; again, doubt they'd trade within AL East), Matthew Festa (2016 Draft by Mariners), Erik Swanson (trade with Yankees where they sent Paxton to the Yankees in 2018 when we weren't even thinking of contending), Danny Young (12.3 K/9 but has 7.36 ERA, 2.455 WHIP, injured - and he was drafted by the Jays in 2015 first), Ken Giles (also was in Toronto from 2018 - 2020 - we traded Ozuna for him, posting elite K rates 14.1 K/9 in 2 of the last two years; went Tommy John surgery and we didn't want to resign him for the contract Mariners gave him 3.5M/y), Yohan Ramirez (10.8 K/9, but 7.56 ERA with 1.560 WHIP; traded to Indians this year for Santana to fill the injury of France).

 

So again, who do you think we would've gotten? Seattle took risks on two TJS players, got something good from Paxton trade, and otherwise drafts.

 

---

 

This is literally what I mean.

You can't just say "X team got it, why didn't we?" without literally going into details. Just because we need them does not mean they are available. Sometimes, teams pick up low-value assets and they turn extremely lucky (Rays last year) and also not (Mariners, Rays this year). How many of these MiLB signings or post TJS signings didn't work out? We'll never know 'cause they aren't here in the majors.

 

Unless you unequivocally have proof that there was an elite swing/miss arm available to Atkins on a platter, and he decided to do a 180 and go after a trickshot pitcher, stop assuming Atkins flat out ignores BP as a principle.

 

We have pitchers like Bowden Francis in our pipeline who we got from Brewers (when we got him, he had a 10.44 K/9 in AA, currently struggling in AAA), Adrian Hernandez (who posted a 15.7 K/9 in A/AA, and so far in AAA - 12.6 K/9), we brought up Max Castillo who is a swing/miss guy (10+ K/99 in AAA from Venezuelan league that we signed)

Other pitchers in our farm that are struggling but we'll see what happens: Fitz Stadler (12.88 K/9 in AAA), Graham Spraker (10+ K/9), Gabriel Ponce (10+ K/9), Jose De Leon (I think he was a dodgers draft but Atkins signed him to MiLB deal - 12.6 K/9 in AAA and MLB during his one stint with LAD).

 

---

 

Am I letting Atkins off the hook? f*** no. I was skeptical af about the Berrios trade and the contract thereafter. Kikuchi was w.e, he'll be gone in 3 yrs and we just lose money.

 

Bullpen is 100% an issue, but we are not that far away from a good bullpen.

We are missing two elite relievers (your Anderson/Fairbanks or Holmes/King combo).

 

Could we have gotten someone good at last year's deadline? Sure, but they were all rentals and giving up the prospects those teams gave up for a rental relief hurts my soul.

I rather have us do the Nick Anderson type deal (which again, this year would be something like Jansen for Brown + Abreu) that Rays did than the Hudson trade Padres did.

If we get Bednar, we have to lock him up cause he'll cost a fortune in prospects (like Berrios, it has to be done otherwise the trade will feel so bitter)

 

Could we have gotten someone before this year? We did, in Garcia. It wasn't enough but given what the hell was out there (I mean, Kenley Jansen?!) and available to us, it was good that we got someone even signed.

 

Anyway, this is my essay on this bullpen s***. lol. Exhausted going through all this history.

 

I appreciate all the work that went into this. I just skimmed it and I’ll reply more thoroughly later.

 

Just from a quick look over, the Rays front office is like 50% to 100% better at this than us.

 

The list of the trades they made is like a list of at worse good value all the way to steal after steal after steal.

 

Like, you can call that luck but that’s a lot of luck over a very long amount of time. Like that springs deal alone. He’s started games for them (on short outings) and he’s pitched very well this year. That’s insanely valuable for what essentially was a riley Adams return.

[Spanky99]

Again, where the f*** do you think arms come from lol?

f*** it. I'll do your research for you.

 

Rays

Their first postseason appearance of the Cash/Neander era was in 2019 (so, 3 yrs ago); lets start with 2018 though as it was winning season since 2013 (didn't make playoffs)

We'll look at their top 5 relief arms + anyone with more than 40 IP & <= 4 ERA (I'll highlight high K/9 rates and good FIPs) and see how they came to be in the Rays organization

 

2018

Sergio Romo [Trade] - who was traded from Dodgers to Rays after posting a 6.12 ERA in 25 innings in 2017. In 2018, he posted a 4.14 ERA in 67.1 IP, 4.04 FIP with 10.0 K/9. | Verdict: Average

Ryne Stanek [Top pitching prospect drafted in the 29th round by Rays in 2013] - posted a 2.98 ERA, 3.55 FIP, 11 K/9, 2.27 FIP after 4 yrs in the minors + 1 meh season in 2017. | Verdict: Elite

Jose Alvarado [international signing in 2012] - 2.39 ERA, 11.3 K/9; took 6 years to get to the majors. | Verdict: Elite

Diego Castillo [international signing in 2014] - came up halfway in 2018 (4 yrs later), and became the opener - 3.18 ERA, 10.3 K/9, 3.30 FIP | Verdict: Great

Chaz Roe [Trade in 2017] - this was a mystery, because he spent 13 yrs of his career just going around minor league organizations (including Yankees, who let him go within one season) and Rays picked him up, 3.58 ERA, 4.03 FIP, 9.5 K/9 | Verdict: Good

Yonny Chirinos [international signing in 2012] - 3.51 ERA, 4.19 FIP | Verdict: Average

 

So all in all, their best swing/miss pitchers were all long-term prospects. Chaz Roe was undervalued by the entire league but Rays turned him around to be decent, so props to them there.

 

2019 - Made Wild Card, lost ALDS

Chaz Roe makes a return from 2018; 4.06 ERA, 3.31 FIP, 11.5 K/9 Verdict: Good

Diego Castillo makes a return from 2018; 3.41 ERA, 10.6 K/9, 3.72 FIP | Verdict: Great

Colin Poche [PTNBL from Souza trade, three team trade] - 4.70 ERA, 4.08 FIP, 12.5 K/9 | Verdict: Average

Emilio Pagan [Another three team trade where Rays gave up a decent pitching prospect - Brock Burke, hasn't been the same since injury] - 2.31 ERA, 3.30 FIP, 12.3 K/9 | Verdict: Elite

Adam Kolarek [Rule 5 Draft] - 3.95 ERA, 4.53 FIP, 1.3 WHIP | Verdict: Meh

Andrew Kittredge [Trade for two failed prospects from Mariners] - 4.17 ERA, 3.56 FIP, 10.5 K/99 | Average

 

Trades (somehow fleeced the three-team trade shenanigans twice lol)/prospects.

 

2020 - Won division, lost WS [lets do 20 IP here cause of the shortened season]

Diego Castillo makes a return from 2018; 1.66 ERA, 9.6 K/9, 4.53 FIP | Verdict: Great

Nick Anderson [Trade from Twins for Jesus Sanchez (rank 76 MLB prospect) and Ryne Stanek (an excellent reliever, top pitching prospect, elite in 2018)] - 0.55 ERA, 0.49 WHIP, 14.3 K/9 | Verdict: Actually insane

Pete Fairbanks [Traded from Rangers for Nick Solak (rank 141 MLB prospect)] - 2.70 ERA, 3.04 FIP, 13.2 K/9 | Verdict: Elite

Ryan Thompson [Rule 5 Draft] - 4.44 ERA, 4.33 FIP, 7.9 K/99 | Verdict: Meh

Aaron Loup [signed a MiLB deal] - 2.52 ERA, 3.83 FIP, 7.9 K/9 | Verdict: Worked out well but its Loup

Aaron Slegers [Traded for cash] - 3.46 ERA, 3.04 FIP, 6.6 K/9 | Verdict: Not a swing/miss but he was probably their best relief pitcher outside of Anderson and Fairbanks; Great

John Curtiss [signed a MiLB deal] - career year in Tampa at 1.8 ERA, 3.35 FIP, 9.0 K/9 | Verdict: again worked out for them but never repeated those numbers again Great

Jalen Beeks [Traded from Sox for Nathan Eovaldi] - 3.26 ERA, 1.59 FIP, 12.1 K/9 | Verdict: Great

 

Trades everywhere; career years from Loup and Curtiss after signing in minors.

 

2021 - Won division, lost ALDS

Diego Castillo makes a return from 2018; 2.72 ERA, 12.1 K/9, 3.17 FIP | Verdict: Elite

Andrew Kittredge makes a return from 2019 (after injury): 1.88 ERA, 3.04 FIP, 9.1 K/9 | Verdict: Elite

Pete Fairbanks makes a return from 2020: 3.59 ERA, 2.7 FIP, 11.8 K/9 | Verdict: Good

Ryan Thompson makes a return from 2020: 2.38 ERA, 3.11 FIP, 9.8 K/99 | Verdict: Elite

Colin McHugh [signed a 1 yr, 1.8M contract post not playing 2020] - 1.55 ERA, 2.12 FIP, 10.4 K/9 | Verdict: Elite but Rays took the risk no other team wanted to because of his inconsistent relief across the 8 yrs in majors.

Jeffrey Springs [Traded from Sox for Ronaldo Hernandez (23rd ranked prospect for Rays) and Nick Sogard] - 3.43 ERA, 3.91 FIP, 12.7 K/9 | Verdict: Good

Drew Rasmussen [Trade from Brewers for Willy Adames & Trevor Richards] - 2.44 ERA, 2.86 FIP, 7.3 K/9 | Verdict: Elite not swing/miss though

J.P. Feyereisen [Trade from Brewers for Willy Adames & Trevor Richards] - 2.45 ERA, 4.23 FIP, 8.1 K/0 | Verdict: Great not swing/miss though

Louis Head [MiLB contract] - 2.31 ERA, 3.11 FIP, 8.2 K/9 | Verdict: Great not swing/miss though and in Miami atm, no where close to replicating those #s.

 

More trades, one risk. Their only consistent bullpen arm (Diego Castillo) came from farm.

 

TL;DR Rays traded their farm across 3 years to assemble the bullpen (Kittredge, Fairbanks, Anderson, Springs). They still have an excellent farm, credit to them though. Took them three years to set up the elite af BP

They absolutely got lucky in certain places with random career years that haven't been replicated (look at Andrew Kittredge in 2020/2021 v. his 3 other years in majors pitching 20 IP+) or three-way trades that somehow they just got the better end of.

There was zero high leverage FA signings, cause they don't spend money that way; they pick good MiLB candidates and if they work out, they promote. So sure, we can say Rays have better scouting to that end.

 

Bullpen arms do not fall out of the sky and more importantly, relief arms are not consistent - they might have one or two good years.

The rare bullpen arms that are consistent/super-elite are locked up into contracts or require you to trade top 100 prospects to get (look at Nick Anderson trade).

Randomly targeting swing/miss pitchers also just doesn't mean you are going to win the game - look at 2021 Rays; had the best bullpen assembled, lost ALDS.

The one time they went to WS? Carried by Anderson/Fairbanks duo just like King/Holmes are carrying Yankees this year.

 

Lets take a closer look at the Rays Willy Adames/Trevor Richards trade though - cause that ultimately came to Trevor Richards coming to us for Rowdy.

Could Rowdy have been traded for just one of those elite pitchers that Rays got over Trevor Richards?

TBH possibly - both haven't had that great of years with Brewers and Rowdy could've at least gotten Rasmussen by himself but Urias was struggling at SS and Adames was more important to the Brewers. They had Vogelbach at 1B who was posting similar #s to Tellez at the time in Toronto, so it was a very low prio trade for Brewers and they just flipped Richards from the Rays deal for him.

If we used Espinal instead of Tellez, we could've swung the trade in our favor but then our corners would be Vlad/Tellez or Biggio on a down year at 3B.

And then we'd also end up looking for a good 2B this year because Semien wouldn't be here, and there aren't many 2B that have produced as well as Espinal.

 

---

So ya, you want elite BP arms like Rays - we start trading our farm capital like I said in the previous post.

Cubs for a 37 yr old David Robertson and Rockies for a 37 yr old Daniel Bard are perfect candidates; having excellent years, rentals, and they'll be terrible next year.

Or dish out something like Moreno for Bednar and then lock up Bednar to a 4 yr deal (up to 2027) and hope he doesn't fall off.

 

Why didn't it happen last year? I don't know.

You had Kimbrel (ew), Hudson (Padres got him as a rental for an elite K pitcher in Thompson and #28 ranked prospect in system; he signed with Dodgers now), Rodriguez (Braves traded for this reliever for their 9th and 23rd best prospect; suspended atm due to taking PEDS), Iglesias (Wasn't traded; resigned with Angels), Kennedy (traded to Phillies for their #1 prospect + 2 other prospects; resigned with Diamondbacks after season ended), Graveman (couldn't sign cause of COVID restricted list), Rogers (wasn't traded then but then traded for Chris Paddack in 2022 with Twins, prolly a really good trade for Padres), Garcia (Astros traded him for 38th MLB ranked prospect and a reliever Pruitt for a rental; signed with BlueJays), Bard (wasn't traded by Rockies, still under contract through this year but def can be traded this year), & Michael Fulmer (also not traded by Tigers).

 

So like, who could've realistically gotten without shelling out the farm? Maybe Garcia?

And offseason, like I said, of the two pitchers with a high K%, Graveman and Garcia, we got Garcia.

 

---

Miami has 4 arms - Tanner Scott (who they absolutely fleeced out of Orioles for trades of two prospects, but Scott has been very inconsistent in his Orioles career; just putting up elite numbers this year), Steven Okert (signed in 2021 to MiLB contract - another McHugh situation, didn't play 2020 cause didn't want to get 'with the covid protocols'), Cole Sulser (same with the Tanner Scott trade), and finally Tommy Nance (despite having a blistering 13.3 K/9 and an upper 90 whiff%, he sports a 6.16 ERA, and a WHIP of 1.737)

 

So what? You think we missed out on Tanner Scott trade?

You think Os would trade inter-divisionally when they are gearing up to compete in a few years? Would you have given up prospects for a career 4.67 ERA pitcher (6 seasons), with a WHIP of 1.508 just cause he has a strikeout rate of 12.4/whiff% of 91 when he was traded?

 

You're right about Seattle.

They have Paul Sewald (2.6 ERA, 0.723 WHIP, 9.1 K; who was signed to a MiLB contract after having 4 abysmal years with Mets - 9.5 K/9, 5+ ERA, WHIP of 1.25), Penn Murfee (drafted by Seattle in 2018), Andres Munoz (traded to Mariners from Padres in a deal whose centerpieces were France and Nola; Munoz was not doing well in Padres minors after Tommy John, but he has 13.3 K/9 rate after coming to Mariners; huge injury risk and has 4.00 ERA, 1.3 WHIP, 4 BB/9), Diego Castillo (know all too well cause of the Rays; surprising trade that no one saw coming to get JT Chagrois - hasn't pitched much at all and IF depth since the Adames trade; again, doubt they'd trade within AL East), Matthew Festa (2016 Draft by Mariners), Erik Swanson (trade with Yankees where they sent Paxton to the Yankees in 2018 when we weren't even thinking of contending), Danny Young (12.3 K/9 but has 7.36 ERA, 2.455 WHIP, injured - and he was drafted by the Jays in 2015 first), Ken Giles (also was in Toronto from 2018 - 2020 - we traded Ozuna for him, posting elite K rates 14.1 K/9 in 2 of the last two years; went Tommy John surgery and we didn't want to resign him for the contract Mariners gave him 3.5M/y), Yohan Ramirez (10.8 K/9, but 7.56 ERA with 1.560 WHIP; traded to Indians this year for Santana to fill the injury of France).

 

So again, who do you think we would've gotten? Seattle took risks on two TJS players, got something good from Paxton trade, and otherwise drafts.

 

---

 

This is literally what I mean.

You can't just say "X team got it, why didn't we?" without literally going into details. Just because we need them does not mean they are available. Sometimes, teams pick up low-value assets and they turn extremely lucky (Rays last year) and also not (Mariners, Rays this year). How many of these MiLB signings or post TJS signings didn't work out? We'll never know 'cause they aren't here in the majors.

 

Unless you unequivocally have proof that there was an elite swing/miss arm available to Atkins on a platter, and he decided to do a 180 and go after a trickshot pitcher, stop assuming Atkins flat out ignores BP as a principle.

 

We have pitchers like Bowden Francis in our pipeline who we got from Brewers (when we got him, he had a 10.44 K/9 in AA, currently struggling in AAA), Adrian Hernandez (who posted a 15.7 K/9 in A/AA, and so far in AAA - 12.6 K/9), we brought up Max Castillo who is a swing/miss guy (10+ K/99 in AAA from Venezuelan league that we signed)

Other pitchers in our farm that are struggling but we'll see what happens: Fitz Stadler (12.88 K/9 in AAA), Graham Spraker (10+ K/9), Gabriel Ponce (10+ K/9), Jose De Leon (I think he was a dodgers draft but Atkins signed him to MiLB deal - 12.6 K/9 in AAA and MLB during his one stint with LAD).

 

---

 

Am I letting Atkins off the hook? f*** no. I was skeptical af about the Berrios trade and the contract thereafter. Kikuchi was w.e, he'll be gone in 3 yrs and we just lose money.

 

Bullpen is 100% an issue, but we are not that far away from a good bullpen.

We are missing two elite relievers (your Anderson/Fairbanks or Holmes/King combo).

 

Could we have gotten someone good at last year's deadline? Sure, but they were all rentals and giving up the prospects those teams gave up for a rental relief hurts my soul.

I rather have us do the Nick Anderson type deal (which again, this year would be something like Jansen for Brown + Abreu) that Rays did than the Hudson trade Padres did.

If we get Bednar, we have to lock him up cause he'll cost a fortune in prospects (like Berrios, it has to be done otherwise the trade will feel so bitter)

 

Could we have gotten someone before this year? We did, in Garcia. It wasn't enough but given what the hell was out there (I mean, Kenley Jansen?!) and available to us, it was good that we got someone even signed.

 

Anyway, this is my essay on this bullpen s***. lol. Exhausted going through all this history.

 

Wow!

[keggy]

Jansen is such an obvious trade piece at this point though, he's gone instantly for the right return. The C spot is nailed down for the next 6+ seasons with Kirk and Moreno, even if Moreno never hits better than a league average catcher.

 

Problem is, who needs a catcher with 2.5 years of control left, that's on the way up, and has something they'd want to trade that doesn't impact their upward trajectory and that helps the Jays now?

 

I agree with Atkins on this one. Virtually every team in baseball should want a player like Jansen, which makes me question why we're so focused on trading him, for this year at least.

 

Moreno is an elite talent but he has like 500 combined PA above A ball. The deeper our catching situation is, the more guaranteed ABs we can get for Kirk at either DH or C.

 

Losing Jansen indirectly frees up more playing time for Tapia, which will probably cost us more wins than what we get for Jansen.

[Jimcanuck]

I agree with Atkins on this one. Virtually every team in baseball should want a player like Jansen, which makes me question why we're so focused on trading him, for this year at least.

 

Moreno is an elite talent but he has like 500 combined PA above A ball. The deeper our catching situation is, the more guaranteed ABs we can get for Kirk at either DH or C.

 

Losing Jansen indirectly frees up more playing time for Tapia, which will probably cost us more wins than what we get for Jansen.

 

As long as Springer and others need DH time, carrying 3 catchers does not make sense. I don't see how Tapia gets more playing time than he would anyway if one of the 3 catchers is moved.

[Laika]

Part of you kind of wishes Kirk was not a good pitch framer so they could just make him the full time forever DH and run the Jansen-Moreno tandem. lol.

[Laika]

Jansen is such an obvious trade piece at this point though, he's gone instantly for the right return. The C spot is nailed down for the next 6+ seasons with Kirk and Moreno, even if Moreno never hits better than a league average catcher.

 

Problem is, who needs a catcher with 2.5 years of control left, that's on the way up, and has something they'd want to trade that doesn't impact their upward trajectory and that helps the Jays now?

 

Houston

[Solaxys]

Seranthony Domínguez - 11.39 K/9

Adding an arm like Seranthony Dominguez would be a huge upgrade and he would still be under team control. Price likely will be high, though the Phillies likely will be sellers at the deadline.

Definitely an option but if Phillies are remotely close to .500 by the deadline, they aren't selling. They have burned the farm before because they were at .500 at ASBreak lol.

 

David Robertson - 12.10 K/9[/Quote]

Probably one of the better options. And can easily be paired with Happ to get a LH bat as well. Is it worth it? I don't think so but if we can do it without giving up the top 4, maybe.

 

---

 

To add to Spanky mentioning the Astros maybe the Giants too? Maybe the Indians or even the Mets?

Astros are definitely the best in terms of what we can get back - Hunter Brown + w.e; he's almost MLB ready - can be starter or reliever, swing/miss

Giants are interesting because of Harrison but that'd be a huge gamble

I don't know if Guardians would do it - most of their interesting pitchers are in AA and are studs

Most of Mets pitching is A+/AA, so wouldn't really fit our timeline atm

 

---

Just from a quick look over, the Rays front office is like 50% to 100% better at this than us.

The list of the trades they made is like a list of at worse good value all the way to steal after steal after steal.

 

I agree. They have made a lot of low-value deals that just worked out and it was good scouting on their part. Flip side is they get years like this where all the injuries strike.

Can definitely be jealous of what they made happen with what they had but we're just getting started.

Give it time for the contention window to fully materialize - 2020 playoff was not expected, nor was 2021 where 5 players were having career years.

And similar to Rays, we also gambled on Robbie Ray and Marcus Semien which paid off. This year, we gambled on Kikuchi and not paying off . C'est la vie.

Edited June 30, 2022 by Solaxys

[Laika]

Definitely an option but if Phillies are remotely close to .500 by the deadline, they aren't selling. They have burned the farm before because they were at .500 at ASBreak lol.

 

 

Probably one of the better options. And can easily be paired with Happ to get a LH bat as well. Is it worth it? I don't think so but if we can do it without giving up the top 4, maybe.

---

 

 

Astros are definitely the best in terms of what we can get back - Hunter Brown + w.e; he's almost MLB ready - can be starter or reliever, swing/miss

Giants are interesting because of Harrison but that'd be a huge gamble

I don't know if Guardians would do it - most of their interesting pitchers are in AA and are studs

Most of Mets pitching is A+/AA, so wouldn't really fit our timeline atm

 

f*** Happ. Just get Rafael Ortega. Clear Tapia upgrade and should be a fine bench piece, would not cost much.

[Dagagad]

I agree with Atkins on this one. Virtually every team in baseball should want a player like Jansen, which makes me question why we're so focused on trading him, for this year at least.

 

Moreno is an elite talent but he has like 500 combined PA above A ball. The deeper our catching situation is, the more guaranteed ABs we can get for Kirk at either DH or C.

 

Losing Jansen indirectly frees up more playing time for Tapia, which will probably cost us more wins than what we get for Jansen.

 

If we broke it down over 10 games.

 

- Kirk catches 2, DHs 6.

- Jansen catches 3, DH 0-1, pinch hits

- Moreno catches 5, DH 0, pinch hits

 

Does that work? That’s the lower limit to me to how much Moreno could play and it still be worth having him up. Maybe you could 4/4 him and Jansen.

[Laika]

Robertson + Ortega

 

For whatever, some lesser prospects.

[Spanky99]

Robertson + Ortega

 

For whatever, some lesser prospects.

 

I like that, 2 Birds with one stone.

[John_Havok]

I think the important message here is that the Jays have a rock solid foundation in place, and all that’s left is to grind down the rough edges, add the icing to the cake…or whatever other mixed metaphor we can come up with about the cream of the crop having already risen to separate the wheat from the chaff.

 

Putting the finishing touches on this roster by improving the pen and bench should be all that matters at this point. Aside from true all star players, there’s not much out there that will dramatically improve the starting lineup

[Brownie19]

Part of you kind of wishes Kirk was not a good pitch framer so they could just make him the full time forever DH and run the Jansen-Moreno tandem. lol.

 

Isn't the argument that we should simply DH Kirk so he's in the lineup everyday? When you have a young Edgar Martinez on your team, he can't sit 2-3 times a week.

[Laika]

Isn't the argument that we should simply DH Kirk so he's in the lineup everyday? When you have a young Edgar Martinez on your team, he can't sit 2-3 times a week.

 

Yeah but he's a 96th percentile pitch framer... so he's more valuable when he's playing the field.

 

It's kind of like Buster Posey. Although not the same of course.

[Brownie19]

Yeah but he's a 96th percentile pitch framer... so he's more valuable when he's playing the field.

 

It's kind of like Buster Posey. Although not the same of course.

 

Then we move him to DH when robo umps coming next year?

[Laika]

Kirk has 3.1 fWAR which is buoyed by 5.3 fielding runs and 0.8 positional adjustment runs.

 

If he were a full time DH that fielding runs figure would disappear and the position adjustment would be like -6 or -7 depending on plate appearances.

 

So you would be turning +6.1 on the defensive side of things to -6

 

That's the difference between a 3.1 fWAR player and a 1.9 fWAR player...

 

 

You essentially take a guy with 8 WAR superstar upside and turn him into a 5 WAR upside guy. Like going from Posey to JD Martinez.

 

It only makes sense to do that if the injury risks of playing the position are severe, or the playing time is much much less because of necessary rest. I mean it CAN make sense in some instances but that's a tough call.....

[Dagagad]

The most realistic scenario is that you bring Jansen back, play him enough to make it seem like you want to keep him and ‘reluctantly’ trade him right at the deadline.

[Spanky99]

 

The most realistic scenario is that you bring Jansen back, play him enough to make it seem like you want to keep him and ‘reluctantly’ trade him right at the deadline.

 

That's what they'll end up doing, the comment above by Atkins' is both correct and posturing. They should get a decent return either way we look at it.

[Brownie19]

Kirk has 3.1 fWAR which is buoyed by 5.3 fielding runs and 0.8 positional adjustment runs.

 

If he were a full time DH that fielding runs figure would disappear and the position adjustment would be like -6 or -7 depending on plate appearances.

 

So you would be turning +6.1 on the defensive side of things to -6

 

That's the difference between a 3.1 fWAR player and a 1.9 fWAR player...

 

 

You essentially take a guy with 8 WAR superstar upside and turn him into a 5 WAR upside guy. Like going from Posey to JD Martinez.

 

It only makes sense to do that if the injury risks of playing the position are severe, or the playing time is much much less because of necessary rest. I mean it CAN make sense in some instances but that's a tough call.....

 

It also depends on who's replacing him at that position and you have to consider the possibility that he'd be an even better hitter if he wasn't catching....but I do get your point. Once robo umps come to the majors, I suspect the gap will shrink.

[Spanky99]

It also depends on who's replacing him at that position and you have to consider the possibility that he'd be an even better hitter if he wasn't catching....but I do get your point. Once robo umps come to the majors, I suspect the gap will shrink.

 

No doubt they will, it would be by quite a lot. Thing is, when does it come? The MLB and MLBPA have to come to an agreement.

[Ehjays]

[Eat My Shatkins]

 

Thank crap the offense woke up since Berrios, Kikuchi and the bullpen decided to suck f***ing ass.

[max silver]

Thank crap the offense woke up since Berrios, Kikuchi and the bullpen decided to suck f***ing ass.

 

If this team can finally get the starters, offence and bullpen firing on all cylinders at the same time they will be able to go on an epic run reminiscent of the second half of 2021. Early on the starters and bullpen were good but the offence was s***, then the offence caught fire but the starters and bullpen were both s***. The team is good defensively and has an elite offensive lineup, but it would be a shame if this is all undone by bad pitching, particularly from the bullpen.

[Eat My Shatkins]

If this team can finally get the starters, offence and bullpen firing on all cylinders at the same time they will be able to go on an epic run reminiscent of the second half of 2021. Early on the starters and bullpen were good but the offence was s***, then the offence caught fire but the starters and bullpen were both s***. The team is good defensively and has an elite offensive lineup, but it would be a shame if this is all undone by bad pitching, particularly from the bullpen.

 

The good news is that this time last year the Jays were on pace for 84 wins (0.519%) and right now they're on pace for 90 wins (0.560%) so they are not only ahead of the game, but there is also more playoff spots. If they can get it all together again and go on a solid run in the second half they should be able to win 95+ games.

[Stangstag]

The good news is that this time last year the Jays were on pace for 84 wins (0.519%) and right now they're on pace for 90 wins (0.560%) so they are not only ahead of the game, but there is also more playoff spots. If they can get it all together again and go on a solid run in the second half they should be able to win 95+ games.

 

Yeah the Jays are still in a great position. I think a lot fans are a bit disillusioned with the fact the Yankees are historically good and they see the Jays 13.5 games behind 1st.

 

This is still a contender with an upgrade or two

[max silver]

The good news is that this time last year the Jays were on pace for 84 wins (0.519%) and right now they're on pace for 90 wins (0.560%) so they are not only ahead of the game, but there is also more playoff spots. If they can get it all together again and go on a solid run in the second half they should be able to win 95+ games.

 

That's why I'm legitimately baffled that some people are advocating for the front office to sell at the trade deadline. This team has a very solid base of talent and has yet to fire on all cylinders as a team, yet is still in a good position in the standings. It seems every time the club has a rough week or two some people tend to panic over a small segment of games where the team looks bad instead of looking at the season as a 6 month venture that is going to naturally have peaks and valleys throughout.

Edited June 30, 2022 by max silver

[Solaxys]

I'm honestly unsure of Bo more than anything.

June: 250/311/411 (722 OPS), 104 wRC+, 25% K Rate

 

After last year, the league looked hard on us and found holes for Bo & Vlad.

Vlad is slowly adapting (173 wRC in June) and Kirk behind him is definitely helping as his walk rate went up 2% - also I genuinely think May was that hand/wrist cause of Hicks and he compensated or something. His wrist is still bothering him and so he is DHing a lot more.

But Bo is just not getting there, he continues to chase erratically and so doesn't matter if Vlad/Kirk/Teo are behind him, he isn't getting pitches to hit and he is striking out. He's trying to be patient FOR SURE but then just decides randomly to not be patient lol.

Teo still continues to not have competitive ABs even though he is hitting better. wRC of 153 but K rate of almost 30% in June.

He was so good when he started getting locked in during the STL/Angels series, not chasing that slider off the plate - but started to chase that slider again the Orioles series and on

 

Like last night, comes in, 3 pitches, Ks. Bo fought a bit but also struck out on 2 ugly pitches. Vlad was robbed, he didn't go but the ump called him out.

Just annoying when your bottom of the lineup has more competitive ABs than the top - Chapman/Biggio/Gurriel/Tapia, all did work even when they didn't produce.

 

Maybe I am nitpicking, iunno, wtb 24% K-rate Teo again and wtb .800 OPS Bo again

Edited June 30, 2022 by Solaxys

[Eat My Shatkins]

I'm honestly unsure of Bo more than anything.

June: 250/311/411 (722 OPS), 104 wRC+, 25% K Rate

 

After last year, the league looked hard on us and found holes for Bo & Vlad.

Vlad is slowly adapting (173 wRC in June) and Kirk behind him is definitely helping as his walk rate went up 2% - also I genuinely think May was that hand/wrist cause of Hicks and he compensated or something. His wrist is still bothering him and so he is DHing a lot more.

But Bo is just not getting there, he continues to chase erratically and so doesn't matter if Vlad/Kirk/Teo are behind him, he isn't getting pitches to hit and he is striking out.

Teo still continues to not have competitive ABs even though he is hitting better. wRC of 153 but K rate of almost 30% in June.

 

Like last night, comes in, 3 pitches Ks. Bo fought a bit but also struck out on 2 ugly pitches. Vlad was robbed, he didn't go but the ump called him out.

Just annoying when your bottom of the lineup has more competitive ABs than the top - Chapman/Biggio/Gurriel/Tapia, all did work even when they didn't produce.

 

Maybe I am nitpicking, iunno, wtb 24% K-rate Teo again and wtb .800 OPS Bo again

 

 

The Jays AL ranks are:

 

wRC+ - 3rd

SLG - 2nd

OBP - 2nd

Offensive fWAR - 2nd

Position player fWAR - 3rd

 

And that's after a pretty bad start to the season.

 

They're fine as a group IMO.

 

I'm all for upgrades if possible (I want Correa this off season), but I wouldn't be too worried about any of their starters. Not really any big holes in there.

 

The bench OF's are not good, the bullpen is not good, and two of the starters are not good (but could be if they get their s*** together)

[max silver]

I'm honestly unsure of Bo more than anything.

June: 250/311/411 (722 OPS), 104 wRC+, 25% K Rate

 

After last year, the league looked hard on us and found holes for Bo & Vlad.

Vlad is slowly adapting (173 wRC in June) and Kirk behind him is definitely helping as his walk rate went up 2% - also I genuinely think May was that hand/wrist cause of Hicks and he compensated or something. His wrist is still bothering him and so he is DHing a lot more.

But Bo is just not getting there, he continues to chase erratically and so doesn't matter if Vlad/Kirk/Teo are behind him, he isn't getting pitches to hit and he is striking out. He's trying to be patient FOR SURE but then just decides randomly to not be patient lol.

Teo still continues to not have competitive ABs even though he is hitting better. wRC of 153 but K rate of almost 30% in June.

 

Like last night, comes in, 3 pitches Ks. Bo fought a bit but also struck out on 2 ugly pitches. Vlad was robbed, he didn't go but the ump called him out.

Just annoying when your bottom of the lineup has more competitive ABs than the top - Chapman/Biggio/Gurriel/Tapia, all did work even when they didn't produce.

 

Maybe I am nitpicking, iunno, wtb 24% K-rate Teo again and wtb .800 OPS Bo again

 

I think Bo is just in a bit of a slump. For the first three weeks of June he was right at his career average with a 118 WRC+. His k rate was 23.2%, and his walk rate was nice at 9.5%. The last week has been pretty rough with a 54 WRC+ and walk rate of 3.7% and k rate of 33.3%. The small sample of bad at bats has a large effect on the overall numbers for the month. When we look at a larger sample of games, going back two months he's produced a 125 WRC+, and been worth 1.6 FWAR. This is a 6 win pace over a full season. He's far too talented of a player for this to be more than a bit of a speed bump where he's battling a bit.

 

This appears to be much the same situation for Teoscar as well. For the first three weeks of June he really mashed, with a 180 WRC+, 5.7% walk rate and 26.4% k rate. The last week has been a struggle with a 41 WRC+, 0% walk rate and 38.1% k rate. Just like Bo we've seen enough of him by this point to know this is nothing more than a slump as he's had plenty of time to establish himself as a well above average hitter. Going back over his last 2 full seasons worth of play he's about a 4 win player per season and a 130 WRC+ bat. He'll emerge from this and continue to mash once again.

Edited June 30, 2022 by max silver
added Teo

[Terminator]

The Jays AL ranks are:

 

wRC+ - 3rd

SLG - 2nd

OBP - 2nd

Offensive fWAR - 2nd

Position player fWAR - 3rd

 

And that's after a pretty bad start to the season.

 

They're fine as a group IMO.

 

I'm all for upgrades if possible (I want Correa this off season), but I wouldn't be too worried about any of their starters. Not really any big holes in there.

 

The bench OF's are not good, the bullpen is not good, and two of the starters are not good (but could be if they get their s*** together)

 

What do we want Correa for?