General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2022)

[Olerud363]

Definitely ignore all equivalent or worse numbers. Only WAR matters lmao

 

WAR combines all the other numbers... In what way is Vlad better?

 

2019 - Vlad was worse using every conventional number

2020 - Vlad was way worse than Soto using every conventional number

2021 - Vlad was better in power, Soto better in patience, they were equivalent

2022 - They are both bad (with respect to expectations) but Soto's elite discipline makes him better overall.

[Olerud363]

Keep trolling. Calling a strike a ball again lmao

 

 

What strike did I call a ball -

 

Swing 1 - not a strike

Swing 2 - borderline - plenty of times this pitch is called a ball, plenty of times a strike

Swing 3 - Pitch was a strike but low (I meant it was low in the strike zone)

 

Swing 4 - This was a strike, never said it wasn't

Swing 5 - 4 inches outside

Swing 6 - again borderline - sometimes called a strike sometimes not.

 

Also if he doesn't swing at the ball 4 inches inside or outside, then he doesn't have to swing at the border line pitches.

 

Laika mentioned a while ago that he thought Pillar could be really good if he made the same swing decisions as Alex Bregman.

 

How good would Vlad be if he made the same swing decisions as Juan Soto? Better than Soto for sure as he more raw power.

[Laika]

I was replying to LetTheBallFly who said they were equivalent.

 

One thing about Vlad is that he was the only guy ever to get an 80 hit tool from Baseball America... however there is no way he has an 80 hit tool... or if he does he needs some serious mental adjustments to get back to that level.

 

Looking at his stats cast page he is like 99th percentile in all the raw power things like max exit velocity, but like 70th in 'hit tool' things (like barrel rate, expected batting average).

 

results don't = tools

 

tools are just the physical ability

 

Vlad sells out a little bit for power

 

it's virtually impossible to have 80 hit tool looking RESULTS (contact and s***) and massive game power. And it's probably not the best approach.

 

He might have an 80 hit tool with 70 raw power

 

but he chooses to be a 70 game hit tool with 70 game power, rather than an 80 game hit tool with 50 game power. Or whatever - you can do a different hypothetical. It's just an illustration.

[Brownie19]

Saying a perfect pitch to hit is a borderline strike and shouldn't be swung at is just trash and lazy. Nothing was wrong with his ABs yesterday besides the timing. He swung at 1 bad pitch outside and 1 backup slider inside that he probably hits if his timing is good. He has done a good job of getting more pitches over the plate and taking balls when they arent pitching to him. Its a terrible take and just a stupid troll

 

As per Baseball Savant, in 2021, Vlad was in the 69th percentile for Chase Rate. This year, he's in the 30th percentile.

 

In 2021, he swung at 52% of the pitches in the 'shadow', 19% 'chase' and 5% 'waste' and he was at or slightly above league average in all 3 categories. In 2022, those numbers have risen to 56% 'shadow', 27% 'chase' and 9% 'waste'. in 2022, he's below league average for the # of pitches he's swung at in the 'shadow', 'chase' and 'waste' category.

 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/visuals/swing-take?playerId=665489&playerSet=hitters&year=2021

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/vladimir-guerrero-665489?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb

 

Pitchers are giving Vlad much less to hit this year and his approach and results are suffering accordingly. He's so good at making contact that he hits those pitches that are close or outside of the zone and the reality is it's really hard to make good contact on those and to do damage. Olerud is correct that until Vlad adjusts his approach and becomes more discipline, we're not going to see 2021 Vlad return.

 

Here's another article that explains it. https://www.mlb.com/news/vladimir-guerrero-jr-needs-to-adjust-to-pitchers

[Daniel Labude]

As per Baseball Savant, in 2021, Vlad was in the 69th percentile for Chase Rate. This year, he's in the 30th percentile.

 

In 2021, he swung at 52% of the pitches in the 'shadow', 19% 'chase' and 5% 'waste' and he was at or slightly above league average in all 3 categories. In 2022, those numbers have risen to 56% 'shadow', 27% 'chase' and 9% 'waste'. in 2022, he's below league average for the # of pitches he's swung at in the 'shadow', 'chase' and 'waste' category.

 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/visuals/swing-take?playerId=665489&playerSet=hitters&year=2021

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/vladimir-guerrero-665489?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb

 

Pitchers are giving Vlad much less to hit this year and his approach and results are suffering accordingly. He's so good at making contact that he hits those pitches that are close or outside of the zone and the reality is it's really hard to make good contact on those and to do damage. Olerud is correct that until Vlad adjusts his approach and becomes more discipline, we're not going to see 2021 Vlad return.

 

Here's another article that explains it. https://www.mlb.com/news/vladimir-guerrero-jr-needs-to-adjust-to-pitchers

 

So you forgot how to read....got it

[Solaxys]

We are going to ride or die with Vlad; he's too much of a superstar for Toronto and its fan base. (even if he isn't playing the part at the moment)

 

Flipside:

 

1. Do we trade for Benintendi or Bell, and who can we actually land given our current state of pieces available to trade? (Is it smart to trade for both considering both are rentals? I personally don't think so)

 

I rather have Benintendi personally as he is younger (fits the timeline if he chooses to extend with us), cheaper remaining salary, contact/OBP guy + slightly better percentiles in more categories than Bell (except max EV, Bell crushes balls), pretty good speed and played in AL East during the Boston days. This also lets us remove Tapia or Zimmer (Tapia preferably since Zimmer has better defense and speed) from the lineup.

Big problem is Yankees are also definitely in on Benintendi to circumvent Hicks/Gallo shenanigans, provide more OBP to their slug-heavy lineup. Do we have anything that can get that deal done? KC definitely doesn't need catchers.

 

2. Do you guys see one of the three catchers moving and to where? Pirates definitely need a catcher and could be a very good trade candidate for Bednar to come over.

 

3. One LHB might not be enough for this lineup and we don't really have room for two unless we trade Lourdes (Benny takes LF and then if we do go for Bell, DH/1B) - thoughts on that? any good trade targets for Lourdes?

 

Biggio working out for this lineup at 2B would be huge (adds a OBP LHB) but that is looking like a distant dream; hopefully he picks it up over June.

We could definitely use another reliever as well who is swing/miss but they might wait until Pearson doesn't work out/doesn't stay healthy since he is starting his AAA rehab

[Eat My Shatkins]

Bell would be an awesome add as a solid switch hitting bat, but as a 1B/DH he doesn't really fit anywhere, considering who our 1B is and how we use the DH.

[Brownie19]

So you forgot how to read....got it

 

What the f*** is wrong with you? Olerud is suggesting Vlad needs to stop swinging at and chasing borderline pitches. All the stats an analysis suggest this is true (which is why he called himself Captain Obvious). You took offense to him suggesting that 1 pitch in his 3 examples wasn't described correctly - and you provided some evidence that suggests you were right (big gold star for you). That 1 pitch was probably right near the border of the 'shadow' and 'heart' zones. You used that to suggest Olerud stop posting ********, called people whiny bitches and suggested everyone sounds like f***ing idiots....which is ironic when you consider you suggested Soto and Vlad are still equivalent. You didn't expand on what you mean by that, but they are the same age and one of them has posted almost 3x the career WAR and has a 20 point lead in wRC+, which suggests, they aren't equivalent at all.

 

You sound like a young child throwing a tantrum. Let it go.

[Ehjays]

 

Nerves of steel!!

[Ehjays]

Blue Jays Sign Eric Yardley To Minor League Deal

By Anthony Franco | May 31, 2022 at 10:18pm CDT

 

The Blue Jays recently agreed to a minor league deal with reliever Eric Yardley (h/t to Chris Hilburn-Trenkle of Baseball America). The sidearming righty has been assigned to Triple-A Buffalo, where he’s made a pair of appearances.

 

Yardley had opened the season with the Cubs after signing a minor league pact during the lockout. He made five appearances with their top affiliate in Iowa but served up ten runs on 12 hits and three walks in 4 2/3 innings before being released earlier this month. He’s yet to allow a run in his three frames with the Bisons, however, permitting only one baserunner.

 

The 31-year-old Yardley hasn’t yet reached the majors this season, but he’s pitched at the MLB level in each of the prior three years. The Seattle University product broke in with the Padres in 2019, making ten appearances. San Diego released him at the end of that season, but the Brewers grabbed him off waivers and kept him on the 40-man roster as a depth option for the next two years.

 

Between the two clubs, Yardley has worked 53 2/3 innings over 51 outings. He owns a solid 3.52 ERA in spite of a lackluster 13% strikeout rate and a fastball that averaged just 87 MPH last season, as his atypical delivery has helped him rack up ground balls. More than 60% of career batted balls against Yardley have been hit on the ground, and he’s typically had success keeping the ball in the yard as a result.

 

Not surprisingly, Yardley’s low arm slot has been quite a bit more effective against same-handed batters. For his career, he’s held righties to a manageable .242/.336/.389 slash line. Lefties, on the other hand, have teed off to a .312/.382/.468 clip in 89 plate appearances. Yardley adds a situational depth option to the upper minors of the Toronto farm system.

[Daniel Labude]

What the f*** is wrong with you? Olerud is suggesting Vlad needs to stop swinging at and chasing borderline pitches. All the stats an analysis suggest this is true (which is why he called himself Captain Obvious). You took offense to him suggesting that 1 pitch in his 3 examples wasn't described correctly - and you provided some evidence that suggests you were right (big gold star for you). That 1 pitch was probably right near the border of the 'shadow' and 'heart' zones. You used that to suggest Olerud stop posting ********, called people whiny bitches and suggested everyone sounds like f***ing idiots....which is ironic when you consider you suggested Soto and Vlad are still equivalent. You didn't expand on what you mean by that, but they are the same age and one of them has posted almost 3x the career WAR and has a 20 point lead in wRC+, which suggests, they aren't equivalent at all.

 

You sound like a young child throwing a tantrum. Let it go.

 

In the last two weeks Vlad has been much better at taking balls and getting pitches in the zone. Last night included and even the ABs he described. It wasn't anything like the article is suggesting or what was the issue at the start of the month where he was pressing and umps were calling everything within 6 feet a strike so he had to swing. Its ******** and had nothing to do with the results of the abs last night. He had pitches to hit and some good ones. Its timing 100%. Your shadow zone of middle in is the pitch Vlad will want 100 times out of a 100. To say its a borderline ball and use it to support a ******** argument about those ABs is ******** and will be described as such. Vlad has improved the swinging outside the zone greatly. Last night included. f*** off with the ******** 2nd grade made up stuff calling a perfect pitch to hit a ball, a strike up and in a probable ball, or a strike middle in on the corner a pitch Vlad shouldn't swing at. f*** off and learn baseball. There were 2 pitches he shouldn't have swung at and 1 wasn't bad at all

[Dagagad]

results don't = tools

 

tools are just the physical ability

 

Vlad sells out a little bit for power

 

it's virtually impossible to have 80 hit tool looking RESULTS (contact and s***) and massive game power. And it's probably not the best approach.

 

He might have an 80 hit tool with 70 raw power

 

but he chooses to be a 70 game hit tool with 70 game power, rather than an 80 game hit tool with 50 game power. Or whatever - you can do a different hypothetical. It's just an illustration.

 

This is a good point. I will say though if that is his goal, then he needs to be way more selective. It’s hard to get optimal results with that strategy and swing off the plate or even on the plate at marginal pitches early in counts.

 

It’s hard to hit pitches hard in the air that are off the plate or on the edges.

[Dagagad]

Saying a perfect pitch to hit is a borderline strike and shouldn't be swung at is just trash and lazy. Nothing was wrong with his ABs yesterday besides the timing. He swung at 1 bad pitch outside and 1 backup slider inside that he probably hits if his timing is good. He has done a good job of getting more pitches over the plate and taking balls when they arent pitching to him. Its a terrible take and just a stupid troll

 

The second at bat wasnt a good at bat. He’s hitting against a great pitcher with a good put out pitch. You can’t swing off the plate inside 2-0. You have to take that pitch. You either go 2-1 or hit something weak most likely.

 

These are high standards but one thing you always notice about trout is he rarely chases that kind of pitch.

[Dagagad]

We are going to ride or die with Vlad; he's too much of a superstar for Toronto and its fan base. (even if he isn't playing the part at the moment)

 

Flipside:

 

1. Do we trade for Benintendi or Bell, and who can we actually land given our current state of pieces available to trade? (Is it smart to trade for both considering both are rentals? I personally don't think so)

 

I rather have Benintendi personally as he is younger (fits the timeline if he chooses to extend with us), cheaper remaining salary, contact/OBP guy + slightly better percentiles in more categories than Bell (except max EV, Bell crushes balls), pretty good speed and played in AL East during the Boston days. This also lets us remove Tapia or Zimmer (Tapia preferably since Zimmer has better defense and speed) from the lineup.

Big problem is Yankees are also definitely in on Benintendi to circumvent Hicks/Gallo shenanigans, provide more OBP to their slug-heavy lineup. Do we have anything that can get that deal done? KC definitely doesn't need catchers.

 

2. Do you guys see one of the three catchers moving and to where? Pirates definitely need a catcher and could be a very good trade candidate for Bednar to come over.

 

3. One LHB might not be enough for this lineup and we don't really have room for two unless we trade Lourdes (Benny takes LF and then if we do go for Bell, DH/1B) - thoughts on that? any good trade targets for Lourdes?

 

Biggio working out for this lineup at 2B would be huge (adds a OBP LHB) but that is looking like a distant dream; hopefully he picks it up over June.

We could definitely use another reliever as well who is swing/miss but they might wait until Pearson doesn't work out/doesn't stay healthy since he is starting his AAA rehab

 

I think the rays would trade Jansen for a reliever or two they like and maybe a good prospect that doesn’t have to be on the 40 man soon. Kirk has more control.

 

I’m not sure what we will do though.

[Daniel Labude]

The second at bat wasnt a good at bat. He’s hitting against a great pitcher with a good put out pitch. You can’t swing off the plate inside 2-0. You have to take that pitch. You either go 2-1 or hit something weak most likely.

 

You can when its a hanging slider just backed up too much unlike the next two to Teo and Kirk that stayed over the plate. If his timing is good he hits it for a double

[Dagagad]

You can when its a hanging slider just backed up too much unlike the next two to Teo and Kirk that stayed over the plate. If his timing is good he hits it for a double

 

It didn’t though. It was 3/4 inches off.

[Daniel Labude]

It didn’t though. It was 3/4 inches off.

 

Yes, should be double if Vlad has his timing right

[Brownie19]

In the last two weeks Vlad has been much better at taking balls and getting pitches in the zone. Last night included and even the ABs he described. It wasn't anything like the article is suggesting or what was the issue at the start of the month where he was pressing and umps were calling everything within 6 feet a strike so he had to swing. Its ******** and had nothing to do with the results of the abs last night. He had pitches to hit and some good ones. Its timing 100%. Your shadow zone of middle in is the pitch Vlad will want 100 times out of a 100. To say its a borderline ball and use it to support a ******** argument about those ABs is ******** and will be described as such. Vlad has improved the swinging outside the zone greatly. Last night included. f*** off with the ******** 2nd grade made up stuff calling a perfect pitch to hit a ball, a strike up and in a probable ball, or a strike middle in on the corner a pitch Vlad shouldn't swing at. f*** off and learn baseball. There were 2 pitches he shouldn't have swung at and 1 wasn't bad at all

 

Are you capable of relaying a point without all the swearing and putdowns? It's kind of embarrassing. That said, I can't say I disagree with what you're saying - it has improved of the past few weeks. Can't you just say that and provide some evidence instead of attacking someone?

 

Let's hope this approach continues and the results follow. Pitchers have adjusted to Vlad, let's hope he's now squarely in the process of adjusting back and is about to go on a tear.

[Olerud363]

results don't = tools

 

tools are just the physical ability

 

Vlad sells out a little bit for power

 

it's virtually impossible to have 80 hit tool looking RESULTS (contact and s***) and massive game power. And it's probably not the best approach.

 

He might have an 80 hit tool with 70 raw power

 

but he chooses to be a 70 game hit tool with 70 game power, rather than an 80 game hit tool with 50 game power. Or whatever - you can do a different hypothetical. It's just an illustration.

 

A bit of semantics but is plate discipline included in 'hit tool'? Is ground ball rate?

 

To me those are the two reasons I am not as impressed with his 'hit tool'. Strike-outs have never been a problem. It's not like he's striking out 200 times like some of the other power hitters, Stanton/Judge do. So is this decision to have more game power resulting in more ground balls and swinging at more bad pitches?

 

It could be. Maybe he swings harder, starts his swing earlier so this results in more out of zone swings and he 'just misses' more pitches, but for him a 'just miss' is a ground ball, instead of swing and miss.

[Brownie19]

I think the rays would trade Jansen for a reliever or two they like and maybe a good prospect that doesn’t have to be on the 40 man soon. Kirk has more control.

 

I’m not sure what we will do though.

 

I can guarantee you this isn't what the Jays should do...

[Dagagad]

Yes, should be double if Vlad has his timing right

 

So, he should swing at pitches 3/4 inches off the plate because if his timing was right he could hit them for doubles?

 

I’m struggling to see your point.

[Dagagad]

I can guarantee you this isn't what the Jays should do...

 

I don’t think we will either but that’s basically what the rays did last year.

[Daniel Labude]

Are you capable of relaying a point without all the swearing and putdowns? It's kind of embarrassing. That said, I can't say I disagree with what you're saying - it has improved of the past few weeks. Can't you just say that and provide some evidence instead of attacking someone?

 

Let's hope this approach continues and the results follow. Pitchers have adjusted to Vlad, let's hope he's now squarely in the process of adjusting back and is about to go on a tear.

 

You said and I quote "What the f*** is wrong with you"

 

Then you say and I quote "Are you capable of relaying a point without all the swearing or putdowns"

 

Classic troll

[Olerud363]

The second at bat wasnt a good at bat. He’s hitting against a great pitcher with a good put out pitch. You can’t swing off the plate inside 2-0. You have to take that pitch. You either go 2-1 or hit something weak most likely.

 

These are high standards but one thing you always notice about trout is he rarely chases that kind of pitch.

 

 

If you look at the at bats in question and consider all the border line pitches strikes, Vlad still swung at 40% of the balls, and 100% of the strikes. There were 9 pitches and he swung 6 times, for a swing rate of 66.7%. In the long term that kind of swing rate would be disastrous.

[Brownie19]

You said and I quote "What the f*** is wrong with you"

 

Then you say and I quote "Are you capable of relaying a point without all the swearing or putdowns"

 

Classic troll

 

I asked 'what the f*** is wrong with you' because your response to my post was about how I can't read - which was childish. Don't call me a troll please.

[Laika]

A bit of semantics but is plate discipline included in 'hit tool'? Is ground ball rate?

 

No and no.

[Olerud363]

No and no.

 

So you can have a 60% ground ball rate, and horrible plate discipline but still have a great hit tool?

 

Hit tool has to be related to line drive rate and barrel rate which is related to ground ball rate...

 

When they said Vlad had an 80 hit tool I pictured a guy hitting line drives and taking close pitches.

[Olerud363]

No and no.

 

If hit tool doesn't include ground ball rate and plate discipline why doesn't Tapia have a great hit tool? All that's preventing him from being a great hitter is the 55% lifetime ground ball rate and 40% O-swing rate.

 

80 hitter (ie Albert Pujols 2001-2011) = 20% line drive rate, 40% ground ball rate, 40% fly ball rate, 20% out-of-zone swing rate.

 

Who is an 80 hitter without that profile? Interestingly the one thing that decayed in Pujols profile as he decayed was out-of-zone swing rate... went from under 20 to 35.

[Laika]

So you can have a 60% ground ball rate, and horrible plate discipline but still have a great hit tool?

 

Hit tool has to be related to line drive rate and barrel rate which is related to ground ball rate...

 

When they said Vlad had an 80 hit tool I pictured a guy hitting line drives and taking close pitches.

 

it's just the ability to put the bat on the ball

 

you know this, man

 

you can have an elite hit tool and not be an elite hitter if you have no patience and no power

 

people put 60s and 70s on Raimel Tapia's hit tool

 

 

The theory is that tools are INNATE and cannot be changed. The other stuff is all skills, and can be learned to some extent. So when you are looking at 15 year olds, you care more about physical tools. You can teach them skills.

 

 

Now of course some of this is ********. We know that certain things like pitch recognition are probably to some extent just as innate as a physical tool.

[Dagagad]

I think hit tool is just more useful than plate discipline when scouting high schoolers and international guys as well. You can see if someone can hit from looking at their swing and their ability to make contact. It’s harder to tell a good eye because there are so many factors. Like the pitching might be so bad that they are good enough to hit outside the zone as a conscious choice (you can’t walk your way off the island). You don’t know if they will show that they can narrow their focus against better pitching, but you can tell (more so) if some 14 year old in the Dominican can hit.