[Rosenthal] - Jays still going after Ramirez to play 2B?

[Laika]

Cumulative probability >> your anecdote

 

My point is that it depends on the accumulation of the probability, meathead

 

10% WS odds in one season > 1% WS odds for seven seasons in a row, for example

[THANOS]

Which is kind of what the Rays do. It would be awesome if Shatkins takes a hybrid Rays/Dodgers approach. Would be optimal, and I believe their statements line up with this approach

 

Absolutely, that's the way to go about it. We have the flexibility, based on ruports of Freeman interest, to likely take our payroll up to 200M, so I'd rather do that with extensions to Bo and Vlad at this stage, rather than more high paid free agents.

 

Then we can let guys like Ryu and Chapman, and even Teo walk, and replace them with Pearson/Tiedemann, Groshans/Martinez and a cheap OF option in FA or acquired by trading Jansen or Kirk once Moreno is ready.

[Laika]

Honest question - would you rather be the Rays, Cards, etc. who are 'good' and make the playoffs 'most' years (say 60% of the time - not sure if that's what they've done - I'm guessing) over the past 15 years, but NEVER win the WS.....or would you rather win the WS one year and flame out after making the playoffs like 3 times?

 

I mean you take the guaranteed WS ofc but it doesn't work like that because there are no guarantees

 

In reality you can try to stack teams with like, 15% WS odds at best in any given season vs. try to be more consistently good without stacking teams and maybe having I dunno WS odds of a pew percentage points in most years. Like the Rays have 4% right now for 2022. It's all fuzzy math but that's the general picture.

 

IN AN IDEAL WORLD you are just rock solid good most years and have 10% odds all the time haha

[Jimcanuck]

My point is that it depends on the accumulation of the probability, meathead

 

10% WS odds in one season > 1% WS odds for seven seasons in a row, for example

 

I understand what you said, but my point stands. Anyone that has done multiple event probability calcs will favour the longer window. It’s pretty easy for the longer window to eclipse the short one. Like, extremely easy.

[THANOS]

Ramirez will be a tough get. The Indians are cheap but they aren't holding a fire sale. Unless they get their socks knocked off they have no reason to move him.

 

That said, it does seems like the market has shifted a little bit. It doesn't necessarily take massive prospect hauls with top-rated headliners to get guys with 2 years of control left like a lot here in think.

 

Kirk, Pearson, Biggio and Gurriel is a pretty damn big package (much better than the one the Braves gave up to get Olson IMO) and one that the Indians would probably consider. And that wouldn't take Moreno or Martinez (though I would be open to moving either for J-Ram).

 

Yeah, I'd much rather consolidate major league pieces for Ramirez than trade from the Moreno/Martinez/Groshans pool.

 

Let's keep the window open and the train rolling.

[BTS]

These are the existential fantasy baseball questions that keep me up at night.

[Laika]

I understand what you said, but my point stands. Anyone that has done multiple event probability calcs will favour the longer window. It’s pretty easy for the longer window to eclipse the short one. Like, extremely easy.

 

honestly, f*** you. why do I even reply?

 

you're the new grant

[Jimcanuck]

honestly, f*** you. why do I even reply?

 

you're the new grant

 

Learn to debate like an adult.

[Laika]

Learn to debate like an adult.

 

learn to delete your account

[lovemyjays]

No way Indians move Ramirez right now.

They'll see how the first half of the season goes before deciding whether to be buyers or sellers at the deadline.

[Terminator]

No way Indians move Ramirez right now.

They'll see how the first half of the season goes before deciding whether to be buyers or sellers at the deadline.

 

Yeah that's what I'm thinking.

[John_Havok]

No way Indians move Ramirez right now.

They'll see how the first half of the season goes before deciding whether to be buyers or sellers at the deadline.

 

Are the Guardians ever really a true buyer at the deadline though? Recent history says they dont really add big pieces at that point, they're far more active in the offseasons

[Stangstag]

I mean you take the guaranteed WS ofc but it doesn't work like that because there are no guarantees

 

In reality you can try to stack teams with like, 15% WS odds at best in any given season vs. try to be more consistently good without stacking teams and maybe having I dunno WS odds of a pew percentage points in most years. Like the Rays have 4% right now for 2022. It's all fuzzy math but that's the general picture.

 

IN AN IDEAL WORLD you are just rock solid good most years and have 10% odds all the time haha

 

2011-2021 timeframe

 

Would you rather be the Royals or the Yankees?

 

The Dodgers or the Giants?

 

The Nationals won in 2019 with arguably their weakest roster of the last 5 years.

 

The Braves won in 2021 with their best player on the DL for half the year and one of their best starters didn’t even make it through a full start.

 

Point is, f*** the “world series odds”, all you need is a team that consistently makes the playoffs each year.

 

I wouldn’t even be surprised if the Rays won the WS in 2022

[John_Havok]

2011-2021 timeframe

 

Would you rather be the Royals or the Yankees?

 

The Dodgers or the Giants?

 

The Nationals won in 2019 with arguably their weakest roster of the last 5 years.

 

The Braves won in 2021 with their best player on the DL for half the year and one of their best starters didn’t even make it through a full start.

 

Point is, f*** the “world series odds”, all you need is a team that consistently makes the playoffs each year.

 

I wouldn’t even be surprised if the Rays won the WS in 2022

 

If you want to Cherry pick time frames.... id rather be the yankees and dodgers since almost ever.

[Spanky99]

learn to delete your account

 

Bwahahahaha...

[BTS]

2011-2021 timeframe

 

Would you rather be the Royals or the Yankees?

 

The Dodgers or the Giants?

 

The Nationals won in 2019 with arguably their weakest roster of the last 5 years.

 

The Braves won in 2021 with their best player on the DL for half the year and one of their best starters didn’t even make it through a full start.

 

Point is, f*** the “world series odds”, all you need is a team that consistently makes the playoffs each year.

 

I wouldn’t even be surprised if the Rays won the WS in 2022

 

I'm still salty about the Braves win last year. They honestly weren't that good. With Soroka and Acuna out it was 3 good starters (but no aces), a mediocre bullpen that went on a run, and an above-average but unremarkable offense.

[Terminator]

I mean you take the guaranteed WS ofc but it doesn't work like that because there are no guarantees

 

In reality you can try to stack teams with like, 15% WS odds at best in any given season vs. try to be more consistently good without stacking teams and maybe having I dunno WS odds of a pew percentage points in most years. Like the Rays have 4% right now for 2022. It's all fuzzy math but that's the general picture.

 

IN AN IDEAL WORLD you are just rock solid good most years and have 10% odds all the time haha

 

This is the right answer! With hindsight you obviously take the WS win but building a contending team for a couple of seasons every decade isn't going to lead to WS wins very often. Sustainable contention is the way to go but that's not always going to lead to WS wins either. But that doesn't mean anyone should model themselves after the Marlins or Royals lol

[Terminator]

I'm still salty about the Braves win last year. They honestly weren't that good. With Soroka and Acuna out it was 3 good starters (but no aces), a mediocre bullpen that went on a run, and an above-average but unremarkable offense.

 

Same, that team sucked ass but they snuck into the playoffs in a weak division and got hot. Jays were a far better team.

[King]

The final game of the regular season was traumatizing. I'll never forget the Nats bringing in Erick Fedde with a 3 run lead against the Red Sox. And everyone knew he was going to blow that s***.

 

Almost at the same time the Rays tried to close out a game against the Yankees with Josh Fleming on the mound.

[Laika]

This is the right answer! With hindsight you obviously take the WS win but building a contending team for a couple of seasons every decade isn't going to lead to WS wins very often. Sustainable contention is the way to go but that's not always going to lead to WS wins either. But that doesn't mean anyone should model themselves after the Marlins or Royals lol

 

Yeah it just depends on all factors. Team payroll, competitive environment, a bunch of other things.

 

Some teams can be pretty damn good every year.

Some teams need to take more deliberate shots in shorter windows.

 

It would be silly for a team like the Dodgers to get too aggressive in a short window because they can be strong competitors every single year.

It might be silly for a team like the, I dunno, Orioles to even try to be good all the time because they are in a tough division and for payroll and competency reasons their best strategy is probably to go f***ing all in if the gods ever bless them with a couple of homegrown superstars again.

[Jimcanuck]

Best for the O’s to emulate the Rays, with a higher payroll of course

[Laika]

They can't emulate the Rays because they are the f***ing Orioles and they are dumb as s***.

[John_Havok]

They can't emulate the Rays because they are the f***ing Orioles and they are dumb as s***.

 

This.

 

I'd much rather the Os keep emulating the Os. Keep up the great work!

[lovemyjays]

Jays need to pivot to Votto. An actual attainable piece. Ramirez is a pipe dream that will cost too much right now.

[Deadpool]

Jays need to pivot to Votto. An actual attainable piece. Ramirez is a pipe dream that will cost too much right now.

 

The Jays are absolutely set, and they definitely do not need a 38 year old 1B making $22.5M.

 

They also don't need Ramirez. Or Freeman. Chapman was the last offensive piece they need, barring maybe a bench/util type. They also could possibly use some bullpen help.

[Terminator]

I remember the Jays had a short window recently, no WS.

 

What's your point Jim?

[G-Snarls]

The fact they're trying to add at 2B suggests they're not high on Biggio yes?

[G-Snarls]

The Jays are absolutely set, and they definitely do not need a 38 year old 1B making $22.5M.

 

They also don't need Ramirez. Or Freeman. Chapman was the last offensive piece they need, barring maybe a bench/util type. They also could possibly use some bullpen help.

 

Agreed

 

I'm done of I'm them other than gradually tweaking the bullpen

 

Team looks GREAT as is

[Plat]

Holy crap, this team is stacked as it is...imagine if they get Ramirez. WOW

[Eat My Shatkins]

Haha. We don't need a 1B

 

The only way it made sense to go after Freeman was if Vlad was going back to 3B at least partially. That isn't happening now with Chapman being brought in.

 

I'm not sure it ever made sense to go after Votto.