Around Baseball 2022

[connorp]

Correa will get 10 or 11 at 35 million probably. This offseason is wonderful

 

Not really man. It’s showing that payrolls and salaries aren’t going to stay stagnant. Jays can stay out of it and look smart for now, but eventually they’ll have to leave their comfort zone. Nothing wrong with waiting to see the long-term picture though

[Key22]

The last time the Jays won the world series they had the highest payroll in baseball.

 

Just saying - if the Jays are not a top 5 spending club they're probably not winning anything. And we don't have the benefit of top 3 draft picks every year for half a decade to improve internally.

[Jays24]

Holy f***... I'm happy Bogaerts is out of our division and even happier he left the Red Sox. The Padres are gonna be stacked next year with Tatis coming back too.

 

Soto/Tatis/Machado/Bogaerts - is this the best 4some in baseball?

[Carlos Danger]

Do the Brewers have anything we would want that they would realistically part with?

 

I would take Ashby and Ethan Small.

[BTS]

Not really man. It’s showing that payrolls and salaries aren’t going to stay stagnant. Jays can stay out of it and look smart for now, but eventually they’ll have to leave their comfort zone. Nothing wrong with waiting to see the long-term picture though

 

The best team in baseball over the last half decade has never spent more than 150M on a single contract, and has let George Springer, Gerrit Cole, Justin Verlander, and Carlos Correa leave via free agency because they valued financial flexibility enough to not risk an albatross contract.

 

The only mega-contract the Dodgers have given out has been to Mookie Betts, and they'd be an easy 100-win team without him. They've let Trea Turner, Max Scherzer, Zack Greinke, and Corey Seager walk via free agency.

 

The biggest financial commitment the Cardinals have is 160M to Paul Goldschmidt.

 

The biggest commitment the Braves have is 168M for Matt Olson, and that might have been a mistake.

 

The idea that you need to give out 250M mega-deals to top free agents to compete is absurd. The best run teams in the game have mostly been avoiding them and letting desperate orgs with a history of poor decisions make those commitments.

[Stangstag]

Holy f***... I'm happy Bogaerts is out of our division and even happier he left the Red Sox. The Padres are gonna be stacked next year with Tatis coming back too.

 

Soto/Tatis/Machado/Bogaerts - is this the best 4some in baseball?

 

Turner-Harper-Realmuto-Schwarber is probably better IMO or at least very close. Or Altuve-Abreu-Alvarez-Bregman

[Solaxys]

wow, 11 yr (41 yrs when he's done) with a no trade clause. what in the f*** preller.

[mellowgold]

Holy f***... I'm happy Bogaerts is out of our division and even happier he left the Red Sox. The Padres are gonna be stacked next year with Tatis coming back too.

 

Soto/Tatis/Machado/Bogaerts - is this the best 4some in baseball?

 

Yes.

 

Harper/Turner/Realmuto/Schwarber is pretty good too though.

[Solaxys]

like these contracts are insane and you wonder what Ohtani or Soto are going to command (can the Padres even afford Soto after all this, in 2y time)

[Stangstag]

The best team in baseball over the last half decade has never spent more than 150M on a single contract, and has let George Springer, Gerrit Cole, Justin Verlander, and Carlos Correa leave via free agency because they valued financial flexibility enough to not risk an albatross contract.

 

The only mega-contract the Dodgers have given out has been to Mookie Betts, and they'd be an easy 100-win team without him. They've let Trea Turner, Max Scherzer, Zack Greinke, and Corey Seager walk via free agency.

 

The biggest financial commitment the Cardinals have is 160M to Paul Goldschmidt.

 

The biggest commitment the Braves have is 168M for Matt Olson, and that might have been a mistake.

 

The idea that you need to give out 250M mega-deals to top free agents to compete is absurd. The best run teams in the game have mostly been avoiding them and letting desperate orgs with a history of poor decisions make those commitments.

 

Yeah pretty spot-on except you forgot Austin Riley/Braves. Houston seems to be smart with their signings and their biggest commitments rn are Bregman and Altuve both under 200 mil.

[max silver]

As some of the more obvious trade partners and FA drop off, there’s nothing wrong with an occasional worrisome groan. Get over it. No doubt they’re out there trying but no guarantee for a lot of reasons. Takes two to tango with everything

 

I'd have no issue with an occasional worrisome groan, but when every single post is whinging about an offseason that has only picked up steam a few days ago that gets old really quickly.

[Solaxys]

Apparently Sox were refusing to budge from 200M, Preller just swoops in with 280 lol

[Jonn]

The best team in baseball over the last half decade has never spent more than 150M on a single contract, and has let George Springer, Gerrit Cole, Justin Verlander, and Carlos Correa leave via free agency because they valued financial flexibility enough to not risk an albatross contract.

 

The only mega-contract the Dodgers have given out has been to Mookie Betts, and they'd be an easy 100-win team without him. They've let Trea Turner, Max Scherzer, Zack Greinke, and Corey Seager walk via free agency.

 

The biggest financial commitment the Cardinals have is 160M to Paul Goldschmidt.

 

The biggest commitment the Braves have is 168M for Matt Olson, and that might have been a mistake.

 

The idea that you need to give out 250M mega-deals to top free agents to compete is absurd. The best run teams in the game have mostly been avoiding them and letting desperate orgs with a history of poor decisions make those commitments.

 

I wish the Blue Jays could do that but they just don’t produce enough secondary talent. Yea every few years they got some big prospects that enter the mix. But Jays just don’t produce that kind of quality. Teams like the Dodgers and Astros just pump out quality talent or they go find it with stealthy under the radar trades. Even a lot of prospects the Jays have traded in the last few years have been mostly s***.

[connorp]

I wish the Blue Jays could do that but they just don’t produce enough secondary talent. Yea every few years they got some big prospects that enter the mix. But Jays just don’t produce that kind of quality. Teams like the Dodgers and Astros just pump out quality talent or they go find it with stealthy under the radar trades. Even a lot of prospects the Jays have traded in the last few years have been mostly s***.

 

Yeah this was basically what I was going to respond with. I mean if you could pump out and replace the talent, more power to you.

[BTS]

I wish the Blue Jays could do that but they just don’t produce enough secondary talent. Yea every few years they got some big prospects that enter the mix. But Jays just don’t produce that kind of quality. Teams like the Dodgers and Astros just pump out quality talent or they go find it with stealthy under the radar trades. Even a lot of prospects the Jays have traded in the last few years have been mostly s***.

 

I don't really see how allocating 15-20% of their payroll to one guy and paying him until he's 41 is the solution to that problem.

[connorp]

I don't really see how allocating 15-20% of their payroll to one guy and paying him until he's 41 is the solution to that problem.

 

Well, you actually see these similar market teams to Toronto like Tex, SD, Philly buying like 3-4 of those guys for good measure lol. I don’t tend to think anyone that is running a front office for a mlb is stupid. Like I think SD is perfectly capable to understand the ramifications of the Bogey contract as well as any of us. These franchises are just spending a ton to win and when you think they maxed themselves out, they spend more lol.

 

I mean the Jays don’t want to follow that path, which means the development will need to be a lot better. But it’s worrisome that those value contracts may start getting harder to find. Could be noise this year but seems prices took a big jump across the board

[Captain_Obvious]

I don't really see how allocating 15-20% of their payroll to one guy and paying him until he's 41 is the solution to that problem.

 

While I think this is a major overpay, it is more like 10% of budgets today and will likely become even less by the middle of the contract's life.

[BTS]

Well, you actually see these similar market teams to Toronto like Tex, SD, Philly buying like 3-4 of those guys for good measure lol. I don’t tend to think anyone that is running a front office for a mlb is stupid. Like I think SD is perfectly capable to understand the ramifications of the Bogey contract as well as any of us. These franchises are just spending a ton to win and when you think they maxed themselves out, they spend more lol.

 

I mean the Jays don’t want to follow that path, which means the development will need to be a lot better. But it’s worrisome that those value contracts may start getting harder to find. Could be noise this year but seems prices took a big jump across the board

 

I don't expect any of those three teams to be competitive 2-3 years from now. Houston, LAD, Atlanta, St. Louis, and TB probably will be.

 

But that's mostly beside the point, because I'm not suggesting that Toronto shouldn't have a competitive payroll. I'm saying that there are different ways of getting there - you can spread the money around and not take on the risk of a 300M contract. The Cardinals signed Willson Contreras for 5 x 17.5. If they were to also sign Ross Stripling for 3 x 36 they would have added about the same AAV as Bogaerts (actually a bit mroe) and likely improved their team more in the short term, without any of the long-term risk.

 

You don't need to shop at the very top of the FA market to spend money, or to compete at the highest level.

[BTS]

While I think this is a major overpay, it is more like 10% of budgets today and will likely become even less by the middle of the contract's life.

 

Toronto isn't going to be running a 250-300M payroll this year.

[G-Snarls]

 

Holy f*** what is this off-season.

 

Holy massive $$$$$$$

[Captain_Obvious]

Toronto isn't going to be running a 250-300M payroll this year.

 

I meant for SD, it is probably more like 10%.

[G-Snarls]

Also f*** the Red Sox

[xposbrad]

Toronto isn't going to be running a 250-300M payroll this year.

 

What's the highest payroll they ever had?

[Jimcanuck]

While I think this is a major overpay, it is more like 10% of budgets today and will likely become even less by the middle of the contract's life.

 

Yes, I wonder if some teams have assessed that inflation is going to run at 5% or so for a while yet.

[Deadpool]

Yes, I wonder if some teams have assessed that inflation is going to run at 5% or so for a while yet.

 

Inflation is cooling down, but who knows what will happen if China has an uprising of sorts and can no longer produce all of the worlds goods with cheap and/or slave labour. We live in unpredictable times.

[Ehjays]

[Laika]

Total $ Fangraphs Crowd Source projected for the top 23 FA signed so far:

 

$1.495 billion

 

Actual total $ for those players:

 

$1.975 billion

 

Biggest jumps from projected $$$:

 

Bogaerts (+112M)

Turner (+90M)

deGrom (+65M)

Judge (+60M)

 

The only people under projections:

 

Martin Perez (-19.35M)

Tyler Anderson (-4.5M)

Anthony Rizzo (-14M)

Josh Bell (-6M)

Joc Pederson (-350k)

 

It's not just big players seeing inflated contracts though. In terms of % increase over projections, these are the top:

 

Jansen (+166%)

Abreu (+82%)

Walker (+85%)

Taillon (+89%)

Haniger (+81%)

Bogaerts (+66%)

Nick Martinez (+63%)

deGrom, Clevinger both around +50%

[guylaroche5]

that Bogaerts deal is by far the worst of the offseason, absolutely atrocious

[Stangstag]

that Bogaerts deal is by far the worst of the offseason, absolutely atrocious

 

You just knew it was coming after SD missed out on Turner and Judge while reportedly having the highest offers on both guys.

[connorp]

I don't expect any of those three teams to be competitive 2-3 years from now. Houston, LAD, Atlanta, St. Louis, and TB probably will be.

 

But that's mostly beside the point, because I'm not suggesting that Toronto shouldn't have a competitive payroll. I'm saying that there are different ways of getting there - you can spread the money around and not take on the risk of a 300M contract. The Cardinals signed Willson Contreras for 5 x 17.5. If they were to also sign Ross Stripling for 3 x 36 they would have added about the same AAV as Bogaerts (actually a bit mroe) and likely improved their team more in the short term, without any of the long-term risk.

 

You don't need to shop at the very top of the FA market to spend money, or to compete at the highest level.

 

I’m not in total disagreement in regards to approach and not giving the mega deal until a player is 42. But it definitely seems less likely there will be contracts like say Gausmans. Not using the power of hindsight, it seemed like a fair deal at the time.

 

Rodon has the same limited track record of success, except with a significant injury history. If he gets $30m/yr it’s not good for Jays current budget and approach. Also, Vlad and Bo are smelling the cash. All the players are now I’m assuming. Could be noise but seems like stuff changed after this CBA