2021/2022 Free Agency Thread

[Ehjays]

[jaysguy44]

15 mil per, that seems a bit high, no?

[Grant77]

 

No thanks at that price. Good for him though.

[Abomination]

15 mil per, that seems a bit high, no?

 

It's actually a little lower than I was expecting.

[TwistedLogic]

I was hoping the Jays would take a look at Martinez. Amazing deal for the Padres.

 

[Grant77]

I was hoping the Jays would take a look at Martinez. Amazing deal for the Padres.

 

 

It's really hard to say if it's amazing or terrible without knowing how his repertoire has improved. He wasn't very good at all in his MLB time. The teams know, but we don't have much information.

[TwistedLogic]

Kikuchi's underlying metrics are good. He's a perfect option for SP5.

 

Why do people keep saying this? Kikuchi's career ERA is literally the same as his FIP and his 4.41 ERA in 2021 was somehow better than a 5.23 xERA. His K and BB numbers are also fairly pedestrian. Guy looked like garbage after the sticky stuff ban and he's never been that good to begin with.

 

I'm not going to begrudge a one-year prove-it deal to see what they can do with him but I sure as hell hope the Jays don't commit three years to him at a time where their payroll will start to get tight and they'll have to become picky with who they pursue.

[Brownie19]

 

Wow, that's a lot less than I thought he'd get in this market. Nice contract for the Cubs.

 

Pretty easy to see him getting $27M per year in '22 and '23 and can opt out entering his age 33 season. Seems like a lot of $$ for Stro, even without the long commitment. Why is Chicago doing this? they aren't contending in the next 2 years.

[connorp]

Pretty easy to see him getting $27M per year in '22 and '23 and can opt out entering his age 33 season. Seems like a lot of $$ for Stro, even without the long commitment. Why is Chicago doing this? they aren't contending in the next 2 years.

 

A lot of those Chicagoans are kinda dual loyalty, aren’t they? Prob don’t want to keep going torched earth while the team across the tracks is playing exciting baseball games. Play to win while rebuilding

[Brownie19]

Why do people keep saying this? Kikuchi's career ERA is literally the same as his FIP and his 4.41 ERA in 2021 was somehow better than a 5.23 xERA. His K and BB numbers are also fairly pedestrian. Guy looked like garbage after the sticky stuff ban and he's never been that good to begin with.

 

I'm not going to begrudge a one-year prove-it deal to see what they can do with him but I sure as hell hope the Jays don't commit three years to him at a time where their payroll will start to get tight and they'll have to become picky with who they pursue.

 

xFIP was about 3.83 over the past 2 seasons (200 innings) and throws 95 from the left side. That's all I was looking at (didn't really look into sticky stuff changes, but will take your word for it). I'm good with 3 years at like $30M or some 1 year prove it deal - but perhaps my comments are bit ignorant!

[TwistedLogic]

Kikuchi's Savant ratings are garbage and most of his expected stats aren't great. Career numbers of a 4.97 ERA, 4.93 FIP, 4.43 xFIP, 4.62 SIERA. Don't understand the fascination and I don't want the Jays to try anything more than a one-year deal for him.

 

Something like $30M over three can obviously go very right if they fix him but the risk of having $10M tied up in someone who could be another Tanner Roark is enough for me to want them to stay away. Shapiro already said the Jays aren't going to approach the luxury tax threshold and if we want them to pick up another impact player this winter, they'll be getting very close to that threshold in 2023 and beyond.

 

$10-15M AAV for a guy like Kikuchi looks fine right now but it'll look a lot bigger in a payroll crunch.

[The Iceman]

Why do people keep saying this? Kikuchi's career ERA is literally the same as his FIP and his 4.41 ERA in 2021 was somehow better than a 5.23 xERA. His K and BB numbers are also fairly pedestrian. Guy looked like garbage after the sticky stuff ban and he's never been that good to begin with.

 

I'm not going to begrudge a one-year prove-it deal to see what they can do with him but I sure as hell hope the Jays don't commit three years to him at a time where their payroll will start to get tight and they'll have to become picky with who they pursue.

 

 

 

He will be no bargain, he opted out of a $13 million deal with Seattle

[G-Snarls]

Pretty easy to see him getting $27M per year in '22 and '23 and can opt out entering his age 33 season. Seems like a lot of $$ for Stro, even without the long commitment. Why is Chicago doing this? they aren't contending in the next 2 years.

 

All the same things I was thinking

 

This deal would have made more sense for the Mets

[jerb]

 

Jon Heyman

@JonHeyman

 

Free agency mystery: Justin Verlander’s $50M, 2-year Astros deal (w/opt out) never was announced and presumably is not official. That means Verlander and Astros have to wait to finalize until a new CBA is done. It is unclear why the deal reported 2 weeks ago is now in limbo.

 

Kevin Acee

@sdutKevinAcee

 

Nick Martinez remains a free agent.

The deal was not completed before the lockout.

[Spanky99]

lol

[max silver]

Nothing wrong with a 3 year deal for Kikuchi if it's around 8-10 Per season. He's got skills, just needs to be fully unlocked.

 

Matz for an extra year at almost the same AAV would have been infinitely preferable in my view than spending this kind of money on Kikuchi on hopes that he might some day be good.

[Brownie19]

Kikuchi's Savant ratings are garbage and most of his expected stats aren't great. Career numbers of a 4.97 ERA, 4.93 FIP, 4.43 xFIP, 4.62 SIERA. Don't understand the fascination and I don't want the Jays to try anything more than a one-year deal for him.

 

Something like $30M over three can obviously go very right if they fix him but the risk of having $10M tied up in someone who could be another Tanner Roark is enough for me to want them to stay away. Shapiro already said the Jays aren't going to approach the luxury tax threshold and if we want them to pick up another impact player this winter, they'll be getting very close to that threshold in 2023 and beyond.

 

$10-15M AAV for a guy like Kikuchi looks fine right now but it'll look a lot bigger in a payroll crunch.

 

That's it - I'm off the Kikuchi bandwagon. Sign Rodon!

 

It will be interesting to see if the FO chooses to try and land another 'big fish' or spreads the cash out in smaller chunks to shore up the back of the rotation, the bullpen and the infield.

[G-Snarls]

That's it - I'm off the Kikuchi bandwagon. Sign Rodon!

 

It will be interesting to see if the FO chooses to try and land another 'big fish' or spreads the cash out in smaller chunks to shore up the back of the rotation, the bullpen and the infield.

 

I can't see them spending big $ on another SP. And there aren't many big $ free agent SPs left anyway. They'll probably find someone on a low cost 1 year deal, or work out a trade instead to add a 5th dependable starter.

 

They are probably willing to spend for an infielder and another strong BP arm.

[G-Snarls]

DECEMBER 2: The Associated Press reports the specific breakdown on Chris Taylor’s contract. He’ll be paid $15MM salaries in each of the next two seasons, followed by successive $13MM guarantees in 2024-25. He’s also guaranteed at least a $4MM buyout on the 2026 option, which is valued at $12MM.

[G-Snarls]

So Taylor got a 60M guarantee

 

I can see why the Jays didn't try to outbid the Dodgers in the end

[Krylian]

I guess MLB hit the pause button on this thread.

[Stangstag]

So Taylor got a 60M guarantee

 

I can see why the Jays didn't try to outbid the Dodgers in the end

 

Yeah no thanks on that price

[G-Snarls]

Yeah no thanks on that price

 

And it presumably would have taken more to actually get him away from them

[Ehjays]

[Ehjays]

Blue Jays Ready To Spend After Lockout

By Sean Bavazzano | December 2, 2021 at 11:15pm CDT

 

A recent report from Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith gives Toronto fans something to look forward to after MLB’s lockout draws to a close. In addition to having trade discussions prior to the league’s halt on transactions, the Jays reportedly also have money to spend on additional free agents. Nicholson-Smith identifies acquiring an infielder and additional pitching as remaining needs for the club.

 

It was already expected that the Blue Jays would raise their payroll coming off a highly encouraging 2021 season, but the offseason to date has offered mixed signals about how high the payroll can stretch. Despite handing out a big dollar contract to Kevin Gausman (and a smaller dollar contract to Yimi Garcia) the organization has already seen its three top free agents sign for rich contracts elsewhere.

 

The Jays ended the 2021 season with $154MM in payroll obligations, per Cot’s Contracts. Including arbitration projections, RosterResource currently places the Toronto payroll, for luxury tax purposes, at $161MM. Nicholson-Smith’s report, though, indicates that the $161MM mark can continue to be pushed further.

 

It’s also worth noting that the Jays most likely trade chips coming into the offseason were thought to be of the catcher variety. Numerous teams have now picked the catcher market clean, with the Yankees and perhaps the Guardians as the only remaining contenders with questions at the position. An intra-division trade seems unlikely and the Blue Jays certainly have non-catcher prospect capital to deal from, but a lack of demand for one of Toronto’s most abundant resources may drive them to upgrade via free agency.

 

Fortunately for the 91-win team, the free agent market still has options for a front office looking to upgrade its infield. Kris Bryant and, if he’s open to a position change, Trevor Story can be had at the right price to cover third base. If Toronto is aiming for a more modest expenditure, they can also target the lefty-batting Kyle Seager or reunite with switch-hitting Jonathan Villar to compliment Santiago Espinal at the hot corner. These latter two options would serve as insurance in case Espinal is unable to build on his strong 2021 performance or Cavan Biggio fails to bounce back.

 

The pitching market is less flush with options but continues to carry upside at various price points. Carlos Rodon and Kenley Jansen represent two players who, for a premium, can help anchor a rotation and bullpen, respectively. Looking into Danny Duffy or old friend Ryan Tepera would serve a similar function for a lower cost, should the Jays prefer to splash their funds around more evenly.

 

Of course, just yesterday it was reported that Toronto expressed interest in left-hander Yusei Kikuchi (courtesy of MLB Network’s Jon Heyman). For reference on how much the lefty may cost, MLBTR predicted a two-year $20MM contract for the starting pitcher. Yesterday’s report portrayed a competitive market for the lefty, however, with multiple three-year offers potentially shifting the projected amount it may take to sign Kikuchi. Regardless of who baseball’s best team north of the border pursues, it’s clear they will be active when they’re next able.

[Deadpool]

I can't imagine a reunion with Villar would be popular w/ the fan base...

[G-Snarls]

Masahiro Tanaka could have opted out of his contract in Japan to play in MLB but chose to stay there

 

Tanaka’s comeback season in NPB went well, as he posted a 3.01 ERA with a 20.19% strikeout rate and a 4.65% walk rate over 155 2/3 innings with the Eagles

[Slade]

I think our off-season has a lot more to go.

 

Desperately need a good left handed bat, another starter and a lot more depth in the pen.

[John_Havok]

I think our off-season has a lot more to go.

 

Desperately need a good left handed bat, another starter and a lot more depth in the pen.

 

I wouldn't say ALOT more depth in the pen, basically just 1 more guy and ideally he'd be upper tier. Someone like Kenly Jansen would be about perfect to have a clear top 2 of Jansen/Romano. Garcia, Richards, Mayza, Cimber, Stripling (assuming long/swing) then the rest of Pearson, Saucedo(L), Snead(L), Borucki(L), Thornton, Hatch, Kay(L), Merryweather, Phelps, Castro can fight it out for the remaining spots or be rotation depth. Likely even some other pickups before spring training of even more guys on minor league deals with ST invites, just like every year.

[Laika]

I think our off-season has a lot more to go.

 

Desperately need a good left handed bat, another starter and a lot more depth in the pen.

 

The dream:

 

Freddie Freeman, Yusei Kikuchi or Zack Greinke, and Collin McHugh (all of the FA relievers kind of suck, wow)

 

More realistic:

 

Kyle Seager (one year), Drew Smyly, and Collin McHugh (all of the FA relievers kind of suck, wow)