Bigger Priority to Re-Sign: Semien or Ray?

[Laika]

Ray reminds me a bit of Zack Wheeler for some reason.

 

In my head Wheeler was up and down and injury prone with the Mets but came into his own his final year before free agency at 29 years old. The Phillies paid him hugely and bigly and took a bit of a gamble on the fact that 2019 = a sign of things to come and a demonstration of true evolution and it has paid off so far, he has been even better than Philadelphia probably expected.

 

$120 million for Robert Ray?

[EastCoaster]

He's 29...

 

Yeah and Chris Sale was shut down at 30 yrs old requiring Tommy John surgery just returning now after missing 2020 no guarantees. He'll be 30 soon next year 31 too risky for a long term deal.

[TheHurl]

Ray reminds me a bit of Zack Wheeler for some reason.

 

In my head Wheeler was up and down and injury prone with the Mets but came into his own his final year before free agency at 29 years old. The Phillies paid him hugely and bigly and took a bit of a gamble on the fact that 2019 = a sign of things to come and a demonstration of true evolution and it has paid off so far, he has been even better than Philadelphia probably expected.

 

$120 million for Robert Ray?

 

There is some Eovaldi in there too. Coming off a bad season into an above average one in the eve of his free agency. Eovaldi got 4 years $68M

[G-Snarls]

He turns 30 on the last day of the regular season. Which is 2 months younger than Price was and 3 years older than Sale was, when they signed their deals. Corbin got 6 years at 29. Ryu was 32 when he signed his 4 year deal. Strasburg was 31 when he signed for 7 years. I think Ray seeks and can get 5 years.

 

He might, yes

 

I would point out of course that Price and Sale had significantly longer records of sustained success before signing

 

Strasburg got that deal despite a terrible health history because of his top notch stuff. At least Ray has been healthy

[max silver]

I OK with resigning Ray but I wouldn't go overboard with money or long term wise. He's right at that age when things start to catch up with the body. The last thing I want to see is a Chris Sale or David Price scenario with mega dollars attached to the deal. Teams have gotten wiser now especially with pitchers with velocity and high inning pitched that's a disaster in the making and unfortunately it happens way to often.

 

Ray has several hundred less innings on his arm compared to both Price and Sale. A 5 year deal for Ray would be perfect.

[John_Havok]

So, logically the next step of the convo is ... what does it take to keep Ray?

 

5/125?

[wilko]

So, logically the next step of the convo is ... what does it take to keep Ray?

 

5/125?

 

4/95

[gruber92]

So, logically the next step of the convo is ... what does it take to keep Ray?

 

5/125?

 

I think that's the number. If Shatkins believes in the transformation of Ray in all aspects, they'll pay him.

[Deadpool]

Bobby Tightpants is my choice, with Biggio back at 2B and Groshans (or a FA) at 3B.

[Krylian]

Bobby Tightpants is my choice, with Biggio back at 2B and Groshans (or a FA) at 3B.

 

If you're gonna put Biggio at 2B I think you need a meaningful FA at 3B.

[Virgil_Hiltz]

IMHO the cost of signing either player needs to be calculated as the dollars it costs if not signed on their replacement players. Signing both at their market value may only increase the Jays payroll by Grichuk yearly salary.

I doubt the front office will want to do a competitive reset over Canada's largest network that amount of money.

[specialiste]

As much as I like Ray, he still plays only 1 time every 5 days. Semien can plays 162 games.

So it's a no brainer for me.

[wilko]

As much as I like Ray, he still plays only 1 time every 5 days. Semien can plays 162 games.

So it's a no brainer for me.

 

Ray?

[Jimcanuck]

As much as I like Ray, he still plays only 1 time every 5 days. Semien can plays 162 games.

So it's a no brainer for me.

 

So the Jays should only sign position players?

[Omar]

Coming back to this thread to reinforce my original view that Semien will be a more impactful signing. Semien's influence on Bo just one more reason.

 

 

[AdamGreenwood]

Use the money we save on Semien, Ray and Yates to get Bauer, Ozuna and Osuna.

We can get them cheap.

[Stangstag]

Use the money we save on Semien, Ray and Yates to get Bauer, Ozuna and Osuna.

We can get them cheap.

 

Lol

[Ryu In My House]

Ugh, this thread. I can't stand the thought of the 2022 Jays without either player to be honest.

[Krylian]

Ugh, this thread. I can't stand the thought of the 2022 Jays without either player to be honest.

 

Then you should start preparing yourself mentally. I think the odds of them BOTH returning is low.

[glory]

Coming back to this thread to reinforce my original view that Semien will be a more impactful signing. Semien's influence on Bo just one more reason.

 

 

Semien has also been a top 5 WAR player in the entire league for the last two 162 game seasons. His 2020 season after the first 2 weeks or so resembled this type of player as well, except the season was too short for the overall numbers to look the part. There will be decline in his 30's, but if you wanted a safer bet to be worth the deal he's going to get, then Semien > Ray, IMO. The last start against the Yankees by Ray is kind of warning sign. A little dip in velocity or his command suddenly getting lost again, and he could be an albatross very quickly. Even with an offensive decline, Semien should still have the higher floor, and he clearly has the higher ceiling.

 

I don't get Kawhi vibes with Semien either. Maybe he does prefer the West Coast, or a chance to play SS again, but I feel like he legitimately likes the team and would re-sign if the offer was the highest. Whether the Jays should give him a Springer contract is the question. You can't have too many of those because it might restrict available resources for extensions to young players. If they give Semien something like 5/125, then I'd probably avoid another big FA deal for a while, and try to get by with shorter term deals elsewhere.

[BigCecil]

Semien has also been a top 5 WAR player in the entire league for the last two 162 game seasons. His 2020 season after the first 2 weeks or so resembled this type of player as well, except the season was too short for the overall numbers to look the part. There will be decline in his 30's, but if you wanted a safer bet to be worth the deal he's going to get, then Semien > Ray, IMO. The last start against the Yankees by Ray is kind of warning sign. A little dip in velocity or his command suddenly getting lost again, and he could be an albatross very quickly. Even with an offensive decline, Semien should still have the higher floor, and he clearly has the higher ceiling.

 

I have similar concerns about Ray. 2 pitches max effort. BBs history. TB couldn't get to his high FB and NYY crushed it in his last starts. Have 0 interest in a 5 year deal for him which some dumbass GM will give him.

[Eat My Shatkins]

Ray for me, easily.

 

Jays have a strong nucleus of young core position players under control and more on the way in likely the next 1-2 seasons with Moreno, Groshans and Martinez.

 

If you lose Semien it'll be a blow, but the offense will still continue to produce for years to come.

 

As for starting pitching...

 

1. Ryu, old and just 2 years left

2. Berrios, hopefully extended but just 1 year left as of now

3. Stripling, 1 year left of control and more of a swing man and spot starter

4. Pearson, struggling with injuries and finding consistency

 

 

So, the only proven starter they have under control for a while is Manoah and they don't have anything in the pipeline that you can count on being a factor.

 

Really hoping they can get Ray and Matz extended this off season, providing they believe those guys will have continued success under Walker.

Edited October 5, 2021 by Eat My Shatkins

[Brownie19]

Semien > Ray for me.

 

Without Martin in our system, I think we're now hoping Groshans or Orelvis will ultimately take over 3rd base long term. If Biggio may end up in the Zobrist role so I think there's room for Semien to lock in as our 2nd basemen for the next 5 years. I think Ray comes with a lot more risk and will be easier to replace (essentially because I'm not sold he's going to repeat his success).

 

That said - Ray may give us a bit of a discount as we helped turn his career around. It will be fascinating to see this play out.

[Krylian]

Who is easier to replace with another FA signing...

 

Semien or Ray?

[Jimcanuck]

Who is easier to replace with another FA signing...

 

Semien or Ray?

 

Semien easy. And it doesn't even need to be FA. There are internal options if the Jays decide to spend on nothing but pitching.

[JFD]

Ray obviously.. duh!

 

Semien's righty power bat is redundant on this team. Not really needed if Springer can stay healthy

[Brownie19]

Who is easier to replace with another FA signing...

 

Semien or Ray?

 

Full seasons from Manoah + Berrios (even when assuming no improvement) will more than replace the 3.9 fWAR Ray provided. What we're trying to do is replace the 32-34 starts made before those 2 arrived. IMO, it's more likely we can replace those starts in house (Pearson/Hatch/Stripling, etc.) or with a FA than it is that Biggio can replace Semien. Especially when you consider Stripling himself made 19 of those 32-34 starts and is still on the team. That said, we also need to replace Matz's starts (perhaps by re-signing him) and we really need to add starting pitching depth, which looks like a weak point right now.

 

I could see us going with Matz and Jon Gray instead of Ray. Quantity over quality. We need some depth and while neither Manoah or Berrios are likely to be true 'aces', they are both top of the rotation guys. Some setup where Stripling and Pearson can be SP'ing depth would be ideal.

Edited October 5, 2021 by Brownie19

[Scion]

Semien for me quite easily. He is a better player, has a better track record the past three seasons and is a safer bet because of pitcher attrition rates vs position players.

[max silver]

Full seasons from Manoah + Berrios (even when assuming no improvement) will more than replace the 3.9 fWAR Ray provided. What we're trying to do is replace the 32-34 starts made before those 2 arrived. IMO, it's more likely we can replace those starts in house (Pearson/Hatch/Stripling, etc.) or with a FA than it is that Biggio can replace Semien. Especially when you consider Stripling himself made 19 of those 32-34 starts and is still on the team. That said, we also need to replace Matz's starts (perhaps by re-signing him) and we really need to add starting pitching depth, which looks like a weak point right now.

 

I could see us going with Matz and Jon Gray instead of Ray. Quantity over quality. We need some depth and while neither Manoah or Berrios are likely to be true 'aces', they are both top of the rotation guys. Some setup where Stripling and Pearson can be SP'ing depth would be ideal.

 

Ray is seriously underrated if you look at Fangraphs WAR only. He is penalized very heavily for home runs allowed even though they were frequently solo shots due to the lack of baserunners he allowed. Baseball Reference paints a very different picture with 6.7 WAR placing him third in baseball.

[Brownie19]

Ray is seriously underrated if you look at Fangraphs WAR only. He is penalized very heavily for home runs allowed even though they were frequently solo shots due to the lack of baserunners he allowed. Baseball Reference paints a very different picture with 6.7 WAR placing him third in baseball.

 

fWAR also says Wade Miley and Ranger Suarez were more valuable than Gerrit Cole, Corbin Burnes and Lance Lynn. There are weird outliners in bWAR and fWAR.

 

I think when I did the math, another 32 starts made by Berrios (20) and Manoah (12) provided another 4.5 fWAR. If I use the bWAR, they would provide another 4 WAR. I'm not sure I'm willing to expect much more than 4 bWAR from Ray next year....maybe you could bank on 5 bWAR, which means it's still 'close' to replacing Ray's value.