Bigger Priority to Re-Sign: Semien or Ray?

[John_Havok]

Lots to consider here as losing either of them would be a blow to the team.

 

They’re both very similar situations…both are here on 1 year deals trying to build their value. Mission accomplished and then some. Sure Ray was getting 8 million versus 18 million for Semien, but the parallels are obvious.

 

Which guy walking would leave the bigger hole? Can they afford both? Should they push for both or let one walk and try to replace that guy with other another option?

 

And let’s settle one part of it now, obviously you want both to return but that can’t be the goal at all costs. There is a number for each of them that just wouldn’t make sense at all despite their amazing performances this season.

 

Will the upcoming inevitable PA/MLB negotiations slow down any negotiations not knowing if there’s going to be a solid salary floor?

[Jonn]

Bobby Ray.

 

Would absolutely love to have Semien back though. I actually think they have a really good chance to retain both. They are going to have a very difficult time finding a better situation to win. And Blue Jays can also pay them.

[Abomination]

Signing guys to long term deals when they're coming off career years scares the crap out of me. On the flip side, they don't have to be THIS good to still provide good value.

[Jimcanuck]

Robbie (not Bobby) Ray. Loaded MIF free agent market.

 

Not for more than 4/95 or 5/110 though

[gruber92]

Sign them both if possible. Deal with Vladdy and Bo extension in a couple of years when Ryu and Grichuk come off the books. Roark's 12M is coming off this year.

[Spanky99]

[saskjayfan]

That's like choosing between my first born and second born...I mean, I could probably choose, but just feels a little bit wrong.

[Jimcanuck]

Sign them both if possible. Deal with Vladdy and Bo extension in a couple of years when Ryu and Grichuk come off the books. Roark's 12M is coming off this year.

 

The question is who woulld be the priority, Gruber.

[dineke]

anyone scared robbie's going to pull a sanchez and go back to walking everyone next year?

[Spanky99]

Do your shopping at home.

[Spanky99]

anyone scared robbie's going to pull a sanchez and go back to walking everyone next year?

 

No.

[Jonn]

anyone scared robbie's going to pull a sanchez and go back to walking everyone next year?

 

Honestly no. He looks like a completely different pitcher. He looks like he actually really figured it out.

[Jimcanuck]

anyone scared robbie's going to pull a sanchez and go back to walking everyone next year?

 

Nah, has has a much longer good track record. Some regression yes, but he should still be a top 25 SP for a few years yet.

[glory]

anyone scared robbie's going to pull a sanchez and go back to walking everyone next year?

 

Sanchez only had one good season in his entire pro career, and it was 2016. Wasn't good before or since (at least as a SP). From memory, his minor league numbers were pretty s*** for a top prospect. This is the first season in Ray's career that he's looked like an ace, but his pre 2020 numbers were good. If the expectation is that he'll be somewhere between his pre 2020 numbers and his 2021 numbers over the next few years, then that's pretty damn good, but if you're expecting him to repeat this season again, then it's probably optimistic.

 

Semien has been a MVP caliber player for the last two full seasons. He's probably the safer bet.

[dineke]

Sanchez only had one good season in his entire pro career, and it was 2016. Wasn't good before or since (at least as a SP). From memory, his minor league numbers were pretty s*** for a top prospect. This is the first season in Ray's career that he's looked like an ace, but his pre 2020 numbers were good. If the expectation is that he'll be somewhere between his pre 2020 numbers and his 2021 numbers over the next few years, then that's pretty damn good, but if you're expecting him to repeat this season again, then it's probably optimistic.

 

Semien has been a MVP caliber player for the last two full seasons. He's probably the safer bet.

 

He's had good years but I don't think he's ever had a walk rate under 3.5/9 in his career. Anyone know if he made a mechanical change this year?

[Krylian]

Both are huge, but losing Ray would be a harder hole to fill.

[BCZ]

I'm really f***ing going to miss Semien.

[jaysguy44]

It's going to suck losing Semien, but if you can only keep 1 of them it has to be Ray.

[Spanky99]

He's had good years but I don't think he's ever had a walk rate under 3.5/9 in his career. Anyone know if he made a mechanical change this year?

 

Yes.

[Jimcanuck]

He's had good years but I don't think he's ever had a walk rate under 3.5/9 in his career. Anyone know if he made a mechanical change this year?

 

He did yes. IIRC he shortened his arm action.

[InsideThePark]

Ray.

 

Feels like they're going to sign 1 starter and 1 infielder regardless, but the rotation feels like the bigger need, and I'm liking a lot of the plethora of infield options. Ray was also quick to resign here because of Walker in the offseason while Semien seemed more like a find a spot to show what I can do and get paid strategy. While I'm sure Ray will be after the most money as well, feels like he might be more likely to prioritize Toronto too if the money is close.

[Jimcanuck]

Have to consider that Ryu has just 2 years left. He'll be 36 and whether he makes it to the end of the deal without the arm falling or his performance falling off a cliff is a question.

 

Ray is simply the more critical need.

[Laika]

I know it's cheating but I don't think you need to prefer one to the other, unless the budget makes you pick one which I don't think would necessarily be true.

 

You predetermine how much you are willing to pay both. You start with reasonable aggressive offers to both to see if you can tempt them to ignore free agency (unlikely) then you stay engaged and open minded while only moving your maximum offer up if the overall market has moved up. And you court replacements simultaneously.

 

Now if I HAD to pick only one it would be Ray. I think Semien is a better guy to have long term objectively because of injury risk but Ray is more crucial to Toronto if you look at the next couple or years. I think the team could get by without Semien but I think if they don't have Robbie Ray or someone as good as him the rotation looks like s***.

[Ehjays]

I saw an interview with Semein in the last week or so and he said its not just about money, geography counts as well. With his wife and kids not with him as they are back in the Bay area where he grew up and played many years with Oakland, I dont see him back. I hope im wrong. If San Fran stepped up I think he would do that in a heart beat...I will try to find a link.

[Jays24]

I saw an interview with Semein in the last week or so and he said its not just about money, geography counts as well. With his wife and kids not with him as they are back in the Bay area where he grew up and played many years with Oakland, I dont see him back. I hope im wrong. If San Fran stepped up I think he would do that in a heart beat...I will try to find a link.

 

This is exactly what I was going to say since I saw that interview too. Semien seems like a family first type of guy and I really think he goes to any of the teams in the Bay area. At least one of them should be able to pay up.

 

Now if the offer just isn't there from one of them then he's the safer pick even if Ray is the better fit

[Daniel Labude]

Both and imo no reason why we can't resign both for 4 or so years

[Spanky99]

I saw an interview with Semein in the last week or so and he said its not just about money, geography counts as well. With his wife and kids not with him as they are back in the Bay area where he grew up and played many years with Oakland, I dont see him back. I hope im wrong. If San Fran stepped up I think he would do that in a heart beat...I will try to find a link.

 

He's gone, mentioned the border and family, etc

[Brownie19]

He did yes. IIRC he shortened his arm action.

 

Not exactly. He shortened his arm action last year in Arizona and it failed miserably. He 'went back' to his normal arm action once joining the Jays.

[Spanky99]

Not exactly. He shortened his arm action last year in Arizona and it failed miserably. He 'went back' to his normal arm action once joining the Jays.

 

And dealt... killing teams respectively!

[Omar]

If I had my druthers I would take Semien for the simple reason I am wary of pitchers on 4+ year deals which is what Ray is going to get. Hope his body holds up.

Reality is the vibe I get from Semien is that he won't be beholden to the Jays for this career season. I think he's gonna go.

If Ray signs here we get a guy who wants to be here. Win/Win for both sides.

 

Scary thought.....they both leave.