Trade Deadline Rumors and Discussion Thread 2021

[TwistedLogic]

Holy s*** man that's a truly awful trade proposal. Martin is an elite prospect, so the idea of moving him out for a rental starter and a decent left fielder is unnecessarily throwing away value.

 

Again, I didn't realize Scherzer was expiring. I thought he still had 1-2 more years left on his deal.

[Ryu In My House]

Kyle Seager would be a good get. Although his 2023 option may kick in. I am not sure I'd want him past 2021. But he would take care of 3B and make this lineup outstanding. Biggio could be the super sub. Fry from Baltimore may be an option. I think he is a FA after 2021. I think he would be a decent 7th or 8th inning guy. A lefty Dolis.

[Stangstag]

My point is, up until this recent class started turning out a surprising amount of players, no elite Blue Jays prospect actually turned out to be elite. Syndergaard was the only one and he came up with the Mets. Besides Syndergaard, every bonafide top guy they've had over the years, whether it was in the Snider, Wallace and Drabek era, or the d'Arnaud, Marisnick and Sanchez era, or the Pompey, Alford and Norris era, literally 0 of the elite Blue Jays prospects over that time have become even a threat to make an All-Star game. And we thought all of these guys would be perennial All-Stars at different times.

 

Sanchez was an all-star in 2016 HELLO

[max silver]

I'm not saying people didn't want those guys traded. It's not like people were upset Gose or Osuna were traded when they were either. I'm talking about the hype those prospects each had at different times. Lawrie after his first 43 games in 2011 was probably the most untouchable prospect I've ever seen in Toronto until Vladdy emerged. I've never seen a young baseball player more hyped in this city before that. I remember wondering if he'd be the next Blue Jays hall of famer.

 

I think watching Lawrie fall off was the most gutted I've ever been over a prospect not meeting expectations. It's also the first time I really experienced that in general since I only became a hardcore fan leading into the 2011 season, due largely in part to the hype around Jose Bautista's 2010 season.

 

My point is, up until this recent class started turning out a surprising amount of players, no elite Blue Jays prospect actually turned out to be elite. Syndergaard was the only one and he came up with the Mets. Besides Syndergaard, every bonafide top guy they've had over the years, whether it was in the Snider, Wallace and Drabek era, or the d'Arnaud, Marisnick and Sanchez era, or the Pompey, Alford and Norris era, literally 0 of the elite Blue Jays prospects over that time have become even a threat to make an All-Star game. And we thought all of these guys would be perennial All-Stars at different times.

 

Even among the guys they traded away that hurt at the time, like Marisnick, Hoffman and Norris, none of them seriously came back to bite them. The only really good players the Jays have lost, like Boyd, Gomes, Musgrove and DeSclafani, were afterthoughts in their system at the time of those trades. Nobody was really crying about losing any of those guys.

 

Prior to Noah Syndergaard, the last time a #1 prospect in the Jays system turned out was Alex Rios in 2004.

 

Every single one of these player development failures occurred under different front office regimes, under largely antiquated training methods and with an underequipped dilapidated training complex. This organization under Mark Shapiro has been striving to modernize the entire minor league system and overhauling every single aspect in order to maximize the potential of every single player in the system. Players are being highly encouraged to spend their winters in Dunedin in order to utilize the new developmental complex. Whether it's making strides in practice routines to practice at full game speed, or utilizing nutritionists and chefs to maximize nutrition, or utilizing the pitching and hitting labs in the developmental complex, we are starting to see this new minor league system really starting to bear fruit. This season alone we have seen breakouts from players like Gabriel Moreno, Kevin Smith, Samad Taylor, etc., and I think we will continue to see more and more success stories like this over time. Obviously there won't be spots for all of these players on the Jays, but this system is well primed to produce a talent pipeline going forward to both feed the Jays with quality inexpensive talent, and to function as trade currency for filling holes on the major league roster as required.

 

In the last few seasons alone we have seen prospect graduations/success stories in players like Bo Bichette, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Cavan Biggio, Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Alec Manoah, Alejandro Kirk etc., and there are more players in the upper and lower levels of the minor leagues making strides towards becoming effective major league contributors. I think the days of lamenting about all of the Blue Jays players ultimately becoming busts is a thing of the past.

[saskjayfan]

Again, I didn't realize Scherzer was expiring. I thought he still had 1-2 more years left on his deal.

 

I get the sentiment. Prospects bust. Snider was a top 10 prospect in baseball. He was as sure of a thing as it gets and he didn't work out. Lately though..Bo, Vlad, Cavan, Kirk....lots of our young guys coming up have panned out. Perhaps the most recent times is tipping the bias in the other direction and we feel all our guys will work out. If you get someone elite who can really help out, you're going to have to give up some prospect capital.

[saskjayfan]

Shohei Ohtani would be a fun guy to trade for. I know. It's never going to happen. He only has 2 years of control left after this year. I look at the Angels. They will have some payroll flexibility next year, but probably have 50 to 60 mil to spend and they have to build an entire rotation outside of Ohtani and a bullpen. Iglesias is a free agent. Ohtani is locked in at 5.5 mil next year(he should probably fire his agent), but his arb 3 year is probably 20+ mil. In 24 when he's a free agent they have 81 mil committed to 3 players. Rendon at 34 has 3 years left on his deal with a 35 mil cap hit. Extending Ohtani would cost 35 to 40 mil. Detmers is coming. Maybe as soon as next year at some point, but what else do they have. They have the payroll to add some pitchers, but they have a 2 year window.

 

The Angels could be wasting 2 generational talents. It's remarkable that they had the good fortune of having a guy like Ohtani choose them and they still can't build a winner with Trout at the helm. Just for fun, what would you trade to get Shohei Ohtani. I know. They aren't going to trade him, but it's fun to think about.

[Olerud363]

Sure, if the return is good enough. If he's headlining a package for Schwarber and Scherzer, for example, yes I'd pull that trigger.

 

I used to get a lot more married to the Jays top prospects. Then Anthony Gose turned out to be a replacement level player and Devon Travis could never stay on the field and Travis d'Arnaud just had a meh career and Brett Lawrie played himself out of the league and Franklin Barreto became nothing for the A's and Dalton Pompey essentially retired at 25 years old and Anthony Alford turned into a pumpkin and Jeff Hoffman went on to post a 6.13 ERA and Aaron Sanchez literally died to blisters and Roberto Osuna beat up his girlfriend (allegedly) and now Nate Pearson is always incapacitated.

 

How many of those guys were considered untouchables by Jays fans at various points? Many of the guys that were traded brought back quality talent. Many of the others could have brought back high-value assets and were instead kept and became zeros for the Blue Jays.

 

I love Martin. He's my second favorite guy in the Jays system and was my #1 until Moreno broke out. I wouldn't have an easy time seeing him get moved. But I also know that the Blue Jays have plenty of home grown talent on the major league roster and need to make trades to supplement that and you're not going to get an ace pitcher for Samad Taylor.

 

Martin is a different cat though. His pedigree is way better than any of those guys. Basically a top 3 talent in his draft class who has struggled out of the gate and still has a .400 on base percentage.

 

Martin is basically doing what Bichette did in the high minors, .275ish average, without mind blowing power, with a couple of differences

 

Bichette - a bit younger, demolished low minors,

Martin - no low minors data to speak of, but good college career, and was a top 3 talent in his draft class, has shown better walk rate than Bichette

 

I suspect most people would of considered Bichette untachable so why not Martin?

[The Cats Ass]

Twins are the target team.

 

Rogers, Berrios, Maeda, maybe Pineda or Stashak.

 

Cruz would make the lineup hilarious. It would be the best 1 to 6 in baseball history.

 

Wonder what a package of Berrios, Rogers, and Cruz would cost. Berrios and Rogers both have another year of control.

 

I'd include Groshans.

[Laika]

Martin is a different cat though. His pedigree is way better than any of those guys. Basically a top 3 talent in his draft class who has struggled out of the gate and still has a .400 on base percentage.

 

Martin is basically doing what Bichette did in the high minors, .275ish average, without mind blowing power, with a couple of differences

 

Bichette - a bit younger, demolished low minors,

Martin - no low minors data to speak of, but good college career, and was a top 3 talent in his draft class, has shown better walk rate than Bichette

 

I suspect most people would of considered Bichette untachable so why not Martin?

 

I'm not sure Bo Bichette was quite in the untouchable category. Close to it, sure, but maybe more of the "it's hard to imagine a trade where we would give him up" category.

 

I also can't realistically imagine them dealing Austin Martin, but I can kind of imagine it. What if say the Marlins offered like, a healthy Sixto Sanchez + Anthony Bender? Or something like that. Pick your favourite elite young pitcher and add one of his teams' best current MLB relief pitchers on top.

[Laika]

Wonder what a package of Berrios, Rogers, and Cruz would cost. Berrios and Rogers both have another year of control.

 

I'd include Groshans.

 

[G-Snarls]

I want Scherzer badly

 

So does every other contenter save perhaps the Dodgers and Padres

 

Washington will hold out for the best prospect package they are offered

 

Also I presume he has either a no trade clause or at least 10 and 5 rights and can block a trade? That always complicates things too

[Laika]

I want Scherzer badly

 

So does every other contenter save perhaps the Dodgers and Padres

 

Washington will hold out for the best prospect package they are offered

 

Also I presume he has either a no trade clause or at least 10 and 5 rights and can block a trade? That always complicates things too

 

Doesn't look like the Nats will sell. They are 3.5 games back and chasing the f***ing Mets. I wouldn't sell.

[saskjayfan]

Wonder what a package of Berrios, Rogers, and Cruz would cost. Berrios and Rogers both have another year of control.

 

I'd include Groshans.

 

That's going to cost a lot more than Groshans. You'd have to send Grichuk or Gurriel back. Preferably Grichuk. Cruz is an elite hitter. Berrios is number 2 with a year of control and Taylor Rogers is a very good high leverage reliever. I like the idea of targeting Berrios or Rogers on solo deals or in a package and if we can get Cruz too, why not. It's not going to be cheap.

[Laika]

Sellers:

 

Orioles

Tigers

Twins

Royals

Mariners

Rangers

Marlins

Pirates

Diamondbacks

Rockies

 

Might be sellers:

 

Angels

Braves

Phillies

Nationals

Reds

Cardinals

[Laika]

That's going to cost a lot more than Groshans. You'd have to send Grichuk or Gurriel back. Preferably Grichuk. Cruz is an elite hitter. Berrios is number 2 with a year of control and Taylor Rogers is a very good high leverage reliever. I like the idea of targeting Berrios or Rogers on solo deals or in a package and if we can get Cruz too, why not. It's not going to be cheap.

 

Why is there this persistent fantasy where the Blue Jays can somehow get rid of Randal Grichuk?

 

He could be swapped for a bad contract but that's about it. Nobody wants him.

 

Gurriel is rapidly setting his trade value on fire as well. Sadly.

[G-Snarls]

Doesn't look like the Nats will sell. They are 3.5 games back and chasing the f***ing Mets. I wouldn't sell.

 

 

Oh wow. I hadn't realized they had just won 5 in a row while Phillies and Braves keep losing. Changes the whole complexion of that whack as Hell division.

[BigCecil]

Why is there this persistent fantasy where the Blue Jays can somehow get rid of Randal Grichuk?

 

He could be swapped for a bad contract but that's about it. Nobody wants him.

 

Gurriel is rapidly setting his trade value on fire as well. Sadly.

 

This. Randal 0.4 WAR and 100 wRC+ with that contract. Sucker born every minute (still cant believe we at one point shed the Wells and Rios deals) but there is little trade value there.

[BigCecil]

I want Scherzer badly

 

So does every other contenter save perhaps the Dodgers and Padres

 

Washington will hold out for the best prospect package they are offered

 

Also I presume he has either a no trade clause or at least 10 and 5 rights and can block a trade? That always complicates things too

 

Would be amazing to see him starting for us. Probably an irrelevant comparable but what did we rent Price for 2015? Boyd and Norris? How does the Board view that deal in retrospect? Boyd has been worth 10 WAR since he left. I think it was good for both teams. Hard to value how 2015 run helped propel the Jays back into the main stream of Canadian sports pecking order.

[Spanky99]

What did we rent Price for 2015? Boyd and Norris? How does the Board view that deal in retrospect? Boyd has been worth 10 WAR since he left. I think it was good for both teams. Hard to value how 2015 run helped propel the Jays back into the main stream of Canadian sports pecking order.

 

Trade worked out for both sides, solid deal all around, funny thing Boyd was the secondary piece. Same goes with Musgrove and Desclafani in their deals.

[saskjayfan]

Why is there this persistent fantasy where the Blue Jays can somehow get rid of Randal Grichuk?

 

He could be swapped for a bad contract but that's about it. Nobody wants him.

 

Gurriel is rapidly setting his trade value on fire as well. Sadly.

 

Grichuk's contract was looking pretty good a few weeks ago! Regardless, he's a slightly above league average hitter for his career and can play all outfield positions. You wouldn't have to eat that much money to get rid of him. 5 or 6 mil for a veteran like Grichuk isn't a bad deal for teams. The guys work ethic is off the charts. Brining that veteran presence with his work ethic isn't as hard a sell as you're making it out to be.

[Spanky99]

Grichuk's contract was looking pretty good a few weeks ago! Regardless, he's a slightly above league average hitter for his career and can play all outfield positions. You wouldn't have to eat that much money to get rid of him. 5 or 6 mil for a veteran like Grichuk isn't a bad deal for teams. The guys work ethic is off the charts. Brining that veteran presence with his work ethic isn't as hard a sell as you're making it out to be.

 

He's a cromulent 4th OF'er in our rotation, why are we getting rid of him again?

[Spanky99]

 

Where'd you get that evaluation tool, brosoff?

[TwistedLogic]

Every single one of these player development failures occurred under different front office regimes, under largely antiquated training methods and with an underequipped dilapidated training complex. This organization under Mark Shapiro has been striving to modernize the entire minor league system and overhauling every single aspect in order to maximize the potential of every single player in the system. Players are being highly encouraged to spend their winters in Dunedin in order to utilize the new developmental complex. Whether it's making strides in practice routines to practice at full game speed, or utilizing nutritionists and chefs to maximize nutrition, or utilizing the pitching and hitting labs in the developmental complex, we are starting to see this new minor league system really starting to bear fruit. This season alone we have seen breakouts from players like Gabriel Moreno, Kevin Smith, Samad Taylor, etc., and I think we will continue to see more and more success stories like this over time. Obviously there won't be spots for all of these players on the Jays, but this system is well primed to produce a talent pipeline going forward to both feed the Jays with quality inexpensive talent, and to function as trade currency for filling holes on the major league roster as required.

 

In the last few seasons alone we have seen prospect graduations/success stories in players like Bo Bichette, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Cavan Biggio, Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Alec Manoah, Alejandro Kirk etc., and there are more players in the upper and lower levels of the minor leagues making strides towards becoming effective major league contributors. I think the days of lamenting about all of the Blue Jays players ultimately becoming busts is a thing of the past.

 

These are all good points. I was gonna mention something along those lines in my post but it was already too long. The fact that all those failures happened under a different front office and the team now has better executives at the top, a new scouting director and different player development practices, it could mean these recent successes with prospects are meaningful examples of future successes to come. That being said, it's still too early to definitively say anything about most of these players. Vladdy would have always been an elite prospect no matter which organization he was in. But is Bo Bichette truly that 130 wRC+ type player he's been to this point? I hope so but we only have one season's worth of plate appearances on him so far. The other guys have even more question marks.

 

We'll need a few more years of data to really get an understanding on how good this front office truly is at identifying and developing talent. The early results are incredibly promising and if people are projecting those developmental successes forward on players like Martin and Groshans, that's a totally understandable approach. It's easy to get attached to prospects and it becomes a lot harder to part with them when your front office starts showing the ability to actually turn those players into something.

[Scion]

I'm not saying people didn't want those guys traded. It's not like people were upset Gose or Osuna were traded when they were either. I'm talking about the hype those prospects each had at different times. Lawrie after his first 43 games in 2011 was probably the most untouchable prospect I've ever seen in Toronto until Vladdy emerged. I've never seen a young baseball player more hyped in this city before that. I remember wondering if he'd be the next Blue Jays hall of famer.

 

I think watching Lawrie fall off was the most gutted I've ever been over a prospect not meeting expectations. It's also the first time I really experienced that in general since I only became a hardcore fan leading into the 2011 season, due largely in part to the hype around Jose Bautista's 2010 season.

 

My point is, up until this recent class started turning out a surprising amount of players, no elite Blue Jays prospect actually turned out to be elite. Syndergaard was the only one and he came up with the Mets. Besides Syndergaard, every bonafide top guy they've had over the years, whether it was in the Snider, Wallace and Drabek era, or the d'Arnaud, Marisnick and Sanchez era, or the Pompey, Alford and Norris era, literally 0 of the elite Blue Jays prospects over that time have become even a threat to make an All-Star game. And we thought all of these guys would be perennial All-Stars at different times.

 

Even among the guys they traded away that hurt at the time, like Marisnick, Hoffman and Norris, none of them seriously came back to bite them. The only really good players the Jays have lost, like Boyd, Gomes, Musgrove and DeSclafani, were afterthoughts in their system at the time of those trades. Nobody was really crying about losing any of those guys.

 

Prior to Noah Syndergaard, the last time a #1 prospect in the Jays system turned out was Alex Rios in 2004.

 

Prior regimes churned out some good prospect talent. Marcum, Hill, Halladay, Carpenter, Wells, Rios, Young and Romero all had good to great careers in the 2000's and Litsch, Lind, Chacin and McGowan had a good season or two each as well. Even the AA regime produced: Stroman, Guerrero, Musgrove, DeSclafani and Syndergaard.

[saskjayfan]

He's a cromulent 4th OF'er in our rotation, why are we getting rid of him again?

 

I'm not getting rid of him necessarily. In the scenario where Cruz is traded to us I'm moving Grichuk. Dollars still matter to some degree. We're taking on salary in that trade. Where's the at bats if we bring in Nelson Cruz. I get that there's injury risk, so maybe you keep him. I'm somewhat ambivalent either way. I don't think Grichuk would take to sitting on the bench very well. That factors in as well. We're not likely trading for Berrios, Taylor and Cruz in a package deal so it's a moot point.

[Spanky99]

I'm not getting rid of him necessarily. In the scenario where Cruz is traded to us I'm moving Grichuk. Dollars still matter to some degree. We're taking on salary in that trade. Where's the at bats if we bring in Nelson Cruz. I get that there's injury risk, so maybe you keep him. I'm somewhat ambivalent either way. I don't think Grichuk would take to sitting on the bench very well. That factors in as well. We're not likely trading for Berrios, Taylor and Cruz in a package deal so it's a moot point.

 

Agreed, this is video game s***. Also, if say Cruz were on this team, Randal would have to deal with it, period. He'd get rest day starts and late and close defensive work. Good teams have good 4th OFers. He knows that, be better Randal, no one cares.

[The Cats Ass]

 

I'd personally pull the trigger on that. Would also give us over a year to extend Berrios. And if he walks we get a pick.

 

I think we see some prospects getting moved this trade deadline. There's a lot of guys coming up through, and breakout/bouncebacks happening.

[glory]

Grichuk's contract was looking pretty good a few weeks ago! Regardless, he's a slightly above league average hitter for his career and can play all outfield positions. You wouldn't have to eat that much money to get rid of him. 5 or 6 mil for a veteran like Grichuk isn't a bad deal for teams. The guys work ethic is off the charts. Brining that veteran presence with his work ethic isn't as hard a sell as you're making it out to be.

 

Players as good as or better than Grichuk sign cheap one year deals in the current market. He’s just not a long term asset and unfortunately he still has another two years to go after this one. A bad contract swap is possible but the Jays would have to eat up a lot of his contract if it’s a straight dump. In today’s environment, $10m a year for a 1 WAR outfielder is just not good value by any team’s metrics, and even if the Jays ate half of the deal, you could get a Pillar type for less than that every off season.

[TheHurl]

Where'd you get that evaluation tool, brosoff?

 

He created it. It was shared to everyone in the DDL by email a couple of Fridays ago. You were on the message, didn't you get it?

[The Cats Ass]

He created it. It was shared to everyone in the DDL by email a couple of Fridays ago. You were on the message, didn't you get it?

 

I've been using it ever since. I like that it has a "fantasy" toggle so it can be used for both that and real life.