Off Day Discussion #3: Who on the current team should the Blue Jays extend?

[Brownie19]

I find it interesting that most seem to favor Ray over Matz on this board.

 

I believe I said that if Ray could ever get his BB/9 below 2.5 that he's be a CY Young candidate.....well he's done that and while the current results have been good, there are underlying issues (BABIP allowed is low, LOB% very high - although the HR/FB should also come down). He only has 0.1 WAR so far, whereas Matz is at 0.8.

 

I mean we have to be super happy with both so far this year and I could see us wanting to keep both to be honest.

[dineke]

I find it interesting that most seem to favor Ray over Matz on this board.

 

I believe I said that if Ray could ever get his BB/9 below 2.5 that he's be a CY Young candidate.....well he's done that and while the current results have been good, there are underlying issues (BABIP allowed is low, LOB% very high - although the HR/FB should also come down). He only has 0.1 WAR so far, whereas Matz is at 0.8.

 

I mean we have to be super happy with both so far this year and I could see us wanting to keep both to be honest.

 

Ray is rated very well by SIERA and xFIP which I think I read somewhere(probably on this forum) that it's more predictive than FIP which is what fWAR is based on?

[Terminator]

Bo, Vlad, Ray, Matz and Semien would all be worthy of consideration. I might consider Chatwood as well but my guess is he'll want to test the market after recently reinventing himself.

[Terminator]

After thinking about this some more, Bo and Vlad are the most obvious but would take a ton of years and dollars.

 

Semien could be a smart guy to extend. Groshans and Martin aren't too far away but Biggio is looking more like a good utility bench player to me. Infield depth has haunted this team forever. I can't even think of the last time we had good depth there.

 

Given his soft market last year, a 4 for 70-75 or something like that for Semien could get it done to lock him up through his age 31 to 34 seasons. He'd project to start out as a 4+ WAR player at age 31 but would eventually settle in as a 2-3 WAR guy by the contract's end.

 

If he continues to play like a Top 10 MVP guy like in 2019 and 2021 in his early 30's and in that case he'd provide plenty of surplus.

[Captain Adama]

Marcus Semien, make it f***in' happen Ross.

[Terminator]

As I send that last one he hits another jack. He could have a 30/20 season so he might want to test the market at this point.

[RobinThicc]

Joe Panik

[Maahfaace]

Semien hasn't even seen the city of Toronto yet, and probably won't this year given our governments incompetence. I'd wager it will take a significant overpay to entice him to stay, especially if he continues to play well. The market for him will be broader than the top SS FAs, as most teams won't even entertain the type of of money/length of contract said FAs will garner.

[Jgarza868899]

Bo and Vlad. Nobody else

[gruber92]

Vladdy and Bo are obvious choices, but can wait a bit.

 

If Semien is still performing well by the All Star break, I would consider tossing a 3/60 at him and see what happens.

[Jimcanuck]

I would sign Semien to 3/60 right now. He would decline though.

[Terminator]

Extend Panik

[glory]

Other than the obvious (Vlad/Bo), I'd only consider Semien. I'm still not sold on Ray/Matz as long term pieces. Semien at this rate is going to end up being a top 10 player in WAR this season, just like he was in the last 162 game season, and he still seems under the radar enough to not be paid like a true star (his age will make him cheaper as well). He will likely still get a big contract, so obviously cost/term will factor in to how much bringing him back makes sense for the Jays, but out of the extension candidates not named Bo/Vlad, he's the only one I think the Jays should consider. Wait it out with Teoscar.

[Krylian]

I would sign Semien to 3/60 right now. He would decline though.

 

Would probably take 4/100

[DigitalRock]

Bo , vlad...maybe Semien, but we have a lot of players to sign soon, so depends on amount.

[wamco]

Bo, Vlad, Ray, Matz and Semien would all be worthy of consideration. I might consider Chatwood as well but my guess is he'll want to test the market after recently reinventing himself.

 

Well now would be the time to strike if you wanted a good deal on chatwood.

[Terminator]

Well now would be the time to strike if you wanted a good deal on chatwood.

 

Oof. I've got some impeccable timing don't I? lol

[Krylian]

Does 10/250 get it done for Vladdy today?

[Captain Adama]

Does 10/250 get it done for Vladdy today?

 

Considering Tatis as the benchmark and comparable, no way.

 

He's very likely looking for 300+ million

[Stangstag]

Considering Tatis as the benchmark and comparable, no way.

 

He's very likely looking for 300+ million

 

Acuna 10/124

 

Lets meet in the middle haha.

 

Damn that Acuna contract is robbery, he’s gonna be the most underpaid player in baseball for quite some time

[jimedmonds]

would Vlad Jr sign a 10 year deal? Feels sub-optimal for him to re-up at age 32/33. I'm guessing he and his agent would look for either 7 years or 15 years. My offer would be something like 7/190 or 15/400. I'd probably just offer the 15 year deal and take the risk - I can't see this bat regressing below a .300-30-100 clip even as he approaches his mid-30s. Will have to DH him in his latter years, but the first 10 years of his contract could be legendary

[G-Snarls]

Acuna 10/124

 

Lets meet in the middle haha.

 

Damn that Acuna contract is robbery, he’s gonna be the most underpaid player in baseball for quite some time

 

That's what I'm thinking too

 

Something in between

 

10-12 years for 260-280M

 

Vlad is an amazing hitter. But he isn't a gold glove potential shortstop.

Edited June 3, 2021 by G-Snarls

[Jimcanuck]

would Vlad Jr sign a 10 year deal? Feels sub-optimal for him to re-up at age 32/33. I'm guessing he and his agent would look for either 7 years or 15 years. My offer would be something like 7/190 or 15/400. I'd probably just offer the 15 year deal and take the risk - I can't see this bat regressing below a .300-30-100 clip even as he approaches his mid-30s. Will have to DH him in his latter years, but the first 10 years of his contract could be legendary

 

I'd rather do the 7/8 year deal, long enough to capture most of the prime years, and not so long that it does not become immovable if it is in the Jays best interests to move him.

[AdamGreenwood]

Only one I would want to extend for the next 20 years is Mark Shapiro

[DigitalRock]

Considering Tatis as the benchmark and comparable, no way.

 

He's very likely looking for 300+ million

 

Tatis and acuna have speed and play premier positions though .... tatis plays Short stop and is gold glove potential.

[DigitalRock]

That's what I'm thinking too

 

Something in between

 

10-12 years for 260-280M

 

Vlad is an amazing hitter. But he isn't a gold glove potential shortstop.

 

This.

[Krylian]

That's what I'm thinking too

 

Something in between

 

10-12 years for 260-280M

 

Vlad is an amazing hitter. But he isn't a gold glove potential shortstop.

 

Does Gold Glove winning 1B count for anything?

[Laika]

Does Gold Glove winning 1B count for anything?

 

not much, especially when the player, you know, hasn't won a a gold glove

[Krylian]

not much, especially when the player, you know, hasn't won a a gold glove

 

I get that....I'm playing the crystal ball game. If his defense does continue to improve at its current rate and he does get to that elite D level, how does an elite defensive 1B compare to an elite defensive SS (value wise). Understand it's not the same in reality...but from a contractual standpoint, do you really think you'd see much of a difference?

[Brownie19]

Tatis and acuna have speed and play premier positions though .... tatis plays Short stop and is gold glove potential.

 

I love Tatis - he's the new face of baseball and maybe one day his defense will catch up with everything else he dominates at. But he's the worst defensive shortstop in baseball right now. 15 errors in 37 games. 36 errors in his 177 career games. Negative 3.1 defensive value on Fangraphs. He makes Bo Bichette look like Ozzie Smith right now and most here wanted Bo removed permanently from SS like 4 weeks ago.