Off Day Discussion #3: Who on the current team should the Blue Jays extend?

[TwistedLogic]

Since the Blue Jays were rained out, this is now essentially an off-day. I had another topic in mind for today but I'm pushing it off because I liked this suggestion from G-Snarls as a discussion point.

 

The Toronto Blue Jays, perhaps more than any other team in Major League Baseball, have a lot of very interesting extension cases. Between young stars like Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr, players trying to prove they're the real deal like Teoscar Hernandez and Steven Matz, journeymen that look like potential breakout candidates like Julian Merryweather and Tyler Chatwood and a legitimate expiring free agent in Marcus Semien.

 

If you were GM and every player on the roster were willing to talk extension in-season, which of them would you extend? Make a list of players you want the Jays to give longer contracts to and include the terms and dollars you think would ideally get it done.

[The Cats Ass]

Bo

 

I want to say Vlad, but I’d like to see him keep the weight off for a couple years.

[43211234]

Robbie Ray 3 years $50M if that gets it done.

[BTS]

Aside from potential mega-contracts to Bo and Vlad, I don't see anyone really screaming for an extension. Ray and Matz if you can get them for 2-3 years at reasonable money. Teo has been a nice player the last couple years, but he's a corner OF and still controllable through 2023. I wouldn't be in a hurry to lock up his age-31 season and beyond.

 

Semien is an interesting case. Elite in 2019, and elite in 2021. He bet on himself this year with a pillow contract, and is probably looking at a Lemahieu deal if he finishes with 5+ WAR. The debate on whether you'd give it to him would make for an interesting thread on its own

[Jimcanuck]

Montoya!!!

[max silver]

I'd give a contract extension to Vlad in a heartbeat, but outside of a Tatis like contract I can't really see him being interested in signing one. Bo could be an extension candidate in the future, but first I'd like to see if he can get his plate discipline issues under control a bit, his ceiling is likely to be determined by whether or not he stops hacking at everything in Kevin Pillar fashion and starts hunting pitches. Teoscar is a guy I'd like to see extended, no idea what's reasonable. Perhaps a Grichuk like extension would be possible, but if I were Teoscar's agent I'd be shooting for much more than that as he has raked continuously since his midseason of 2020 breakout. Semien is a guy I'd lock up for sure if an agreement can be reached that's amenable for both sides, I wouldn't worry about taking away Biggio's best position when you can hang onto a 6 win player. I was initially thinking a contract similar to DJ Lemahieu would make a good starting point, but Semien is several years younger. Semien certainly won't resign for cheap, he's well on his way to a second 6+ win season in the last 3 years, I could see it taking something 5 years in the $125 million range to keep him. Before this season I thought Gurriel might be an extension candidate, but he's taken a big step back defensively and appears semi lost in the outfield a good chunk of the time. He's far too streaky a player to consider a core member, he's either looking like one of the world's best hitters or hacking at everything that's thrown his way, there is seemingly no in between.

 

On the pitching side I wouldn't mind extensions for both Ray and Matz being explored, each has resurrected their career as Blue Jays and really helped to keep the rotation afloat. They have both historically displayed good health and ability to stay on the mound. 3 years for each would be great at $12-15 million per year, if it started taking more like 4 or more years I'd be hesitant.

[Grant77]

I would say Reese McGuire, but he's already had an extension.

[TwistedLogic]

Who knows, maybe Semien is more open to talking contract than we think. This upcoming free agent shortstop class is the most hilariously busted class for a single position maybe in the history of baseball, and that's even with Lindor already taking himself off the market.

 

There will be a ridiculous amount of competition for shortstops in the coming market.

 

2022 Free Agent Shortstop Class:

 

Francisco Lindor

Marcus Semien

Carlos Correa

Trevor Story

Corey Seager

Brandon Crawford

Javier Baez

Miguel Rojas

Jose Iglesias

Freddy Galvis

Andrelton Simmons

[max silver]

Who knows, maybe Semien is more open to talking contract than we think. This upcoming free agent shortstop class is the most hilariously busted class for a single position maybe in the history of baseball, and that's even with Lindor already taking himself off the market.

 

There will be a ridiculous amount of competition for shortstops in the coming market.

 

2022 Free Agent Shortstop Class:

 

Francisco Lindor

Marcus Semien

Carlos Correa

Trevor Story

Corey Seager

Brandon Crawford

Javier Baez

Miguel Rojas

Jose Iglesias

Freddy Galvis

Andrelton Simmons

 

Semien and his agent made a great move accepting the Jays offer to move off shortstop and play second base. There are far fewer really good quality second basemen compared to short stop, so Semien isn't tied to the shortstop position only. If he doesn't find a short stop offer to his liking he can simply slide back to second base again.

[saskjayfan]

Aside from potential mega-contracts to Bo and Vlad, I don't see anyone really screaming for an extension. Ray and Matz if you can get them for 2-3 years at reasonable money. Teo has been a nice player the last couple years, but he's a corner OF and still controllable through 2023. I wouldn't be in a hurry to lock up his age-31 season and beyond.

 

Semien is an interesting case. Elite in 2019, and elite in 2021. He bet on himself this year with a pillow contract, and is probably looking at a Lemahieu deal if he finishes with 5+ WAR. The debate on whether you'd give it to him would make for an interesting thread on its own

 

Teoscar....He's a 5 win player, but maybe isn't used to being that guy himself yet. The sooner you get a deal done the cheaper it is. You might get his free agent years for 3 and 50ish. I'd do that for sure.

[King]

I'm taking the under on Teoscar being a 5-win player.

[BTS]

Teoscar....He's a 5 win player, but maybe isn't used to being that guy himself yet. The sooner you get a deal done the cheaper it is. You might get his free agent years for 3 and 50ish. I'd do that for sure.

 

I don't think he'll ever have a 5-win season, let alone be a true talent 5-win player. He might be a nice 3-4 player for a few years, and that's worth something. But this team isn't going to be kicking itself for not jumping to lock up Teo's early 30s. Michael Brantley is the caliber of OF people hope Teo can consistently be, and he signed for 2/32 before his age-32 season, then for the same amount before 34.

[saskjayfan]

I'm taking the under on Teoscar being a 5-win player.

Well he's put 2.7 wins in the last 81 games. I believe in the bat.

[saskjayfan]

I don't think he'll ever have a 5-win season, let alone be a true talent 5-win player. He might be a nice 3-4 player for a few years, and that's worth something. But this team isn't going to be kicking itself for not jumping to lock up Teo's early 30s. Michael Brantley is the kind of caliber of OF people hope Teo can consistently be, and he signed for 2/32 before his age-32 season, then for the same amount before 34.

 

He's put 1.2 in 31 games this year. He put up a .939 OPS in the 2nd half of 2019. He put up a .919 OPS last year. He's put up an .895 OPS this year. He's been a .900 OPS bat for a while now. His average exit velocity is elite and his plate discipline has been getting better as time has gone on.

[BTS]

He's put 1.2 in 31 games this year. He put up a .939 OPS in the 2nd half of 2019. He put up a .919 OPS last year. He's put up an .895 OPS this year. He's been a .900 OPS bat for a while now. His average exit velocity is elite and his plate discipline has been getting better as time has gone on.

 

Projection systems see all of that and still see him as a 110-130 wRC+ guy and about a 3-win player. That's still good! But its not a player that needs to be locked up 2.5 years early. Especially when he's already 28 and doesn't add value on the basepaths or in the field. It seems needlessly reckless to leave his last 500 PA or whatever completely unregressed and assume he's now a 140 wRC+ guy for the next 5 years or whatever.

Edited May 27, 2021 by BTS

[max silver]

Projection systems see all of that and still see him as a 110-130 wRC+ guy and about a 3-win player. That's still good! But its not a player that needs to be locked up 2.5 years early. Especially when he's already 28 and doesn't add value on the basepaths or in the field It seems needlessly reckless to leave his last 500 PA or whatever completely unregressed and assume he's now a 140 wRC+ guy for the next 5 years or whatever.

 

There's definitely some risk in extending any player as you can't see the future, but Teoscar isn't the same player he was early in his career, and it seems that projection systems are still placing a certain weight on his pre-breakout numbers. He's been performing now at this level for almost two full calendar years over 3 different seasons, it's time to acknowledge this is the player he is going forward.

 

Teoscar's numbers since the July 2019 breakout are pretty crazy, he's produced a 142 WRC+ and 4.5 WAR in 148 games. He's been a contributor on the bases during this time with 1.2 base runs as well. Maybe he's "only" a 4.5 win player at this point, but this season he looks to have taken a step forward defensively, and has honed in on a new and improved approach at the plate which has seem him cut his k rate dramatically. I don't think we really know what his true ceiling is yet, second half of 2019 and during the shortened 2020 season he mashed despite the extreme strikeout rate, and if that's no longer an issue then the sky is the limit offensively. Despite a slow start prior to his covid infection he's on a 6.3 win pace when prorated over an entire season. He won't be winning any gold gloves in the field due to the occasional boneheaded moment that creeps up, but he's not he same liability out there that he was earlier on during his Blue Jays tenure. Depending on what version of Springer eventually returns from injury it's entirely possible Teoscar is the team's most valuable outfielder going forward, that sounds like a player you should try to lock up at a discount.

[BTS]

Fans’ inclination to toss aside projections when they don’t like what the projections say are exactly what makes the projections useful.

 

I fall victim too. I talked myself into Gio Urshela being better than his tepid 2021 projections because the Yankees completely changed him and he’s been a different player since 2019. So far this year the expert projections are better than BTS projections: he’s better than he was in 2018, but the smart move was regressing his 2019 and 2020 significantly back towards league average.

 

If you have a guy significantly better than the most optimistic projections, it is almost always you who is wrong.

[max silver]

Fans’ inclination to toss aside projections when they don’t like what the projections say are exactly what makes the projections useful.

 

I fall victim too. I talked myself into Gio Urshela being better than his tepid 2021 projections because the Yankees completely changed him and he’s been a different player since 2019. So far this year the expert projections are better than BTS projections: he’s better than he was in 2018, but the smart move was regressing his 2019 and 2020 significantly back towards league average.

 

If you have a guy significantly better than the most optimistic projections, it is almost always you who is wrong.

 

It's always just felt to me like the projection systems are of limited usefulness for players who unlock new levels of performance later in their career. Some of Teoscar's projections heading into 2021 were downright laughable, I recall seeing projections showing a 100 WRC+ player for 2021. He was only ever that bad exactly one time in his career as a rookie. He had a really bad first half in 2019 leading to his demotion to AAA, but since returning he's done nothing but mash. The projections always seem to assume a player is going to lose any newfound abilities and regress to prior career norms, and Teoscar is a guy I would bet that the opposite is happening right before our eyes. Before getting hurt last season he was really locking into a previously unseen advanced approach at the plate, which after returning from the covid list he has resumed this approach which has seem him really cutting back on his strikeouts. K rates tend to stabilize pretty quickly, I've seen it suggested that it stabilizes in as little as 60 plate appearances or 15 games. In his last 24 games Teoscar has a k rate of only 15%, so when projection systems (and all of them are assuming this to be the case for the rest of the season) that his strikeout rate is somehow going to balloon back up to 30% I'm going to take that with a grain of salt.

[Laika]

Fans’ inclination to toss aside projections when they don’t like what the projections say are exactly what makes the projections useful.

 

I fall victim too. I talked myself into Gio Urshela being better than his tepid 2021 projections because the Yankees completely changed him and he’s been a different player since 2019. So far this year the expert projections are better than BTS projections: he’s better than he was in 2018, but the smart move was regressing his 2019 and 2020 significantly back towards league average.

 

If you have a guy significantly better than the most optimistic projections, it is almost always you who is wrong.

 

In the other direction, the systems largely kept telling everyone that Vlad would still be a great hitter despite all of his MLB mediocrity. Preseason 2021 Steamer said .372 wOBA!

Edited May 27, 2021 by Laika

[Jimcanuck]

It's possible Teoscar averages 4 WAR/yr for the next 5 years. It's a very unlikely outcome though.

 

He's got a .348 BABIP in 2020, and rocking a .375 BABIP so far in 2021. Those numbers will regress.

 

Extension decisions cannot be made on an individual player basis. Shatkins has an idea of the max budget Rogers will allocate to player salaries. Just like any organization, need to look at the entire team and project values for each player going forward, using aging curves, etc. We all know the Jays have a bunch of elite young players that will be elite for much longer than Teoscar. Those players are the priorities for signing long term. And I am sure the Jays have allocated a hefty amount for FA signings, particularly for pitching. Where Teoscar fits in the team budget calculus, who knows. But I suspect there is a good probabiity he is traded / not extended.

 

In fact, trading Teo after this season would be a classic sell high move.

[saskjayfan]

It's possible Teoscar averages 4 WAR/yr for the next 5 years. It's a very unlikely outcome though.

 

He's got a .348 BABIP in 2020, and rocking a .375 BABIP so far in 2021. Those numbers will regress.

 

Extension decisions cannot be made on an individual player basis. Shatkins has an idea of the max budget Rogers will allocate to player salaries. Just like any organization, need to look at the entire team and project values for each player going forward, using aging curves, etc. We all know the Jays have a bunch of elite young players that will be elite for much longer than Teoscar. Those players are the priorities for signing long term. And I am sure the Jays have allocated a hefty amount for FA signings, particularly for pitching. Where Teoscar fits in the team budget calculus, who knows. But I suspect there is a good probabiity he is traded / not extended.

 

In fact, trading Teo after this season would be a classic sell high move.

 

Projections are a lagging indicator. Vlad is outperforming the projections he had coming into this year by a mile. Teoscar's xwoba is .382. He's hit 32% line drives this year. Teoscar has a lot of swing and miss, but when he hits it he hits it hard. His contact rates both in and out of the zone are up quite a bit his year, so he's swinging and missing less. When you hit the ball as hard as Teoscar does and you have elite sprint speed you're going to have a high babip even if it does come down a bit. His walk could go up a bit too. His strike out rate is 22% this year and league average is 24% this year. You can trade him all you want. I'll take the other side and stick with the mirage. I think there's been meaningful improvement in his game and approach.

[Brownie19]

How many PA's does it take for K% to stabilize?

[BTS]

Projections are a lagging indicator. Vlad is outperforming the projections he had coming into this year by a mile. Teoscar's xwoba is .382. He's hit 32% line drives this year. Teoscar has a lot of swing and miss, but when he hits it he hits it hard. His contact rates both in and out of the zone are up quite a bit his year, so he's swinging and missing less. When you hit the ball as hard as Teoscar does and you have elite sprint speed you're going to have a high babip even if it does come down a bit. His walk could go up a bit too. His strike out rate is 22% this year and league average is 24% this year. You can trade him all you want. I'll take the other side and stick with the mirage. I think there's been meaningful improvement in his game and approach.

 

To be clear, everyone thinks there’s been meaningful improvement in his game. All I’m saying is that he’s probably not a top-15 hitter in baseball for the next 4 years, even though he’s been that for the last 500 PA. It’s probably smarter to assume he’s Michael Brantley or Michael Conforto with the bat than it is to assume he’s Freddie Freeman. That’s all.

[saskjayfan]

To be clear, everyone thinks thereÂ’s been meaningful improvement in his game. All IÂ’m saying is that heÂ’s probably not a top-15 hitter in baseball for the next 4 years, even though heÂ’s been that for the last 500 PA. ItÂ’s probably smarter to assume heÂ’s Michael Brantley or Michael Conforto with the bat than it is to assume heÂ’s Freddie Freeman. ThatÂ’s all.

 

Fair enough. I'm an optimist with bias. I can acknowledge that. Steamer had him with a .777 OPS coming into the season. I think he's an .850+ OPS bat. Maybe he's an .800 to .850 OPS type bat. In a couple years we'll find out. Regardless, he was a pretty great steal for a couple months of liriano.

[Stangstag]

I don't think he'll ever have a 5-win season, let alone be a true talent 5-win player. He might be a nice 3-4 player for a few years, and that's worth something. But this team isn't going to be kicking itself for not jumping to lock up Teo's early 30s. Michael Brantley is the caliber of OF people hope Teo can consistently be, and he signed for 2/32 before his age-32 season, then for the same amount before 34.

 

Brantley also had massive injury concerns, important to remember

[Olerud363]

Fans’ inclination to toss aside projections when they don’t like what the projections say are exactly what makes the projections useful.

 

I fall victim too. I talked myself into Gio Urshela being better than his tepid 2021 projections because the Yankees completely changed him and he’s been a different player since 2019. So far this year the expert projections are better than BTS projections: he’s better than he was in 2018, but the smart move was regressing his 2019 and 2020 significantly back towards league average.

 

If you have a guy significantly better than the most optimistic projections, it is almost always you who is wrong.

 

Gio Urshella is hitting at his career average. That's really all the projection system does. You can make your own. Career average * (1 - (age-27)/27*a)

 

I think the above is right -- maybe a typo -- the idea would be you improve a bit up to 27 then decay a bit, so career average * an age factor

[G-Snarls]

A year ago you might have gotten Vlad Jr on an Acuna Jr level contract

 

Not anymore

[G-Snarls]

Ray this year

 

Vlad and Bo within the next couple of years please

 

TYVM

[Jimcanuck]

Projections are a lagging indicator. Vlad is outperforming the projections he had coming into this year by a mile. Teoscar's xwoba is .382. He's hit 32% line drives this year. Teoscar has a lot of swing and miss, but when he hits it he hits it hard. His contact rates both in and out of the zone are up quite a bit his year, so he's swinging and missing less. When you hit the ball as hard as Teoscar does and you have elite sprint speed you're going to have a high babip even if it does come down a bit. His walk could go up a bit too. His strike out rate is 22% this year and league average is 24% this year. You can trade him all you want. I'll take the other side and stick with the mirage. I think there's been meaningful improvement in his game and approach.

 

I'm not advocating trading Teoscar. All I am saying is you can't look at Teoscar in isolation from team context. Not everyone can be signed/extended at free agent market rate. Given his age, performance history, BABIP fueled outbreak, the fact he plays a position relatively easy to fill, etc.... signing Teoscar long term is probably down the list in terms of team priorities. And being traded instead is a very real possibility.

[Ray]

We’re in a great position for next year, payroll wise. Only $64M committed, and besides Vlad and Teo, no one else will be making anything too substantial in arbitration.

 

I think extending Marcus Semien would be one of my highest priorities, assuming he is okay with playing 2B long term. He’s become a cornerstone of this offense so far. I’d offer $15M-$16M AAV over 4-5 years and see if that gets it done. I don’t think he gets more than DJ LeMahieu, but it might be close.

 

See if we can extend one of Robbie Ray/Steven Matz on a multi year deal. Either would be fine with me, albeit I have a slight preference for Ray because of upside.

 

Still have some time with Vlad/Bo for now, but if you can get Teo done on something reasonably team friendly through age 32 with a team option, it’s worth doing. Maybe 4 years, $36M or something to that effect? The market for his types isn’t 5”too pricey. Marcell Ozuna just got $64M as a free agent for example.

 

Other than that, go for a superstar pitcher on a 1-year deal. I’m thinking Max Scherzer.