Marcus Semien to the Jays

[Grant77]

Who are you waiting on Bauer? I kid, Odorizzi or Paxton, sounds like Tanaka's going home, I forget who you like?

 

I probably would have handed this 18 million to Tanaka, but I think you are right that he will go home. I don't have a huge preference between Paxton or Odorizzi. It's just that we must add a starting pitcher or two. I still expect that we will.

Edited January 27, 2021 by Grant77

[bones10]

Would anyone here have preferred signing Simmons? they basically got the same deal.

[G-Snarls]

Would anyone here have preferred signing Simmons? they basically got the same deal.

 

Would have been fine with either

 

Simmons is the better defender obviously, but he prob wouldn't have agreed to play anywhere but shortstop and Semien's bat is better

[bones10]

Would have been fine with either

 

Simmons is the better defender obviously, but he prob wouldn't have agreed to play anywhere but shortstop and Semien's bat is better

 

to me, outside of 2019 the bats are pretty much identical. Simmons seems to be the much better defender, but you're right theres no chance he'd move off short.

[Orgfiller]

Would anyone here have preferred signing Simmons? they basically got the same deal.

 

In a sense Simmons gives us less flexibility, as he's almost certainly signing to play SS only. He offers a lot lower upside than Semien but potentially a higher floor since his defense has consistently been top-of-the-scale elite his entire career. He also kind of quit on the Angels last season which isn't the greatest look for a young up-and-coming team so one could argue Semien is a higher character guy and we could speak all day about how much that actually means but the org clearly chases those types. Given that it forces us to move Bichette off SS for potentially only a season, I prefer acquiring Semien who can step in at SS in a pinch but won't demand to do so and will play wherever he's asked.

[Boxcar]

I apologize for posting here, but in case people don't know, Big Trev has been giving his own updates on his free agency and what he wants from teams on his YouTube channel. He doesn't divulge anything super sensitive or bring up any teams, but the things he values most seem to line up exactly with what the Jays a) need and are willing to do.

 

1. He wants a team that will pitch him on a 4 day rotation. He explains the reasoning for this in that he typically feels most ready to go on this timeframe. He also points out that he's been ahead of the curve on pitcher strength training methods and such from day one. He was so far ahead that he developed that label of being uncoachable when the reality is that he knew more than his coaches did.

 

2. With the Blue Jays emphasis on the high performance department, they are also ahead of the curve on maintaining player health and advanced training techniques.

 

3. With Nate Pearson surely on an innings limit, having Bauer go every 4 games gives a lot of opportunities to limit his innings count. Ryu as well, and Borucki if he makes it on the rotation.

 

Is won't lie, I found the video to be a bit of a slog but there is some pretty key information here.

 

[Laika]

In a sense Simmons gives us less flexibility, as he's almost certainly signing to play SS only. He offers a lot lower upside than Semien but potentially a higher floor since his defense has consistently been top-of-the-scale elite his entire career. He also kind of quit on the Angels last season which isn't the greatest look for a young up-and-coming team so one could argue Semien is a higher character guy and we could speak all day about how much that actually means but the org clearly chases those types. Given that it forces us to move Bichette off SS for potentially only a season, I prefer acquiring Semien who can step in at SS in a pinch but won't demand to do so and will play wherever he's asked.

 

Yeah Semien is a better fit for this group.

 

Also should be a really good example for Austin Martin, who might need a similar type of defensive work ethic if he's going to stick at a premium position.

[Pendleton]

In a sense Simmons gives us less flexibility, as he's almost certainly signing to play SS only. He offers a lot lower upside than Semien but potentially a higher floor since his defense has consistently been top-of-the-scale elite his entire career. He also kind of quit on the Angels last season which isn't the greatest look for a young up-and-coming team so one could argue Semien is a higher character guy and we could speak all day about how much that actually means but the org clearly chases those types. Given that it forces us to move Bichette off SS for potentially only a season, I prefer acquiring Semien who can step in at SS in a pinch but won't demand to do so and will play wherever he's asked.

 

I can understand it from Simmons perspective, wanting to continue showcasing his main selling point, especially if he's forced to take a shorter term deal this off season. Definitely agree that Semien makes more sense for this team.

[G-Snarls]

Semien career .254/.322/.425 wRC+ 105, OPS+ 105

 

Simmons career .269/.317/.379 wRC+ 90, OPS+ 91

 

Similar on base, more extra base power for Semien

[Spanky99]

I apologize for posting here, but in case people don't know, Big Trev has been giving his own updates on his free agency and what he wants from teams on his YouTube channel. He doesn't divulge anything super sensitive or bring up any teams, but the things he values most seem to line up exactly with what the Jays a) need and are willing to do.

 

1. He wants a team that will pitch him on a 4 day rotation. He explains the reasoning for this in that he typically feels most ready to go on this timeframe. He also points out that he's been ahead of the curve on pitcher strength training methods and such from day one. He was so far ahead that he developed that label of being uncoachable when the reality is that he knew more than his coaches did.

 

2. With the Blue Jays emphasis on the high performance department, they are also ahead of the curve on maintaining player health and advanced training techniques.

 

3. With Nate Pearson surely on an innings limit, having Bauer go every 4 games gives a lot of opportunities to limit his innings count. Ryu as well, and Borucki if he makes it on the rotation.

 

Is won't lie, I found the video to be a bit of a slog but there is some pretty key information here.

 

 

Boxbike, you still have some AFC Championship heartburn? I do.

[Orgfiller]

to me, outside of 2019 the bats are pretty much identical. Simmons seems to be the much better defender, but you're right theres no chance he'd move off short.

 

I see your point but I'm not sure this is entirely the case. His whole A's career Semien has been a roughly league average hitter with his plate discipline numbers slowly but continually trending in the right direction and flashes of real pop, basically culminating in his 2019 breakout. He also raked in the minors for what it's worth. Simmons on the other hand has been a slap hitter from day one, making tons of contact but never with much authority until his 17-18 seasons where he finally tapped into some in-game power. I think even if you regress Semien's 2019 season to his mean he's still comfortably around 10% better than Simmons at the plate.

[Spanky99]

May I ask how these deals were similar? 7.5M is a lot.

[Boxcar]

Boxbike, you still have some AFC Championship heartburn? I do.

 

I don't want to talk about it. I haven't watched anything NFL related since other than the Cover 1 Bills podcasts. There's a live film breakdown of Allen's game tonight on the YouTube channel at 7pm. Erik Turner does a really good job.

 

But yeah, I still feel sick. I'm not sure if I'd have rather lost a close heartbreaker or getting absolutely dominated like they were.

[max silver]

Would anyone here have preferred signing Simmons? they basically got the same deal.

 

I go with the potential upside of Semien all day long. This is a player who is only 60 games removed from an MVP calibre season. Simmons has had recurring ankle injury issues the last few years that have caused his defensive numbers to tumble, so there's no guarantee you are getting the all world defender if he's signed.

[connorp]

I go with Didi in a choice of the 3. I trust him to give 4 wins before Semien but if it’s who might give 6 wins it’s Semien. I’ll take the safer bet though. Plus it’d prob be a 2 year where he could be there where you can ease in the prospects you hope will take over 2022.

 

Of course hopefully they find a good 1 year plug next year

[Spanky99]

I go with the potential upside of Semien all day long. This is a player who is only 60 games removed from an MVP calibre season. Simmons has had recurring ankle injury issues the last few years that have caused his defensive numbers to tumble, so there's no guarantee you are getting the all world defender if he's signed.

 

We also don't know if he wanted to come here, he kiboshed a trade to us at the deadline last year, than later quit on his own team. f*** that guy, who needs Simba when we can have Semien.

[Spanky99]

I go with Didi in a choice of the 3. I trust him to give 4 wins before Semien but if it’s who might give 6 wins it’s Semien. I’ll take the safer bet though. Plus it’d prob be a 2 year where he could be there where you can ease in the prospects you hope will take over 2022.

 

Of course hopefully they find a good 1 year plug next year

 

That plug could be Semien, or we get a supplementary pick after offering him a QO.

[wilko]

I go with Didi in a choice of the 3. I trust him to give 4 wins before Semien but if it’s who might give 6 wins it’s Semien. I’ll take the safer bet though. Plus it’d prob be a 2 year where he could be there where you can ease in the prospects you hope will take over 2022.

 

Of course hopefully they find a good 1 year plug next year

 

[G-Snarls]

That plug could be Semien, or we get a supplementary pick after offering him a QO.

 

Yes, these 1 year deals on good players can be great for nabbing an extra year or collecting a draft pick

[connorp]

]

 

People were throwing hypotheticals out there lol

I’m not losing sleep on it. I’d join the chorus of boos if they didn’t bring on legit SP by start of season though. I think they will for the record

[glory]

I liked Didi as a fit, but between him and Semien on a one year deal, I'd definitely choose Semien. There is an article on FG that says in his first 14 games of 2020 he had a 24 wRC+ and -0.2 WAR, but then in his next 46 (regular and post season) he had a 133 wRC+ and 2.0 WAR. So basically in 86% of his total 2020 plate appearances, he was the 2019 version of Semien. This signing has very real upside. I hope he has a great year and cashes out next winter.

[Carlos Danger]

I liked Didi as a fit, but between him and Semien on a one year deal, I'd definitely choose Semien. There is an article on FG that says in his first 14 games of 2020 he had a 24 wRC+ and -0.2 WAR, but then in his next 46 (regular and post season) he had a 133 wRC+ and 2.0 WAR. So basically in 86% of his total 2020 plate appearances, he was the 2019 version of Semien. This signing has very real upside. I hope he has a great year and cashes out next winter.

 

Yup, Semien had something like a plus 1100 OPS the last week of the season and playoffs.. So, if you take his 2019 season plus in my mind when he just started getting warmed up in aggregate, he is the clearly superior offensive player of the three.

 

I thought Semien and Bradley jr would make this team better. That was when I thought Springer would go to the Mets and I thought I was being realistic.

 

Now Semien and Springer, fnnn great!!

 

Still need Pitching or all moot.

[connorp]

I liked Didi as a fit, but between him and Semien on a one year deal, I'd definitely choose Semien. There is an article on FG that says in his first 14 games of 2020 he had a 24 wRC+ and -0.2 WAR, but then in his next 46 (regular and post season) he had a 133 wRC+ and 2.0 WAR. So basically in 86% of his total 2020 plate appearances, he was the 2019 version of Semien. This signing has very real upside. I hope he has a great year and cashes out next winter.

 

Meh. Season splits are what they are. They can break a million ways. Like in a regular season you have someone that’s super awesome 4 of 6 months and 2 they’re terrible, guys that are good first half, second half, etc. You can get into is it better to be good at beginning or end... but most important fact that sticks is out is season ended up being like almost every other one in his career except one.

 

That said...I’m not s***ing oh him and it’s definitely worth the one year shot of trying to catch some lightning as long as we get SP too

[max silver]

Meh. Season splits are what they are. They can break a million ways. Like in a regular season you have someone that’s super awesome 4 of 6 months and 2 they’re terrible, guys that are good first half, second half, etc. You can get into is it better to be good at beginning or end... but most important fact that sticks is out is season ended up being like almost every other one in his career except one.

 

That said...I’m not s***ing oh him and it’s definitely worth the one year shot of trying to catch some lightning as long as we get SP too

 

Semien's numbers were basically ruined by a bad two week slump to start the season. In a season where it was only 60 games long it's foolhardy to place as much emphasis on the end of season results compared to a full season of play. There is a very realistic possibility that with a full season to recover Semien's results wouldn't have been that much worse than 2019.

[connorp]

Semien's numbers were basically ruined by a bad two week slump to start the season. In a season where it was only 60 games long it's foolhardy to place as much emphasis on the end of season results compared to a full season of play. There is a very realistic possibility that with a full season to recover Semien's results wouldn't have been that much worse than 2019.

 

I don’t understand the difference between that and someone that has a horrible 2 weeks spread out during the 60 games. Or to end the season rather than at the start. As it stands you can say “oh he figured it out” but you could justify away any other split.

 

Simply saying Didi has been the more consistent with 4 WAR play 3 of past 4 seasons with serious injury in only down year. He doesn’t possess same upside as Semien though.

 

Mostly I’m just being a contrarian and I’ll be rooting for Semien to be 2019

[max silver]

I don’t understand the difference between that and someone that has a horrible 2 weeks spread out during the 60 games. Or to end the season rather than at the start. As it stands you can say “oh he figured it out” but you could justify away any other split.

 

Simply saying Didi has been the more consistent with 4 WAR play 3 of past 4 seasons with serious injury in only down year. He doesn’t possess same upside as Semien though.

 

Mostly I’m just being a contrarian and I’ll be rooting for Semien to be 2019

 

The bad two weeks has an oversized impact due to the shortened nature of the season, making it far more difficult to project Semien going forward. Fangraphs has an article up today, where Zips projections for Semien are very encouraging. The 50 percentile outcome is 4.1 WAR, I really don't think Gregorius is has a very realistic shot at that type of season even on the higher range of his expected outcomes.

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=biggio001cav

[Laika]

Connorp is right. The bad 2 weeks did happen. It's tempting to say that Semien "figured it out" and would have produced 6 WAR in a full season, but he also could have went into a late summer slump...

[glory]

The finish to the season isn't meant to ignore the first 14 games, those games happened so they count, but it's meant to show that looking at 2020 as a continuation of his pre-2019 performance can be misleading. It was literally a terrible 14 game stretch followed by 46 games at a level closer to his 2019. Maybe he would have been streaky all season if the season were 162 games and finished around where he did, we don't know, but I think there's cause for optimism for his 2021 performance.

[Laika]

The finish to the season isn't meant to ignore the first 14 games, those games happened so they count, but it's meant to show that looking at 2020 as a continuation of his pre-2019 performance can be misleading. It was literally a terrible 14 game stretch followed by 46 games at a level closer to his 2019. Maybe he would have been streaky all season if the season were 162 games and finished around where he did, we don't know, but I think there's cause for optimism for his 2021 performance.

 

Maybe but most player seasons are full of such inconsistencies. You'll be player of the month in June and then in August you can't hit a curveball.

[Spanky99]

If he hits near his projection we're laughing, damn good signing.