General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2021)

[Brownie19]

I'd love to hear what the minnesota GM would say if that offer came though his phone. He'd probably hang up before the sentence was even finished.

 

I don't know man. That would save them over $30M and JD's contract is an albatross at $25M per year

[John_Havok]

I don't know man. That would save them over $30M and JD's contract is an albatross at $25M per year

 

2-4 WAR player at 25 per year for the next 2 years (assuming the 8M buyout for 2024 is done) is hardly an albatross. Yeah, I can see why Minnesota isn't hyped about spending that kind of money on him, given their current situation, but they're not gonna be so eager to move Donaldson that they take pennies on the dollar.

 

Donaldson killed baseballs this year and was pretty much at his career norms in K and walk rates. Oddly, his WAR was down due to a bad defensive year which I would be skeptical that he just drops off a cliff in that way. Donaldson could easily be a 4-5 WAR player next season.

 

Would I love to get rid of Grichuk and pick up Donaldson? Of course, but thinking it would be a 1 for 1 swap is ludicrous.

[Spanky99]

I don't know man. That would save them over $30M and JD's contract is an albatross at $25M per year

 

That's if he's indeed on the market, but if it were for cost saving that deal makes sense, have to add a lottery ticket to say they got something, that can be worked out in the cash.

[Spanky99]

2-4 WAR player at 25 per year for the next 2 years (assuming the 8M buyout for 2024 is done) is hardly an albatross. Yeah, I can see why Minnesota isn't hyped about spending that kind of money on him, given their current situation, but they're not gonna be so eager to move Donaldson that they take pennies on the dollar.

 

Donaldson killed baseballs this year and was pretty much at his career norms in K and walk rates. Oddly, his WAR was down due to a bad defensive year which I would be skeptical that he just drops off a cliff in that way. Donaldson could easily be a 4 WAR player next season.

 

Would I love to get rid of Grichuk and pick up Donaldson? Of course, but thinking it would be a 1 for 1 swap is ludicrous.

 

So the value just gets thrown out the window? Simulators say different, and I'm sure his age and injury history has something to do with that.

[Brownie19]

2-4 WAR player at 25 per year for the next 2 years (assuming the 8M buyout for 2024 is done) is hardly an albatross. Yeah, I can see why Minnesota isn't hyped about spending that kind of money on him, given their current situation, but they're not gonna be so eager to move Donaldson that they take pennies on the dollar.

 

Donaldson killed baseballs this year and was pretty much at his career norms in K and walk rates. Oddly, his WAR was down due to a bad defensive year which I would be skeptical that he just drops off a cliff in that way. Donaldson could easily be a 4 WAR player next season.

 

Would I love to get rid of Grichuk and pick up Donaldson? Of course, but thinking it would be a 1 for 1 swap is ludicrous.

 

I think that's a rosie outlook. 2.2 WAR this year while staying relatively healthy. There's also a ton of risk that his bat drops below 120 wRC+, that he is injury prone and his defense continues to decline in his age 36 and 37 seasons. It might be a 50/50 chance he gives you 4 WAR total over the next 2 years.

[max silver]

2-4 WAR player at 25 per year for the next 2 years (assuming the 8M buyout for 2024 is done) is hardly an albatross. Yeah, I can see why Minnesota isn't hyped about spending that kind of money on him, given their current situation, but they're not gonna be so eager to move Donaldson that they take pennies on the dollar.

 

Donaldson killed baseballs this year and was pretty much at his career norms in K and walk rates. Oddly, his WAR was down due to a bad defensive year which I would be skeptical that he just drops off a cliff in that way. Donaldson could easily be a 4-5 WAR player next season.

 

Would I love to get rid of Grichuk and pick up Donaldson? Of course, but thinking it would be a 1 for 1 swap is ludicrous.

 

Donaldson was only bad as per the UZR metric. By both DRS and OAA he was right around average. We obviously can't ignore UZR completely but there is certainly food for thought when two other metrics show completely different results. I think as a part time third baseman and part time DH he could be a very valuable addition. If the club were to utilise Donaldson and Kirk primarily in the DH spot the lineup would really benefit greatly.

[Jays24]

Watching Brantley yesterday for HOU its so apparent why the Jays made a run at him. His LH bat would have been ideal for our line up.

 

2/32 was a solid deal for him at 34

 

As much as I love Brantley, we probably aren't getting Semien in that scenario.

[John_Havok]

Donaldson was only bad as per the UZR metric. By both DRS and OAA he was right around average. We obviously can't ignore UZR completely but there is certainly food for thought when two other metrics show completely different results. I think as a part time third baseman and part time DH he could be a very valuable addition. If the club were to utilise Donaldson and Kirk primarily in the DH spot the lineup would really benefit greatly.

 

yeah, defense does fluctuate a little based on # of defensive chances and other factors. Point being, he's not a black hole and I dont think it's reasonable to look straight at his 2.2 fWAR season and expect that is his new norm. in the short Season before he put up 1 fWAR in 100 PAs.

 

Checking his batted ball metrics he is top 3-10 in a ton of meaningful categories, like avg Exit velocity, barells per AB, hard hit rate etc. HIs bat is still lethal.

[max silver]

yeah, defense does fluctuate a little based on # of defensive chances and other factors. Point being, he's not a black hole and I dont think it's reasonable to look straight at his 2.2 fWAR season and expect that is his new norm. in the short Season before he put up 1 fWAR in 100 PAs.

 

Checking his batted ball metrics he is top 3-10 in a ton of meaningful categories, like avg Exit velocity, barells per AB, hard hit rate etc. HIs bat is still lethal.

 

His xWOBA was right in range with his career best seasons. He really seemed to have a s*** luck season as historically his WOBA and xWOBA have tended to follow within a few points of each other, but in 2021 the spread was 32 points.

 

Another point is that he put up the 2.2 WAR in only 135 games. With a little better health (maybe a tall order given his chronic calf issues and extensive injury history) and a bit more batted ball luck there is definitely potential for him to provide a lot more than the 2.2 WAR. I don't think a 4 win season is at all out of the question for Donaldson.

[John_Havok]

His xWOBA was right in range with his career best seasons. He really seemed to have a s*** luck season as historically his WOBA and xWOBA have tended to follow within a few points of each other, but in 2021 the spread was 32 points.

 

Another point is that he put up the 2.2 WAR in only 135 games. With a little better health (maybe a tall order given his chronic calf issues and extensive injury history) and a bit more batted ball luck there is definitely potential for him to provide a lot more than the 2.2 WAR. I don't think a 4 win season is at all out of the question for Donaldson.

 

Exactly. Seems like some think that Donaldson is some anchor preventing the team from being able to compete and win games. Honestly, his contract may have been negative value this year, but depending on WAR vs dollars and where that is this year, it’s not some sinkhole. He could actually provide positive contract value next season and it would not be a surprise, and to me it’s actually quite likely. He’s not some degraded asset desperately needing to be offloaded. Grichuk was .5 WAR for 10 million, Donaldson was 2.2 for double that. Neither of those is tremendous, but for some to act like trading these two for each other makes sense and would be equal value is not reflective of reality. Donaldson still helps you win games, he just costs more money to do it. Grichuk is far worse of an asset

[TwistedLogic]

Is anyone else surprised to find out that Bo Bichette was trash in 2 strike counts in 2021? I legitimately ran this search thinking he'd be Top 5 in the league for wRC+ with 2 strikes but he's actually among the worst active players in the league.

 

Good example of why the eye test is worthless in baseball.

 

[John_Havok]

Is anyone else surprised to find out that Bo Bichette was trash in 2 strike counts in 2021? I legitimately ran this search thinking he'd be Top 5 in the league for wRC+ with 2 strikes but he's actually among the worst active players in the league.

 

Good example of why the eye test is worthless in baseball.

 

 

Not worthless, just very very very open to bias.

[Laika]

Is anyone else surprised to find out that Bo Bichette was trash in 2 strike counts in 2021? I legitimately ran this search thinking he'd be Top 5 in the league for wRC+ with 2 strikes but he's actually among the worst active players in the league.

 

Good example of why the eye test is worthless in baseball.

 

 

I think you're misinterpreting what wRC+ is representing there. Most players are dogshit with 2 strikes. Fangraphs isn't like, recalculating wRC+ for only those ball-strike events, so it's not like a player with a 100 wRC+ in 0-2 counts is just average in 0-2 counts; they would actually be significantly above average in 0-2 counts and perhaps the best hitter ever in 0-2 counts. Frig, Vlad had a 36 wRC+ in 0-2 counts, I bet that is like 99th percentile.

 

George Springer had a -1 wRC+ in 1-2 counts and a 4 wRC+ in 0-2 counts

[TwistedLogic]

I think you're misinterpreting what wRC+ is representing there. Most players are dogshit with 2 strikes. Fangraphs isn't like, recalculating wRC+ for only those ball-strike events, so it's not like a player with a 100 wRC+ in 0-2 counts is just average in 0-2 counts; they would actually be significantly above average in 0-2 counts and perhaps the best hitter ever in 0-2 counts. Frig, Vlad had a 36 wRC+ in 0-2 counts, I bet that is like 99th percentile.

 

George Springer had a -1 wRC+ in 1-2 counts and a 4 wRC+ in 0-2 counts

 

Nah, I understand what you mean about wRC+ and I'm not misinterpreting how it's calculated here. Even relatively, Bichette was trash in two strike counts in 2021. The reason I even made the comment I did is because I ran a leaderboard search first and expected to find Bichette near the top of the list, only to find him on page 11 out of 13.

 

We're obviously talking about relatively small samples here and it probably doesn't mean anything for the future, but in the vacuum of 2021, Bichette was #307 out of 383 batters with at least 170 PAs in two strike counts. He hit for an atrocious 26 wRC+ in 357 plate appearances. That's all 0-2, 1-2, 2-2 and 3-2 counts combined and they account for over half his PAs.

 

Conversely, Vladdy ranked #63 in the league with a 72 wRC+ in two strike counts (304 PA), Semien was #30 with an 87 wRC+ (377 PA), and Espinal was the best Blue Jays batter to clutch up in two strike counts with a 100 wRC+ (120 PA). Espinal ranked 9th in the league, but the sample size was obviously much smaller and much more likely to regress.

 

Interestingly enough, the guy we all want on the team for 2022 was right behind Espinal. Jose Ramirez ranked #10 in the league with a a 99 wRC+ on two strikes (327 PA).

[Jimcanuck]

Bichette was certainly prone to chasing pitches out of the zone with 2 strikes. The good news is this is an aspect that gets better with experience.

[TwistedLogic]

After making my previous post, I wanted to know if Jose Ramirez's two-strike approach in 2021 was uncharacteristically good or just the norm for him so I expanded my search with FanGraphs' "Past 3 Calendar Years" filter (their biggest preset filter). Turns out, Ramirez is just elite at it in general. He's got a 91 wRC+ in two-strike plate appearances dating back to 2018. That's a 739 PA sample and is good for #9 in the league (min 300 PAs).

 

Similarly relevant for this upcoming offseason: Corey Seager (#17 in the league, 86 wRC+), Marcus Semien (#22 in the league, 81 wRC+) and Carlos Correa (#30 in the league, 80 wRC+) are all also elite in those situations.

 

 

---

 

Edit: Expanded again for curiosity's sake, this time all the way back to 2011. Ramirez jumps to #5 (93 wRC+ across 2036 PAs). Shockingly, nobody even comes close to Mike Trout's career 110 wRC+ over that span. Guy is an alien.

 

[Brownie19]

Bichette was certainly prone to chasing pitches out of the zone at any time. The good news is this is an aspect that gets better with experience.

 

FIFY. He's in the 3rd percentile for chase rate.

[Jimcanuck]

FIFY. He's in the 3rd percentile for chase rate.

 

ya, i thought it was more pronounced with 2 strikes though

[Brownie19]

ya, i thought it was more pronounced with 2 strikes though

 

I mean...he could be in the 1st percentile with 2 strikes and the 5th percentile with less than 2 strikes - and that averages out at the 3rd percentile overall

[Omar]

If you're looking for a dose of John Gibbons.....

 

 

Gibbons at 9:45 in.

[Spanky99]

If you're looking for a dose of John Gibbons.....

 

 

Gibbons at 9:45 in.

 

I enjoyed that... *he threw it through a barn door didn't he* then cackles. I'd love to have a few pints with Gibby!

[TwistedLogic]

Robbie Ray is the Cy Young.

 

[G-Snarls]

Clemens 21-7 with a 2.05 ERA and 292 strikeouts over 262 IP during the steroid era

 

LMFAO

 

Fight fire with fire I guess

[Orgfiller]

Clemens 21-7 with a 2.05 ERA and 292 strikeouts over 262 IP during the steroid era

 

LMFAO

 

Fight fire with fire I guess

 

At age 34. The Barry Bonds of starting pitching.

[Deadpool]

Robbie Ray is the Cy Young.

 

 

f*** Brad Mench for Robbing Halladay of a second Cy as a Blue Jay.

[wilko]

Robbie Ray is the Cy Young.

 

 

Clemens was insane with the Jays!

[Grant77]

f*** Brad Mench for Robbing Halladay of a second Cy as a Blue Jay.

 

Kevin Mench lol

[saskjayfan]

I think you're misinterpreting what wRC+ is representing there. Most players are dogshit with 2 strikes. Fangraphs isn't like, recalculating wRC+ for only those ball-strike events, so it's not like a player with a 100 wRC+ in 0-2 counts is just average in 0-2 counts; they would actually be significantly above average in 0-2 counts and perhaps the best hitter ever in 0-2 counts. Frig, Vlad had a 36 wRC+ in 0-2 counts, I bet that is like 99th percentile.

 

George Springer had a -1 wRC+ in 1-2 counts and a 4 wRC+ in 0-2 counts

 

A quick google and I found a tweet from 2018 that said league average with 2 strikes was .151/.159/225. I'm not sure what it was this year, but if you look at Bo's 2 strike numbers, he's better than that.

[Deadpool]

Kevin Mench lol

 

Oh, right, Brad Wilkerson was the other shitbag we had after that that became "Mencherson".

[Spanky99]

Clemens was insane with the Jays!

 

But... he mis-remembers.